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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
OpenEnded

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03/16/2011 06:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
thanks! best regards
 Quoting: Dirt Diver


SmileyWink

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2011 Mar 16 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:

Solar activity was at low levels. During the period, Region 1169 (N17W75) produced a few low-level C-class events including a long-duration (LDE) C3/Sf flare at 16/2034Z. The flare was still in progress at the time of this writing. Associated with this LDE was a partial-halo CME, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 16/1912Z. A preliminary plane-of-sky estimate indicated a
velocity near 500 km/s.
The region maintained its beta-gamma
magnetic classification as it approached the west limb. New Region 1173 (S28E39) emerged on the disk as a bi-polar C-type group. The Penticton 10.7 cm flux and the 90-day mean are estimated for today (16 March) due to flare enhanced readings.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class event from Region 1169 for the next two days (17 - 18 March). On day three (19 March), activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Observations from the ACE satellite indicated solar wind velocities averaged about 370 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly north at +1 to +5 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (17 - 19 March).

III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M 25/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

Last Edited by OpenEnded on 03/16/2011 06:27 PM
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Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2011 06:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Iridium Satellite Communications Temporarily Down

[link to blog.buoyalarm.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1299948


bump
 Quoting: skirmisher


?
OpenEnded

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Iridium Satellite Communications Temporarily Down

[link to blog.buoyalarm.com]
?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1136718


sats go down sometimes, they normally come back up soon thereafter..
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/16/2011 07:00 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
this flare started off very odd, in a slow rising
it did not suddenly peak, then drop, like we see most do
This event went on for just over 3hrs before reaching it's max and is still in the process of slowly dropping at the time of this post
xfluxweird
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


You can see here what all the other flares usually look like with their spikes and drops
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


there looks to be a very heavy, dense CME lift off
stereoflare1
sohoflare2
sohoflare3
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]


here are the STEREO HI1 and HI2 photos of the event
hi111
hi222
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]


The flare came from sunspot 1169 that is still earth directed, but to the far western edge.
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]


this is not directly earth facing, but looking at both STEREO A & B, at lease some of the CME will be headed at earth
(images have not updated in the last few hours. How convenient)
STEREO B
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO A
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

position of STEREO A & B
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]


although the event has reached it's max, it is dropping in the same manor as it rose.. very slow
besides this being so dense, the thing that catches my eye most with this is the odd energy patterns in the flare.

With comet Elenin said to be lined up with the sun and earth last night, i was watching for any odd sun behavior within a 24hr time frame before and after the projected alignment. I did not think i was going to see anything, until this happened.
I'm not positive of the effects this event would have on earth aside from the usual, although i am personally watching for another large quake

Anyone have any ideas on that? I'm open to any and all ideas.

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/16/2011 07:08 PM
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
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OpenEnded

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03/16/2011 07:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
damn i wish AZ was here with his usual shpeel about how he's seen this sort of thing before, with links. It was a partial halo CME and it sure looks big on the pics. there was also a strange black box on one of the pics from nasa recently posted above. something seems to be fishy, imo..

on the other hand, it was/is just a c flare with a cme and the Msphere should be in good shape to handle any glancing blow.

If Elenin had something to do with this then we have a whole new ballgame.

I'm currently on heavy eq watch too, but not because of this flare..

Last Edited by OpenEnded on 03/16/2011 07:18 PM
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HarmonyH

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What does this all mean Basil??!?!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 910386


I can say for a fact, it means the earth has just took on more X-rays than a X Class Flare event.

I can theorize that because this 'type' of event was documented prior to the New Zealand/Japan/Mt. Fuji EQs, that there is a STRONG probability for and EQ of equal size to occur on the Pacific Rim.

hf
 Quoting: The 6th Sun


I'd give it any where from the next 12 hours until 3-4 days depending on CME activity and the magnetosphere.

Any verdict from a pro?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1129515


I would say that the Chile EQ is related.

