SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Excellent article. Learn something new every day.

Last Edited by Isis One on 04/09/2016 04:29 PM

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 101 Issued at 0030Z on 10 Apr 2016
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 09 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 09/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2528 N07W79 116 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
2529 N10E54 343 0820 Ehi 12 08 Beta

9 C-Flares...AR2529 Growing-
:4/9-2529HMIIC:

Solar Activity 24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was at low levels. A long-duration C2 flare occurred at
09/1342 UTC from Region 2529 (N10E54, Ehi/beta), which was the largest
event of the period. Region 2529 exhibited minor penumbral growth in
its trailer spot area and Region 2528 (N07W79, Axx/alpha) was in decay.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (10-12
Apr) due to the flare potential of Region 2529.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Yuuuge Magnetic Vortex-
:4/9-vortex:

Latest SDO AIA 304 movie:
[link to sdodata.oma.be]

STEREO A EUVI movie shows just how large the loops are emanating from this AR:
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

The large coronal hole in the NE has quadrupled in size over the past 48 hours. It has widened near the equator and now extends all the way to the South Pole. Earth should see a serious blast of solar wind in about 5 days.

Enormous Coronal Hole Turning Towards Earth-
:4/9-cor-hole:

I'm learning lots of new stuff today, too, Isis #1. New Horizons not only photographed Pluto, but the spacecraft also collected solar wind data from the orbit of Uranus on out to Pluto and beyond.

NEW HORIZONS FILLS GAP IN SPACE ENVIRONMENT OBSERVATIONS-

Not only does the New Horizons data provide new glimpses of the space environment of the outer solar system, but this information helps round out our growing picture of the suns influence on space, from near-Earth effects to the boundary where the solar wind meets interstellar space. The new data shows particles in the solar wind that have picked up an initial burst of energy, an acceleration boost that kicks them up just past their original speed. These particles may be the seeds of extremely energetic particles called anomalous cosmic rays. When these super-fast, energetic rays travel closer to Earth, they can pose a radiation hazard to astronauts. Further away, at lower energies, the rays are thought to play a role at shaping the boundary where the solar wind hits interstellar space - the region of our solar system that Voyager 2 is currently navigating and observing. (snip)

Since the sun is the source of the solar wind, events on the sun are the primary force that shapes the space environment. Shocks in the solar wind which can create space weather, such as auroras, on worlds with magnetic fields are created either by fast, dense clouds of material called coronal mass ejections, or CMEs, or by the collision of two different-speed solar wind streams. These individual features are discernible in the inner solar system but New Horizons didnt see the same level of detail.

The New Horizons data show that the space environment in the outer solar system has less detailed structure than space closer to Earth, since smaller structures tend to be worn down or clump together as they travel outwards, creating fewer - but bigger - features.

Full article here:
[link to www.sciencenewsline.com]

Don't panic yet, but..........

Solar Storm Researchers Prepare for the 'Big One' with New Urgency (less than 50% quoted below)

In addition to disrupting communications and energy grids, what is broadly known as space weather - powerful bursts of electromagnetic radiation, energetic charged particles and magnetized plasma - has the potential to corrode water and sewer pipelines, to erase historical data stored in computer memory, to undermine military and security operations and to harm astronauts traveling in space. (snip)

"Once systems start to fail, (the outages) could cascade in ways we can't even conceive," said Daniel Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado-Boulder and also a panelist, who recommends increasing support for the development of engineering systems and devices capable of protecting Earth's infrastructure.

Trillion Dollar Recovery

In a 2013 report, Lloyd's of London, the insurance market, put the population at risk of a massive storm at "between 20-40 million with durations up to 1-2 years," depending "largely on the availability of spare replacement transformers." The cost of such a recovery would range between $600 billion and $2.6 trillion. (snip)

Ralph Stoffler, the director of weather, deputy chief of staff for operations at U.S. Air Force headquarters in Washington, said the Air Force was currently expanding its network of sensors to monitor space weather, including placing them on all of its satellites.

"We need data to support particular military operations," Stoffler said, adding that the Air Force relies on GPS for missions such as piloting remote aircraft in Afghanistan from the U.S. "If we can predict space weather, we can have other operations in place or delay."

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has recently added space weather to its daily operations briefings. "We know there is a gap in our ability to assess vulnerability and consequences," said Jack Anderson, a senior analyst at DHS's National Protection and Programs Directorate, adding that while there is currently no scale for predicting the magnitude of a storm as exists for hurricanes, for example, "we need to develop that at FEMA."

Very scary press release here:

[link to www.njit.edu]



Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 04/09/2016 10:50 PM

WHEN STARS ATTACK!

Proof That Ancient Supernovae Zapped Earth Sparks Hunt for After Effects-

Melott said both supernovae events were beyond the "kill zone" of roughly 30 light years, but they might have had other impacts -- including influence on human evolution.

