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| 07:27 PM | ||
| Users Online Now: 2,947 (Who's On?) | Visitors Today: 1,284,696 | |
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| 07:27 PM | ||
SOLAR WATCH * 248 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily) | |
OpenEnded User ID: 1289289  United States03/16/2011 06:20 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | thanks! best regards Quoting: Dirt Diver Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2011 Mar 16 2200 UTC Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. During the period, Region 1169 (N17W75) produced a few low-level C-class events including a long-duration (LDE) C3/Sf flare at 16/2034Z. The flare was still in progress at the time of this writing. Associated with this LDE was a partial-halo CME, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 16/1912Z. A preliminary plane-of-sky estimate indicated a velocity near 500 km/s. The region maintained its beta-gamma magnetic classification as it approached the west limb. New Region 1173 (S28E39) emerged on the disk as a bi-polar C-type group. The Penticton 10.7 cm flux and the 90-day mean are estimated for today (16 March) due to flare enhanced readings. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class event from Region 1169 for the next two days (17 - 18 March). On day three (19 March), activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Observations from the ACE satellite indicated solar wind velocities averaged about 370 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly north at +1 to +5 nT. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (17 - 19 March). III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar Class M 25/05/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green Last Edited by OpenEnded on 03/16/2011 06:27 PM There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 1136718 United States03/16/2011 06:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1299948  ? |
| OpenEnded User ID: 1289289 United States03/16/2011 06:31 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1136718 sats go down sometimes, they normally come back up soon thereafter.. There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road |
| NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 1135433 United States03/16/2011 07:00 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | this flare started off very odd, in a slow rising it did not suddenly peak, then drop, like we see most do This event went on for just over 3hrs before reaching it's max and is still in the process of slowly dropping at the time of this post  [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] You can see here what all the other flares usually look like with their spikes and drops [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] there looks to be a very heavy, dense CME lift off    [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] here are the STEREO HI1 and HI2 photos of the event   [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] The flare came from sunspot 1169 that is still earth directed, but to the far western edge. [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] this is not directly earth facing, but looking at both STEREO A & B, at lease some of the CME will be headed at earth (images have not updated in the last few hours. How convenient) STEREO B [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] STEREO A [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] position of STEREO A & B [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] although the event has reached it's max, it is dropping in the same manor as it rose.. very slow besides this being so dense, the thing that catches my eye most with this is the odd energy patterns in the flare. With comet Elenin said to be lined up with the sun and earth last night, i was watching for any odd sun behavior within a 24hr time frame before and after the projected alignment. I did not think i was going to see anything, until this happened. I'm not positive of the effects this event would have on earth aside from the usual, although i am personally watching for another large quake Anyone have any ideas on that? I'm open to any and all ideas. Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/16/2011 07:08 PM Solar Alerts Blog [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 248 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily) Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ*** How long will you simple ones love your simple ways? How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge? |
| OpenEnded User ID: 1289289 United States03/16/2011 07:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | damn i wish AZ was here with his usual shpeel about how he's seen this sort of thing before, with links. It was a partial halo CME and it sure looks big on the pics. there was also a strange black box on one of the pics from nasa recently posted above. something seems to be fishy, imo.. on the other hand, it was/is just a c flare with a cme and the Msphere should be in good shape to handle any glancing blow. If Elenin had something to do with this then we have a whole new ballgame. I'm currently on heavy eq watch too, but not because of this flare.. Last Edited by OpenEnded on 03/16/2011 07:18 PM There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road |
| HarmonyH User ID: 1136718 United States03/16/2011 07:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | What does this all mean Basil??!?! Quoting: Anonymous Coward 910386I can say for a fact, it means the earth has just took on more X-rays than a X Class Flare event. I can theorize that because this 'type' of event was documented prior to the New Zealand/Japan/Mt. Fuji EQs, that there is a STRONG probability for and EQ of equal size to occur on the Pacific Rim.  I'd give it any where from the next 12 hours until 3-4 days depending on CME activity and the magnetosphere. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1129515Any verdict from a pro? I would say that the Chile EQ is related. Of the flare classification a LDE is is very rare. It is opposite of a impulsive flare. The impulsive flare delivers its' x-ray in one pulse, whereas the LDE delivers it over at least 1 hour > [link to books.google.com] We are in our fourth hour ... what do you guys think of what is being Talked/written on the other thread that is Pinned. The lingering part of the the flare is my concern |
