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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 1135433
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09/25/2011 01:53 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I decided to take all my update posts for today and get them into 1 post
this way its much easier to read and see whats going on today and what to expect :)

1302 is Beta Gamma Delta ^^

1302 N12E47 282 1300 17 FKC 12 BGD
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Region 11302 [N13E50] has a small magnetic delta structure in the northeastern part of the leading penumbra. A much more significant delta exists in the central penumbra where a realtively large positive polarity umbra is sandwiched between two fairly large negative polarity umbrae. As long as this delta exists the region will continue to produce M and X flares

major M7.4 long duration event peaking at 04:50 UTC. The latter event is likely to have been associated with a large CME.
[link to www.solen.info]

we now have other regions developing and growing that could produce events
read all of solen for full report

it is going to be another busy day boys n girls
put on the coffee :)
 Quoting: NiNzrez

CME bow shock arrived this morning
Minor update added at 11:45 UTC on September 25:

A fairly weak solar wind shock was observed at ACE near 11h UTC, the arrival of the CME associated with the X1 event in region 11302 on September 22. Region 11303 generated an M1.3 flare at 07:05 and an M1.5 event at 09:35 UTC. Region 11302 was the source of an M3.1/1N event at 08:49 UTC
[link to www.solen.info]

Conditions right now are - a bit disturbed
the solar winds are remaining mostly southward
in the negative

Solar Wind: 352.6
Density: 7.6
Bz: -2.1
By: -3.3
 Quoting: NiNzrez

here is a list of regions at risk of flaring today:

Region 11295 [N24W84] developed further in the trailing penumbra which became very complex with a strong magnetic delta structure. A major flare is possible as the region rotates over the northwest limb

Region 11302 [N13E50] has a small magnetic delta structure in the northeastern part of the leading penumbra. A much more significant delta exists in the central penumbra where a realtively large positive polarity umbra is sandwiched between two fairly large negative polarity umbrae. As long as this delta exists the region will continue to produce M and X flares.

New region 11303 [S28W66] emerged in the southwest quadrant on September 23 and was numbered the next day by SWPC. The region developed rapidly during the latter half of the day with a magnetic delta structure forming in the very elongated penumbra. Further M class flaring is likely
[link to www.solen.info]

Summery:
M and X Flatres are likley today fro 1295 & 1302
M flare possible from 1303


Right Now...
Sunspot 1302:
Chance of M Flare - 60%
Chance of X Flare - 63%

Sunspot S1230:
Chance of M Flare - 52%
Chance of X Flare - 41%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Overall solar Flare Probability = 62%
 Quoting: NiNzrez


there was a large CME produced with this Flare event
M3.7 Flare on 9/25/2011 @ 15:33 UTC - sunspot 1302

here are a few images of this CME
look to your left side, you will see it coming out of sunspot region 1302

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING:
A pair of closely-spaced CMEs propelled by explosions of sunspot AR1302 on Sept. 24th are heading not-quite directly toward Earth. A significant glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field is possible on Sept. 26th around 14:00 UT (+/- 7 hours). NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of strong geomagnetic storms when the clouds arrive.
[link to spaceweather.com]


NOAA 3 Day Forecast:
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1302 (N12E47) produced
a X1/2b flare at 24/0940Z, a M7 long duration x-ray flare at
24/1320Z, and a M5 x-ray flare at 24/2036Z. Coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed in association with the first two of these
events. The second CME, which was must faster, appears to overtake
the first, and has a partial halo signature from the LASCO/Earth
perspective. Estimate speeds of the CME range between 1900 - 2600
km/s. Region 1302 produced three other flares greater than M1 during
the period. Region 1295 (N26W84) produced a M3 x-ray flare at
24/1725Z. Another large sunspot is beginning to emerge around the
East limb of the disk near N15.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on day 1 (25 September) due
to recurrent coronal hole effects. Conditions are forecast to
increase to unsettled to minor storm levels with the chance for a
major storm starting late on day 1 through midday on day 2 (26
September) due to the anticipated partial impact from the CME from
earlier today. Conditions are forecast to carry over to day 3 (27
September) with mostly unsettled to active periods expected. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain above the 10
pfu threshold for days 1 and 2, before decreasing on day 3.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


