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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
aether

User ID: 1412926
United Kingdom
09/25/2011 12:32 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
remember our authorities got the cause wrong but observed and predicted effects often right

the shape and location of north america makes it inevitably a location to experience effects caused by increase in earths atmospheric charge

USA facing increase in severe storms, study says
12/5/2007

Global warming could bring the USA a dramatic increase in the frequency of weather conditions that feed severe thunderstorms and tornadoes by the end of the 21st century, says a study out Monday.

Some locations could see as much as a 100% increase in the number of days that favor severe thunderstorms, says the study in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
 Quoting: science

[link to www.usatoday.com]

NASA: Storm Severity On the Increase
Aug. 30, 2007
[link to www.heatisonline.org]
Anonymous Coward
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09/25/2011 12:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Okay big thx all!!!hf thought they banned me^^



[link to www.youtube.com]

you passed this NINz?^^
Anonymous Coward
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09/25/2011 12:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So in everyones honest opinion what kind of upcoming issues are we realistically looking at. After reading what the denver airport roof is made of and that it can withstand so much heat, then I started to worry a little more. That place looks demonic with the murals and all! Anyway I truly respect and trust you all and its a wonderful thing your doing fo us all by monitoring all this stuff! Hope your healing well Nin! Love and peace to all hf
Hugh M Eye

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09/25/2011 12:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NOAA expecting big events as "old Faithful" joins the party this week. I stumbled on this advance forecast (scroll down to the second item on page).
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
zacksavage
~~Unbound~~

User ID: 1969194
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09/25/2011 12:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm still learning to use this data-search-tool: HEK isolsearch, but I got a list of 9 CMEs for 9/24/11 and 10 CMEs on 9/23/11. Of course most are not geo-effective.
[link to www.lmsal.com]

However, it makes me even more skeptical of the Cygnet Streamer models, which are very crude and too selective. My gut tells me Lockheed/NASA has better tools that they're not sharing with your average Suntard.
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
spockIdol1damned
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ya think????


Z

Last Edited by zacksavage on 09/25/2011 12:40 PM
In time we hate that which we often fear.

--- William Shakespeare
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1619119
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09/25/2011 12:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
from spaceweather.com:

"Having already unleashed two X-flares since Sept. 22nd, sunspot AR1302 appears ready for more. The active region has a complex "beta-gamma-delta" magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M- and X-class eruptions. Flares from AR1302 will become increasingly geoeffective as the sunspot turns toward Earth in the days ahead."
Anonymous Coward
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09/25/2011 12:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Okay big thx all!!!hf thought they banned me^^



[link to www.youtube.com]

you passed this NINz?^^
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


This is most excellent! Thanks so much! Great music, too!
aether

User ID: 1412926
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09/25/2011 12:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm still learning to use this data-search-tool: HEK isolsearch, but I got a list of 9 CMEs for 9/24/11 and 10 CMEs on 9/23/11. Of course most are not geo-effective.
[link to www.lmsal.com]

However, it makes me even more skeptical of the Cygnet Streamer models, which are very crude and too selective. My gut tells me Lockheed/NASA has better tools that they're not sharing with your average Suntard.
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
spockIdol1damned
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ya think????






Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


What is Knowledge Management? (KM
)

Creating more efficient and effective systems and methods

KM systems for mission operations
Enhance system integration and data mining
Utilize intelligent agents
Exploit expert systems
 Quoting: nasa

[link to km.nasa.gov]

rockon
truz1980

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09/25/2011 12:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NOAA expecting big events as "old Faithful" joins the party this week. I stumbled on this advance forecast (scroll down to the second item on page).
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Nice find thanks for the infohf
BobLeeSwagger

User ID: 1581598
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09/25/2011 12:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Back up now:

[link to www.lmsal.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1297814
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09/25/2011 12:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Back up now:

[link to www.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: BobLeeSwagger


thx!hf
zacksavage
~~Unbound~~

User ID: 1969194
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09/25/2011 12:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

What is Knowledge Management? (KM
)

Creating more efficient and effective systems and methods

KM systems for mission operations
Enhance system integration and data mining
Utilize intelligent agents
Exploit expert systems
 Quoting: nasa

[link to km.nasa.gov]

rockon
 Quoting: aether


Thanks aether,...I found that interesting. Enhance, Utilize, Exploit,...

