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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
OpenEnded

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03/16/2011 11:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
thats just were the magma slugged... coming back now...
watch ... south america next...
kinda like a magma tsunami...
 Quoting: life speaking 1253963


popcorn
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 1135433
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03/16/2011 11:13 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i think when you use resistance in a factor it has a pulsation range....
give each variable a pulsation range in your data...
cant just apply the known resistance factors like in normal physics.
once you set the range, start reducing the area.....
buy using the atmospheric pressures as an average across the globe, not just in your range in atmosphere....
then progress that up and down to 100 variations each...
i think you follow me know....
reduce as you may from here....
geez, you gotta atleast get the end part,,,

do you think i just fuckin made this up...
how i know this idont know...
i need you to prove it....
thats your mission girls...
you can be farrah fawcett...
i need two more...
brown and black haired now...
 Quoting: life speaking 1253963


i do wish i had time to do all that math haha
sadly things are progressing now.. much faster each day
i research much much more than just solar events
My heart lives with ancient cultures and now is crunch time for putting all the pieces together
solar events are just part of this puzzle, so i have stayed very busy
interesting days we live in
we are the civilization future humans will speak about and the times we live in today will be analyzed for centuries
banana2
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
OpenEnded

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03/16/2011 11:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the egyptians were cool..

violin

Last Edited by OpenEnded on 03/16/2011 11:18 PM
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
HarmonyH

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03/16/2011 11:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i do wish i had time to do all that math haha
sadly things are progressing now.. much faster each day
i research much much more than just solar events
My heart lives with ancient cultures and now is crunch time for putting all the pieces together
solar events are just part of this puzzle, so i have stayed very busy
interesting days we live in
we are the civilization future humans will speak about and the times we live in today will be analyzed for centuries
banana2
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Very eloquently put.

I've learned Or shall I say re-member a lot
from you guys lately. I thank you. Please continue
it is appreciated. There are many silent but anxious
lurking eyes reading all your insights... Keep them
focus on real data and news so they can find their place.
life speaking
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03/16/2011 11:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
well leave a note with all the dildos....
so they dont think they are bombs wehn they start diggin around....
hahahaha....
sorry...
my apoligies in advance..
kinda




later folks,,,
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 1135433
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03/16/2011 11:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
thats just were the magma slugged... coming back now...
watch ... south america next...
kinda like a magma tsunami...
 Quoting: life speaking 1253963


popcorn
 Quoting: OpenEnded


i call a bit more north than that ;)
popcorn
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
OpenEnded

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03/16/2011 11:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Australia? didn't see that coming but it is on the rof..

Last Edited by OpenEnded on 03/16/2011 11:31 PM
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/16/2011 11:31 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i do wish i had time to do all that math haha
sadly things are progressing now.. much faster each day
i research much much more than just solar events
My heart lives with ancient cultures and now is crunch time for putting all the pieces together
solar events are just part of this puzzle, so i have stayed very busy
interesting days we live in
we are the civilization future humans will speak about and the times we live in today will be analyzed for centuries
banana2
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Very eloquently put.

I've learned Or shall I say re-member a lot
from you guys lately. I thank you. Please continue
it is appreciated. There are many silent but anxious
lurking eyes reading all your insights... Keep them
focus on real data and news so they can find their place.
 Quoting: HarmonyH


hf

we are all here to learn together
i have heard from a few that are silent lurkers and i always keep them in mind when making posts :)
hi
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/16/2011 11:33 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
well leave a note with all the dildos....
so they dont think they are bombs wehn they start diggin around....
hahahaha....
sorry...
my apoligies in advance..
kinda




later folks,,,
 Quoting: life speaking 1253963


laugh
Solar Alerts Blog
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Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
life speaking
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03/16/2011 11:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
sorry i forget its not just adults..
my apologies..
i will conform,,,,
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/16/2011 11:37 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
sorry i forget its not just adults..
my apologies..
i will conform,,,,
 Quoting: life speaking 1253963


naw all good
that was funny
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/16/2011 11:38 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Australia? didn't see that coming but it is on the rof..
 Quoting: OpenEnded


that whole area has about 1 decent size quake a week thous
so not holding that quake as anything out of the ordinary just yet
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
OpenEnded

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03/16/2011 11:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
sorry i forget its not just adults..
my apologies..
i will conform,,,,
 Quoting: life speaking 1253963


naw all good
that was funny
 Quoting: NiNzrez


yes, please continue.. conform not alwayz gud..

pennywise

Last Edited by OpenEnded on 03/16/2011 11:41 PM
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/16/2011 11:50 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
false alarm haha

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/16/2011 11:51 PM
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
HarmonyH

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03/16/2011 11:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
sorry i forget its not just adults..
my apologies..
i will conform,,,,
 Quoting: life speaking 1253963


naw all good
that was funny
 Quoting: NiNzrez


yes, please continue.. conform not alwayz gud..

pennywise
 Quoting: OpenEnded


i don't believe many of us on this thread are
conformers ....we wouldn't be here typing away and
digging for truth would we..
OpenEnded

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03/16/2011 11:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
false alarm checked..

