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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
Helios Maximus

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02/15/2016 03:39 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
is it me or is 2497 less active in terms of m flares today? also, is it going to do a earth directed CME?
EDIT: it is no longer earth facing
[link to www.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: danderson100


Hello, Agent 100 hi, the x-ray background level has been above C1 most of the day compared to B4 levels yesterday. This AR has produced 4 M-flares in the past 5 days or so. None of these showed associated CMEs (only the C9 on the the 11th).

Today's M1.1 flare:

[link to solardemon.oma.be]

A massive eruption could possibly be geoeffective, but the chances are diminishing due to the sunspots' position. However, we could still see a proton storm/radiation storm in the event of a strong CME. We've seen proton events even when an AR has gone beyond the west limb.

Anything could happen.
sun

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 02/15/2016 03:44 PM
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
danderson100

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02/15/2016 03:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
so should we rule out a CME like 1859 or is this sunspot too far west for that?
danderson100
Helios Maximus

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02/15/2016 04:40 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
so should we rule out a CME like 1859 or is this sunspot too far west for that?
 Quoting: danderson100


I'm 99.9% sure we can rule out a Carrington Event. If this spot was 10x bigger maybe. The Carrington flare is estimated to an X45 and most likely involved several large CMEs in rapid succession. I hope you saw my post about this Solar Cycle being the weakest in 200 years. Of course a massive superflare eruption can never be ruled out completely (due to Sol's unpredictability), it's very unlikely to happen in such a sleepy cycle as this.

Another C4 flare.....might be a precurser to an X.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

[link to sol24.net]

[link to sol24.net]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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02/16/2016 02:34 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 47 Issued at 0030Z on 16 Feb 2016
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 15 Feb
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 15/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2497 N12W62 091 0240 Eac 12 16 Beta-Gamma-Delta
2500 S18W56 085 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
2501 N04E62 327 0060 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
:2/15-2497_HMIIC:
:2/15-2497_HMIBC:

NOAA Solar Activity 24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was moderate due to an isolated M1/1n flare at 15/1100
UTC from Region 2497 (N12W62, Eac/beta-gamma-delta). Region 2497 was
responsible for frequent C-class level activity throughout the reporting
period and was the sole provider of significant flaring. Region 2497
displayed signs of slight decay in its intermediate spots while showing
signs of consolidation and growth in its intermediate and leader spots.

Region 2500 (S18W56, Axx/alpha) decreased in areal coverage and decayed
to a unipolar spot group. Region 2501 (N04E62, Hsx, alpha) was
unremarkable and stable. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in
available satellite imagery.

Geospace 24 hr Summary...

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period the last synoptic period of the day.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly active levels, with
minor (G1-Minor) storm conditions expected early on day one (16 Feb),
due to a possible late arrival of the 11 Feb CME.
Conditions should
return to mostly quiet to unsettled levels through much of the remainder
of day one before returning to minor (G1-Minor) storm conditions late on
day two (17 Feb), due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Day
three (18 Feb) should see persistent CH HSS effects in which active
conditions are likely.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Space-quake or micro-meteorite impact?

Stereo Ahead EUVI shake-out:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
hiding
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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02/16/2016 02:42 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Solar Doom Fear Porn--

12 Hours Before the End of the World! (how many of these articles have we seen, haha?)

[link to www.offthegridnews.com]
uhohdynamitesfanahhh
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Anonymous Coward
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02/16/2016 06:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Solar Doom Fear Porn--

12 Hours Before the End of the World! (how many of these articles have we seen, haha?)

[link to www.offthegridnews.com]
uhohdynamitesfanahhh
 Quoting: Helios Maximus

hiding
joinca

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02/16/2016 05:32 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
The solar wind speed measured by ACE has gradually increased from values
near 410 km/s around 4h UT on February 16 towards current values near 630
km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has been near 15
nT since about 5h UT and is currently about 7 nT. In combination with
negative Bz episodes, this resulted in a geomagnetic storm with Kp values
of 5 (9h till 18h UT) and 6 (18h till 21h UT). K Dourbes values did not
exceed 4 in the same period. Active (K Dourbes = 4) to moderate geomagnetic
storm (K Dourbes = 6) levels are possible in the next hours.
[link to www.sidc.be]

manhole5
"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
shadahoochee

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02/16/2016 05:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.net]



