SOLAR WATCH * 248 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

You don't say.




Z

Niiiight all

According to Belgium's Solar Influence data Center (SIDC) there are 3 CME's expected. All three have slow velocity and mild to moderate geomagnetic disturbances are anticipated. These originated from #1305's recent M-flares of Sept. 30, Oct 1st, Oct. 2nd.
[link to sidc.oma.be]

SIDC bases their CME alerts on SOHO Lasco images; given the huge gaps we've seen in this imagery, alerts may be somewhat sketchy IMHO.
[link to sidc.oma.be]

Looking at the latest images from Stereo B HI2 I think we can expect the arrival of the CME that was ejected during the M1.0 flare that peaked at 19:03UT on 9/30/2011, within the next few hours. Here you can see the progression of the ICME across the Stereo B HI2 field of view.

For reference, in this first image from yesterday 10/02/2011 at 15:48UT we see that things are relatively unremarkable. See image below...
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

In this image (below)from from 3:48UT today 10/03/2011, we see an ICME wave enter the image from the left side, seen here as that shadowed Bow. Earth can be seen in this image, it is the small bright white dot with a line running down the image from it, and to the right of it Jupiter the black dot with a black line running down from it. The larger black dimple to the left is the star system Pleiades, light years off in the background.
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Here at 05:48UT today 10/03/2011, we see the progression of this ICME. See image below.
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

In this latest image from Stereo B HI2 at 15:48UT 10/03/2011, we can see that this ICME has made a rapid progression across the imagers field of view and is close approaching. See image below.
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
This looks even worse today

Wow! that is a substantial increase.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2011 Oct 03 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1302 (N13W69) produced the largest event of the
period, a C7/2n x-ray flare at 03/0030Z. Region 1302 remains the
largest sunspot group on the visible disk but has begun to simplify
magnetically and decrease in size. Many of the regions on the disk,
also appear to be in a waning phase. In the southeast quadrant of
the disk, two new flux regions emerged with one becoming new Region
1310 (S33E16).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels for the next two days (04-05 October), as Region 1302
rotates off the west limb. Predominantly very low levels are
expected to prevail on day three (06 October).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft,
show nominal speeds around 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (04 October). An increase
to active and possible minor storm levels is expected on days two
and three (05-06 October) as three Earthbound CMEs are forecasted
to arrive.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M 20/15/01
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 129
Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 03 Oct 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 005/005-015/015-018/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/30/35
Minor storm 01/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/40/40
Minor storm 05/30/30
Major-severe storm 01/05/05


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA forcasting this 1st CME to arrive 5 full days after it erupted.
WOW!

I guess we will will see!

Great info, Tom. That wave is clearly visible in the images. Magnetic field lines have been slowly opening up. Nothing too dramatic, though. Quiet day so far.
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Woah... WTF is happening on the other side of the sun? Is that normal?

She has went to sleep on us...

The Chlorine Monoxide that could have helped increase the Ozone Depletion could of come from the Icelandic Eruptions ..
Eyjafjallajökull released a massive cloud of 'Bleach'(Chlorine)..
[link to www.sciencedaily.com]

They can blame Fridges if they want..but we know otherwise.

Does look fairly disconcerting doesnt' it!?

Perhaps the Comet caused alot of Magnetic disruption to Sols' Fields resulting in this Solar Acne?

Who knows!?

After reading the posts and the links, am I correct in thinking that nothing too awfully bad is going to hit us over the next two days? I am learning but don't want to assume anything.

Hi Shenue, A good site to go to learn more about the sun is [link to prop.hfradio.org]
They have some good videos on what the sun is doing.

Thank you old guard

Good night everyone........peace

Is it me did those 5 mini spots from yesterday turn into one big MEGA SPOT?

We might see one of the biggest sunspots in history....fascinating stuff!

The **** hits the fan on October 11th.
For 18 Days, from 11th to 28th we are going to have a rough ride.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
whats this all about

Woke up a bit

C7.3

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Interesting..
The 7th day of the 9th wave of the mayan callendar begins on 11th of oct.2011 and it ends on 28th of oct.2011. On the very day that mayan calendar comes to the end.

The source: dr. Carl Johann Calleman

Good Morning all,


Region 1302 is now approaching the north-west limb and decaying, it is now only a Beta type group at 320 millionths. Region 1305 also decreased in size to 250 millionths and magnetic complexity to a Beta type group.

All the other regions are small and quiet. There is a large spot appearing at the north-east limb, this could be the return of old region 1300

:newspotsoct4:

Good Morning and a peaceful day/evening to everyone.

Man all them M flares last weekend and nothing has reached the magnetosphere yet..what is up with that??

how so?

hi bro!

well lets wait a bit...the show will start soon

Yeah. I'm concerned that they later ones have caught up to the earlier ones, and it's going to be a dense one. Is that an accurate assumption? In theory, it makes sense to me.

Is there any possibility that a big Coronal Mass Ejection generated hundreds of years ago in a star other than the Sun (for example: Sirius) can hit the Earth in the present, after traveling through the space for many years?

That's a GREAT question. Never even considered such a possibility .....

IWTB, or anyone, how big of a show and when, please? Need to know how much to prepare.
Thank you for whatever info you can give to me. I just have had a terrible problem getting a handle on the sun information. For someone who graduated with honors, this sun stuff has really gotten me ..... well, feeling pretty stupid.