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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Kael

User ID: 1451069
Romania
01/31/2014 03:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We had another flare but seems that data is missing
[link to www.solarham.net]
"Thou we are not now that strength which in old days moved earth and heaven that which we are, we are.
One equal temper of heroic hearts made weak by time and fate but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yield"
Luisport

User ID: 53670822
Portugal
01/31/2014 03:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we miss something here... [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 17754867
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01/31/2014 03:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We had another flare but seems that data is missing
[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: Kael


[link to halpha.nso.edu]
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 49970192
United States
01/31/2014 04:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
My guess is that it was a C7 flare from1967. The EVE X-ray flux is about 3 notches higher than the GOES-15. I don't know why they're calibrated differently....just subtract 3 hash-marks.

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

The SOHO Celias x-ray flux is more accurate, but it hasn't updated yet.

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

We'll have to watch for a CME as the data comes in later.

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 01/31/2014 04:46 PM
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2014 04:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The CME from the M1.1 may be slightly Earth-directed, but it's not as dense or energetic as yesterday's blast.

SEEDS movie of M1 CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

explosionahhhabomb
SnowboardingAlien

User ID: 42938467
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01/31/2014 04:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we miss something here... [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Luisport


so strong it broke the meter?
I look up at the sky, and wonder where I am on earth. Then I wonder where I am in the solar system. Then I wonder where I am in the galaxy. Then I wonder where I am in the universe.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 28239113
Venezuela
01/31/2014 05:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We had another flare but seems that data is missing
[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: Kael


we miss something here... [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Luisport


That flare was around C4.8, see image below

[link to sol.spacenvironment.net]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 28239113
Venezuela
01/31/2014 06:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We had another flare but seems that data is missing
[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: Kael


we miss something here... [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Luisport


That flare was around C4.8, see image below

[link to sol.spacenvironment.net]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28239113


I did a mistake on my reading, the flare was C5.7 at least.
Better the image below that is .pdf file (better resolution)

[link to sol.spacenvironment.net]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 28239113
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01/31/2014 08:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C9.0 and growing
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 49970192
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01/31/2014 08:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M-flare rising now!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

siren2siren2siren2
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 28239113
Venezuela
01/31/2014 08:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M-flare rising now!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

siren2siren2siren2
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


M1.0 and in decaying
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 49970192
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01/31/2014 08:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M-flare rising now!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

siren2siren2siren2
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


AR1967....

EVE:
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

GONG H-alpha:
[link to halpha.nso.edu]
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

User ID: 43407308
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01/31/2014 08:38 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
GLP effect.
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 49970192
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01/31/2014 08:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1967 Smaller But Uglier-
:2/1-1967morph:

Commerce Dept.'s 24 hr Summary...

Solar activity reached moderate levels with an M1 flare from Region 1968
(N10E29, Eai/beta-gamma) at 31/1542 UTC. The flare was accompanied by
dimming in SDO/AIA 193 imagery between 31/1535-1612 UTC to the southeast
of the region and between 31/1624-1705 UTC north of the region. A
coronal mass ejection (CME) was visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery emerging from the southeast at approximately 31/1602 UTC
followed by a second eruption to the northeast at 31/1624 UTC.

Preliminary analysis suggested the eruption to the northeast was moving
at approximately 400-500 km/s. Further analysis and modeling will be
undertaken once sufficient coronagraph imagery becomes available.
Consolidation and flux emergence was evident in the intermediate portion
of Region 1967 (S14E29, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) while Region 1968 grew
slightly and developed a beta-gamma configuration.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1968 Still Alive & Kicking-
:2/1-AR1968:


....and then there was two left standing.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 32 Issued at 0030Z on 01 Feb 2014
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 31 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 31/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1967 S14E29 112 1000 Fkc 18 49 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1968 N10E29 112 0210 Eai 11 18 Beta-Gamma


Finally....an explanation, sort of...

GeoSpace .Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (01 Feb).
A glancing blow from the 30 Jan CME is expected to arrive around mid-day
on day 2 (02 Feb) causing unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor)
conditions. Three CME characterizations and WSA-Enlil model runs were
conducted. The run with the most westerly origin brought the CME in
late on 01 Feb, representing the earliest possible arrival. The run
with the lowest speed brought the CME in almost 24 hours later.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1967 Magnetogram-(check out the 'umbral dot' in the big spot)
:2/1-1967mag:
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 49823879
United Kingdom
01/31/2014 09:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1967 Smaller But Uglier-
:2/1-1967morph:

Commerce Dept.'s 24 hr Summary...

Solar activity reached moderate levels with an M1 flare from Region 1968
(N10E29, Eai/beta-gamma) at 31/1542 UTC. The flare was accompanied by
dimming in SDO/AIA 193 imagery between 31/1535-1612 UTC to the southeast
of the region and between 31/1624-1705 UTC north of the region. A
coronal mass ejection (CME) was visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery emerging from the southeast at approximately 31/1602 UTC
followed by a second eruption to the northeast at 31/1624 UTC.

