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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
zacksavage
~~Unbound~~

User ID: 2461694
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10/03/2011 04:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
They launched their friggin space station with our song. Man, we really have spiraled downward as a country. We wave American flags that are made in China and the only thing in China that is made in America is our money.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1819063


You don't say.




Z
In time we hate that which we often fear.

--- William Shakespeare
Anonymous Coward
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10/03/2011 05:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Niiiight allhf
Hugh M Eye

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10/03/2011 05:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
According to Belgium's Solar Influence data Center (SIDC) there are 3 CME's expected. All three have slow velocity and mild to moderate geomagnetic disturbances are anticipated. These originated from #1305's recent M-flares of Sept. 30, Oct 1st, Oct. 2nd.
[link to sidc.oma.be]

SIDC bases their CME alerts on SOHO Lasco images; given the huge gaps we've seen in this imagery, alerts may be somewhat sketchy IMHO.
[link to sidc.oma.be]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
tomasgod1

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10/03/2011 06:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looking at the latest images from Stereo B HI2 I think we can expect the arrival of the CME that was ejected during the M1.0 flare that peaked at 19:03UT on 9/30/2011, within the next few hours. Here you can see the progression of the ICME across the Stereo B HI2 field of view.

For reference, in this first image from yesterday 10/02/2011 at 15:48UT we see that things are relatively unremarkable. See image below...
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

In this image (below)from from 3:48UT today 10/03/2011, we see an ICME wave enter the image from the left side, seen here as that shadowed Bow. Earth can be seen in this image, it is the small bright white dot with a line running down the image from it, and to the right of it Jupiter the black dot with a black line running down from it. The larger black dimple to the left is the star system Pleiades, light years off in the background.
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Here at 05:48UT today 10/03/2011, we see the progression of this ICME. See image below.
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

In this latest image from Stereo B HI2 at 15:48UT 10/03/2011, we can see that this ICME has made a rapid progression across the imagers field of view and is close approaching. See image below.
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
_______

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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Anonymous Coward
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10/03/2011 06:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
This looks even worse today
tomasgod1

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10/03/2011 06:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
This looks even worse today
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


Wow! that is a substantial increase.
_______

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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
tomasgod1

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10/03/2011 06:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2011 Oct 03 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1302 (N13W69) produced the largest event of the
period, a C7/2n x-ray flare at 03/0030Z. Region 1302 remains the
largest sunspot group on the visible disk but has begun to simplify
magnetically and decrease in size. Many of the regions on the disk,
also appear to be in a waning phase. In the southeast quadrant of
the disk, two new flux regions emerged with one becoming new Region
1310 (S33E16).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels for the next two days (04-05 October), as Region 1302
rotates off the west limb. Predominantly very low levels are
expected to prevail on day three (06 October).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft,
show nominal speeds around 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (04 October). An increase
to active and possible minor storm levels is expected on days two
and three (05-06 October) as three Earthbound CMEs are forecasted
to arrive.


III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M 20/15/01
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 129
Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 03 Oct 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 005/005-015/015-018/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/30/35
Minor storm 01/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/40/40
Minor storm 05/30/30
Major-severe storm 01/05/05


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA forcasting this 1st CME to arrive 5 full days after it erupted.
WOW!


I guess we will will see!
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 2585569
United States
10/03/2011 06:58 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looking at the latest images from Stereo B HI2 I think we can expect the arrival of the CME that was ejected during the M1.0 flare that peaked at 19:03UT on 9/30/2011, within the next few hours. Here you can see the progression of the ICME across the Stereo B HI2 field of view.

For reference, in this first image from yesterday 10/02/2011 at 15:48UT we see that things are relatively unremarkable. See image below...
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

In this image (below)from from 3:48UT today 10/03/2011, we see an ICME wave enter the image from the left side, seen here as that shadowed Bow. Earth can be seen in this image, it is the small bright white dot with a line running down the image from it, and to the right of it Jupiter the black dot with a black line running down from it. The larger black dimple to the left is the star system Pleiades, light years off in the background.
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Here at 05:48UT today 10/03/2011, we see the progression of this ICME. See image below.
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

In this latest image from Stereo B HI2 at 15:48UT 10/03/2011, we can see that this ICME has made a rapid progression across the imagers field of view and is close approaching. See image below.
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Great info, Tom. That wave is clearly visible in the images. Magnetic field lines have been slowly opening up. Nothing too dramatic, though. Quiet day so far.
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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10/03/2011 07:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
This looks even worse today
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


Woah... WTF is happening on the other side of the sun? Is that normal?
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

User ID: 2595170
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10/03/2011 07:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
boring

She has went to sleep on us...
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 1364113
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10/03/2011 07:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.nasa.gov]

I saw this too today
 Quoting: TryToGetTheTruth


The Chlorine Monoxide that could have helped increase the Ozone Depletion could of come from the Icelandic Eruptions ..
Eyjafjallajökull released a massive cloud of 'Bleach'(Chlorine)..
[link to www.sciencedaily.com]

They can blame Fridges if they want..but we know otherwise.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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10/03/2011 07:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
This looks even worse today
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


Woah... WTF is happening on the other side of the sun? Is that normal?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1619119


Does look fairly disconcerting doesnt' it!?