Of the flare classification a LDE is is very rare. It is opposite of a impulsive flare. The impulsive flare delivers its' x-ray in one pulse, whereas the LDE delivers it over at least 1 hour >

[link to books.google.com]

We are in our fourth hour ...

hf
 Quoting: The 6th Sun


what do you guys think of what is being Talked/written
on the other thread that is Pinned.

The lingering part of the the flare is my concern
aether

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03/16/2011 07:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the birkeland currents pulsed energy flow changing fits

same energy transmitted but over a longer period (longer pulse) of time causing our sun to radiate in sync to the longer/dense pulsed energy with net result for earth being, the received radiated energy upon reaching the point where input exceeds consumption , because of`the slower transmission, avoids excessive and abrupt discharge of a scale we experienced last week
HarmonyH

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the birkeland currents pulsed energy flow changing fits

same energy transmitted but over a longer period (longer pulse) of time causing our sun to radiate in sync to the longer/dense pulsed energy with net result for earth being, the received radiated energy upon reaching the point where input exceeds consumption , because of`the slower transmission, avoids excessive and abrupt discharge of a scale we experienced last week
 Quoting: aether


Thank you --- for the INFO

got it
OpenEnded

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
what do you guys think of what is being Talked/written
on the other thread that is Pinned.

The lingering part of the the flare is my concern
 Quoting: HarmonyH


I post there too sometimes, it's a little like Q's thread of late. we had c level xrays for longer times just recently but any harmonics/pulsations and such is out of my scope..

did u see the black box on the pic? any comments?

Last Edited by OpenEnded on 03/16/2011 07:51 PM
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NiNzrez (OP)

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03/16/2011 07:52 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
damn i wish AZ was here with his usual shpeel about how he's seen this sort of thing before, with links. It was a partial halo CME and it sure looks big on the pics. there was also a strange black box on one of the pics from nasa recently posted above. something seems to be fishy, imo..

on the other hand, it was/is just a c flare with a cme and the Msphere should be in good shape to handle any glancing blow.

If Elenin had something to do with this then we have a whole new ballgame.

I'm currently on heavy eq watch too, but not because of this flare..
 Quoting: OpenEnded


idk but i do wish AZ and TOM would show to give their input on this one thats for sure

It's like this
i can not find the chart right now that shows the equations, but a long C can be be equal to a large fast X
one big fast X event hits us with Xrays in (x amount)
and one long long long C event hits us with the same amount of x rays over a short 3-4hrs period of time
the amount of xrays are still equal
Solar Alerts Blog
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
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OpenEnded

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03/16/2011 08:06 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
sc24 now says the news too..

Solar Update / New Sunspot 1173 - A long duration C-Class flare took place around Sunspot 1169 which is located towards the northwest limb. A partial halo CME was associated with this event according to the latest SWPC update. There will continue to be a chance for C-Class flares and perhaps another M-Class flare as it continues to rotate onto the limb and out of direct earth view.
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NiNzrez (OP)

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Four-hour events are more easily detected in X-ray data than in 10.7 cm data at solar minimum, but, conversely, these events are much more easily detected in 10.7 cm data around solar maximum. About 70% of the most energetic CMEs are associated with 4 hr X-ray or 10.7 cm bursts
[link to www.springerlink.com]


LONG-DURATION SOLAR GAMMA-RAY FLARES (PDF)
Long-duration solar y-ray flares are those in which high-energy photon emission is present well beyond the impulsive phase, indicating the presence of either stored or continuously accelerated ions.
The concept of a long duration y-ray flare (LDGRF) is a relatively new one despite the fact that the phenomenon has been observed and measured many times over the last twenty years. The imprecise definition that has developed (and will be used here) is that of a solar flare exhibiting
y-ray (and/or neutron) emission (>1 MeV) for time periods of a fraction of an hour to hours after the impulsive phase while other common flare emissions (e.g., X-rays) are absent or greatly diminished. The

y-ray emission can stand out above the background level while other emissions at longer wavelengths have since returned to normal intensities. The critical element of this definition is that emission in other wavelengths is reduced relative to the high-energy emission. This is noteworthy because if y-ray and neutron emissions
persist for hours it can represent one of the longest duration signatures of a solar flare. Although soft X-ray and radio emissions can last hours, they now compete with
y-ray emission in certain cases. The intuitive notion that energy degrades in form over time seems not to hold in these circumstances.
[link to astronomy.ege.edu.tr]