The BZ being south for a while had my head and ears tingling. Looks like its headed north for a while. Kp6, we'll see if it goes up.Peace
Simple27

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02/16/2016 06:09 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
February 16, 2016 @ 22:10 UTC
Coronal Hole Stream / Geomagnetic Storm
A high speed solar wind stream flowing from the northern extension of a southern hemisphere coronal hole is now flowing past Earth. Periods of southward Bz, combined with a solar wind speed above 600 km/s is stirring up geomagnetic storming at higher latitudes. The moderate (G2) storm threshold was reached at 20:59 UTC according to the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Sky watchers at high latitudes should be alert for visual aurora tonight as enhanced geomagnetic activity could persist during the next 24 hours.

[link to solarham.net]

[link to solarham.net]
~*Ride the Wave*~
danderson100

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02/16/2016 08:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
so 2497 is pretty much gone now?
danderson100
Simple27

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02/17/2016 12:11 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
C9.4

[link to legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Last Edited by Simple27 on 02/17/2016 12:18 AM
~*Ride the Wave*~
joinca

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02/17/2016 12:29 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


[link to i.imgur.com]

5a
"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
Simple27

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02/17/2016 01:03 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: joinca


hf
~*Ride the Wave*~
Helios Maximus

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02/17/2016 01:59 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
AR2497 waves good-bye....C7.4.

[link to sol24.net]

SD movie:
[link to solardemon.oma.be]

:2/17-2497good-bye:
:2/17-C7 flare:
byekitty

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 02/17/2016 06:45 PM
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
danderson100

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02/17/2016 03:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
when does the filament that is on the lower part of the disk become earth facing and is it a threat for a bog event like 1859?
danderson100
Helios Maximus

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02/17/2016 06:45 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
A nice CME from 2497 as it disappears over the limb. ADIOS!

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

STEREO A difference image:
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

DOOM averted once again. The GLP Effect rules!
explosion

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 02/17/2016 07:07 PM
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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02/17/2016 06:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
This coronal hole hi-speed stream is potent.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Kp=6 G2 Storming again-

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 395
Issue Time: 2016 Feb 17 2308 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2016 Feb 17 2307 UTC

Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate


NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Aurora Alert--Scotland, Iceland and North America.....

[link to services.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE Solar Wind plots:
[link to www.solarham.net]
aurora-man
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
danderson100

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02/17/2016 07:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
why does it keep going up to g2 i though it was going to clam down
danderson100
Helios Maximus

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02/17/2016 08:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
why does it keep going up to g2 i though it was going to clam down
 Quoting: danderson100


We have a high speed solar wind (600+ kms/sec) from a negative polarity coronal hole. These factors plus the irregular shape of the CH and other unknown factors may cause intermittent disturbances for a few days.

Latest SDO/AIA 211a image showing coronal hole:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

NOAA comments-

Geospace 24 hr Summary...

The geomagnetic field was at mostly unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor)
levels, with an isolated period of major (G2-Moderate) storming the last
synoptic period of the day, due to the impact and continued effects of
the negative polarity CH HSS.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach major (G2-Moderate) storming
early on day one (18 Feb) as solar wind speeds remain elevated and the
IMF remains enhanced in response to the continued effects of the
negative polarity CH HSS. Day two (19 Feb) should see mostly unsettled
to active conditions as CH HSS influence begins to wane.
Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on day three (20 Feb).

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Unfortunately, my aurora-cam links are mostly overcast or offline.

