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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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12/17/2014 01:39 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
omg does this count as the first earth directed CME from former 2192?!?!?!?!
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
2242 looks a little mean right now.

[link to services.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
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Sol Reflector

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Yes, we have an Earth-directed CME. Very little data is available. STEREO A&B are out of commission and SOHO takes 2 or 3 8-hour naps a day. NASA is still asleep so maybe the CME could come back after the holidays.

Best pic available at this time-
:12/17-CME:
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shadahooch-e

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
December 17, 2014 @ 05:00 UTC

Strong Solar Flare Observed (M8.7)
Solar activity reached high levels early Wednesday morning. Expanding sunspot 2242, now located in a geoeffective position, produced a strong M8.7 solar flare peaking at 04:50 UTC. The event was associated with a 7 minute long Radio Burst (TenFlare) measuring 320 solar flux units (SFU). Region 2242, along with region 2241, will each remain a threat for additional moderate to strong solar flares. More updates regarding a possible CME once additional information becomes available. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest updates.
[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: Simple27


Good night work Agent 27!
My dreams are worthless, my plans are dust, my goals are impossible, unless they are followed by action containing integrity as its standard.
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Simple27


Thanks for posting these vids, Simple! This event happened as soon as I went to sleep last night.

NOAA's update on Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels. Region 2242 (S17E05,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced two M-class events, including an M1 flare
at 17/0110 UTC and an M8/2b flare at 17/0451 UTC, which was the largest
event of the period. The M8 flare had associated Type II (est speed 910
km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, as well as a 320 sfu Ten centimeter
radio burst. Lack of LASCO coronagraph imagery is making analysis
difficult, but initial indications suggest the majority of the ejecta
from the coronal mass ejection (CME) has a mostly southerly trajectory,
just off the Sun/Earth plane. Early speed estimates indicate
approximately 650 km/s, which would put an estimated arrival at Earth on
or about 21 Dec
.
Further analysis will be accomplished as more data
becomes available.
Region 2242 continued to exhibit signs of growth as well as separation
in the leader spots while maintaining its delta configuration across an
east-west polarity inversion line.

Region 2241 (S09E11, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced an M1 flare at 17/0150 UTC
as well as several C-class flares during the period. This region also
exhibited growth as well as some consolidation in its leader spots. The
remaining spot groups were either stable or showed signs of decay.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

My guess is a much faster speed, closer to 1000 km/s. More data will trickle in later (I hope).
Sol Reflector
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Here's the SEEDS C2 movie of the Earth-bound CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]


explosionahhhabomb
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Simple27

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
C9.8

[link to www.lmsal.com]

[link to services.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.solarham.net]
~*Ride the Wave*~
Sol Reflector

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Another strong flare from 2241.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

[link to www.solarham.net]

siren2siren2siren2
Sol Reflector
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
NOAA has changed their predicted CME arrival from the 21st to the 19th.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA shows a weak glancing blow:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Animations of C2 image of CME from the M8.7:

[link to alshamess.ifa.hawaii.edu]

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

If this had been a limb event it would surely have been an X-flare. I can't believe the CME would only be 5-600 km/s. This tandem of strong events from 2 side-by-side ARs could set us up for a 'perfect storm' if we get multiple CMEs. I predict an exciting week ahead.

[link to sol24.net]
Sol Reflector
Simple27

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Another strong flare from 2241.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

[link to www.solarham.net]

siren2siren2siren2
 Quoting: Sol Reflector


Solar flare 2014/12/17 S10E23(2241) M1.4. 18:54:00-19:20:00UT
peaking at 19:01:00UT. SolarSoft..AIA171 GOES15XRays
[link to twitter.com (secure)]
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Simple27

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12/17/2014 05:32 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
NOAA has changed their predicted CME arrival from the 21st to the 19th.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA shows a weak glancing blow:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Animations of C2 image of CME from the M8.7:

[link to alshamess.ifa.hawaii.edu]

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

If this had been a limb event it would surely have been an X-flare. I can't believe the CME would only be 5-600 km/s. This tandem of strong events from 2 side-by-side ARs could set us up for a 'perfect storm' if we get multiple CMEs. I predict an exciting week ahead.

[link to sol24.net]
 Quoting: Sol Reflector



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

hiding
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shadahooch-e

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
The Voyager space probe detects Solar Tsunami waves in interstellar space-

A "tsunami wave" occurs when the sun emits a coronal mass ejection, throwing out a magnetic cloud of plasma from its surface. This generates a wave of pressure. When the wave runs into the interstellar plasma -- the charged particles found in the space between the stars -- a shock wave results that perturbs the plasma.