Obfuscate.



Z
In time we hate that which we often fear.

--- William Shakespeare
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 1135433
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09/25/2011 12:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
another flux rise now
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
joinca

User ID: 1387891
United States
09/25/2011 01:02 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good info here as well...
[link to www.bbso.njit.edu]
Latest Solar Activity Warnings
BBSO Solar Activity Warning 25-SEP-2011 16:13:21 UT
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
Quietwave
User ID: 1398816
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09/25/2011 01:06 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
purely anecdotal, but for the first time ever my stereo speaker have this odd static, I'm nowhere near any new interference.
could it be the solar activity /
Manifesting
User ID: 1582719
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09/25/2011 01:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So in everyones honest opinion what kind of upcoming issues are we realistically looking at. After reading what the denver airport roof is made of and that it can withstand so much heat, then I started to worry a little more. That place looks demonic with the murals and all! Anyway I truly respect and trust you all and its a wonderful thing your doing fo us all by monitoring all this stuff! Hope your healing well Nin! Love and peace to all hf
 Quoting: Taralily


+1, 100% ~ glad you are better, Nin hf

MANIFEST THE WORLD HOLDING HANDS

red_heart
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 1926677
United States
09/25/2011 01:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Proton levels spiking today.
[link to umtof.umd.edu]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

X-ray flux rising again.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1975671
Brazil
09/25/2011 01:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hmmm... I think I should not be concerned about the fact that the number of M-flares that happened in the Sun today, in a single day, is already equal to the number of M-flares that happened in the months of May, June and July togheter.

A total of five M-flares in May, June and July, all added.

Five
M-flares just today...

Nothing to be concerned about...
Arnie

User ID: 1959808
United States
09/25/2011 01:32 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hmmm... I think I should not be concerned about the fact that the number of M-flares that happened in the Sun today, in a single day, is already equal to the number of M-flares that happened in the months of May, June and July togheter.

A total of five M-flares in May, June and July, all added.

Five
M-flares just today...

Nothing to be concerned about...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1975671

hidekit
AKA Auntie Arnie
NiNzrez (OP)

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09/25/2011 01:33 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
September Flare Count:

Sept 25th:
M Flares - 6
X Flares - 0

Sept 24th:
M Flares - 9
X Flares - 1

Sept Total:
M Flares - 27
X Flares - 4


List:

M2.2 Flare on 9/25/2011 @ 16:58 UTC - sunspot 1302
M3.7 Flare on 9/25/2011 @ 15:33 UTC - sunspot 1302
M1.5 Flare on 9/25/2011 @ 09:30 UTC - region S1230
M3.1 Flare on 9/25/2011 @ 08:49 UTC - sunspot 1302
M7.4 Flare on 9/25/2011 @ 04:50 UTC - sunspot 1302
M4.4 Flare on 9/25/2011 @ 02:33 UTC - sunspot 1302 & region S1230

M1.0 Flare on 9/24/2011 @ 23:58 UTC - region S1230
M1.3 Flare on 9/24/2011 @ 21:28 UTC - region S1230
M5.8 Flare on 9/24/2011 @ 20:36 UTC - sunspot 1302
M3.0 Flare on 9/24/2011 @ 19:21 UTC - sunspot 1302
M2.7 Flare on 9/24/2011 @ 18:19 UTC - sunspot 1295
M2.8 Flare on 9/24/2011 @ 18:05 UTC - sunspot 1302
M3.1 Flare on 9/24/2011 @ 17:24 UTC - sunspot 1302
M1.7 Flare on 9/24/2011 @ 16:58 UTC - sunspot 1295
M7.1 Flare on 9/24/2011 @ 13:20 UTC - sunspot 1302
(LDE EVENT 3+hrs)
X1.9 Flare on 9/24/2011 @ 09:40 UTC - sunspot 1302
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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09/25/2011 01:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
there was a large CME produced with this Flare event
M3.7 Flare on 9/25/2011 @ 15:33 UTC - sunspot 1302

here are a few images of this CME
look to your left side, you will see it coming out of sunspot region 1302

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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09/25/2011 01:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hi NiN
Mim
User ID: 1977784
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09/25/2011 01:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Having fun I see :)

Just a quick update for all, done in my usual boring black and white style.

