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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Luisport

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01/31/2014 08:34 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning, sol' patrol!
 Quoting: mtn_mang


hi
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2014 08:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
sunspot 1967 is going interesting to watch the next few days
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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01/31/2014 09:17 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Mystery Doughnut on Mars




1rof1
1 John 4:18
There is no fear in love; but perfect love casts out fear, because fear involves torment
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2014 09:25 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning, sol' patrol!
 Quoting: mtn_mang


Howdy, MM, got your sol-dancing shoes on today?

ratdancechuckle
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2014 09:48 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 562
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 31 1325 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Feb 01: None (Below G1) Feb 02: G1 (Minor) Feb 03: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA's 'Discussion' (NewSpeak translation-more of a description really) states CME arrival midday to late Feb. 2nd. This contradicts their Enlil model and their velocity estimate of 1500 km/s.

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels when Region 1967 (S14E29,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the largest flare of the period, an M6/2n
flare (R2 radio blackout) at 30/1611 UTC. This flare was accompanied by
a Tenflare (220 sfu) and a Type II radio emission (2161 km/s). An
asymmetric halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was subsequently observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery emerging from the southeast limb at
30/1624 UTC. WSA-ENLIL model analysis indicates a glancing blow from
the CME is likely mid to late on 02 February.
Region 1967 had some
consolidation within its intermediate area, while Region 1968 (N10E29,
Eai/beta) appeared to have slight growth in its intermediate spots.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Glancing Blow?
:1/31-EnlilCME:

14 M-flares from AR1967 since 00:01 UTC Jan. 27th! I think we're overdue for a big X-flare....

Flare list:
[link to www.lmsal.com]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2014 09:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Feb 01: None (Below G1) Feb 02: G1 (Minor) Feb 03: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT


 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


its looking interesting


yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee


The grid is going to fry
mtn_mang

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01/31/2014 10:37 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning, sol' patrol!
 Quoting: mtn_mang


Howdy, MM, got your sol-dancing shoes on today?

ratdancechuckle
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


you know it! soon...after i do these dumb taxes :/
Luisport

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01/31/2014 10:41 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C9.1
Luisport

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01/31/2014 10:42 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C9.1
 Quoting: Luisport


M1.1
banana2

Last Edited by Luisport on 01/31/2014 10:43 AM
Kael

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01/31/2014 10:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C9.1
 Quoting: Luisport


M1.1
banana2
 Quoting: Luisport


Awesome!
"Thou we are not now that strength which in old days moved earth and heaven that which we are, we are.
One equal temper of heroic hearts made weak by time and fate but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yield"
mtn_mang

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01/31/2014 10:55 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the sun quivers at the prospect of the mighty flare dance. this one was from 1968, interesting
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2014 11:18 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the sun quivers at the prospect of the mighty flare dance. this one was from 1968, interesting
 Quoting: mtn_mang


Good call! Both regions are closely connected so we may see a response from 1967 soon.

GONG H-alpha movie:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2014 12:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ARs 1968 & 1967 Still Well-connected-
:AR68-67:

As both regions are approaching the 30 degree East mark, any CMEs for the next 6 days or more will likely be Earth-directed.

EUVI Heliographic:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

M1.1 EVE X-ray image:

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

User ID: 51311176
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01/31/2014 12:35 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ARs 1968 & 1967 Still Well-connected-
:AR68-67:

As both regions are approaching the 30 degree East mark, any CMEs for the next 6 days or more will likely be Earth-directed.

EUVI Heliographic:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

M1.1 EVE X-ray image:

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


hiding
1 John 4:18
There is no fear in love; but perfect love casts out fear, because fear involves torment
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2014 12:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ARs 1968 & 1967 Still Well-connected-
:AR68-67:

As both regions are approaching the 30 degree East mark, any CMEs for the next 6 days or more will likely be Earth-directed.

EUVI Heliographic:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

M1.1 EVE X-ray image:

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Nice pic hugh{optimum judgment}
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2014 12:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

interaction!
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2014 01:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I only identified 3 important delta configurations in sunspot AR1967, and according their importance have given a number, number "1" is the stronger and more complex of them because is interacting with leader spot, "2" is less strong, but important because each sunspot have strong magnetic fields, and "3" is the weaker of three.

[link to img716.imageshack.us]
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2014 01:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solarsoft-SDO close-up movie of M1.1 flare:

[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]

A small, somewhat faint CME seen on SOHO C2 images:

[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2014 01:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This is the simulation that guys of spacenvironment did for CME of M1.1 flare

[link to img819.imageshack.us]
Kael

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01/31/2014 03:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We had another flare but seems that data is missing
[link to www.solarham.net]
"Thou we are not now that strength which in old days moved earth and heaven that which we are, we are.
One equal temper of heroic hearts made weak by time and fate but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yield"
Luisport

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01/31/2014 03:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we miss something here... [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2014 03:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We had another flare but seems that data is missing
[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: Kael


[link to halpha.nso.edu]
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2014 04:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
My guess is that it was a C7 flare from1967. The EVE X-ray flux is about 3 notches higher than the GOES-15. I don't know why they're calibrated differently....just subtract 3 hash-marks.

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

The SOHO Celias x-ray flux is more accurate, but it hasn't updated yet.

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

We'll have to watch for a CME as the data comes in later.

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 01/31/2014 04:46 PM
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2014 04:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The CME from the M1.1 may be slightly Earth-directed, but it's not as dense or energetic as yesterday's blast.

SEEDS movie of M1 CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

explosionahhhabomb
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
SnowboardingAlien

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01/31/2014 04:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we miss something here... [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Luisport


so strong it broke the meter?
I look up at the sky, and wonder where I am on earth. Then I wonder where I am in the solar system. Then I wonder where I am in the galaxy. Then I wonder where I am in the universe. Then I wonder what universe am I in.
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2014 05:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We had another flare but seems that data is missing
[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: Kael


we miss something here... [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Luisport


That flare was around C4.8, see image below

[link to sol.spacenvironment.net]
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2014 06:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We had another flare but seems that data is missing
[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: Kael


we miss something here... [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Luisport


That flare was around C4.8, see image below

[link to sol.spacenvironment.net]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28239113


I did a mistake on my reading, the flare was C5.7 at least.
Better the image below that is .pdf file (better resolution)

[link to sol.spacenvironment.net]
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2014 08:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C9.0 and growing
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2014 08:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M-flare rising now!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

siren2siren2siren2
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2014 08:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M-flare rising now!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

siren2siren2siren2
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


M1.0 and in decaying

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