NOAA space weather alerts
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1805
Issue Time: 2011 Sep 25 1535 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2011 Sep 25 1534 UTC
Valid To: 2011 Sep 26 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

------------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 132
Issue Time: 2011 Sep 25 1158 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2011 Sep 25 1151 UTC
Deviation: 14 nT
Station: Boulder
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Last Edited by NiNzrez on 09/25/2011 01:55 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1297814
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09/25/2011 01:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Some Update:


Seems that region 1295 is rotating out of view over the north-east limb.

Two new regions, 1303 and 1304 were numbered overnight, 1303 is the larger and the more complex of the two. Region 1302 increased in size from 1520 to 1930 millionths yesterday.


:nemclssflaressep:
Images shows the regions where the M class solar flares took place 1302, 1303 and 1295




EDIT:

We have a new

2011/09/25 09:25:00 09:35:00 09:30:00 M1.5 N14E45 ( 1302 )

[link to www.lmsal.com]

So 1 X-Flare and 8 M-Flares from 1302
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 1135433
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09/25/2011 02:00 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hi NiN
 Quoting: ~Jay~


hiya Jay
hi

hugs
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 1135433
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09/25/2011 02:00 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
its super nice to see so many regulars on today
as well as some new faces
hope everyone is doing good :)
thanks to everyone for the well wishes
i am feeling a bit better and healing slow
it's the pain pills that are taking their toll on me as I'm usually a natural holistic person that does not like to even take a ibuprofen haha
i do read all your comments and they make me smile and are much appreciated
the only reason i do not reply to each and every one is because i do not wish to fill the thread with thank you and your welcome posts
much love everyone :)
smile_kiss

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 09/25/2011 02:02 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1975671
Brazil
09/25/2011 02:06 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This thread is VERY, VERY important!!!

Thanks to this thread I could realize that the Sun is really not normal in the current days!

Something unusual is REALLY happening!
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 1135433
United States
09/25/2011 02:06 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Some Update:


Seems that region 1295 is rotating out of view over the north-east limb.

Two new regions, 1303 and 1304 were numbered overnight, 1303 is the larger and the more complex of the two. Region 1302 increased in size from 1520 to 1930 millionths yesterday.


:nemclssflaressep:
Images shows the regions where the M class solar flares took place 1302, 1303 and 1295




EDIT:

We have a new

2011/09/25 09:25:00 09:35:00 09:30:00 M1.5 N14E45 ( 1302 )

[link to www.lmsal.com]

So 1 X-Flare and 8 M-Flares from 1302
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76

 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


great post
thanks for all the info you add!
it's a huge help and much appreciated IWTB
hf

here is our Sept count at the time of this post

September Flare Count:
Sept 25th:
M Flares - 6
X Flares - 0

Sept 24th:
M Flares - 9
X Flares - 1

Sept Total:
M Flares - 27
X Flares - 4

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 09/25/2011 02:08 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
zacksavage
~~Unbound~~

User ID: 1969194
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09/25/2011 02:11 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
its super nice to see so many regulars on today
as well as some new faces
hope everyone is doing good :)
thanks to everyone for the well wishes
i am feeling a bit better and healing slow
it's the pain pills that are taking their toll on me as I'm usually a natural holistic person that does not like to even take a ibuprofen haha
i do read all your comments and they make me smile and are much appreciated
the only reason i do not reply to each and every one is because i do not wish to fill the thread with thank you and your welcome posts
much love everyone :)
smile_kiss
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Namaste NiNzrez.