"The tsunami causes the ionized gas that is out there to resonate -- "sing" or vibrate like a bell," said Ed Stone, project scientist for the Voyager mission based at California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

[link to www.jpl.nasa.gov]



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Sol Reflector


NASA has just announced their Voyager 1 probe which is currently into its 25th plus year of the mission to "interstellar space" and is now outside the solar system's Heliosphere--has detected 3 "space tsunami waves"--with one of the 3 being especially powerful, earth-bound and on-going in duration. You can link to the article for more information (above) There is NO information as to when earth can expect the effects of these waves, nor if NASA deems them a threat to earth or our satellites.


Is this the once debated nova waves coming in, very interesting.



Last Edited by shadasonic on 12/17/2014 07:37 PM
My dreams are worthless, my plans are dust, my goals are impossible, unless they are followed by action containing integrity as its standard.
Simple27

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12/17/2014 07:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


Voyager Buffeted by Interstellar 'Tsunami Waves'

This is the third shock wave that Voyager 1 has experienced. The first event was in October to November of 2012, and the second wave in April to May of 2013 revealed an even higher plasma density. Voyager 1 detected the most recent event in February, and it is still going on as of November data. The spacecraft has moved outward 250 million miles (400 million kilometers) during the third event.

It is unclear to researchers what the unusual longevity of this particular wave may mean. They are also uncertain as to how fast the wave is moving or how broad a region it covers.

The second tsunami wave helped researchers determine in 2013 that Voyager 1 had left the heliosphere, the bubble created by the solar wind encompassing the sun and the planets in our solar system. Denser plasma "rings" at a higher frequency, and the medium that Voyager flew through, was 40 times denser than what had been previously measured. This was key to the conclusion that Voyager had entered a frontier where no spacecraft had gone before: interstellar space.

"The density of the plasma is higher the farther Voyager goes," Stone said. "Is that because the interstellar medium is denser as Voyager moves away from the heliosphere, or is it from the shock wave itself? We don't know yet."

[link to science.nasa.gov]

blink
 Quoting: Simple27

~*Ride the Wave*~
Sol Reflector

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
The Voyager space probe detects Solar Tsunami waves in interstellar space-

A "tsunami wave" occurs when the sun emits a coronal mass ejection, throwing out a magnetic cloud of plasma from its surface. This generates a wave of pressure. When the wave runs into the interstellar plasma -- the charged particles found in the space between the stars -- a shock wave results that perturbs the plasma.

"The tsunami causes the ionized gas that is out there to resonate -- "sing" or vibrate like a bell," said Ed Stone, project scientist for the Voyager mission based at California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

[link to www.jpl.nasa.gov]



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Sol Reflector


NASA has just announced their Voyager 1 probe which is currently into its 25th plus year of the mission to "interstellar space" and is now outside the solar system's Heliosphere--has detected 3 "space tsunami waves"--with one of the 3 being especially powerful, earth-bound and on-going in duration. You can link to the article for more information (above) There is NO information as to when earth can expect the effects of these waves, nor if NASA deems them a threat to earth or our satellites.


Is this the once debated nova waves coming in, very interesting.


 Quoting: shadahooch-e


There's not one mention of any 'Earth-bound' wave in the article. This is pure GLP fiction. These are waves caused by the massive CMEs which always luckily miss Earth. Nobody expected to see these effects so far beyond the heliosphere, hence the big discovery. That thread is pure bullshit IMHO.
Sol Reflector
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
AR2241 is now Beta-Gamma-Delta and Still Growing!
12/18-2241
:12/18-2241mag:


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 352 Issued at 0030Z on 18 Dec 2014
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 17 Dec
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 17/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2230 S14W88 324 0060 Hax 03 01 Alpha
2234 N05W84 320 0080 Hsx 03 01 Alpha
2235 S07W29 264 0090 Cao 03 04 Beta
2236 N32W04 240 0080 Cao 03 02 Beta
2237 S11W14 249 0040 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
2239 N13W15 250 0080 Dso 08 07 Beta
2240 N12E19 216 0040 Cso 04 02 Beta
2241 S10E19 216 0390 Ekc 12 20 Beta-Gamma-Delta
2242 S18W01 237 0700 Ekc 11 26 Beta-Gamma-Delta


AR2242 Directly Earth-facing-
12/18-2242
:12/18-2242HMIBC:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels. Region 2242 (S18W01,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced two M-class events, including an M1 flare
(R1-Minor) at 17/0110 UTC and an M8/2b flare (R2-Moderate) at 17/0451
UTC, which was the largest event of the period. The M8 flare had
associated Type II (est speed 910 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, as
well as a 320 sfu Tenflare. The majority of the ejecta from the
associated coronal mass ejection (CME) had a southerly trajectory.
However, there is a weak Earthward component and model output suggests
arrival at Earth late on 19 Dec.