Iceland:
[link to www.earthcam.com]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
joinca

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02/17/2016 10:18 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
C7.2

[link to legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov]
[link to solarham.net]

Planetary K-index
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Notifications
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


5a

Last Edited by joinca on 02/17/2016 10:23 PM
"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
shadahoochee

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02/17/2016 10:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
why does it keep going up to g2 i though it was going to clam down
 Quoting: danderson100


Its not a blast like a cme, its a continuous stream of particle wind and its polarity flips to a neg. Bz allowing all these particles to stream past our magnetosphere and become ground filtered.
joinca

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02/17/2016 10:31 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Northern Lights Forecasts
[link to www.aurora-service.eu]

REAL TIME SOLAR WIND TOOL
[link to www.aurora-service.eu]

Solar Terrestrial Activity Report
[link to www.solen.info]
Sun - coronal hole and active region map
[link to www.solen.info]

Flare Predictor Tool
[link to sidc.oma.be]

shitstir2

Last Edited by joinca on 02/17/2016 10:34 PM
"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
Helios Maximus

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02/17/2016 10:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


Howdy, Joinca hi The C7.2 may have produced another CME. SoHO hasn't updated for 13 hours so we'll probably have a lot of CME images to look at tomorrow.

SolarDemon movie of C7.2 flare:
[link to solardemon.oma.be]

X-ray image/plot:
[link to sol24.net]

Solar Activity 24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was low. Region 2497 (N13W89, Eac/beta-gamma-delta)
continued its migration towards the west limb and remained as the
primary flare producer of the period. Region 2497 produced a C9 flare at
17/0501 UTC and a C7/Sf flare at 17/1813 UTC. Region 2502 (N08W14,
Bxo/beta) was absent of significant flaring and showed signs of decay.
Region 2501 (N05E34, Hsx/alpha) was stable. New Region 2503 (N06W00,
Cro/beta) emerged onto the visible disk and produced a C1/Sf at 17/1751
UTC.
A CME was observed in LASCO/C2 imagery off of the west limb and is
believed to be associated with the C7/Sf flare from Region 2497
mentioned above. Forecasters are awaiting imagery for further analysis
but due to the location of the source region an Earth-directed component
is not likely.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
joinca

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02/17/2016 11:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


Howdy, Joinca hi The C7.2 may have produced another CME. SoHO hasn't updated for 13 hours so we'll probably have a lot of CME images to look at tomorrow.

SolarDemon movie of C7.2 flare:
[link to solardemon.oma.be]

X-ray image/plot:
[link to sol24.net]

Solar Activity 24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was low. Region 2497 (N13W89, Eac/beta-gamma-delta)
continued its migration towards the west limb and remained as the
primary flare producer of the period. Region 2497 produced a C9 flare at
17/0501 UTC and a C7/Sf flare at 17/1813 UTC. Region 2502 (N08W14,
Bxo/beta) was absent of significant flaring and showed signs of decay.
Region 2501 (N05E34, Hsx/alpha) was stable. New Region 2503 (N06W00,
Cro/beta) emerged onto the visible disk and produced a C1/Sf at 17/1751
UTC.
A CME was observed in LASCO/C2 imagery off of the west limb and is
believed to be associated with the C7/Sf flare from Region 2497
mentioned above. Forecasters are awaiting imagery for further analysis
but due to the location of the source region an Earth-directed component
is not likely.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


Hello Hugh! I am always lurking but not always posting. Hope that you are doing well. You keep the sun thread at it's finest!

rockon

The sun keeps trying lately...
[link to legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by joinca on 02/17/2016 11:07 PM
"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
Isis One

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02/17/2016 11:14 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I see center disc 2503 gave us a little C flare.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
danderson100

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02/17/2016 11:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I see center disc 2503 gave us a little C flare.
 Quoting: Isis One


it was 2497 according to oslarosft
danderson100
Helios Maximus

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02/18/2016 01:46 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Still no update from SoHO.

STEREO Ahead shows lots of plasma ejecting:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

GeoStorm in progress-

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 932
Issue Time: 2016 Feb 18 0424 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2016 Feb 18 0424 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor


NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AuroraMax, Canada:
[link to www.asc-csa.gc.ca]



Got to get some sleep now. Good-night.
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
shadahoochee

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02/18/2016 10:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.net]

Still no update. arrrrrrrrredface

CH is still kicking some decent winds, this energetic stream is good for the old mag. It needs some charging.

Last Edited by shadahoochee on 02/18/2016 10:10 PM
danderson100

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02/18/2016 10:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
why is goes still decteing 2497 i thought it was off the disk
danderson100
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02/18/2016 10:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I felt it since yesterday after PM. Mid-day.





GLP