You can fill this thread with thanks you, your welcomes and as much love as you damn well please. Along with the important updates of course:)

People feel the love here and it shows,...

imo.
Later
Z

Last Edited by zacksavage on 09/25/2011 02:12 PM
In time we hate that which we often fear.

--- William Shakespeare
NiNzrez (OP)

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09/25/2011 02:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here is the Magnetogram image of the solar disk right now
Here we can see the inner mixing polarities in sunspot region 1302
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
here is another image where we can see the magnetic loops in 1302
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 09/25/2011 02:29 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 1978991
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09/25/2011 02:32 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
"SUN GONE CRAZY"-Today's solar Weather Forecast (could someone please embed this for me?)
[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye



 Quoting: ~Jay~


Thanks, it's an informative update.rockon
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
GodisWaiting4U
Ojos Abiertos...

User ID: 1558927
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09/25/2011 02:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi Ninzrez! I hope you're feeling better hf

Please check out this thread and if you could explain this in the simplest way, I would really appreciate it!

Thank you hf

Thread: ( ( ( GAMMA RAYS? ) ) )
aether

User ID: 1412926
United Kingdom
09/25/2011 02:37 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
funny how different cultures approach the same thing differently

In the United States an earthquake prediction program was formulated in the mid 1960s and began to hold, jointly with Japan, earthquake prediction conferences, but there existed no serious research effort in the USA until 1977, when the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program was initiated. Part of its original mandate was the development of earthquake prediction techniques and early-warning systems. However, the emphasis was shifted away from earthquake prediction in 1990, and toward mitigation of the damage, due to legislation co-sponsored by Senator Al Gore. In 1984, the Parkfield Prediction Experiment was launched. It failed to correctly predict the characteristic Parkfield earthquake on the San Andreas fault. In 1995, the National Academy of Sciences sponsored a colloquium, "Earthquake Prediction: The Scientific Challenge," which did not bring much new information about prediction.
 Quoting: usa


but in russia

In Russia the new program of development of earthquake prediction in Russia was designed by order of the President of the Russian Federation in 2004. It is targeted at increasing the reliability of long, medium, and short-term forecasting of the earthquake potential, including tsunami prediction.

The Program comprises:

................long list
 Quoting: russia

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

Last Edited by aether on 09/25/2011 02:37 PM
dogmeat2112

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09/25/2011 02:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
purely anecdotal, but for the first time ever my stereo speaker have this odd static, I'm nowhere near any new interference.
could it be the solar activity /
 Quoting: Quietwave 1398816


Check your wiring
Anonymous Coward
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09/25/2011 03:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I haven't read all the pages so I don't know if this link has been mentioned yet:
[link to stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu]

Some pretty major solar spiking going on.
Boceph
Deep East Tejas

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09/25/2011 03:29 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
a little off topic... but do you guys think a
carrington event would kill laptops and emergency
radios, etc..
Snear

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09/25/2011 03:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i think so
Anonymous Coward
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09/25/2011 03:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I haven't read all the pages so I don't know if this link has been mentioned yet:
[link to stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu]

Some pretty major solar spiking going on.
 Quoting: train


nice, thanks, I have not seen this one!
Anonymous Coward
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09/25/2011 03:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
a little off topic... but do you guys think a
carrington event would kill laptops and emergency
radios, etc..
 Quoting: Boceph


Yep- if earth facing.
Hugh M Eye

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09/25/2011 03:34 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I haven't read all the pages so I don't know if this link has been mentioned yet:
[link to stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu]

Some pretty major solar spiking going on.
 Quoting: train


Thanks, train, hadn't checked that today. You can see Stereo B, downstream from many of the CMEs from 1302,detecting high levels of energetic particles.
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1975671
Brazil
09/25/2011 03:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A new Carrington Event would be a real "doom"...
Anonymous Coward
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09/25/2011 03:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
a little off topic... but do you guys think a
carrington event would kill laptops and emergency
radios, etc..
 Quoting: Boceph


Check this out! [link to science.nasa.gov]
Spinning_Neith

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09/25/2011 03:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
For fuck's sake and the love of everything that makes SENSE!