Region 2242 continued to exhibit signs of growth as well as separation
in the leader spots while maintaining multiple magnetic deltas across an
east-west polarity inversion line.


Region 2241 (S10E19, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) also continued to show growth
and developed a delta magnetic configuration during the period. The
region produced two M1 flares at 17/0150 UTC and 17/1901 UTC.


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by Sol Reflector on 12/17/2014 09:45 PM
Sol Reflector
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
ASK A SOLAR PHYSICIST-some interesting stuff to ponder.

[link to solar-center.stanford.edu]

FB Suntards:

[link to www.facebook.com (secure)]

New Comet Lovejoy may become naked-eye object by mid-January (it's visible now with binoculars):

The latest Comet Lovejoy should reach at least 5th magnitude in late December and January, when it will be nicely placed high in the dark for your binoculars or telescope. And it may become detectable with the naked eye.
Update Dec. 15: Comet Lovejoy is brightening faster than expected. Last night it was visual magnitude 6.1, estimated veteran comet observer Alan Hale using 10×50 binoculars in a post to the Comet Mailing List on Yahoo Groups. The comet was very low in his sky.
From Australia, where the comet currently passes overhead, David Seargent says that on December 13th he "just managed to glimpse 2014 Q2 naked eye in a very clear sky. I estimated it at mag. 6.1 and at 6.2 with 2×25 opera glasses." Then on the 14th: "Much easier to see naked eye than 24 hours earlier, and estimated as bright as 5.5!" That same night Michael Mattiazzo in Australia estimated it at 6.0. Paul Camilleri said 5.7.
At this rate it would crest at about 4.1 in mid-January.


[link to www.skyandtelescope.com]
Sol Reflector
shadahooch-e

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12/17/2014 10:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
The Voyager space probe detects Solar Tsunami waves in interstellar space-

A "tsunami wave" occurs when the sun emits a coronal mass ejection, throwing out a magnetic cloud of plasma from its surface. This generates a wave of pressure. When the wave runs into the interstellar plasma -- the charged particles found in the space between the stars -- a shock wave results that perturbs the plasma.

"The tsunami causes the ionized gas that is out there to resonate -- "sing" or vibrate like a bell," said Ed Stone, project scientist for the Voyager mission based at California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

[link to www.jpl.nasa.gov]



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Sol Reflector


NASA has just announced their Voyager 1 probe which is currently into its 25th plus year of the mission to "interstellar space" and is now outside the solar system's Heliosphere--has detected 3 "space tsunami waves"--with one of the 3 being especially powerful, earth-bound and on-going in duration. You can link to the article for more information (above) There is NO information as to when earth can expect the effects of these waves, nor if NASA deems them a threat to earth or our satellites.


Is this the once debated nova waves coming in, very interesting.


 Quoting: shadahooch-e


There's not one mention of any 'Earth-bound' wave in the article. This is pure GLP fiction. These are waves caused by the massive CMEs which always luckily miss Earth. Nobody expected to see these effects so far beyond the heliosphere, hence the big discovery. That thread is pure bullshit IMHO.
 Quoting: Sol Reflector

Pretty much, but the concept of super micro quasars entering our system is still thrown around, not to mention the subsequent particle assimilation and distribution of many stars.
Wave upon wave, spiraling as we go.

Previously the radio galaxy Centaurus A was considered to be the closest exploding galaxy to the Milky Way (distance 10 – 16 million light years). Now we find that M82 at 12 million light years rivals for this position. Just because its core is not luminous does not mean that it is not undergoing significant core explosion activity. The radio lobes which have recently appeared in the polar ring galaxy NGC 660 also appear to show evidence of superwave propagation. Dr. Gandhi

Theres a lot out there my friend we know nothing of.Peace

Last Edited by shadasonic on 12/17/2014 11:35 PM
My dreams are worthless, my plans are dust, my goals are impossible, unless they are followed by action containing integrity as its standard.
shadahooch-e

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.net]

AR2241 needs a delta and a slightly increased magnetic structure and it has possibilities.
 Quoting: shadahooch-e


Knew that AR was gonna build structure, actually hoped it would.lol

BGD and looking strong with the dipole expanding
My dreams are worthless, my plans are dust, my goals are impossible, unless they are followed by action containing integrity as its standard.
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12/18/2014 02:58 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Did anyone watch strip the cosmos?
They said the earth protects itself from CME using charged charged particles cause by UV Rays hitting the atmosphere. When a solar storm occurs the partcles shift, forming a tendril to "meet" the storm and stop the radiation.