"Our local research group is working on figuring out what the effects were likely to have been," he said. "We really don't know. The events weren't close enough to cause a big mass extinction or severe effects, but not so far away that we can ignore them either. We're trying to decide if we should expect to have seen any effects on the ground on the Earth."

A major colloquium, entitled "When Stars Attack! Near-Earth Supernovae Explosions Threat and Evidence," is intended to further discussion of the new evidence.

Report here:
[link to www.sciencenewsline.com]

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

How do you get these so fast? I've been waiting all day for SOHO's website to update....it still shows latest image from 4/9. WTF?

STEREO Cor 2 movie of CME:
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Still difference image:
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

:4/10-CME:

Solarsoft is calling this a 12-hour LDE C1 flare. Most likely related to the CME also.

SDO/Solarsoft movie:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

AIA 193 version:
[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

Yesterday's very colorful 3+hours C2.8 flare:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

x

I subscribed to that YT channel, so their new vids always show up when I go to my subscriptions on YT. : )

Maybe my flare forecast wasn't so crazy after all. I found this at one of Lockheed's sites--

Flare warning by LMATC Solar Weather forecast package:

Generated Sun Apr 10 11:08:58 2016

Likelihood of flaring for AR2529: >M1 50%; >M3 20%; >X1 10%; >X3 1%

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Also found this wild model there:
[link to www.lmsal.com]

Coronal Hole #727:

[link to www.solen.info]

xx

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 04/10/2016 10:55 PM

Nice call Hugh!

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 102 Issued at 0030Z on 11 Apr 2016
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 10 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 10/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2529 N09E42 341 0820 Eki 11 16 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 10/2400Z Apr
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 11 Apr to 13 Apr
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

*NOTE: Solen.info is now giving the area at 1100 Millionths.
[link to www.solen.info]

Solar Activity 24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was low this period. The largest event of the period was
long-duration C1 flare from Region 2529 (N09E42, Eki/beta) at 10/0934
UTC. Region 2529 was stable throughout the period and an unnumbered
area of emerging spots was observed near N15E05.

A filament eruption centered near N10E25 was observed at around 10/1000
UTC and an associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed beginning
at 10/1100 UTC. This CME may have an Earth-directed component and
analysis is underway; see the 11/1230 UTC forecast discussion for
further information.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Filament eruption can be seen at the start of this GONG movie. Also check out the action around AR2529.
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Latest SDO/AIA 304 movie:
[link to sdodata.oma.be]

AR2529 is getting close to a Geo-effective position-
:4/11-AR2529:
:4/11-2529mag:

Sunspot AR2529 remains fairly quiet with just a few small C-flares. He's biding his time until he enters the 'Kill-Zone' sometime tomorrow. Strange, but I don't recall ever seeing a ten-flare from a C1 event before. God help us if this guy really blows his stack.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 682
Issue Time: 2016 Apr 11 2039 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2016 Apr 11 2021 UTC
Maximum Time: 2016 Apr 11 2021 UTC
End Time: 2016 Apr 11 2021 UTC
Duration: 1 minutes
Peak Flux: 440 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 111 sfu

Comment: Previous day noon flux of 111 sfu. Current day morning flux of 115 sfu.

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 103 Issued at 0030Z on 12 Apr 2016
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 11 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 11/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2529 N09E28 342 0850 Eki 12 19 Beta
2530 N15W11 021 0030 Cso 04 03 Beta
:4/12-ar2529:

Solar Activity 24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was low. Region 2529 (N09E28, Eki/beta) produced multiple
low level C-class flares throughout the period. At approximately
11/2021, this region also appeared to be responsible for a 440 sfu F10.7
cm radio burst. Despite this increase in activity, Region 2529 showed
indications of slight decay in its intermediate spots and slowed growth
in its larger leader spot. Region 2530 (N15W11, Cso/beta) was absent of
significant flare activity while displaying signs of slight growth in
both its leader and trailer areas. There were no Earth-directed CMEs
observed in available satellite imagery during the reporting period.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

:4/12-2529_HMIBC:

Is that 2524 coming around the bend? It's looking pretty active from this angle.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Another Mystery Solved.......

The Moon thought to play a major role in maintaining Earth's magnetic field-

The Earth's magnetic field permanently [?!] protects us from the charged particles and radiation that originate in the Sun. This shield is produced by the geodynamo, the rapid motion of huge quantities of liquid iron alloy in the Earth's outer core. To maintain this magnetic field until the present day, the classical model required the Earth's core to have cooled by around 3,000C over the past 4.3 billion years.