Long Duration Solar Flare With Mass Ejection And Global Consequences
[link to adsabs.harvard.edu]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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NiNzrez (OP)

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03/16/2011 08:14 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the birkeland currents pulsed energy flow changing fits

same energy transmitted but over a longer period (longer pulse) of time causing our sun to radiate in sync to the longer/dense pulsed energy with net result for earth being, the received radiated energy upon reaching the point where input exceeds consumption , because of`the slower transmission, avoids excessive and abrupt discharge of a scale we experienced last week
 Quoting: aether


thank you aether
it would seem as though things are progressing as we suspected
rockon
Solar Alerts Blog
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
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OpenEnded

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
do you have a source for y-ray data on this one? it seems these lde flares/CMEs are a sort of normal part of a solar cycle. every day i learn something here..
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
aether

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03/16/2011 08:21 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
damn i wish AZ was here with his usual shpeel about how he's seen this sort of thing before, with links. It was a partial halo CME and it sure looks big on the pics. there was also a strange black box on one of the pics from nasa recently posted above. something seems to be fishy, imo..

on the other hand, it was/is just a c flare with a cme and the Msphere should be in good shape to handle any glancing blow.

If Elenin had something to do with this then we have a whole new ballgame.

I'm currently on heavy eq watch too, but not because of this flare..
 Quoting: OpenEnded


idk but i do wish AZ and TOM would show to give their input on this one thats for sure

It's like this
i can not find the chart right now that shows the equations, but a long C can be be equal to a large fast X
one big fast X event hits us with Xrays in (x amount)
and one long long long C event hits us with the same amount of x rays over a short 3-4hrs period of time
the amount of xrays are still equal
 Quoting: NiNzrez


nin put this to your intuition rockon

energy = information

adding the volume of energy (x rays) is like counting how many letters in a sentence, it doesn`t tell you what the sentence said

the change in signal (way it transmits) is a change in information (effects)

does that form a picture
aether

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the birkeland currents pulsed energy flow changing fits

same energy transmitted but over a longer period (longer pulse) of time causing our sun to radiate in sync to the longer/dense pulsed energy with net result for earth being, the received radiated energy upon reaching the point where input exceeds consumption , because of`the slower transmission, avoids excessive and abrupt discharge of a scale we experienced last week
 Quoting: aether


thank you aether
it would seem as though things are progressing as we suspected
rockon
 Quoting: NiNzrez


yes, music of the spheres rockon
NiNzrez (OP)

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
what do you guys think of what is being Talked/written
on the other thread that is Pinned.

The lingering part of the the flare is my concern
 Quoting: HarmonyH


I post there too sometimes, it's a little like Q's thread of late. we had c level xrays for longer times just recently but any harmonics/pulsations and such is out of my scope..

did u see the black box on the pic? any comments?
 Quoting: OpenEnded


not sure on the black box but i have seen them so that before
I'm sure they censored something :/

as for the quake prediction from flare...
that is still a science that exists in theory only
There are so many things to take into account and some of them are still to be discovered
No one has found a definitive correlation between solar flares and earthquake activity
Though most of us know there is a connection, it seems that for now anyways, it is beyond our comprehension.
Solar Alerts Blog
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OpenEnded

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
as for the quake prediction from flare...
that is still a science that exists in theory only
There are so many things to take into account and some of them are still to be discovered
No one has found a definitive correlation between solar flares and earthquake activity
Though most of us know there is a connection, it seems that for now anyways, it is beyond our comprehension.
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I agree..
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
HarmonyH