Is this why we seem to be so well protected from solar storms??
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Did anyone watch strip the cosmos?
They said the earth protects itself from CME using charged charged particles cause by UV Rays hitting the atmosphere. When a solar storm occurs the partcles shift, forming a tendril to "meet" the storm and stop the radiation.

Is this why we seem to be so well protected from solar storms??
 Quoting: Voluntaryist 17754867


The segment was discussed by someone from berkley if that helps find the source
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Thought us space junkies would enjoy this love ya

Simple27

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Growing Sunspots, Flare Threat Increased
Good morning. Here is an updated look at the visible solar disk on Thursday, including a closeup look at the magnetic layouts of regions 2241 and 2242. Solar activity during the past 24 hours was moderate. Region 2241 produced an M1.4 solar flare at 19:01 UTC (Dec 17). Both regions continued to consistently produce C-Flares. Each currently possess Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic layouts, along with well defined east-west lines between positive and negative polarity. Moderate M-Class solar flares will remain likely during the next 24-48 hours with an increasing chance for an isolated X-Class event. Both regions are currently in a good geoeffective Earth facing position. All other visible regions were stable. With full coronagraph imagery now available following the M8 flare from Dec 17, it was determined that while a majority of released material was indeed directed to the south, a small portion of the coronal mass ejection (CME) may be Earth directed. Only a minor increase in geomagnetic activity is to be expected beginning on Dec 19. Continue to monitor SolarHam.com for the latest data and imagery.
[link to solarham.net]

Solar Flare Risk
M-Class: 75%
X-Class: 25%
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Growing Sunspots, Flare Threat Increased
Good morning. Here is an updated look at the visible solar disk on Thursday, including a closeup look at the magnetic layouts of regions 2241 and 2242. Solar activity during the past 24 hours was moderate. Region 2241 produced an M1.4 solar flare at 19:01 UTC (Dec 17). Both regions continued to consistently produce C-Flares. Each currently possess Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic layouts, along with well defined east-west lines between positive and negative polarity. Moderate M-Class solar flares will remain likely during the next 24-48 hours with an increasing chance for an isolated X-Class event. Both regions are currently in a good geoeffective Earth facing position. All other visible regions were stable. With full coronagraph imagery now available following the M8 flare from Dec 17, it was determined that while a majority of released material was indeed directed to the south, a small portion of the coronal mass ejection (CME) may be Earth directed. Only a minor increase in geomagnetic activity is to be expected beginning on Dec 19. Continue to monitor SolarHam.com for the latest data and imagery.
[link to solarham.net]

Solar Flare Risk
M-Class: 75%
X-Class: 25%
 Quoting: Simple27


coffee4schemingtwirltwirltwirltwirltwirltwirl
"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Strong flare from 2241-

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

[link to www.solarham.net]

siren2deviltardsiren2
Sol Reflector
Sol Reflector

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 246
Issue Time: 2014 Dec 18 2157 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2014 Dec 18 2155 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Looks like an M7 or so....and very geoeffective positioning.
Sol Reflector
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
We may have a strong CME heading straight at us. The x-ray flux has stayed at M5 or better for almost a half-hour now.

[link to sol24.net]

Solar Demon movie of flare seems to show some serious-looking shockwave-

[link to solardemon.oma.be]

Don't be surprised if 2242 reacts to this. There may be a sibling rivalry between these two who grew up together. Both regions are in the RED ZONE now:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

solardoom
Sol Reflector
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Growing Sunspots, Flare Threat Increased
Good morning. Here is an updated look at the visible solar disk on Thursday, including a closeup look at the magnetic layouts of regions 2241 and 2242. Solar activity during the past 24 hours was moderate. Region 2241 produced an M1.4 solar flare at 19:01 UTC (Dec 17). Both regions continued to consistently produce C-Flares. Each currently possess Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic layouts, along with well defined east-west lines between positive and negative polarity. Moderate M-Class solar flares will remain likely during the next 24-48 hours with an increasing chance for an isolated X-Class event. Both regions are currently in a good geoeffective Earth facing position. All other visible regions were stable. With full coronagraph imagery now available following the M8 flare from Dec 17, it was determined that while a majority of released material was indeed directed to the south, a small portion of the coronal mass ejection (CME) may be Earth directed. Only a minor increase in geomagnetic activity is to be expected beginning on Dec 19. Continue to monitor SolarHam.com for the latest data and imagery.
[link to solarham.net]

Solar Flare Risk
M-Class: 75%
X-Class: 25%
 Quoting: Simple27


coffee4schemingtwirltwirltwirltwirltwirltwirl
 Quoting: joinca



Much love for making me laugh hiding
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to fnews.com (secure)]


glow in the dark-rainbow-





GLP