| aether User ID: 1187276  United Kingdom03/16/2011 07:43 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | the birkeland currents pulsed energy flow changing fits same energy transmitted but over a longer period (longer pulse) of time causing our sun to radiate in sync to the longer/dense pulsed energy with net result for earth being, the received radiated energy upon reaching the point where input exceeds consumption , because of`the slower transmission, avoids excessive and abrupt discharge of a scale we experienced last week |
| HarmonyH User ID: 1136718 United States03/16/2011 07:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | the birkeland currents pulsed energy flow changing fits Quoting: aethersame energy transmitted but over a longer period (longer pulse) of time causing our sun to radiate in sync to the longer/dense pulsed energy with net result for earth being, the received radiated energy upon reaching the point where input exceeds consumption , because of`the slower transmission, avoids excessive and abrupt discharge of a scale we experienced last week Thank you --- for the INFO got it |
| OpenEnded User ID: 1289289 United States03/16/2011 07:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | what do you guys think of what is being Talked/written Quoting: HarmonyHon the other thread that is Pinned. The lingering part of the the flare is my concern I post there too sometimes, it's a little like Q's thread of late. we had c level xrays for longer times just recently but any harmonics/pulsations and such is out of my scope.. did u see the black box on the pic? any comments? Last Edited by OpenEnded on 03/16/2011 07:51 PM There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road |
| NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 1135433 United States03/16/2011 07:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | damn i wish AZ was here with his usual shpeel about how he's seen this sort of thing before, with links. It was a partial halo CME and it sure looks big on the pics. there was also a strange black box on one of the pics from nasa recently posted above. something seems to be fishy, imo.. Quoting: OpenEndedon the other hand, it was/is just a c flare with a cme and the Msphere should be in good shape to handle any glancing blow. If Elenin had something to do with this then we have a whole new ballgame. I'm currently on heavy eq watch too, but not because of this flare.. idk but i do wish AZ and TOM would show to give their input on this one thats for sure It's like this i can not find the chart right now that shows the equations, but a long C can be be equal to a large fast X one big fast X event hits us with Xrays in (x amount) and one long long long C event hits us with the same amount of x rays over a short 3-4hrs period of time the amount of xrays are still equal Solar Alerts Blog [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 248 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily) Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ*** How long will you simple ones love your simple ways? How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge? |
| OpenEnded User ID: 1289289 United States03/16/2011 08:06 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | sc24 now says the news too.. Solar Update / New Sunspot 1173 - A long duration C-Class flare took place around Sunspot 1169 which is located towards the northwest limb. A partial halo CME was associated with this event according to the latest SWPC update. There will continue to be a chance for C-Class flares and perhaps another M-Class flare as it continues to rotate onto the limb and out of direct earth view. There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road |
| NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 1135433 United States03/16/2011 08:09 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Four-hour events are more easily detected in X-ray data than in 10.7 cm data at solar minimum, but, conversely, these events are much more easily detected in 10.7 cm data around solar maximum. About 70% of the most energetic CMEs are associated with 4 hr X-ray or 10.7 cm bursts [link to www.springerlink.com] LONG-DURATION SOLAR GAMMA-RAY FLARES (PDF) Long-duration solar y-ray flares are those in which high-energy photon emission is present well beyond the impulsive phase, indicating the presence of either stored or continuously accelerated ions. The concept of a long duration y-ray flare (LDGRF) is a relatively new one despite the fact that the phenomenon has been observed and measured many times over the last twenty years. The imprecise definition that has developed (and will be used here) is that of a solar flare exhibiting y-ray (and/or neutron) emission (>1 MeV) for time periods of a fraction of an hour to hours after the impulsive phase while other common flare emissions (e.g., X-rays) are absent or greatly diminished. The y-ray emission can stand out above the background level while other emissions at longer wavelengths have since returned to normal intensities. The critical element of this definition is that emission in other wavelengths is reduced relative to the high-energy emission. This is noteworthy because if y-ray and neutron emissions persist for hours it can represent one of the longest duration signatures of a solar flare. Although soft X-ray and radio emissions can last hours, they now compete with y-ray emission in certain cases. The intuitive notion that energy degrades in form over time seems not to hold in these circumstances. [link to astronomy.ege.edu.tr] Long Duration Solar Flare With Mass Ejection And Global Consequences [link to adsabs.harvard.edu] Solar Alerts Blog [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 248 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily) Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ*** How long will you simple ones love your simple ways? How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge? |
| NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 1135433 United States03/16/2011 08:14 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | the birkeland currents pulsed energy flow changing fits Quoting: aethersame energy transmitted but over a longer period (longer pulse) of time causing our sun to radiate in sync to the longer/dense pulsed energy with net result for earth being, the received radiated energy upon reaching the point where input exceeds consumption , because of`the slower transmission, avoids excessive and abrupt discharge of a scale we experienced last week thank you aether it would seem as though things are progressing as we suspected  Solar Alerts Blog [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 248 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily) Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ*** How long will you simple ones love your simple ways? How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge? |
| OpenEnded User ID: 1289289 United States03/16/2011 08:16 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| aether User ID: 1187276 United Kingdom03/16/2011 08:21 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | damn i wish AZ was here with his usual shpeel about how he's seen this sort of thing before, with links. It was a partial halo CME and it sure looks big on the pics. there was also a strange black box on one of the pics from nasa recently posted above. something seems to be fishy, imo.. Quoting: OpenEndedon the other hand, it was/is just a c flare with a cme and the Msphere should be in good shape to handle any glancing blow. If Elenin had something to do with this then we have a whole new ballgame. I'm currently on heavy eq watch too, but not because of this flare.. idk but i do wish AZ and TOM would show to give their input on this one thats for sure It's like this i can not find the chart right now that shows the equations, but a long C can be be equal to a large fast X one big fast X event hits us with Xrays in (x amount) and one long long long C event hits us with the same amount of x rays over a short 3-4hrs period of time the amount of xrays are still equal nin put this to your intuition energy = information adding the volume of energy (x rays) is like counting how many letters in a sentence, it doesn`t tell you what the sentence said the change in signal (way it transmits) is a change in information (effects) does that form a picture |
| aether User ID: 1187276 United Kingdom03/16/2011 08:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | the birkeland currents pulsed energy flow changing fits Quoting: aethersame energy transmitted but over a longer period (longer pulse) of time causing our sun to radiate in sync to the longer/dense pulsed energy with net result for earth being, the received radiated energy upon reaching the point where input exceeds consumption , because of`the slower transmission, avoids excessive and abrupt discharge of a scale we experienced last week thank you aether it would seem as though things are progressing as we suspected yes, music of the spheres |
| NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 1135433 United States03/16/2011 08:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | what do you guys think of what is being Talked/written Quoting: HarmonyHon the other thread that is Pinned. The lingering part of the the flare is my concern I post there too sometimes, it's a little like Q's thread of late. we had c level xrays for longer times just recently but any harmonics/pulsations and such is out of my scope.. did u see the black box on the pic? any comments? not sure on the black box but i have seen them so that before I'm sure they censored something :/ as for the quake prediction from flare... that is still a science that exists in theory only There are so many things to take into account and some of them are still to be discovered No one has found a definitive correlation between solar flares and earthquake activity Though most of us know there is a connection, it seems that for now anyways, it is beyond our comprehension. Solar Alerts Blog [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 248 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily) Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ*** How long will you simple ones love your simple ways? How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge? |
| OpenEnded User ID: 1289289 United States03/16/2011 08:31 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | as for the quake prediction from flare... Quoting: NiNzrezthat is still a science that exists in theory only There are so many things to take into account and some of them are still to be discovered No one has found a definitive correlation between solar flares and earthquake activity Though most of us know there is a connection, it seems that for now anyways, it is beyond our comprehension. I agree.. There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road |
| HarmonyH User ID: 1136718 United States03/16/2011 08:32 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | nin put this to your intuition Quoting: aetherenergy = information adding the volume of energy (x rays) is like counting how many letters in a sentence, it doesn`t tell you what the sentence said the change in signal (way it transmits) is a change in information (effects) does that form a picture more insights ---coming in at the speed of light THANKS aether |
| NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 1135433 United States03/16/2011 09:16 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | do you have a source for y-ray data on this one? it seems these lde flares/CMEs are a sort of normal part of a solar cycle. every day i learn something here.. Quoting: OpenEndedy-ray is Gamma Ray [link to en.wikipedia.org] The X rays result from the interactions of the high energy electrons energized during the flare, and the gamma rays result primarily from nuclear interactions of the high energy protons and other heavier ions. [link to hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov] Solar Alerts Blog [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 248 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily) Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ*** How long will you simple ones love your simple ways? How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge? |
| NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 1135433 United States03/16/2011 09:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | the birkeland currents pulsed energy flow changing fits Quoting: aethersame energy transmitted but over a longer period (longer pulse) of time causing our sun to radiate in sync to the longer/dense pulsed energy with net result for earth being, the received radiated energy upon reaching the point where input exceeds consumption , because of`the slower transmission, avoids excessive and abrupt discharge of a scale we experienced last week thank you aether it would seem as though things are progressing as we suspected yes, music of the spheres indeed btw.. that always was my favorite Outer Limits episode hehe Solar Alerts Blog [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 248 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily) Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ*** How long will you simple ones love your simple ways? How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge? |
| OpenEnded User ID: 1289289 United States03/16/2011 09:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 1253963 United States03/16/2011 09:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 1135433 United States03/16/2011 09:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | we've been linked from the pinned thread. here they come.. Quoting: OpenEnded hehehe Solar Alerts Blog [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 248 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily) Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ*** How long will you simple ones love your simple ways? How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge? |
| Southern OR User ID: 1167877 United States03/16/2011 09:25 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | do you have a source for y-ray data on this one? it seems these lde flares/CMEs are a sort of normal part of a solar cycle. every day i learn something here.. Quoting: OpenEndedy-ray is Gamma Ray [link to en.wikipedia.org] The X rays result from the interactions of the high energy electrons energized during the flare, and the gamma rays result primarily from nuclear interactions of the high energy protons and other heavier ions. [link to hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov] Wow! You have learned a lot! Here's to girl power!!! "Well-behaved women seldom make history." —Laurel Thatcher Ulrich I am only one, but I am one. I cannot do everything, but I can do something. And I will not let what I cannot do interfere with what I can do. ~Edward Everett Hale |
| life speaking User ID: 1253963 United States03/16/2011 09:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 1135433 United States03/16/2011 09:38 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | STEREO B is now updating... about time lots of missed data and time so here we are only catching the end of the flare [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Solar Alerts Blog [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 248 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily) Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ*** How long will you simple ones love your simple ways? How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge? |
| OpenEnded User ID: 1289289 United States03/16/2011 09:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 1135433 United States03/16/2011 09:46 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | See that little dot in the middle? That is Earth See the lines headed at earth? That is what the flare blew our way some very high energy Here are the links to the larger images if anyone would like to get a better look at this [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] i will try to go through data to see what kind of spikes or drops we had during this time frame Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/16/2011 09:46 PM Solar Alerts Blog [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 248 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily) Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ*** How long will you simple ones love your simple ways? How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge? |
| life speaking User ID: 1253963 United States03/16/2011 09:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | many people will say its not a proven science... no science is proven till it ends and starts again. evolution... the russians have defined the science..... i'll try again, an x flare erupted on the sun 3 days prior to the japan 9.0 eq. the overlay at atmospheric penetration of the solar wind or burst was almost perfectly over japan. that x flare happened before 5 am i think..... you can do a time progression here,, some simple calculations and you can land the next blast within 200 miles using simple trig calcs. dont get caught up i nall that travels at differnt rates stuff, those are miniscule in the overall calculation... sometimes people are just too smart,,, bitchin eyes is too smart... break it back down to basics.... use a natural progression with limited variables... it can be done, it took me 8 minutes... brazil..............................will take the next hit.. rio de janeiro............ pin me bitches................... |
