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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
TryToGetTheTruth

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10/04/2011 11:50 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I can't answer a lot of your questions, but on this page of this thread: Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nin, puts her updates on the arrivals of the CMEs. Might give you guys some answers..hf
 Quoting: Mahala


Nope, nowhere in the update does it mention any cme's from sunspot 1309. Still a mystery, but I will get to the bottom of it..lol

I have found absolutely nothing on 1309, other than the article in earthchangesmedia.

Last Edited by TryToGetTheTruth on 10/05/2011 12:00 AM
Open mind required !

I am in SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO, CANADA
Anonymous Coward
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10/05/2011 12:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Did any of the earthbound CME's arrive yet?
I don't know how to interpret the graphs linked on page 1,
but visually there doesn't seem to be an uptick in geomagnetic activity.
Mahala

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10/05/2011 12:20 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I can't answer a lot of your questions, but on this page of this thread: Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nin, puts her updates on the arrivals of the CMEs. Might give you guys some answers..hf
 Quoting: Mahala


Nope, nowhere in the update does it mention any cme's from sunspot 1309. Still a mystery, but I will get to the bottom of it..lol

I have found absolutely nothing on 1309, other than the article in earthchangesmedia.
 Quoting: TryToGetTheTruth


I tried looking also and got the same as you..
Vincent Price - “A man who limits his interests, limits his life.”
tomasgod1

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10/05/2011 01:12 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey Guys,

I thought I would try to clear up some of the confusion.

First off, I am concerned about NiN as we were in the middle of a long IM session on the 2nd when she disappeared. I have not heard from her since. I have sent her an e-mail, lets just hope it is something simple.

There was a backside CME today and while it is impressive on SOHO it is not Earth directed. Here we can see the CME leaving the solar disk from Stereo B C2 at 13:55UT, 10/04/2011. This is the last update from Stereo B. The Stereo Sats are riddled with lags and missing time today. See image below.

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

The second incidence of significance was a CME from Region 1310 that began approx. 11:00UT, 10/04/2011. This CME can be seen on SDO during a slideshow by running a loop for the day. It can be seen well in several AIAs but you may like the composition 094,335,193. Here is an image of that CME with that comp. See image below.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

The third major eruption we see today is a filament lift off of the SE limb. This eruption took place between 11:43 and 13:56UT, 10/04/2011. Here is an image from SDO AIA 304 of that eruption. Although the image looks more like a solar prominence than a fliament, after reviewing the SDO data I belive it was a filament. I would not expect this event to be geoeffective. See image below.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Finally, and probably the most important event of the day was a Filament Eruption from the Earth facing side of the disk beginning at 14:27UT and continuing through the last SDO image on AIA 304 at 17:30UT, 10/04/2011. This eruption snapped back from the SW limb to its attachment point on the front side of the disk. This is earth facing and has a high probability of being geoeffective. Here is the latest image of that eruption from SDO AIA 304. See images below.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Here is an image of this filament eruption as seen from Stereo A C2.

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

I hope this helps to answer some of your questions.


sunglasses

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 10/05/2011 02:15 AM
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Southern Lighthouse

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10/05/2011 01:19 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi all! Where's NIN? I'm worried.

u2efine
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Mahala

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10/05/2011 01:23 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey Guys,

I thought I would try to clear up some of the confusion.

First off, I am concerned about NiN as we were in the middle of a long IM session when she disappeared. I have not heard from her since. I have sent her an e-mail, lets just hope it is something simple.

There was a backside CME today and while it is impressive on SOHO it is not Earth directed. Here we can see the CME leaving the solar disk from Stereo B C2 at 13:55UT 10/04/2011. This is the last update from Stereo B. The Stereo Sats are riddled with lags and missing time today. See image below.

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

The second incidence of significance was a CME from Region 1310 that began approx. 1100UT 10/04/2011. This CME can be seen on SDO during a slideshow by running the loop the day. It can be seen well in several AIAs but you may like the composition 094,335,193. Here is an image of that CME with that comp. See image below.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

The third major eruption we see today is a filament lift off of the SE limb. This eruption took place between 11:43 and 13:56UT 10/04/2011. Here is an image from SDO AIA 304 of that eruption. Although the image looks more like a solar prominence than a fliament, but after reviewing the SDO data I belive it was a filament. I would not expect this event to be geoeffective. See image below.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Finally, and probably the most important event of the day was a Filament Eruption from the Earth facing side of the disk beginnind at 14:27UT and continuing through the last SDO image on AIA 304 at 17:30UT, 10/04/2011. This eruption lifted back from the SW limb to its attachment point on the front side of the disk. This is earth facing and has a high probability of being geoeffective. Here is the latest image of that eruption from SDO AIA 304. See images below.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Here is an image of this filament eruption as seen from Stereo A C2.

