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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
tomasgod1

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10/08/2011 01:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi everyone,hi

We currently have a lull in activity. I thought I would go ahead and post NOAA's 3 day forecast.


Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2011 Oct 07 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1313 (S16E39) produced a
C1/Sf at 07/0121Z. Region 1305 (N11W91) continued to produce C-class
activity as it rotated around the west limb. All of the other
regions on the disk remained relatively stable during the past 24
hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for moderate activity for the next three days
(08-10 October).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (08 October). Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (09-10
October) due to effects from a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 122
Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 125/130/130
90 Day Mean 07 Oct 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 005/005-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/15
Minor storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/15
Minor storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 10/08/2011 01:28 PM
_______

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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2011 01:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Today the Draconian meteor shower starts, at around 3 P.M. PT
it's almost like a CME :D Supposedly 1000 meteors per hour,
and it's already linked to the Book Of Revelation, etc!

Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2011 10:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good night......peace and safety to all.
Vidal Sasoon
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10/08/2011 10:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Today the Draconian meteor shower starts, at around 3 P.M. PT
it's almost like a CME :D Supposedly 1000 meteors per hour,
and it's already linked to the Book Of Revelation, etc!


 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1546285


Did they nk it last year when it happened too? And the year before that and the year before that? Yes surprise it is an annual event.
And so on
XP...

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10/08/2011 10:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sun is scary quite!!!
"The world will not be destroyed by evil, it will be destroyed by the ones who do nothing to stop the evil."
"Lead or follow just get the hell out of my way!"
XP...
Anonymous Coward
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10/09/2011 05:18 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Did they nk it last year when it happened too? And the year before that and the year before that? Yes surprise it is an annual event.
And so on
 Quoting: Vidal Sasoon 929689


I'm pretty new to all this DOOM stuff :D
I didn't see a single meteor!
It looks like a new batch of solar warnings are being released:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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10/09/2011 05:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
GoodMorning all,


some sunspotUpdate:

Region 1305 rotated out of view yesterday and is due back to return into view around the 23rd

Region 1306 decayed and disappeared

There are now five groups visible, all are decaying or stable the largest group is region 1312

this is a large single spot type group at 200 millionths.

A new group started to rotate into view yesterday, one large spot is currently visible but there is a good chance that other spots are associated with this group and will become visible today


:newsunspotoct9:
Image shows a close up view of the new region at the north-east limb




OverviewSunspots:
[link to www.solen.info]
Anonymous Coward
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10/09/2011 09:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning. Peace and safety to all.
aether

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10/09/2011 09:42 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
good morning

peace today rockon
Anonymous Coward
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10/09/2011 10:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thought this would be of interest to you all.

Here we go, folks.

Volcanic eruption alert on Spanish Canary Island

MADRID (AP) — The regional government of the Spanish Canary Island of El Hierro has issued a volcanic eruption alert following almost 10,000 small tremors recorded in the past three months...

[link to www.google.com]
Anonymous Coward
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10/09/2011 11:41 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nothing rly huge atm but anyway:

Several B class and a C1 solar flare took place





C1 Flare peaking at 13:27:00 2011/10/09:
[link to www.lmsal.com]

The source of these solar flares is the active region(s) just around the north-east limb

[link to www.solarham.com]

Enlarge overview:
[link to www.solen.info]


Maybe its a bit early to say but this large sunspot group which rotate into view on the north east limb is a single spot group


:flareoct9:
This image shows you the bright spot on the left where a B6 solar flare took place this morning
Isis7
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10/09/2011 01:03 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi everyone,

What is this? Can someone tell me? PLEASE!

I've watched this satellites but never saw anything of the likes before.

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Hopefully it's just some reflection or malfunction of some sort...


uhoh
Anonymous Coward
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10/09/2011 01:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi everyone,

What is this? Can someone tell me? PLEASE!

I've watched this satellites but never saw anything of the likes before.

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Hopefully it's just some reflection or malfunction of some sort...


uhoh
 Quoting: Isis7


Hi Isishf


plz have a look at stereo A movie:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]



i guess u mean the cme down to the right

Where is Stereo A:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Luckily not earth directed
tomasgod1

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10/09/2011 01:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey guys,

Here is the latest forecast from NOAA.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2011 Oct 08 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1309 (N22W11) produced
the lone C-class event at 08/0420Z. All of the regions on the disk
remained relatively stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (09-11 October).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (09-10
October) due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (11 October)
as the effects from the CH HSS subside.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 118
Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 08 Oct 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 010/012-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/20/05
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Anonymous Coward
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10/09/2011 02:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey guys,

Here is the latest forecast from NOAA.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2011 Oct 08 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1309 (N22W11) produced
the lone C-class event at 08/0420Z. All of the regions on the disk
remained relatively stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (09-11 October).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (09-10
October) due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (11 October)
as the effects from the CH HSS subside.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 118
Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 08 Oct 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 010/012-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/20/05
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


glad to see you tom!hf
Weapon X Jacobs

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10/09/2011 02:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
GoodMorning all,


some sunspotUpdate:

Region 1305 rotated out of view yesterday and is due back to return into view around the 23rd

Region 1306 decayed and disappeared

There are now five groups visible, all are decaying or stable the largest group is region 1312

this is a large single spot type group at 200 millionths.

A new group started to rotate into view yesterday, one large spot is currently visible but there is a good chance that other spots are associated with this group and will become visible today


:newsunspotoct9:
Image shows a close up view of the new region at the north-east limb




OverviewSunspots:
[link to www.solen.info]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Looks like a Beast! We'll see
youtube.com/wolfmanjacobs (if you want to see me spinning backfist someone)
Anonymous Coward
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10/09/2011 02:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi Tom

Thanks for the updates. Busy weekend for me.