11302 has just expanded in size quite considerably, it is about 30% larger than last time I checked (<24 hours), the expansion rate is still high and we may see this monster swell out further.

Magnetic state is as you probably already know, Beta-Gamma-Delta. There are only 2 sunspots in the region but they are fighting with each other like tyrants in a Roman gladiator pit.

As the flare history has been low the past 24 hours and taking into consideration the expansion rate I suspect that we may see the highest X-flare event in many years.

CME probability still remains low at the moment (but thats a wild guess :).

Enjoy the fireworks and goodnight.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1975671
Brazil
09/25/2011 01:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nice, now it's SIX M-flares today...

15 M -flares and 1 X-flare in the last 48 hours...

Cool...
Mim
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09/25/2011 01:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Did I say 2 sunspots, put a 1 in front of that. There are 12 sunspots enclosed in area 11302.
Hugh M Eye

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09/25/2011 01:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
"SUN GONE CRAZY"-Today's solar Weather Forecast (could someone please embed this for me?)
[link to www.youtube.com]
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 1135433
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09/25/2011 01:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING:
A pair of closely-spaced CMEs propelled by explosions of sunspot AR1302 on Sept. 24th are heading not-quite directly toward Earth. A significant glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field is possible on Sept. 26th around 14:00 UT (+/- 7 hours). NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of strong geomagnetic storms when the clouds arrive.
[link to spaceweather.com]


NOAA 3 Day Forecast:
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1302 (N12E47) produced
a X1/2b flare at 24/0940Z, a M7 long duration x-ray flare at
24/1320Z, and a M5 x-ray flare at 24/2036Z. Coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed in association with the first two of these
events. The second CME, which was must faster, appears to overtake
the first, and has a partial halo signature from the LASCO/Earth
perspective. Estimate speeds of the CME range between 1900 - 2600
km/s. Region 1302 produced three other flares greater than M1 during
the period. Region 1295 (N26W84) produced a M3 x-ray flare at
24/1725Z. Another large sunspot is beginning to emerge around the
East limb of the disk near N15.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on day 1 (25 September) due
to recurrent coronal hole effects. Conditions are forecast to
increase to unsettled to minor storm levels with the chance for a
major storm starting late on day 1 through midday on day 2 (26
September) due to the anticipated partial impact from the CME from
earlier today. Conditions are forecast to carry over to day 3 (27
September) with mostly unsettled to active periods expected. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain above the 10
pfu threshold for days 1 and 2, before decreasing on day 3.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


NOAA space weather alerts
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1805
Issue Time: 2011 Sep 25 1535 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2011 Sep 25 1534 UTC
Valid To: 2011 Sep 26 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

------------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 132
Issue Time: 2011 Sep 25 1158 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2011 Sep 25 1151 UTC
Deviation: 14 nT
Station: Boulder
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1975671
Brazil
09/25/2011 01:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There were 19 M-flares 2 X-flares since September 21 until today.

Does anyone know what was the last time when when had 21 M or X flares over a period of 5 days?
Anonymous Coward
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09/25/2011 01:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
"SUN GONE CRAZY"-Today's solar Weather Forecast (could someone please embed this for me?)
[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 1135433
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09/25/2011 01:53 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I decided to take all my update posts for today and get them into 1 post
this way its much easier to read and see whats going on today and what to expect :)

1302 is Beta Gamma Delta ^^

1302 N12E47 282 1300 17 FKC 12 BGD
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Region 11302 [N13E50] has a small magnetic delta structure in the northeastern part of the leading penumbra. A much more significant delta exists in the central penumbra where a realtively large positive polarity umbra is sandwiched between two fairly large negative polarity umbrae. As long as this delta exists the region will continue to produce M and X flares

major M7.4 long duration event peaking at 04:50 UTC. The latter event is likely to have been associated with a large CME.
[link to www.solen.info]

we now have other regions developing and growing that could produce events
read all of solen for full report

it is going to be another busy day boys n girls
put on the coffee :)
 Quoting: NiNzrez