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

I hope this helps to answer some of your questions.


sunglasses
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Thanks Tom..sunbrnohmgty
Vincent Price - “A man who limits his interests, limits his life.”
Tipkat
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10/05/2011 01:59 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

Hey Guys,

I thought I would try to clear up some of the confusion.

First off, I am concerned about NiN as we were in the middle of a long IM session on the 22nd when she disappeared. I have not heard from her since. I have sent her an e-mail, lets just hope it is something simple.




Hi Tom....Nin's last post according to the thread here was on 10/2/11 at 10:34 PM. Maybe she'll be on tomorrow? Everyone needs a day to themselves ;-) Tip
tomasgod1

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10/05/2011 02:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here are the NASA ISWA predicted time of arrivals for 3 CMEs scheduled to arrive (according to their predictions)later today. Two of them are identicle minus a variance in the onset/end time of 2 seconds, meaning they think these two have merged. I will post all three in order of their issued date/time.



Event Issue Date: 2011-10-03 15:39:41.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2011-10-05 11:23:07.0 GMT

Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 14 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.5 Re
Wed, 05 Oct 2011 11:23:07 GMT
Thu, 06 Oct 2011 02:23:07 GMT


Event Issue Date: 2011-10-03 16:05:27.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2011-10-05 10:48:04.0 GMT

Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 15 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.5 Re
Wed, 05 Oct 2011 10:48:04 GMT


Event Issue Date: 2011-10-03 16:44:22.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2011-10-05 11:23:04.0 GMT

Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 14 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.5 Re
Wed, 05 Oct 2011 11:23:04 GMT
Thu, 06 Oct 2011 02:23:04 GMT


[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
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tomasgod1

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10/05/2011 02:14 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

Hey Guys,

I thought I would try to clear up some of the confusion.

First off, I am concerned about NiN as we were in the middle of a long IM session on the 22nd when she disappeared. I have not heard from her since. I have sent her an e-mail, lets just hope it is something simple.




Hi Tom....Nin's last post according to the thread here was on 10/2/11 at 10:34 PM. Maybe she'll be on tomorrow? Everyone needs a day to themselves ;-) Tip
 Quoting: tomasgod1


I meant the 2nd. Typo! Yes, hopefully everything is fine. :)
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Anonymous Coward
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10/05/2011 02:27 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Isis7
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10/05/2011 02:29 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Earth Directed CME!!

But where did it come from......nothing showing on Flux Chart?!?!?!?

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2448589


hi
I found this on Space Weather.

DOUBLE ERUPTION: On October 1st around 10:17 UT, widely-spaced sunspots 1302 and 1305 erupted in quick succession, revealing a long-distance entanglement which was not obvious before. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) recorded the double blast:

Since it was launched in 2010, SDO has observed many "entangled eruptions." Active regions far apart but linked by magnetic fields can explode one after another, with disturbances spreading around the stellar surface domino-style. Saturday's eruption appears to be the latest example.

The part of the eruption centered on sunspot 1305 hurled a coronal mass ejection toward Earth. The relatively slow-moving (500 km/s) cloud is expected to reach our planet on Oct. 4th or 5th, possibly causing geomagnetic storms when it arrives.
High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras
[link to spaceweather.com]

hf
TruthSeeker66

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10/05/2011 03:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This is the big Flare everyone's talking about From October 4th.

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

SNIP

Yesterday, October 4th, something exploded on the far side of the sun and propelled a spectacular CME into space. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the cloud as it emerged from behind the sun's limb:

It's not earth facing. Any resulting energies went out into space.

The only solar flares within a 24 hour period:
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 0025 UT Oct05
24-hr: C2 0025 UT Oct05

And CME intensity maxed at K2 (quiet) for the past 24 hrs:
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet

Read more at :

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

Geomagnetic Storm probabilities are also listed on this site, lower left hand. These will reflect the flares and resulting CME's from Oct.2 on.

This is one of the better site's for solar graph illiterates like myself, when our OP and team are getting some down time.hf
Bookmark it for peace of mind !

Last Edited by *Christine* on 10/05/2011 04:13 AM
Isis7
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10/05/2011 03:09 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I can't answer a lot of your questions, but on this page of this thread: Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nin, puts her updates on the arrivals of the CMEs. Might give you guys some answers..hf
 Quoting: Mahala


Nope, nowhere in the update does it mention any cme's from sunspot 1309. Still a mystery, but I will get to the bottom of it..lol

I have found absolutely nothing on 1309, other than the article in earthchangesmedia.
 Quoting: TryToGetTheTruth


flower

Double eruption on Sun
By chillymanjaro
– October 2, 2011Posted in: Solar activities, Solar Watch, Space Weather
An aurora watch will be in effect within the next 48-72 hours due to the expected arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) caused by a long duration M1.2 solar flare around Sunspot 1305 on Saturday morning. This region will remain capable of producing Moderate solar flares. Sunspot 1302 which was previously very active with major solar flares, continues to gradually shrink in size and will soon rotate towards the western limb. A new sunspot that rotated into view on the northeast limb and was numbered 1309 on Sunday.

