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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
SwampRatLost

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11/18/2011 07:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Are we getting anything right now? TV and Cell reception is spotty.

I know you guys probably get sick of me asking but I'm trying to figure out what exactly has to increase, to cause these issues.

Thanks for all y'all do!
hf
 Quoting: SwampRatLost


Only a severe geo-magnetic storm would affect communication satellites and nothing is happening at the moment. I think your interference is coming from somewhere within a block or two of your residence. Are you in a house or apartment bldg.? Is there a police or fire station nearby? Is your neighbor a HAM radio operator? Is there a air traffic tower near you? A doppler radar? Something as simple as a florescent lamp or a dimmer switch can cause reception problems. Why would you automatically suspect space weather? Search the web for "RF interference or VHF interference" and I'm sure you'll find the source of the problem.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


None of that around here, I live in the sticks, that's the reason for the Antanae.

As for the reason of suspecting space weather, there has NEVER been a time that we get hit with an impact from a CME, that my reception is not affected.

My signal is very strong, the only time it seems that I have issues is in strong storms/winds and CMEs.

Yet, every so often, I will have issues for no apparent reason? Just trying to figure out why. Whether space weather, HAARP activity, or just a fluke?
"And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather EXPOSE them" - Eph. 5:11
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 5614954
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11/18/2011 07:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is this the reason for all of the data gaps at NASA?

NASA's Deep Space Network At Risk! A "vital asset" for communicating with spacecraft is at risk according to GAO report (2006) investigating the DSN. Established in 1959, it's almost old enough to collect Social Security, LOL. The DSN is comprised of 16 antennae at 3 sites around the globe: Goldstone, CA; Madrid, Spain; and Canberra, Australia. The report states that "serious questions exist as to whether it will be able to keep up with both near-term and future demands". More from 2006 article in New Scientist:

[link to www.newscientist.com]
Hugh M Eye

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11/18/2011 07:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Are we getting anything right now? TV and Cell reception is spotty.

I know you guys probably get sick of me asking but I'm trying to figure out what exactly has to increase, to cause these issues.

Thanks for all y'all do!
hf
 Quoting: SwampRatLost


Only a severe geo-magnetic storm would affect communication satellites and nothing is happening at the moment. I think your interference is coming from somewhere within a block or two of your residence. Are you in a house or apartment bldg.? Is there a police or fire station nearby? Is your neighbor a HAM radio operator? Is there a air traffic tower near you? A doppler radar? Something as simple as a florescent lamp or a dimmer switch can cause reception problems. Why would you automatically suspect space weather? Search the web for "RF interference or VHF interference" and I'm sure you'll find the source of the problem.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


None of that around here, I live in the sticks, that's the reason for the Antanae.

As for the reason of suspecting space weather, there has NEVER been a time that we get hit with an impact from a CME, that my reception is not affected.

My signal is very strong, the only time it seems that I have issues is in strong storms/winds and CMEs.

Yet, every so often, I will have issues for no apparent reason? Just trying to figure out why. Whether space weather, HAARP activity, or just a fluke?
 Quoting: SwampRatLost

Wow, SwampRL, that's very interesting. Usually any geo-magnetic anomalies occur near the polar regions. Only very rare magnetic storms affect anything that far south or in the tropics. There's been a lot of CMEs lately but few or none have been Earth-facing and there's been no major x-ray events facing us lately. There is a lot of secret military stuff being experimented with and/or deployed using microwave radiation, ELF waves, etc. Redstone Arsenal, Pensacola AFB or others may be part of the HAARP-type network. There's also orbiting Synthetic Aperture Radar which penetrates to 15 ft. under ground. I'm not a radio expert, but I'm sure the specifications of your antenna set-up would show what frequency ranges could be a source of interference. Wish I could be of more help. Let us know what you find out.
burnitcheers
Hugh M Eye

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11/18/2011 10:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
RE: KILLER SOLAR FLARES

NASA DEBUNKS NASA!