Thread: BREAKING!!!----Why is Sirius blocked from Google Sky? Because----OUR SUN IS IN A BINARY WITH SIRIUS!
Hugh M Eye

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09/25/2011 03:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
a little off topic... but do you guys think a
carrington event would kill laptops and emergency
radios, etc..
 Quoting: Boceph


Yep- if earth facing.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1540313

No, but it would most likely kill the internet. Your radio may work but it may be impossible to hear anything but static. Most vulnerable to the build-up of electrons are long metallic things like oil & gas pipelines, long-distance electrical transmission cables, and phone cables,etc. Large transformers could overload and cause blackouts-and worse case scenario-bring down the entire electrical grid. Your battery-powered flashlight, etc. would be unaffected.
I think AC has this confused w/ EMP weapon.
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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09/25/2011 03:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
dunno if this has already been posted on this thread but here ya go anyway...

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1540313
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09/25/2011 03:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
a little off topic... but do you guys think a
carrington event would kill laptops and emergency
radios, etc..
 Quoting: Boceph


Yep- if earth facing.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1540313

No, but it would most likely kill the internet. Your radio may work but it may be impossible to hear anything but static. Most vulnerable to the build-up of electrons are long metallic things like oil & gas pipelines, long-distance electrical transmission cables, and phone cables,etc. Large transformers could overload and cause blackouts-and worse case scenario-bring down the entire electrical grid. Your battery-powered flashlight, etc. would be unaffected.
I think AC has this confused w/ EMP weapon.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


[link to science.nasa.gov] as above, laptop would be no good- I did not confuse anything.
Anonymous Coward
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09/25/2011 04:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
"SUN GONE CRAZY"-Today's solar Weather Forecast (could someone please embed this for me?)
[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye



 Quoting: ~Jay~


sun suntards should subscribe to Dr. Strong [link to www.youtube.com]
napoleanblownapart

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09/25/2011 04:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey lady im so glad your doing better.
Bless you.
Could you give me your take on this pic please.
Ive seen that ladder type thingy at 4 oclock on a lot of other pics when CMEs go off.
Thank you and best wishes.




what?
Anonymous Coward
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09/25/2011 04:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
a little off topic... but do you guys think a
carrington event would kill laptops and emergency
radios, etc..
 Quoting: Boceph


Check this out! [link to science.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1540313


thanks
Anonymous Coward
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09/25/2011 04:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here is the Magnetogram image of the solar disk right now
Here we can see the inner mixing polarities in sunspot region 1302
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
here is another image where we can see the magnetic loops in 1302
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


:post:
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 1135433
United States
09/25/2011 04:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
a little off topic... but do you guys think a
carrington event would kill laptops and emergency
radios, etc..
 Quoting: Boceph


yes it would kill laptops and all things that are ran by electricity
and thats on topic ^^
we talk about ALL things solar related in here
hf
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 1989321
United States
09/25/2011 04:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
a little off topic... but do you guys think a
carrington event would kill laptops and emergency
radios, etc..
 Quoting: Boceph


Yep- if earth facing.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1540313

No, but it would most likely kill the internet. Your radio may work but it may be impossible to hear anything but static. Most vulnerable to the build-up of electrons are long metallic things like oil & gas pipelines, long-distance electrical transmission cables, and phone cables,etc. Large transformers could overload and cause blackouts-and worse case scenario-bring down the entire electrical grid. Your battery-powered flashlight, etc. would be unaffected.
I think AC has this confused w/ EMP weapon.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


[link to science.nasa.gov] as above, laptop would be no good- I did not confuse anything.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1540313

Nothing is this article even hints that laptops would be dead. Maybe if your on the ISS,LOL. Read it again.
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein