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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
Helios Maximus

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09/10/2016 11:34 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I do wonder if there might be any criticism in STEREO-B not being tracked continually after the momentum dump. Had Juno not been at Jupiter I wonder if that would have changed. Because of the declared spacecraft emergency STEREO-B has priority access but not if they don't ask for it!

However they are the experts on the spacecraft and it might be simply they'd calculated that even if they saw the voltage drop dangerously low in telemetry that info would already be at least 16 mins old and another 16 mins before they could transmit a command so they'd just end up watching helplessly as it ran out of power.

Anyway just my musings but I was definitely surprised to see the DSN network leave STEREO-B alone for the night at that critical phase.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70756533


Have you worked in the industry? Your understanding seems fairly precise. I enjoy reading your narration of the work to re-establish the craft's mission!
 Quoting: Isis One


Sadly not. IT (and distant physics) background and amateur space geek. I have however read just about everything about the STEREO spacecraft design and operation that I can find for free. A lot of that info comes from the free preview areas of the ridiculously expensive book "The Stereo Mission" at [link to books.google.co.uk (secure)]

I remember well following the SOHO recovery when at first it looked like they might not be able to do it. But they got there so I'm hoping for success this time as well.

Glad people are enjoying the updates!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70756533


Great job! You probably already have this link, but I'll post it for anyone wishing to peek under the hood of the twin spacecraft.

[link to secchi.nrl.navy.mil]
yoda
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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09/11/2016 12:16 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Huge solar filament is now snaking over the NW limb.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

SDO composite view of giant filament-
:9/11-filament:

AIA 304a latest image here;

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Two new ARs numbered (2591 produced the B9 flare today).

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 255 Issued at 0030Z on 11 Sep 2016
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 10 Sep
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 10/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2585 N08W64 224 0340 Eko 12 09 Beta-Delta
2588 N11W51 210 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha
2589 N14W13 173 0080 Dai 06 12 Beta
2591 N05E18 142 0020 Cro 05 04 Beta

IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 10/2400Z Sep
Nmbr Location Lo
2584 S08W85 245
2587 N10W56 216
2590 N08W34 194

Latest HMI Intensitygram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Solar Activity 24 hr Summary...

Solar activity remained at very low levels with B-class flare activity
observed from Regions 2585 (N08W64, Eko,beta-delta), 2589 (N14W13,
Dai/beta) and new Region 2591 (N05E18, Cro/beta). Region 2585 exhibited
slight overall area decay, but was otherwise unchanged. Region 2589
showed overall growth, particularly in its leader spots with penumbra
development. New Region 2591 rapidly emerged on the disk and produced
the largest flare of the period; a B9/Sf flare observed at 10/1922 UTC.

Region 2590 (N08W34) decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

:9/11-prom:

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 09/11/2016 12:19 AM
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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09/11/2016 01:17 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
STEREO images tweaked by Goddard to produce the first movie of solar wind transition region.

[link to www.nasa.gov]



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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09/11/2016 02:37 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
The Earth-facing filament has lifted off.....

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

STEREO and SOHO coronagraphs haven't updated yet, but we may have an Earth-directed CME on the way.

explosionahhh
 Quoting: Helios Maximus

is everyone dead yet or we r now in next world?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72885242


I'm heading into the next world.
 Quoting: Isis One


Hold the bus! Stop the train! Wait for me.........



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Simple27

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09/11/2016 02:38 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
The Earth-facing filament has lifted off.....

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

STEREO and SOHO coronagraphs haven't updated yet, but we may have an Earth-directed CME on the way.

explosionahhh
 Quoting: Helios Maximus

is everyone dead yet or we r now in next world?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72885242


I'm heading into the next world.
 Quoting: Isis One


Hold the bus! Stop the train! Wait for me.........