In a widely published and discussed press release last week entitled "2012: Killer Solar Flares Are A Physical Impossibility", NASA Goddard spokeswoman Karen C. Fox stated "Even at their worst, the sun's flares are not physically capable of destroying Earth". She may have been technically correct as a cooked, lifeless Earth may not qualify as "destroyed". It depends how you define destroyed. If you haven't seen it yet, the NASA 2012 press release here:
[link to www.nasa.gov]

Now I'm not foreseeing any cataclysmic, extinction-level event flares from the sun any time soon, but I believe they ARE a physical possibility. In Dec. 2005, NASA's Swift satellite detected a "Monster Stellar Flare" 135 light years away. Not an explosion, not a supernova, but a gigaginormous X-Ray flare--not from a red giant, or an energetic pulsar, but from II Pegasi, a young orange star 80% the mass of the sun. Yes, from a smaller star than the sun. The energy released by this flare was a hundred million times more than a typical solar flare and was compared to 50 million trillion atom bombs.NASA said, "Had it been from our sun, it would have triggered a mass extinction on Earth".
To be fair I must point out that II Pegasi is part of a binary system (its sister star is half the size) and rotates much faster than our sun. But considering we've only been aware of solar flares for 200 years or so; and mankind has only been around for a tiny fraction of the sun's 4.3 billion years; I believe it's a bit presumptive for NASA to rule out killer solar flares as "physical impossibility". However improbable, a much smaller flare from the sun could set in motion extinction-level events of man's own making.

Read "Monster Stellar Flare Seen By NASA Scientists Dwarfs All Others" here:

[link to www.nasa.gov]
anonbutttp
Hugh M Eye

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11/18/2011 11:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Oozing Orange Sunshine...short video close-up of the sun. WARNING: May trigger acid flashbacks.

[link to apod.nasa.gov]
afro
tomasgod1

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11/19/2011 02:25 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another large far-side CME last night spotted on SOHO LASCO Cor 2:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

CACTUS CME movie of yesterday's BIG ONE. The weaker CME on the lower right may be Earth-directed but BIG ONE is not.

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

And from SEEDS project:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Watch SOHO's time-lapse (no pun intended) movie of the last three days. Wow, it's hard to keep count of the multitude of CMEs.

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Good job SOHO! Gee with SOHO starting to come on line and act like it used to "10 yrs ago!", it makes one wonder if eesa(hehe)isn't pushing this co-op project of theirs with NASA through.

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 11/19/2011 02:51 AM
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miatard

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11/19/2011 02:34 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
RE: KILLER SOLAR FLARES

NASA DEBUNKS NASA!

In a widely published and discussed press release last week entitled "2012: Killer Solar Flares Are A Physical Impossibility", NASA Goddard spokeswoman Karen C. Fox stated "Even at their worst, the sun's flares are not physically capable of destroying Earth". She may have been technically correct as a cooked, lifeless Earth may not qualify as "destroyed". It depends how you define destroyed. If you haven't seen it yet, the NASA 2012 press release here:
[link to www.nasa.gov]

Now I'm not foreseeing any cataclysmic, extinction-level event flares from the sun any time soon, but I believe they ARE a physical possibility. In Dec. 2005, NASA's Swift satellite detected a "Monster Stellar Flare" 135 light years away. Not an explosion, not a supernova, but a gigaginormous X-Ray flare--not from a red giant, or an energetic pulsar, but from II Pegasi, a young orange star 80% the mass of the sun. Yes, from a smaller star than the sun. The energy released by this flare was a hundred million times more than a typical solar flare and was compared to 50 million trillion atom bombs.NASA said, "Had it been from our sun, it would have triggered a mass extinction on Earth".
To be fair I must point out that II Pegasi is part of a binary system (its sister star is half the size) and rotates much faster than our sun. But considering we've only been aware of solar flares for 200 years or so; and mankind has only been around for a tiny fraction of the sun's 4.3 billion years; I believe it's a bit presumptive for NASA to rule out killer solar flares as "physical impossibility". However improbable, a much smaller flare from the sun could set in motion extinction-level events of man's own making.

Read "Monster Stellar Flare Seen By NASA Scientists Dwarfs All Others" here:

[link to www.nasa.gov]
anonbutttp
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


For a scientist to suggest that a killer solar is a physical impossibility is just stupidity or a big fat lie. I will bet on the latter. Why do they say such stupid things? Oh, yes most people are stupid and will now feel safe because the scientist has told them the Sun is not going to send a flare out the kill them. Ugh.
tomasgod1

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11/19/2011 02:41 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SHENZHOU 8 RETURNS TO EARTH: The unmanned Shenzhou 8 probe returned to Earth on Nov. 17th, wrapping up a three-week mission to China's Tiangong 1 space station. Shenzhou 8 spent its time in orbit practicing rendevous and docking maneuvers which are still new to China's upstart space program. Chinese authorities say the mission was a success. Tiangong 1 is still in orbit and may be seen flying through the night skies of North America this weekend. Check the S [link to www.spaceweather.com] Tracker or your smartphone for flyby times
_______

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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
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Anonymous Coward
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11/19/2011 02:42 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Oozing Orange Sunshine...short video close-up of the sun. WARNING: May trigger acid flashbacks.