Last Edited by OpenEnded on 03/16/2011 11:55 PM
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
OpenEnded

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03/16/2011 11:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i don't believe many of us on this thread are
conformers ....we wouldn't be here typing away and
digging for truth would we..
 Quoting: HarmonyH


nonconformists are cool,,,

pigchef
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
HarmonyH

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03/17/2011 12:25 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
from Thread: 3/19 - Long Duration Event [LDE] STATUS: EQ MONITOR - Last Day (Page 13)
Still watching how long this will last...
can't sleep for some reason because of it !

9.25 hours ?

first I speculated 9.36 maybe it's more like 9.63

or will it keep going to 11 or 12 hours...

Just thinking out-loud here ....
 Quoting: HarmonyH
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/17/2011 12:28 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i don't believe many of us on this thread are
conformers ....we wouldn't be here typing away and
digging for truth would we..
 Quoting: HarmonyH


nonconformists are cool,,,

pigchef
 Quoting: OpenEnded


rockon
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
OpenEnded

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03/17/2011 12:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the best jokes are on the pinned thread now..

angryface
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
HarmonyH

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03/17/2011 12:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the best jokes are on the pinned thread now..

angryface
 Quoting: OpenEnded


yeah but this thread is still the favorite --

He is monitoring things and keeping up the info
you guys all rock rockon
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/17/2011 12:44 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
from Thread: 3/19 - Long Duration Event [LDE] STATUS: EQ MONITOR - Last Day (Page 13)
Still watching how long this will last...
can't sleep for some reason because of it !

9.25 hours ?

first I speculated 9.36 maybe it's more like 9.63

or will it keep going to 11 or 12 hours...

Just thinking out-loud here ....
 Quoting: HarmonyH

 Quoting: HarmonyH


yeah but it went into the B xray range around 03:00-03:30 range and B's don't really do much
so we would have to stop count at, lets round down to 03:00
started at 18:00 UTC on 3/16/11
ended at 03:00 UTC on 3/17/11
= 9hr event

we know plasma was still being discharged from the sun up until around 02:24 UTC today
that makes 9hrs of cme coming our way within around 3 days. it's slow moving so might be a day longer
i will check plots tomorrow and get an estimated time

here were the latest images of the burst
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

oh and...
get your sleep
in a few days you will need it hf

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/17/2011 12:47 AM
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
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NiNzrez (OP)

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03/17/2011 12:56 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
keep an eye on the proton flux
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
HarmonyH

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03/17/2011 12:58 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
from Thread: 3/19 - Long Duration Event [LDE] STATUS: EQ MONITOR - Last Day (Page 13)
Still watching how long this will last...
can't sleep for some reason because of it !

9.25 hours ?

first I speculated 9.36 maybe it's more like 9.63

or will it keep going to 11 or 12 hours...

Just thinking out-loud here ....
 Quoting: HarmonyH

 Quoting: HarmonyH


yeah but it went into the B xray range around 03:00-03:30 range and B's don't really do much
so we would have to stop count at, lets round down to 03:00
started at 18:00 UTC on 3/16/11
ended at 03:00 UTC on 3/17/11
= 9hr event

we know plasma was still being discharged from the sun up until around 02:24 UTC today
that makes 9hrs of cme coming our way within around 3 days. it's slow moving so might be a day longer
i will check plots tomorrow and get an estimated time

here were the latest images of the burst
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

oh and...
get your sleep
in a few days you will need it hf
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thank you thank you thank you for that info
yes I will go to sleep now.

so my original guess-estimate of the duration of
9 hours might have been correct.

I'll explain tomorrow if I can... it's been years
that I have had a thing for 318. I use to go by 318now
instead of Harmonyh a few years back (3 or more years back I believe) anyhow this date just keeps clicking in my ear
for the last 9 months so the 9 hour estimate is something
I am trying to correlate....
Because we should have another one maybe in April or September with a long duration and one big one with a short duration --- mano a mano (hand in hand together)

Good night all ---and thank you
Pilot_007

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03/17/2011 01:02 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
3 days from yesterday SATURDAY the 19th comes up again!
Home protection-
Use of deadly force; presumption of fear of death or great bodily harm
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/17/2011 01:33 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
3 days from yesterday SATURDAY the 19th comes up again!
 Quoting: Pilot_007


where else is it please?
besides the super moon

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/17/2011 01:40 AM
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
OpenEnded

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03/17/2011 01:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
just stolen from another thread, no idea of reliability..