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


Don't forget about me!
~*Ride the Wave*~
Anonymous Coward
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09/11/2016 12:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
STEREO-B

DSS-63 Madrid again has a signal from STEREO-B. Signal strength looks about the same as yesterday and is again of engineering mode carrier. Possible there was a data link earlier when I wasn't watching.

Coming up to the end of the Madrid pass and Goldstone is on STEREO-A so that could be it for most of today.

[link to eyes.nasa.gov (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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09/11/2016 04:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
A new update. I am not sure why they want to prevent the use of the High Gain Antenna in Command and Data Handling (C&DH) Standby mode as it seems unlikely STEREO-B could get into that mode by itself. And if it did why wouldn't you want it to use the HGA rather than the LGA currently not supporting data downlink? There must be more they've left unsaid.

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

September , 2016

The carrier from Behind was detected once again by the DSN during the morning of September 10. During 3 brief TWTA sampling periods, the carrier signal had a lower peak signal of -166 dBm and a period of ~60 seconds continuously, see attached display. Subcarrier lock did not occur. While the uplink can support short critical commands, the downlink cannot support telemetry. The spacecraft was configured for a low power mode by powering off all power switching boards and loads. EA mode was enforced as to prevent the use of the HGA in C&DH standby mode.
Isis One

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09/11/2016 04:12 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
STEREO images tweaked by Goddard to produce the first movie of solar wind transition region.

[link to www.nasa.gov]



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


Awesome!!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Anonymous Coward
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09/12/2016 05:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
This is the biggest hole I have seen hiding

[link to ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov]

The purple and blue colors are where there is the least ozone,


look how deep the blue is so zero protection
David's Heir

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09/12/2016 05:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
This is the biggest hole I have seen hiding

[link to ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov]

The purple and blue colors are where there is the least ozone,


look how deep the blue is so zero protection
 Quoting: Goofy for God


was way bigger during the 80's 90's up to half Chile
“THE LIPS OF WISDOM ARE CLOSED, EXCEPT TO THE
EARS OF UNDERSTANDING” Kybalion
Anonymous Coward
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09/12/2016 07:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
In the last couple of days a large filaprom is observable at the solar limb
[link to spaceweathergallery.com]
Helios Maximus

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09/12/2016 10:12 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
TOLD YA SO DEPT.-

The Sun does not cause earthquakes...it's the Moon, LOL.

"Could California's long-dreaded "Big One" be triggered by a full moon?

Perhaps, says a new study out Monday that claims large earthquakes are more likely during unusually high tides, which occur during full and new moons.

High tides, which typically occur twice a day, are caused when ocean water is moved by the gravitational pull of the moon. But twice a month, during a full or new moon, tides are especially high because the moon, earth and sun all line up together. (These twice-monthly tides are known as "spring" tides.)

Big quakes can occur when this additional weight of tidal water strains geological faults, according to the study. Though this theory is not new, this is the first study to display a firm, statistical link.

full article here:

[link to www.usatoday.com]

lunareclipse

I can't remember his name offhand, but Art Bell had a regular guest who claimed the full moon and new moon was linked to earthquakes. He was widely debunked and called a kook by seismologists. If this new study holds up to scrutiny, he should be given some kind of Nobel Prize for being 25 years ahead of the 'experts'. He predicted the San Francisco World Series quake if I recall correctly.

[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

WOW, I just found him--and sadly he passed away this July. JAMES BERKLAND did indeed predict the Loma Prieta EQ in the SF Bay area in 1989.

"Berkland has been predicting earthquakes since the 1970s, but his method has not been described in the scientific literature (he claims because of censorship and a conspiracy of prejudicial reviewers[12]), nor in any detail in any media.[13] In 1990 he described the "Seismic Window Theory" as "correlating gravitational stresses with earthquakes" - referring to the tidal stresses in the Earth resulting from the gravitational pull of the moon, especially at lunar perigee, when the moon is closest to the Earth. He said there are three main processes: (1) the solid earth tide that deforms the Earth's crust (up to three feet), (2) oceanic tides, and (3) ground water pore-pressure"
[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

Rest in Peace, Mr. Berkland.
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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09/12/2016 11:24 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good-bye to another under-achiever sunspot 2585.

