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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Luisport

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01/31/2014 10:42 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C9.1
 Quoting: Luisport


M1.1
banana2

Last Edited by Luisport on 01/31/2014 10:43 AM
Kael

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01/31/2014 10:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C9.1
 Quoting: Luisport


M1.1
banana2
 Quoting: Luisport


Awesome!
"Thou we are not now that strength which in old days moved earth and heaven that which we are, we are.
One equal temper of heroic hearts made weak by time and fate but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yield"
mtn_mang

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01/31/2014 10:55 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the sun quivers at the prospect of the mighty flare dance. this one was from 1968, interesting
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2014 11:18 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the sun quivers at the prospect of the mighty flare dance. this one was from 1968, interesting
 Quoting: mtn_mang


Good call! Both regions are closely connected so we may see a response from 1967 soon.

GONG H-alpha movie:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2014 12:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ARs 1968 & 1967 Still Well-connected-
:AR68-67:

As both regions are approaching the 30 degree East mark, any CMEs for the next 6 days or more will likely be Earth-directed.

EUVI Heliographic:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

M1.1 EVE X-ray image:

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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01/31/2014 12:35 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ARs 1968 & 1967 Still Well-connected-
:AR68-67:

As both regions are approaching the 30 degree East mark, any CMEs for the next 6 days or more will likely be Earth-directed.

EUVI Heliographic:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

M1.1 EVE X-ray image:

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


hiding
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2014 12:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ARs 1968 & 1967 Still Well-connected-
:AR68-67:

As both regions are approaching the 30 degree East mark, any CMEs for the next 6 days or more will likely be Earth-directed.

EUVI Heliographic:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

M1.1 EVE X-ray image:

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Nice pic hugh{optimum judgment}
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2014 12:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

interaction!
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2014 01:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I only identified 3 important delta configurations in sunspot AR1967, and according their importance have given a number, number "1" is the stronger and more complex of them because is interacting with leader spot, "2" is less strong, but important because each sunspot have strong magnetic fields, and "3" is the weaker of three.

[link to img716.imageshack.us]
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2014 01:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solarsoft-SDO close-up movie of M1.1 flare:

[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]

A small, somewhat faint CME seen on SOHO C2 images:

[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2014 01:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This is the simulation that guys of spacenvironment did for CME of M1.1 flare

[link to img819.imageshack.us]
Kael

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01/31/2014 03:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We had another flare but seems that data is missing
[link to www.solarham.net]
"Thou we are not now that strength which in old days moved earth and heaven that which we are, we are.
One equal temper of heroic hearts made weak by time and fate but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yield"
Luisport

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01/31/2014 03:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we miss something here... [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2014 03:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We had another flare but seems that data is missing
[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: Kael


[link to halpha.nso.edu]
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2014 04:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
My guess is that it was a C7 flare from1967. The EVE X-ray flux is about 3 notches higher than the GOES-15. I don't know why they're calibrated differently....just subtract 3 hash-marks.

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

The SOHO Celias x-ray flux is more accurate, but it hasn't updated yet.

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

We'll have to watch for a CME as the data comes in later.

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 01/31/2014 04:46 PM
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2014 04:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The CME from the M1.1 may be slightly Earth-directed, but it's not as dense or energetic as yesterday's blast.

SEEDS movie of M1 CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

explosionahhhabomb
SnowboardingAlien

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01/31/2014 04:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we miss something here... [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Luisport


so strong it broke the meter?
I look up at the sky, and wonder where I am on earth. Then I wonder where I am in the solar system. Then I wonder where I am in the galaxy. Then I wonder where I am in the universe. Then I wonder what universe am I in.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 28239113
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01/31/2014 05:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We had another flare but seems that data is missing
[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: Kael


we miss something here... [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Luisport


That flare was around C4.8, see image below

[link to sol.spacenvironment.net]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 28239113
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01/31/2014 06:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We had another flare but seems that data is missing
[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: Kael


we miss something here... [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Luisport


That flare was around C4.8, see image below

[link to sol.spacenvironment.net]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28239113


I did a mistake on my reading, the flare was C5.7 at least.
Better the image below that is .pdf file (better resolution)

[link to sol.spacenvironment.net]
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2014 08:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C9.0 and growing
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2014 08:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M-flare rising now!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

siren2siren2siren2
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2014 08:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M-flare rising now!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

siren2siren2siren2
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


M1.0 and in decaying
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2014 08:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M-flare rising now!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

siren2siren2siren2
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


AR1967....

