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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

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01/30/2014 03:03 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Massive CME now visible by STEREO B:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

and SOHO C 2:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

and SOHO C3:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

At least a Type II halo and possibly geo-effective.

explosionahhhabomb
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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01/30/2014 03:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Simple27


Cool....a shorter loop posted at spaceweather.com:

[link to www.spaceweather.com]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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01/30/2014 03:15 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)


[link to www.youtube.com]



[link to www.youtube.com]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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01/30/2014 03:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SEEDS LASCO C2 movie:


[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

scared
:1/30-M6cme:

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 01/30/2014 03:59 PM
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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01/30/2014 05:34 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WOW! A Type III Halo CME with median velocity about 1000 km/s per CACTus Details:


[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

alone
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Steady

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01/30/2014 05:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Johan Håkon ‏@JohanHakon · 32 min
The Nothern Light in my area #2. Photo: @stianrekdal [link to twitter.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Luisport


I am unbelievably jealous that some people get to look up to that sky every day. Stunning.
I was always an unusual girl.My mother told me I had a chameleon soul, no moral compass pointing due north, no fixed personality; just an inner indecisiveness that was as wide and as wavering as the ocean... And if I said I didn't plan for it to turn out this way I'd be lying...
Because I was born to be the other woman. Who belonged to no one, who belonged to everyone. Who had nothing, who wanted everything, with a fire for every experience and an obsession for freedom that terrified me to the point that I couldn't even talk about it, and pushed me to a nomadic point of madness that both dazzled and dizzied me.
Luisport

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01/30/2014 05:38 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WOW! A Type III Halo CME with median velocity about 1000 km/s per CACTus Details:


[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

alone
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Geeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz!!! OGM!!! scream


Last Edited by Luisport on 01/30/2014 05:39 PM
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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01/30/2014 06:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Johan Håkon ‏@JohanHakon · 32 min
The Nothern Light in my area #2. Photo: @stianrekdal [link to twitter.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Luisport


I am unbelievably jealous that some people get to look up to that sky every day. Stunning.
 Quoting: Steady


Hello gorgeous! Good to see you here...
Luisport

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01/30/2014 06:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C4.8

Last Edited by Luisport on 01/30/2014 06:05 PM
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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01/30/2014 06:09 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Sun just got angry!!!!!!!!!!!!!

hiding
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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01/30/2014 06:10 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WOW! A Type III Halo CME with median velocity about 1000 km/s per CACTus Details:


[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

alone
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


abduct
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

User ID: 51311176
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01/30/2014 06:18 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WOW! A Type III Halo CME with median velocity about 1000 km/s per CACTus Details:


[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

alone
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


this earth bound?? hiding
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Simple27

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01/30/2014 06:24 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WOW! A Type III Halo CME with median velocity about 1000 km/s per CACTus Details:


[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

alone
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Is this the same clip?

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]



hiding
Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.

The world is a dangerous place to live; not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don't do anything about it.

The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.

You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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01/30/2014 06:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WOW! A Type III Halo CME with median velocity about 1000 km/s per CACTus Details:


[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

alone
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


this earth bound?? hiding
 Quoting: Goofy for God


A slight component it looks like.
Steady

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01/30/2014 06:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Johan Håkon ‏@JohanHakon · 32 min
The Nothern Light in my area #2. Photo: @stianrekdal [link to twitter.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Luisport


I am unbelievably jealous that some people get to look up to that sky every day. Stunning.
 Quoting: Steady


Hello gorgeous! Good to see you here...
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#

iamwith





jk my love

hf
I was always an unusual girl.My mother told me I had a chameleon soul, no moral compass pointing due north, no fixed personality; just an inner indecisiveness that was as wide and as wavering as the ocean... And if I said I didn't plan for it to turn out this way I'd be lying...
Because I was born to be the other woman. Who belonged to no one, who belonged to everyone. Who had nothing, who wanted everything, with a fire for every experience and an obsession for freedom that terrified me to the point that I couldn't even talk about it, and pushed me to a nomadic point of madness that both dazzled and dizzied me.
Hugh M Eye

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01/30/2014 08:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Even though NOAA measures it bigger, I think AR1967 may be slightly decaying. It's still big and volatile and could begin growing again....who know for sure?

AR1967 Showing Slight Decay, But Still BGD-
:1/31-1967_HMIIC:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 31 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Jan 2014
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1959 S23W88 241 0060 Hax 02 01 Alpha
1960 S15W82 235 0050 Hsx 02 02 Alpha
1965 S15W56 210 0010 Bxo 02 05 Beta
1967 S14E41 112 1190 Fkc 19 42 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1968 N09E41 112 0160 Eao 11 12 Beta-Gamma


AR1967 Magnetogram-
:1/31-1967mag:

Commerce Dept.'s .24 hr Summary...