Preliminary analysis suggested the eruption to the northeast was moving
at approximately 400-500 km/s. Further analysis and modeling will be
undertaken once sufficient coronagraph imagery becomes available.
Consolidation and flux emergence was evident in the intermediate portion
of Region 1967 (S14E29, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) while Region 1968 grew
slightly and developed a beta-gamma configuration.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1968 Still Alive & Kicking-
:2/1-AR1968:


....and then there was two left standing.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 32 Issued at 0030Z on 01 Feb 2014
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 31 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 31/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1967 S14E29 112 1000 Fkc 18 49 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1968 N10E29 112 0210 Eai 11 18 Beta-Gamma


Finally....an explanation, sort of...

GeoSpace .Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (01 Feb).
A glancing blow from the 30 Jan CME is expected to arrive around mid-day
on day 2 (02 Feb) causing unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor)
conditions. Three CME characterizations and WSA-Enlil model runs were
conducted. The run with the most westerly origin brought the CME in
late on 01 Feb, representing the earliest possible arrival. The run
with the lowest speed brought the CME in almost 24 hours later.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1967 Magnetogram-(check out the 'umbral dot' in the big spot)
:2/1-1967mag:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Whoa :2/1-1967mag: !?

Incredible example!
Wow...Thank You Hugh!!! : )

sun hf
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 32031551
United States
01/31/2014 10:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WTF is that
Isis One

User ID: 14343270
United States
01/31/2014 10:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I only identified 3 important delta configurations in sunspot AR1967, and according their importance have given a number, number "1" is the stronger and more complex of them because is interacting with leader spot, "2" is less strong, but important because each sunspot have strong magnetic fields, and "3" is the weaker of three.

[link to img716.imageshack.us]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28239113


excellent tutorial thanks D!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

User ID: 40030115
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01/31/2014 10:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WTF is that
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 32031551


Lol. Wut?
Isis One

User ID: 14343270
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01/31/2014 10:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WTF is that
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 32031551


Lol. Wut?
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


the umbral dot

Last Edited by Isis One on 01/31/2014 10:56 PM
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

User ID: 53554050
United States
01/31/2014 11:06 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WTF is that
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 32031551


Lol. Wut?
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


the umbral dot
 Quoting: Isis One


Oh ok. Lol
Isis One

User ID: 14343270
United States
01/31/2014 11:18 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
uh hum.....

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 28239113
Venezuela
02/01/2014 12:30 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Outlook
27 January - 22 February 2014
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels overall. Moderate to high levels are
possible from 27 January through 09 February with the return of old Regions 1946 and 1944.
The greater than 10 MeV particle flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at
background levels during the forecast period. The threat of a solar energetic particle event is
expected to be greatest between 03-10 February as old Region 1944 crosses the central meridian
into a more potentially geoeffective position.
The greater than 2 MeV particle flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at low to
moderate levels through most of the period, with the exception of 03-05 February when a chance
for high levels are expected due to recurrence.2 SWPC PRF 2004 27 January 2014
The geomagnetic field is expected to begin the period at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance
for active periods on 27-28 January, in response to a small coronal hole high speed stream. By 29
January, a return to mostly quiet conditions is expected. Recurrent high speed solar wind streams
are expected to bring unsettled conditions with a chance for active levels on 07-08 February and
17-18 February. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of the period
in the absence of transient features.


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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02/01/2014 01:13 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I believe that sunspot number reached on January will give a new maximum sunspot peak on Solar Cycle Progression, the previous was on 2011-11 with 96.7 sunspot. I mean for the shown on solen's table at bottom of page.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
[link to www.solen.info]
Anonymous Coward
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02/01/2014 02:48 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M3.0 from AR1967

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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02/01/2014 02:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28239113


[link to halpha.nso.edu]
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

User ID: 44557506
United States
02/01/2014 02:52 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28239113


Awesome! Thanks.
Anonymous Coward
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02/01/2014 02:55 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28239113


[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28239113


It looks like a filament also was released
Anonymous Coward
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02/01/2014 03:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28239113


Awesome! Thanks.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


We have to wait awhile for Stereo's updates, meanwhile I did a find of a new delta configuration on AR1967.

[link to img812.imageshack.us]
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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02/01/2014 03:11 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28239113


Awesome! Thanks.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


We have to wait awhile for Stereo's updates, meanwhile I did a find of a new delta configuration on AR1967.

[link to img812.imageshack.us]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28239113


Yep. Looks like it!
Anonymous Coward
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02/01/2014 03:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I leave the watch of sun to you GeoMag, have a nice sunrise, byehf

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