CME bow shock arrived this morning
Minor update added at 11:45 UTC on September 25:

A fairly weak solar wind shock was observed at ACE near 11h UTC, the arrival of the CME associated with the X1 event in region 11302 on September 22. Region 11303 generated an M1.3 flare at 07:05 and an M1.5 event at 09:35 UTC. Region 11302 was the source of an M3.1/1N event at 08:49 UTC
[link to www.solen.info]

Conditions right now are - a bit disturbed
the solar winds are remaining mostly southward
in the negative

Solar Wind: 352.6
Density: 7.6
Bz: -2.1
By: -3.3
 Quoting: NiNzrez

here is a list of regions at risk of flaring today:

Region 11295 [N24W84] developed further in the trailing penumbra which became very complex with a strong magnetic delta structure. A major flare is possible as the region rotates over the northwest limb

Region 11302 [N13E50] has a small magnetic delta structure in the northeastern part of the leading penumbra. A much more significant delta exists in the central penumbra where a realtively large positive polarity umbra is sandwiched between two fairly large negative polarity umbrae. As long as this delta exists the region will continue to produce M and X flares.

New region 11303 [S28W66] emerged in the southwest quadrant on September 23 and was numbered the next day by SWPC. The region developed rapidly during the latter half of the day with a magnetic delta structure forming in the very elongated penumbra. Further M class flaring is likely
[link to www.solen.info]

Summery:
M and X Flatres are likley today fro 1295 & 1302
M flare possible from 1303


Right Now...
Sunspot 1302:
Chance of M Flare - 60%
Chance of X Flare - 63%

Sunspot S1230:
Chance of M Flare - 52%
Chance of X Flare - 41%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Overall solar Flare Probability = 62%
 Quoting: NiNzrez


there was a large CME produced with this Flare event
M3.7 Flare on 9/25/2011 @ 15:33 UTC - sunspot 1302

here are a few images of this CME
look to your left side, you will see it coming out of sunspot region 1302

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING:
A pair of closely-spaced CMEs propelled by explosions of sunspot AR1302 on Sept. 24th are heading not-quite directly toward Earth. A significant glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field is possible on Sept. 26th around 14:00 UT (+/- 7 hours). NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of strong geomagnetic storms when the clouds arrive.
[link to spaceweather.com]


NOAA 3 Day Forecast:
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1302 (N12E47) produced
a X1/2b flare at 24/0940Z, a M7 long duration x-ray flare at
24/1320Z, and a M5 x-ray flare at 24/2036Z. Coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed in association with the first two of these
events. The second CME, which was must faster, appears to overtake
the first, and has a partial halo signature from the LASCO/Earth
perspective. Estimate speeds of the CME range between 1900 - 2600
km/s. Region 1302 produced three other flares greater than M1 during
the period. Region 1295 (N26W84) produced a M3 x-ray flare at
24/1725Z. Another large sunspot is beginning to emerge around the
East limb of the disk near N15.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on day 1 (25 September) due
to recurrent coronal hole effects. Conditions are forecast to
increase to unsettled to minor storm levels with the chance for a
major storm starting late on day 1 through midday on day 2 (26
September) due to the anticipated partial impact from the CME from
earlier today. Conditions are forecast to carry over to day 3 (27
September) with mostly unsettled to active periods expected. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain above the 10
pfu threshold for days 1 and 2, before decreasing on day 3.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


NOAA space weather alerts
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1805
Issue Time: 2011 Sep 25 1535 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2011 Sep 25 1534 UTC
Valid To: 2011 Sep 26 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

------------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 132
Issue Time: 2011 Sep 25 1158 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2011 Sep 25 1151 UTC
Deviation: 14 nT
Station: Boulder
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Last Edited by NiNzrez on 09/25/2011 01:55 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?

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