Solar activity reached high levels when Region 1967 (S14E41,
Fkc/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period, an M6/2n flare
(R2 radio blackout) at 30/1611 UTC. This flare was accompanied by a
Tenflare (220 sfu) and a Type II radio emission (2161 km/s). An
asymmetric halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was subsequently observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery emerging from the southeast limb at
30/1624 UTC. Analysis suggests the CME was moving at approximately
1400-1500 km/s and may have an earthward component
. WSA-Enlil model run
is underway to determine the geoeffectiveness.


Earlier, the same region produced an M2/Sf flare that occurred at
30/0639 and an M1/Sf flare at 30/0807 UTC. A coronal mass ejection (CME)
associated with the M2 flare was first observed in Lasco C2 imagery at
30/0824 UTC. Analysis suggests this CME was moving around 500 km/s with
very little of the ejecta being Earth-directed. It has been included in
the model run mentioned above to determine the extent of any
interaction.

Region 1968 (N09E48,Eao/beta-gamma) exhibited mixed polarities in the
leader spots, yet remained fairly inactive throughout the period. The
remaining three numbered sunspot groups were stable or showing signs of
decay.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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01/30/2014 09:14 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NASA's CME Arrival prediction (more like a guess, haha)-

Event Issue Date: 2014-01-30 16:09:55.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2014-02-02 07:49:19.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 34 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.3 Re

This is very strange because it claims to have been issued 2 minutes before the M 6 flare's peak at 16:11 UTC! Also I checked for it earlier and there were no arrivals listed until just recently. Since those turds never identify any CMEs, this could be for the CME from the M2 event at 06:39 UTC. Thirdly, if NOAA's CME velocity of 14-1500 km/s (or for that matter Cactus' 949 km/s) is close to correct, than this arrival estimate is a bit on the slow side.

I swear sometimes I think they still use the old 'dartboard method' and save their supercomputers for useful stuff like porn and video games. I notice sometimes they issue more than one prediction for the same event in order to cover their arses, so we'll have to check back for any updates.

CACTus Details of the much slower CME associated with the M2 event:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

Cue the Dancing Chimps!
dance5adance5adance

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 01/30/2014 09:17 PM
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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01/30/2014 09:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NOAA's Enlil model (which don't look right to me either) seems to forecast a direct hit arrival on Feb. 1 @ 16:30-19:00 UTC.

ENLIL Prediction Model:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

:1/31-EnlilCME:
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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01/30/2014 10:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WOW! A Type III Halo CME with median velocity about 1000 km/s per CACTus Details:


[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

alone
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


That's normal, because were 2 events almost simultaneously, but with some distance between them, see on velocity diagram and note that there are 2 particle fluxes and the earth in middle them.
Isis One

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01/30/2014 11:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Massive CME now visible by STEREO B:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

and SOHO C 2:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

and SOHO C3:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

At least a Type II halo and possibly geo-effective.

explosionahhhabomb
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


oh yeah, we're gonna get some of that, thought so even before I read your type II halo above.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Simple27

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01/31/2014 01:25 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]


Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.

The world is a dangerous place to live; not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don't do anything about it.

The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.

You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.
mtn_mang

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01/31/2014 08:32 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning, sol' patrol!
Luisport

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01/31/2014 08:34 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning, sol' patrol!
 Quoting: mtn_mang


hi
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2014 08:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
sunspot 1967 is going interesting to watch the next few days
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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01/31/2014 09:17 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Mystery Doughnut on Mars




1rof1
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2014 09:25 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning, sol' patrol!
 Quoting: mtn_mang


Howdy, MM, got your sol-dancing shoes on today?

ratdancechuckle
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2014 09:48 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 562
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 31 1325 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Feb 01: None (Below G1) Feb 02: G1 (Minor) Feb 03: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA's 'Discussion' (NewSpeak translation-more of a description really) states CME arrival midday to late Feb. 2nd. This contradicts their Enlil model and their velocity estimate of 1500 km/s.

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels when Region 1967 (S14E29,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the largest flare of the period, an M6/2n
flare (R2 radio blackout) at 30/1611 UTC. This flare was accompanied by
a Tenflare (220 sfu) and a Type II radio emission (2161 km/s). An
asymmetric halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was subsequently observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery emerging from the southeast limb at
30/1624 UTC. WSA-ENLIL model analysis indicates a glancing blow from
the CME is likely mid to late on 02 February.
Region 1967 had some
consolidation within its intermediate area, while Region 1968 (N10E29,
Eai/beta) appeared to have slight growth in its intermediate spots.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Glancing Blow?
:1/31-EnlilCME:

14 M-flares from AR1967 since 00:01 UTC Jan. 27th! I think we're overdue for a big X-flare....

Flare list:
[link to www.lmsal.com]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2014 09:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Feb 01: None (Below G1) Feb 02: G1 (Minor) Feb 03: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT


 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


its looking interesting


yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee


The grid is going to fry
mtn_mang

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01/31/2014 10:37 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning, sol' patrol!
 Quoting: mtn_mang


Howdy, MM, got your sol-dancing shoes on today?

ratdancechuckle
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


you know it! soon...after i do these dumb taxes :/
Luisport

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01/31/2014 10:41 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C9.1