Now, a team of researchers from CNRS and Universite Blaise Pascal1 suggests that, on the contrary, its temperature has fallen by only 300C. The action of the Moon, overlooked until now, is thought to have compensated for this difference and kept the geodynamo active. Their work is published on 30 march 2016 in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters. (snip)

The Earth has a slightly flattened shape and rotates about an inclined axis that wobbles around the poles. Its mantle deforms elastically due to tidal effects caused by the Moon. The researchers show that this effect could continuously stimulate the motion of the liquid iron alloy making up the outer core, and in return generate Earth's magnetic field.

Full report here:
[link to www.moondaily.com]



Help! I'm overdosing on too much useless information.....aaaaahhhhhh!

We might have one more AR coming around, but after that the far-side looks barren of activity.

STEREO Ahead EUVI image:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

!

This day in history.........

Yuri Gagarin aboard the Vostok 1 , of Soviet Russia, is credited with being the first human in space and to orbit the Earth on April 12, 1961.

Vostok 1

On 12 April 1961, the Vostok 3KA-3 (Vostok 1) spacecraft with Gagarin aboard was launched from Baikonur Cosmodrome. Gagarin thus became both the first human to travel into space, and the first to orbit the earth. His call sign was Kedr (Russian: Кедр, Siberian pine or Cedar).


Poyekhali!

The radio communication between the launch control room and Gagarin included the following dialogue at the moment of rocket launch:

Korolev: "Preliminary stage..... intermediate..... main..... lift off! We wish you a good flight. Everything is all right."

Gagarin: "Поехали!" (Poyekhali!—Let's go!).[16]

Gagarin's informal poyekhali! became a historical phrase in the Eastern Bloc, used to refer to the beginning of the Space Age in human history.

In his post-flight report, Gagarin recalled his experience of spaceflight, having been the first human in space:

The feeling of weightlessness was somewhat unfamiliar compared with Earth conditions. Here, you feel as if you were hanging in a horizontal position in straps. You feel as if you are suspended.
[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

More on the Vostok 1 flight:
[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

Conspiracy theories and rumours abound that Gagarin wasn't the first cosmonaut....just the first one to SURVIVE space travel:

[link to news.discovery.com]
...and I was only 3 years old.

Also in Space history.......the Solar Maximum Mission (launched in 1980) was apprehended and repaired by the crew of the Space Shuttle Challenger (STS-41-C) in April 1984. The 7+ hour spacewalk and repair job revitalized and extended the Solar Maximum's mission by 5 years. This mission was one of the first to detect CMEs from the Sun and discovered several Sun-grazing comets not visible from the Earth's surface.

Solar Maximum Mission:

[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

Challenger Flight STS-41-C:

[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

I love the links you share! Keep em' coming.

ALERT! The Kepler Space Telescope in Emergency Mode....maybe lost in space.

[link to www.spacedaily.com]

[/youtube]

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Hello, love Here's one more potential space-junk doom.

China's Space Station Tiangong 1 has possibly gone rogue!

This large object may be headed for an uncontrolled descent, ie., crash-landing.

'Without telemetry, China will be unable to receive data from Tiangong's scientific instruments. More disturbingly, it seems highly probable that China will be unable to control the laboratory. Tiangong 1 is now a rogue spacecraft. That's no problem in the short term, but it could become a matter of concern when its orbit finally decays.

In recent years, the world has experienced several cases of large satellites falling back to Earth on uncontrolled trajectories. Thankfully, there have been no catastrophes. But the spaceflight community relies too much on luck instead of planning for spacecraft returns. At some point, that luck will run out, serious damage to property or lives will appear, and the space industry will have to explain itself to the public. (snip)

Thus, the wait-and-see saga of a large falling spacecraft will soon repeat. Hopefully, it will not end in disaster. Probably, it will not damage life or property. But the re-entry of Tiangong 1 will serve as another reminder that space debris can be a problem for Earth as well as near-Earth space. That's a lesson not only for China, but the world.

more here:
[link to www.spacedaily.com]

Agreed! I don't post much, but I do read every link and appreciate the information.

Satellite tracker link. Includes Tiangong 1. : )

[link to www.space.com]

UPDATE:[/b

I found a satellite tracking site for Tiangong 1. It's travelling at more than 26,000 km/hr and losing altitude at about 1 km every 2 mins. or so. It's now at nearly 380 km altitude. Check it out here:

[link to www.satview.org]

^^^ Hopefully that link works now that it's gone crazy...

Referring to the link I posted. Oops.

Last Edited by Simple27 on 04/12/2016 12:20 AM

Great minds think alike! Haha.

I watched Tiangong-1 fall 4 kms and then it began climbing again. This must be due to the ellipse of its orbit or somebody's trolling us. By the way, the ISS is near 402 kms altitude and Japan's Hitomi (which broke up) is still being tracked at 569 kms. altitude (out of control-but in a much higher orbit).

[link to www.satview.org]

Very cool tracking site.

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]