SOLAR WATCH * 251 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

CAN anyone address this please?

its hard to tell exactly where it will hit
we can see it on STEREO A and B
though it is more clear and brighter on A and coming up in the direction that we can see the CME from earlier
this would sugest its comeing in toward the earth facing side of the sun. and more toward the western area
maybe somewhere just below 1302 would be my guess

see the CME? and look where the comet is headed
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Wow!!
[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]

[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]

[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 10/01/2011 04:18 PM

Also,take a look at this Image of Solar System Body Distribution..quite amazing and eye-opening esp. the Pattern of lay of the 'Hilda' Class Asteroids!
[link to www.astro.ncu.edu.tw]

Why do they appear to be in such a Perfect Geometric Distribution!?

Also note the Massive amount of NEO's!

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 10/01/2011 04:23 PM

Does anyone have an idea what this all boils down to, as far as CMEs directed at us and what strength they are? I have looked at so many links of pics and graphs, that the little bit I thought I had learned is now a jumbled up mess. I am confused even more than earlier.

Thank you NIN !!!

Here's a snip from [link to sidc.oma.be]



COMMENT: Solar activity is moderate. Active region Catania#85
(NOAA1305) has produced two M flares over the last 24 hours, both
associated with an Earth-directed CME. Multiple C flares and an
occasional M flare can still be expected from active regions NOAA1302
and 1305. The associated CMEs have a high chance to be geoeffective. The
solar wind speed has increased to 570km/s over the last few hours. This
will maintain the geomagnetic activity at unsettled to active levels
over the next 24 hours. Then, on Oct.3, the CME associated with the
Sept.30 M flare should arrive at Earth, triggering a minor to major
geomagnetic storm. The magnitude of the disturbance is still difficult
to establish with the currently available data. A second CME from the
Oct.1 M flare should follow soon (<12 hours) after the first one,
possibly causing a second peak in geomagnetic activity, on the wake of
the first disturbance.

What CME's from today, Oct 1st, are Earth facing?
One direct, one glancing and one off to our side.

How many CME's are we expecting to arrive at Earth, and When?
We have 3 CME's arriving and 1 glancing Blow

The 1st CME we are expecting was associated with the LED C2 Flare we had on Sept 29th
[link to www.lmsal.com]
This CME is expected to arrive sometime tomorrow, Oct 2nd.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated
active periods on days one and two (01-02 October). The increase in
activity is expected due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) on day one and possible
effects on day two from a weak CME associated with the long duration
C2 event observed on 29 September. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on day three (03 October).
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
(NOAA has not updated yet with todays, Oct 1st, events)


The 2nd CME we are expecting was associated with the M1 Flare we had on Sept 30th
[link to www.lmsal.com]
This CME is expected to arrive around Oct 3rd.

September 30: A small and slow CME was observed after an M1 event in region 11305. This CME could reach Earth on October 3
[link to www.solen.info]
"on Oct.3, the CME associated with the
Sept.30 M flare should arrive at Earth, triggering a minor to major
geomagnetic storm."
[link to sidc.oma.be]
we talked about this Sept 30th CME here
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 251 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily) (Page 377)


The 3rd CME we are expecting was associated with the M1.2 Flare we had on Oct 1st
[link to www.lmsal.com]
This CME is expected to arrive around Oct 4th

Oct 1st:
Minor updated added at 14:25 UTC on October 1: Region 11305 was the source of an M1.2/1N long duration event peaking at 09:59 UTC. The event was associated with both type II and IV radio sweeps and an apparently Earth directed CME. Expect this CME to reach Earth on October 4 and cause unsettled to major storm conditions.
[link to www.solen.info]
A second CME from the
Oct.1 M flare should follow soon (<12 hours) after the first one,
possibly causing a second peak in geomagnetic activity, on the wake of
the first disturbance.
[link to sidc.oma.be]
We talked about this CME event here
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 251 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily) (Page 382)
We can also expect at least a glancing blow from the CME produces around sunspot region 1302 during this same M Flare event.

We also have right now the solar winds from a earth facing Coronal Hole.
(bottom right side dark spot)
[link to spaceweather.com]
These coronal hole winds could add a bit of speed to the expected CME's
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated
active periods on days one and two (01-02 October). The increase in
activity is expected due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This will be updated as we gain more information on these expected CME's

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 10/01/2011 04:53 PM

Thank you! I think I actually understand most of that...amazing!! lol How about the comet? There has been talk that this may cause a CME. When should that information be available?

To ALL here. Again, my sincerest thanks for your help in helping me understand.

I am almost embarrassed to admit this, but...my husband is actually one of the hands-on team that built the stereo satellites. 90% of his work was on space craft B (behind). It was an exciting time for him. Currently he is working on two satellites that are going to study the Van Allen radiation belts. He loves his work and talks to me about it. But to me, most of it is....well you can imagine...woosh lol

he still is hot!

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

There is NO way to know how big the CME is until it comes in contact with ACE satellite and that is roughly between the Earth and the Sun.
There is alot more risk if there is a X-Flare then CME following.

look at these images of the comet!

look at all the top links in the while body area of the site
[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]

they have the images
good questions is....
WHY they dont post them as updates images on the SOHO site?


Last Edited by NiNzrez on 10/01/2011 05:40 PM

There is alot of Darker Filaments in this Image of Sol currently that look like they are ready to start Peeling away from the Surface,
Top-Right stretching through the Top-Mid Latitude and Mid-Bottom winding through to the Bottom-Left,which already looks like it may of began Peeling itself away from the Surface at the Time the Image was Taken..
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 10/01/2011 10:15 PM

22:54 image
showtime:
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Not a one of those images would load for me. Just the little boxes with the red X inside. hmmm

That sounds ominous.

thats a computer issue
move to firefox

I just tried firefox and chrome but I can't view the image either.

Is it likely that the latest CME will be as powerful as the last one that hit but just as a glancing blow? Many scientists said that if that last one had been a direct hit it could have been very bad for us so that's what I am wondering.

damn
here...
look at all the top links in the while body area of the site
[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]

Keeping my fingers crossed that all will be ok.

WHOOOOOP
THERE IT IS!

[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]

look at that!

Wow! there we go...

[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]

Houston, we have a problem...

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Is it confirmed that it will indeed be earth facing? Does not mean it could disrupt things all over the earth or will it depend on certain factors?

WHOA! It's lookin' pretty serious to me. And don't forget that theres two smaller ones clearing a path for this one.

[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]
[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]

Ok, what is the scale is it earth directed or is it just nice fireworks?

I've no idea why links aren't working. Go here to homepage of latest images and check out COR 2 and COR 2 Difference.

[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

XRAY silent