AR2585 Good-Bye-
:9/13-2585bye:

Electron flux still very high-

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2426
Issue Time: 2016 Sep 12 1416 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2425
Begin Time: 2016 Sep 02 1305 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 11499 pfu


NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Electron Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Again, huge gaps in the ACE Solar Wind data:

[link to www.solarham.net]

Very few sunspots and none producing any energetic flares. I 'll continue to provide updates on JUNO, Cassini, the Mars missions, Comets, etc. whenever I'm able; but solar events are bound to be few and far-between for the next 5 or 6 years. Instead of waiting for X-flares, we're now waiting for a C-flare. Such is life in this strange universe.
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Isis One

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09/13/2016 12:09 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
You're funny Hugh!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Simple27

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09/13/2016 12:42 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good-bye to another under-achiever sunspot 2585.
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


:notimpressed:

chuckle

Hi Hugh & All!

sun

grouphug
~*Ride the Wave*~
Anonymous Coward
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09/13/2016 06:17 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Thread: EARTH's MAGNETIC FIELD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Recordings Go Haywire




ahhh
Anonymous Coward
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09/13/2016 07:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
on page 2 please look at this

Please look at this chart its going of the scala in Alaska..

By the minute that is

[link to solarham.net]


Thread: EARTH's MAGNETIC FIELD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Recordings Go Haywire (Page 2)
Anonymous Coward
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09/13/2016 06:15 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
STEREO-B

Well no updates for a couple of days now and the weekly minutes haven't gone up yet. Also DSS-63 Madrid has been offline all day and I haven't seen any other station attempt a contact. The 70m DSS-63 antenna was scheduled for a period of downtime for maintenance work which was delayed for the STEREO-B emergency. Maybe they've started the work - something seems to have kept if offline today.

If STEREO-B doesn't hear a signal for three days it will perform a hardware reset and reboot. In the best of cases it would eventually end up in (Sun) Earth Acquisition Mode (command sent to enforce that) with a slow spin about the Sun line and await commands on the Low gain Antenna. Maybe they intend to let the timer expire for some reason.

No update on the received signal being too weak for data. I'm not 100% sure on that. Maybe the radio science team can pull telemetry out of the noise even if the normal receiver can't. Then they've got the possibility of using a much more sensitive radio astronomy telescope for data downlinks if time can be arranged. Maybe they'll talk about these options in the updates but it seems we'll have to wait a bit.

If the spacecraft is more or less correctly pointed perhaps they just have to wait some time for LGA comms to improve sufficiently.

Locking out Standby mode with High Gain antenna remains unexplained but perhaps STEREO-B might have lost precise enough track of Earth position and need re-calibrated for position HGA pointing.

As always - wishing the team and all involved the best!
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2016 11:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
STEREO-B recovery operations suspended for now sadly. Much more detailed info at link.

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

STEREO Weekly Meeting Minutes for 2016-09-13 (Week 37)

ANNOUNCEMENTS
-------------

* Mission operations has announced that they are suspending Behind recovery
attempts until the telemetry situation improves, sometime next year. The
spacecraft is now spinning at a rate of approximately once every 52 seconds,
which allows only short commands to be uplinked, and does not support
telemetry downlink. Communication with the spacecraft degraded over the
weekend. Once a month communication attempts will resume, starting with the
phased array attempt this weekend, Sep 16-17. Each month will switch between
single station and phased array attempts until recovery operations resume.
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2016 12:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
STEREO-B recovery operations suspended for now sadly. Much more detailed info at link.

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

STEREO Weekly Meeting Minutes for 2016-09-13 (Week 37)

ANNOUNCEMENTS
-------------

* Mission operations has announced that they are suspending Behind recovery
attempts until the telemetry situation improves, sometime next year. The
spacecraft is now spinning at a rate of approximately once every 52 seconds,
which allows only short commands to be uplinked, and does not support
telemetry downlink. Communication with the spacecraft degraded over the
weekend. Once a month communication attempts will resume, starting with the
phased array attempt this weekend, Sep 16-17. Each month will switch between
single station and phased array attempts until recovery operations resume.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70756533


Some further observations from the minutes. It seems they did briefly get a signal from the High Gain Antenna when STEREO-B was switched to Standby Mode however the spacecraft was not fully stabilised and the HGA signal faded.

Power requirements during the extended period of self stabilisation seem to have exceeded what could be supplied from the degraded battery.

This weekend the Allen Radio Telescope Array will listen for the signal from STEREO-B during the experimental phased array uplink attempt which was previously planned. Communications will then be once per month until an attempt gets a usable uplink/downlink when recovery should re-commence.
fred also

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09/14/2016 09:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
BaaM

Sun is ejecting mass again

C'mon sleepy sun tards, there's no room to hide now
fred also

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09/14/2016 09:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I'm impressed
[link to solarham.net]

Probably have low expectation tho...
grinning
Simple27

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09/14/2016 09:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Bz -7.6

[link to solarham.net]
~*Ride the Wave*~
Deplorable Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2016 10:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
BaaM

Sun is ejecting mass again

C'mon sleepy sun tards, there's no room to hide now
 Quoting: fred also
Helios Maximus

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09/14/2016 10:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I'm impressed
[link to solarham.net]

Probably have low expectation tho...
grinning
 Quoting: fred also


Far-side CME.

SOHO C2:
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

STEREO far-side EUVI image:
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

STEREO A Cor 2 (partial halo CME):

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
explosion
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Deplorable Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2016 10:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
in to the other side

or does it touch us»= Hughs toU

on ecliptic eclipse mode ?
Deplorable Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2016 10:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Sometimes a little rain must fall

Hope for the best
Deplorable Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2016 10:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
And

-Do no wrong-
Deplorable Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
LUNAR ECLIPSE coming up tomorrow

A special alignment of planets called Kala Sarpa Yoga, or “The Serpent of Time,“ will amplify the effects of this eclipse.

Cut loose and dive in. The lunar eclipse of Sept 16, 2016 is out on the to brink of the unknown, asking you to step forward into uncharted territory. Things may seem to be coming apart, but new space for freedom is expanding at an accelerated rate.

Take heed however, while the transformative nature of this eclipse might feel exhilarating, it is also well known to create chaos and confusion. A unique three month period is approaching that will magnify the naga snake power throughout the world. A special alignment of planets called Kala Sarpa Yoga, or “The Serpent of Time,“ will entwine around the karmic axis of the eclipse (the north and south nodes of the moon) and amplify the shadow trickster, Rahu.

On a global level this could trigger sudden change, disasters, scandals and deception in the months to come. The days leading up to the US election - October 27 through November 7 - will be strongly influenced by this Kala Sarpa yoga.
Helios Maximus

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09/14/2016 10:44 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Either an M-flare or a filament explosion in the southern hemisphere on the far side. Two areas of coronal dimming seen in the STEREO A EUVI 195 images.

As a disservice to the public, their website no longer has daily movies I could link to in the past. Now you have to fiddle with the 'movie-maker' settings and watch them on your own time

Select Ahead EUVI 195, size 512 loads fast, click 'slideshow'. Enter the date (Universal Time) or last 30 images or what have you. The flare/eruption is first seen at 23:25 UT on 9/14/16.

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

The latest image shows a huge 2-ribbon wave and a large arcade, hinting this was indeed a filament eruption.

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

If we had the CME velocity that would also be a clue as to the nature of the event. We don't have that info yet, but flare-based CMEs tend to travel faster than filament liftoff CMEs.
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779





GLP