EVE:
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

GONG H-alpha:
[link to halpha.nso.edu]
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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01/31/2014 08:38 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
GLP effect.
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2014 08:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1967 Smaller But Uglier-
:2/1-1967morph:

Commerce Dept.'s 24 hr Summary...

Solar activity reached moderate levels with an M1 flare from Region 1968
(N10E29, Eai/beta-gamma) at 31/1542 UTC. The flare was accompanied by
dimming in SDO/AIA 193 imagery between 31/1535-1612 UTC to the southeast
of the region and between 31/1624-1705 UTC north of the region. A
coronal mass ejection (CME) was visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery emerging from the southeast at approximately 31/1602 UTC
followed by a second eruption to the northeast at 31/1624 UTC.

Preliminary analysis suggested the eruption to the northeast was moving
at approximately 400-500 km/s. Further analysis and modeling will be
undertaken once sufficient coronagraph imagery becomes available.
Consolidation and flux emergence was evident in the intermediate portion
of Region 1967 (S14E29, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) while Region 1968 grew
slightly and developed a beta-gamma configuration.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1968 Still Alive & Kicking-
:2/1-AR1968:


....and then there was two left standing.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 32 Issued at 0030Z on 01 Feb 2014
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 31 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 31/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1967 S14E29 112 1000 Fkc 18 49 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1968 N10E29 112 0210 Eai 11 18 Beta-Gamma


Finally....an explanation, sort of...

GeoSpace .Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (01 Feb).
A glancing blow from the 30 Jan CME is expected to arrive around mid-day
on day 2 (02 Feb) causing unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor)
conditions. Three CME characterizations and WSA-Enlil model runs were
conducted. The run with the most westerly origin brought the CME in
late on 01 Feb, representing the earliest possible arrival. The run
with the lowest speed brought the CME in almost 24 hours later.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1967 Magnetogram-(check out the 'umbral dot' in the big spot)
:2/1-1967mag:
Spittin'Cesium

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01/31/2014 09:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1967 Smaller But Uglier-
:2/1-1967morph:

Commerce Dept.'s 24 hr Summary...

Solar activity reached moderate levels with an M1 flare from Region 1968
(N10E29, Eai/beta-gamma) at 31/1542 UTC. The flare was accompanied by
dimming in SDO/AIA 193 imagery between 31/1535-1612 UTC to the southeast
of the region and between 31/1624-1705 UTC north of the region. A
coronal mass ejection (CME) was visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery emerging from the southeast at approximately 31/1602 UTC
followed by a second eruption to the northeast at 31/1624 UTC.

Preliminary analysis suggested the eruption to the northeast was moving
at approximately 400-500 km/s. Further analysis and modeling will be
undertaken once sufficient coronagraph imagery becomes available.
Consolidation and flux emergence was evident in the intermediate portion
of Region 1967 (S14E29, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) while Region 1968 grew
slightly and developed a beta-gamma configuration.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1968 Still Alive & Kicking-
:2/1-AR1968:


....and then there was two left standing.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 32 Issued at 0030Z on 01 Feb 2014
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 31 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 31/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1967 S14E29 112 1000 Fkc 18 49 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1968 N10E29 112 0210 Eai 11 18 Beta-Gamma


Finally....an explanation, sort of...

GeoSpace .Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (01 Feb).
A glancing blow from the 30 Jan CME is expected to arrive around mid-day
on day 2 (02 Feb) causing unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor)
conditions. Three CME characterizations and WSA-Enlil model runs were
conducted. The run with the most westerly origin brought the CME in
late on 01 Feb, representing the earliest possible arrival. The run
with the lowest speed brought the CME in almost 24 hours later.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1967 Magnetogram-(check out the 'umbral dot' in the big spot)
:2/1-1967mag:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Whoa :2/1-1967mag: !?

Incredible example!
Wow...Thank You Hugh!!! : )

sun hf
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2014 10:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WTF is that
Isis One

User ID: 14343270
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01/31/2014 10:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I only identified 3 important delta configurations in sunspot AR1967, and according their importance have given a number, number "1" is the stronger and more complex of them because is interacting with leader spot, "2" is less strong, but important because each sunspot have strong magnetic fields, and "3" is the weaker of three.

[link to img716.imageshack.us]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28239113


excellent tutorial thanks D!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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01/31/2014 10:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WTF is that
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 32031551


Lol. Wut?
Isis One

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01/31/2014 10:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WTF is that
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 32031551


Lol. Wut?
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


the umbral dot

Last Edited by Isis One on 01/31/2014 10:56 PM
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

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