Perhaps the Comet caused alot of Magnetic disruption to Sols' Fields resulting in this Solar Acne?

Who knows!?

scratching
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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10/03/2011 08:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
After reading the posts and the links, am I correct in thinking that nothing too awfully bad is going to hit us over the next two days? I am learning but don't want to assume anything.
old guard

User ID: 1405158
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10/03/2011 08:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
After reading the posts and the links, am I correct in thinking that nothing too awfully bad is going to hit us over the next two days? I am learning but don't want to assume anything.
 Quoting: Shenue


Hi Shenue, A good site to go to learn more about the sun is [link to prop.hfradio.org]
They have some good videos on what the sun is doing.
Anonymous Coward
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10/03/2011 08:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
After reading the posts and the links, am I correct in thinking that nothing too awfully bad is going to hit us over the next two days? I am learning but don't want to assume anything.
 Quoting: Shenue


Hi Shenue, A good site to go to learn more about the sun is [link to prop.hfradio.org]
They have some good videos on what the sun is doing.
 Quoting: old guard


Thank you old guard
Anonymous Coward
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10/03/2011 10:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good night everyone........peace
Anonymous Coward
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10/04/2011 12:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
This looks even worse today
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


Woah... WTF is happening on the other side of the sun? Is that normal?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1619119


Is it me did those 5 mini spots from yesterday turn into one big MEGA SPOT?

We might see one of the biggest sunspots in history....fascinating stuff!
Anonymous Coward
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10/04/2011 03:21 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The **** hits the fan on October 11th.
For 18 Days, from 11th to 28th we are going to have a rough ride.
Anonymous Coward
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10/04/2011 03:27 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
whats this all about
SheBear

User ID: 1963891
Australia
10/04/2011 05:48 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Woke up a bit

C7.3

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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10/04/2011 06:20 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The **** hits the fan on October 11th.
For 18 Days, from 11th to 28th we are going to have a rough ride.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2616961


Interesting..
The 7th day of the 9th wave of the mayan callendar begins on 11th of oct.2011 and it ends on 28th of oct.2011. On the very day that mayan calendar comes to the end.

The source: dr. Carl Johann Calleman
Anonymous Coward
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10/04/2011 06:53 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good Morning allhf,


Region 1302 is now approaching the north-west limb and decaying, it is now only a Beta type group at 320 millionths. Region 1305 also decreased in size to 250 millionths and magnetic complexity to a Beta type group.

All the other regions are small and quiet. There is a large spot appearing at the north-east limb, this could be the return of old region 1300

:newspotsoct4:
Anonymous Coward
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10/04/2011 07:14 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good Morning and a peaceful day/evening to everyone.
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

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10/04/2011 07:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Man all them M flares last weekend and nothing has reached the magnetosphere yet..what is up with that??
Anonymous Coward
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10/04/2011 08:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The **** hits the fan on October 11th.
For 18 Days, from 11th to 28th we are going to have a rough ride.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2616961


how so?
Anonymous Coward
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10/04/2011 08:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Man all them M flares last weekend and nothing has reached the magnetosphere yet..what is up with that??
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


hi bro!hf

well lets wait a bit...the show will start soon
Anonymous Coward
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10/04/2011 08:21 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Man all them M flares last weekend and nothing has reached the magnetosphere yet..what is up with that??
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


hi bro!hf

well lets wait a bit...the show will start soon
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Yeah. I'm concerned that they later ones have caught up to the earlier ones, and it's going to be a dense one. Is that an accurate assumption? In theory, it makes sense to me.
Anonymous Coward
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10/04/2011 08:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is there any possibility that a big Coronal Mass Ejection generated hundreds of years ago in a star other than the Sun (for example: Sirius) can hit the Earth in the present, after traveling through the space for many years?
TruthSeeker66

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10/04/2011 09:09 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is there any possibility that a big Coronal Mass Ejection generated hundreds of years ago in a star other than the Sun (for example: Sirius) can hit the Earth in the present, after traveling through the space for many years?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1548221


That's a GREAT question. Never even considered such a possibility .....
Anonymous Coward
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10/04/2011 09:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Man all them M flares last weekend and nothing has reached the magnetosphere yet..what is up with that??
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


hi bro!hf

well lets wait a bit...the show will start soon
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


IWTB, or anyone, how big of a show and when, please? Need to know how much to prepare.
Thank you for whatever info you can give to me. I just have had a terrible problem getting a handle on the sun information. For someone who graduated with honors, this sun stuff has really gotten me ..... well, feeling pretty stupid.

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