Looking at the latest ENLIL Forecast, that last Long, Slow C3 flare/CME was a total miss. Unless you are on Venus or Stereo A. From here;
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
The density shows nothing until well after the SuperMoon;
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
Also, the Solar Wind shows nothing until after the SuperMoon;
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

So, the SuperMoon will be on it's own come the 19th. The Sunspot that produced the C3 will be out of view, nothing else looks threatening, the CME was a miss, and the Flare Predictor is the lowest in recent memory;
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

I predict NO D00M until at least after the 21st....for now.

Last Edited by OpenEnded on 03/17/2011 01:36 AM
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
The 6th Sun

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03/17/2011 01:42 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Since March 7th 2011 we have had:
18 M flares
1 X Flare
(scroll down on link for list of current flares)
[link to www.lmsal.com]

7 M Flares on 3/7/2011
5 M Flares on 3/8/2011
2 M Flares on 3/9/2011
1 X Flare on 3/9/2011
1 M Flare on 3/10/2011
1 M Flare on 3/11/2011
1 M Flare on 3/12/2011
1 M Flare on 3/14/2011
1 M Flare on 3/15/2011

Watch with us here:
1 minute X ray flux
[link to www.lmsal.com]
5 minute X ray flux
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Possibilities for an M or X flare today:
Class M - 40%
Class X - 05%

Geomagnetic Field:
[link to www.n3kl.org]

KP Index:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Real Time Magnetosphere Simulation:
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Guide For Understanding The Magnetosphere Simulation:
Thread: NICT Magnetosphere Guide For Solar Watchers (service eneded)

Aurora Watch:
[link to www.gooddx.net]
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]



-----------------------------------------------------------

UPDATES:

* X1.5 Flare took place on region 1166 on 3/9/2011
Here is the thread that shows photos and details of this X Flare
Thread: X FLARE! JUST NOW!
It produced a possible CME, but there is no confirmation on this as of now (17:05 UTC 3/10/11)

Geophysical Activity Forecast:
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active levels for day one (14 March). Days two and three (15-16 March) are expected to be predominately quiet as the effects from the coronal hole high speed stream subside.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

3 Day Forecast
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

----------------------------------------------------------

NOAA Space Weather Now:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA Space Weather Alerts:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA 3 Day Forecast:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

A Few Good Sites To Follow Solar Events:
[link to solarcycle24.com]
[link to solarimg.org]
[link to spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez

Really good stuff here!
There has to be a correlation to these events ...
Let's keep looking and hoping we are not in for another 'big' one.
The LDE lasted 10.5 hrs. I am sure we will be able to extract some data.

Good job NiNzrez on your info!
Good stuff.

hf
"God sleeps in the rocks, stirs in the plants, dreams in the animals,
and finally awakens in man." -Famous Vedic Quote-
[link to youtu.be]
nestack

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03/17/2011 01:57 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i do wish i had time to do all that math haha
sadly things are progressing now.. much faster each day
i research much much more than just solar events
My heart lives with ancient cultures and now is crunch time for putting all the pieces together
solar events are just part of this puzzle, so i have stayed very busy
interesting days we live in
we are the civilization future humans will speak about and the times we live in today will be analyzed for centuries
banana2
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Very eloquently put.

I've learned Or shall I say re-member a lot
from you guys lately. I thank you. Please continue
it is appreciated. There are many silent but anxious
lurking eyes reading all your insights... Keep them
focus on real data and news so they can find their place.
 Quoting: HarmonyH


hf

we are all here to learn together
i have heard from a few that are silent lurkers and i always keep them in mind when making posts :)
hi
 Quoting: NiNzrez


silent lurker here and tryin to absorb it all hf
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/17/2011 02:09 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
just stolen from another thread, no idea of reliability..

Looking at the latest ENLIL Forecast, that last Long, Slow C3 flare/CME was a total miss. Unless you are on Venus or Stereo A. From here;
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
The density shows nothing until well after the SuperMoon;
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
Also, the Solar Wind shows nothing until after the SuperMoon;
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

So, the SuperMoon will be on it's own come the 19th. The Sunspot that produced the C3 will be out of view, nothing else looks threatening, the CME was a miss, and the Flare Predictor is the lowest in recent memory;
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

I predict NO D00M until at least after the 21st....for now.
 Quoting: OpenEnded


i saw that and... well i disagree
its not a head on hit, but not a miss

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/17/2011 02:15 AM
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?

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