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03/16/2011 08:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
nin put this to your intuition rockon

energy = information

adding the volume of energy (x rays) is like counting how many letters in a sentence, it doesn`t tell you what the sentence said

the change in signal (way it transmits) is a change in information (effects)

does that form a picture
 Quoting: aether


more insights ---coming in at the speed of light

THANKS aether
NiNzrez (OP)

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
do you have a source for y-ray data on this one? it seems these lde flares/CMEs are a sort of normal part of a solar cycle. every day i learn something here..
 Quoting: OpenEnded


y-ray is Gamma Ray
[link to en.wikipedia.org]

The X rays result from the interactions of the high energy electrons energized during the flare, and the gamma rays result primarily from nuclear interactions of the high energy protons and other heavier ions.
[link to hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov]
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NiNzrez (OP)

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the birkeland currents pulsed energy flow changing fits

same energy transmitted but over a longer period (longer pulse) of time causing our sun to radiate in sync to the longer/dense pulsed energy with net result for earth being, the received radiated energy upon reaching the point where input exceeds consumption , because of`the slower transmission, avoids excessive and abrupt discharge of a scale we experienced last week
 Quoting: aether


thank you aether
it would seem as though things are progressing as we suspected
rockon
 Quoting: NiNzrez


yes, music of the spheres rockon
 Quoting: aether

indeed hf

btw.. that always was my favorite Outer Limits episode hehe
rockon
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OpenEnded

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we've been linked from the pinned thread. here they come..
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2011 09:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
its radiation, its radiating off particle dust left over from the de magnification event .
thats why its coming this direction after the cme....
im guessing the blast contained gases from deep within the core....
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/16/2011 09:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we've been linked from the pinned thread. here they come..
 Quoting: OpenEnded


hiding

hehehe
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Southern OR

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03/16/2011 09:25 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
do you have a source for y-ray data on this one? it seems these lde flares/CMEs are a sort of normal part of a solar cycle. every day i learn something here..
 Quoting: OpenEnded


y-ray is Gamma Ray
[link to en.wikipedia.org]

The X rays result from the interactions of the high energy electrons energized during the flare, and the gamma rays result primarily from nuclear interactions of the high energy protons and other heavier ions.
[link to hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez

Wow! You have learned a lot! Here's to girl power!!!
hf rockon
"Well-behaved women seldom make history." —Laurel Thatcher Ulrich

I am only one, but I am one. I cannot do everything, but I can do something. And I will not let what I cannot do interfere with what I can do. ~Edward Everett Hale
life speaking
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03/16/2011 09:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
basically, you just had nuclear event on the sun...
perigee moon is causing this...
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/16/2011 09:38 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
STEREO B is now updating... about time
lots of missed data and time
so here we are only catching the end of the flare
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
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OpenEnded

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03/16/2011 09:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
finally. it seems to have gone N and E of us mostly, even a glancing blow is pushin it i think..
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/16/2011 09:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
See that little dot in the middle?
That is Earth
See the lines headed at earth?
That is what the flare blew our way
some very high energy
hi111
hi222


Here are the links to the larger images if anyone would like to get a better look at this
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

i will try to go through data to see what kind of spikes or drops we had during this time frame

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/16/2011 09:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
many people will say its not a proven science...
no science is proven till it ends and starts again.
evolution...
the russians have defined the science.....
i'll try again, an x flare erupted on the sun 3 days prior to the japan 9.0 eq.
the overlay at atmospheric penetration of the solar wind or burst was almost perfectly over japan. that x flare happened before 5 am i think..... you can do a time progression here,, some simple calculations and you can land the next blast within 200 miles using simple trig calcs. dont get caught up i nall that travels at differnt rates stuff, those are miniscule in the overall calculation...
sometimes people are just too smart,,,
bitchin eyes is too smart...
break it back down to basics....
use a natural progression with limited variables...
it can be done, it took me 8 minutes...
brazil..............................will take the next hit..
rio de janeiro............
pin me bitches...................

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