Hi IWTB. Nice to here you.

Strange videos on iss thread yesterday will look it up.

cool2
tomasgod1

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10/09/2011 02:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I was following the K alerts being issued by NOAA this late last night/early morning. They had issued a warning just prior to 24:00 UT on the 8th, for a K index of 4. The serial was 1824. Then this..

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 1546
Issue Time: 2011 Oct 09 0348 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2011 Oct 09 0348 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Station: Boulder
Active Warning: Yes

and this one..

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1825
Issue Time: 2011 Oct 09 0458 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1824
Valid From: 2011 Oct 08 2345 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2011 Oct 09 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset



And this...
Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 732
Issue Time: 2011 Oct 09 0400 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2011 Oct 09 0415 UTC
Valid To: 2011 Oct 09 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

There were no Warnings/Alerts prior to 23:45UT for the 8th.

They have since went back and done THIS!..

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1826
Issue Time: 2011 Oct 09 0856 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1825
Valid From: 2011 Oct 08 2345 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2011 Oct 08 1500 UTC

Warning Condition: Persistence

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The original serial 1824 has disapeared altogether!

For me the question is this. What is the point of going back and issuing a warning for a K index watch of 4, after the time has come and gone? What are they up to?

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 10/09/2011 02:44 PM
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
tomasgod1

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10/09/2011 02:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nothing rly huge atm but anyway:

Several B class and a C1 solar flare took place





C1 Flare peaking at 13:27:00 2011/10/09:
[link to www.lmsal.com]

The source of these solar flares is the active region(s) just around the north-east limb

[link to www.solarham.com]

Enlarge overview:
[link to www.solen.info]


Maybe its a bit early to say but this large sunspot group which rotate into view on the north east limb is a single spot group


:flareoct9:
This image shows you the bright spot on the left where a B6 solar flare took place this morning
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Thanks for the updates IWTB. hi

It looks like things won't stay hum drum for too long.
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
tomasgod1

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10/09/2011 02:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sun is scary quite!!!
 Quoting: XP...


Good morning. Peace and safety to all.
 Quoting: Shenue


good morning

peace today rockon
 Quoting: aether


Hi everyone,

What is this? Can someone tell me? PLEASE!

I've watched this satellites but never saw anything of the likes before.

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Hopefully it's just some reflection or malfunction of some sort...


uhoh
 Quoting: Isis7


GoodMorning all,


some sunspotUpdate:

Region 1305 rotated out of view yesterday and is due back to return into view around the 23rd

Region 1306 decayed and disappeared

There are now five groups visible, all are decaying or stable the largest group is region 1312

this is a large single spot type group at 200 millionths.

A new group started to rotate into view yesterday, one large spot is currently visible but there is a good chance that other spots are associated with this group and will become visible today


:newsunspotoct9:
Image shows a close up view of the new region at the north-east limb




OverviewSunspots:
[link to www.solen.info]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Looks like a Beast! We'll see
 Quoting: Weapon X Jacobs


Hi Tom

Thanks for the updates. Busy weekend for me.

Hi IWTB. Nice to here you.

Strange videos on iss thread yesterday will look it up.

cool2
 Quoting: finley


Hi Guys!

wave
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Anonymous Coward
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10/09/2011 03:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
its quiet for now enjoy the silence...
Anonymous Coward
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Germany
10/09/2011 05:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
so have to work a bit; offline till next sunday...

will miss ya all, stay safe familygrouphug


little gift for you allhf


Aurora Borealis ~ Northern Lights Live now!

[link to www.earthcam.com]

cam located north of reykjavik



or
Thread: Aurora Borealis ~ Northern Lights Live now!











for those who passed it...:

Aurora Borealis ~ Northern Lights ~ October 8th/9th, 2011 - Porjus, Sweden




[link to www.youtube.com]
tomasgod1

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10/09/2011 05:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ACE just had a shock pass by. It looks like that filament eruption from the 4th, may be about to arrive.
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
tomasgod1

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10/09/2011 05:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
tomasgod1

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10/09/2011 06:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
tomasgod1

User ID: 1494107
United States
10/09/2011 06:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I am glad this just came out now so we can document that NOAA has predicted no geomagnetic storms.


Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2011 Oct 09 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. New Region 1314 (N26E72)
was numbered today and produced a C1 flare at 09/1327Z. Region 1309
(N23W24) decayed slightly and is now considered an Hsx-alpha type
group. All other regions on the disk remained relatively stable and
quiet.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
low for the next three days (10-12 October).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled with an isolated active
period from 09/0300-0600Z due to solar sector boundary changes.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated
active periods on day one (10 October) due to effects from a coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on days two and three (11-12 October) as effects from the
CH HSS subside.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 121
Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 120/120/115
90 Day Mean 09 Oct 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 008/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Anonymous Coward
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10/09/2011 08:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Tom....
Thank you for the info!
Hugh M Eye

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10/09/2011 11:39 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
New sunspot mentioned by IWTB has been designated #1314-and it looks like a doozy.

[link to sidc.oma.be]
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

1309, 1312, and possibly 1314 seem to be magnetically connected (all Alpha). Check out the loops on the NE limb.
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Jhoevz

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10/10/2011 02:53 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just recent..

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] hf

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by Jhoevz on 10/10/2011 03:09 AM
Anonymous Coward
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10/10/2011 03:15 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)


how big you think that is and earth directed?

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