[link to thewatchers.adorraeli.com]
tomasgod1

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10/05/2011 03:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Heads Up!
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
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tomasgod1

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10/05/2011 04:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here we see a jump in the proton flux.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Here we see the electron flux taking a tumble.


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

It looks like are getting underway.

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
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tomasgod1

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10/05/2011 04:24 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 134
Issue Time: 2011 Oct 05 0800 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2011 Oct 05 0742 UTC
Deviation: 19 nT
Station: KBOU


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
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tomasgod1

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1821
Issue Time: 2011 Oct 05 0805 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2011 Oct 05 0805 UTC
Valid To: 2011 Oct 05 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
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10/05/2011 04:31 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good Morning allhf,


first some sunspot updates^^:


Two new regions were numbered 1311 and 1312. Region 1312 is now the largest group visible at 210 mullionths but is only a single spot group. No flares are expected from 1312.

Region 1305 is the most complex and produced the C7 solar flare yesterday.

A C2 solar flare peaked at 0025z this morning from the south-east limb.

An active region in the northern hemisphere is about 4 days away from rotating into view and still looks to be producing solar flares.







:newspotsoct5:
Image shows you the visible and new spots
Enlarge:

[link to www.solen.info]


and RWC BELGIUM Wed Oct 5 2011, 0709 UT reports:

A halo CME alert was sent. It was first seen in SOHO/LASCO on Oct 04 at 12:12UT. CACTus estimated a speed of 573 km/s. A coronal dimming and EUV wave was seen in the southern hemisphere in the vicinity of NOAA AR 1310. At arrival at Earth, the CME might cause active conditions. We expect it to arrive probably on Oct 08. A shock arrived at ACE around 06:45UT. This arrival is linked with the CME activity of Sep 30, Oct 1 and 2. The IMF is 10nT and the solar wind speed 440 km/s. Unsettled to active conditions are possible.

[link to sidc.oma.be]
tomasgod1

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10/05/2011 04:35 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Canadian Magnetometers.
[link to geomag.nrcan.gc.ca]
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10/05/2011 04:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

we have impact
Anonymous Coward
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10/05/2011 04:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Canadian Magnetometers.
[link to geomag.nrcan.gc.ca]
 Quoting: tomasgod1



Mooorning TOM!hf

cool stuff,didnt know that!
tomasgod1

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10/05/2011 04:42 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Canadian Magnetometers.
[link to geomag.nrcan.gc.ca]
 Quoting: tomasgod1



Mooorning TOM!hf

cool stuff,didnt know that!
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Good Morning IWTB, nice to have your company!
sunglasses
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10/05/2011 05:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Canadian Magnetometers.
[link to geomag.nrcan.gc.ca]
 Quoting: tomasgod1



Mooorning TOM!hf

cool stuff,didnt know that!
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Good morning to you
Southern Lighthouse

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10/05/2011 06:24 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Canadian Magnetometers.
[link to geomag.nrcan.gc.ca]
 Quoting: tomasgod1



Mooorning TOM!hf

cool stuff,didnt know that!
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Good Morning IWTB, nice to have your company!
sunglasses
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Good morning all! Off to a busy start this morning, I see. Has anyone heard from NIN yet? I have an unsettled feeling, maybe it's out of concern for her well being after that awful accident? IDK, I'm sending up prayers nonetheless. I sure hope she pops in to say hello soon. Have a blessed beyond measure kind of day everyone! So thankful for all of your expertise in this arena! This thread is my last stop before I crawl in bed at night and my first stop every morning with my coffee. Love to you all!

red_hearthappyheartred_heart
Love & Light from a Southern Lighthouse...
Anonymous Coward
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10/05/2011 07:00 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
lame flares as of lately.
old guard

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10/05/2011 07:39 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like one is starting to affect us
solar wind- 451
density- 10.1 protons
Bz-6.4nT South

[link to www.spaceweather.com]
old guard

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10/05/2011 07:45 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The magnetosphere doesn't look good

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Last Edited by old guard on 10/05/2011 07:45 AM
Anonymous Coward
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10/05/2011 07:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The magnetosphere doesn't look good

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: old guard


Can you elaborate, please?
old guard

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10/05/2011 07:51 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The Bz continues to rise
7.3nT South

[link to www.spaceweather.com]
old guard

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10/05/2011 08:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The magnetosphere doesn't look good

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: old guard


Can you elaborate, please?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1619119


go to this site, and on the left is explanations of the things I am referring to. If I tried to explain it, I would just mess it up.

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

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