[link to apod.nasa.gov]
afro
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


lol That's an interesting video though...
tomasgod1

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11/19/2011 02:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
RE: KILLER SOLAR FLARES

NASA DEBUNKS NASA!

In a widely published and discussed press release last week entitled "2012: Killer Solar Flares Are A Physical Impossibility", NASA Goddard spokeswoman Karen C. Fox stated "Even at their worst, the sun's flares are not physically capable of destroying Earth". She may have been technically correct as a cooked, lifeless Earth may not qualify as "destroyed". It depends how you define destroyed. If you haven't seen it yet, the NASA 2012 press release here:
[link to www.nasa.gov]

Now I'm not foreseeing any cataclysmic, extinction-level event flares from the sun any time soon, but I believe they ARE a physical possibility. In Dec. 2005, NASA's Swift satellite detected a "Monster Stellar Flare" 135 light years away. Not an explosion, not a supernova, but a gigaginormous X-Ray flare--not from a red giant, or an energetic pulsar, but from II Pegasi, a young orange star 80% the mass of the sun. Yes, from a smaller star than the sun. The energy released by this flare was a hundred million times more than a typical solar flare and was compared to 50 million trillion atom bombs.NASA said, "Had it been from our sun, it would have triggered a mass extinction on Earth".
To be fair I must point out that II Pegasi is part of a binary system (its sister star is half the size) and rotates much faster than our sun. But considering we've only been aware of solar flares for 200 years or so; and mankind has only been around for a tiny fraction of the sun's 4.3 billion years; I believe it's a bit presumptive for NASA to rule out killer solar flares as "physical impossibility". However improbable, a much smaller flare from the sun could set in motion extinction-level events of man's own making.

Read "Monster Stellar Flare Seen By NASA Scientists Dwarfs All Others" here:

[link to www.nasa.gov]
anonbutttp
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


The problem with "Karen" is that she mis stated all know facts. The Earth can get "Cooked". So there! "Karen" didn't see the Earth get "cooked' during her lifetime by a palsma ejection from the Sun, therefore Karen can say it's not possible. Karen is a "Kook", not a "Cook", and Karen would have said the same thing about Mercury 3 Months ago...but Karen can't do that now, because Karen has seen it happen to Mercury, as well as Venus during her lifetime, and she did miss it happen to Mars.

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 11/19/2011 02:59 AM
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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
tomasgod1

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11/19/2011 02:53 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CLUSTER MISSION REVEALS EARTH'S BOW SHOCK IS REMARKABLY THIN: The European Space Agency's Cluster mission data suggests that the bow shock formed by the solar wind as it encounters Earth's magnetic field measures only 17 kms across (about one-fifth of previous estimates). Cluster consists of 4 spacecraft flying in formation and measures spatial variations in temp. and other properties of particles in the plasma that surrounds Earth.

Electrons undergo a dramatic and abrupt rise in temp. near this 17 km bow shock region. Such a sharp transition is close to the limit and could hardly be any steeper-and thin shocks are better accelerators. More at Space Daily:

[link to www.spacedaily.com]

ESA Cluster homepage:

[link to sci.esa.int]

For a good introduction to particle acceleration physics and the magnetosphere I highly recommend NASA's "Magneto Mini-Golf" video game. All NASA joking aside, I actually found it very educational.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
spock
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Be careful of the "Dark Side" It sounds like they are becoming more luring then the most creative predators!...lol

goodvbad

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 11/19/2011 02:56 AM
_______

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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Starwind

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11/19/2011 03:02 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
RE: KILLER SOLAR FLARES

NASA DEBUNKS NASA!

In a widely published and discussed press release last week entitled "2012: Killer Solar Flares Are A Physical Impossibility", NASA Goddard spokeswoman Karen C. Fox stated "Even at their worst, the sun's flares are not physically capable of destroying Earth". She may have been technically correct as a cooked, lifeless Earth may not qualify as "destroyed". It depends how you define destroyed. If you haven't seen it yet, the NASA 2012 press release here:
[link to www.nasa.gov]

Now I'm not foreseeing any cataclysmic, extinction-level event flares from the sun any time soon, but I believe they ARE a physical possibility. In Dec. 2005, NASA's Swift satellite detected a "Monster Stellar Flare" 135 light years away. Not an explosion, not a supernova, but a gigaginormous X-Ray flare--not from a red giant, or an energetic pulsar, but from II Pegasi, a young orange star 80% the mass of the sun. Yes, from a smaller star than the sun. The energy released by this flare was a hundred million times more than a typical solar flare and was compared to 50 million trillion atom bombs.NASA said, "Had it been from our sun, it would have triggered a mass extinction on Earth".
To be fair I must point out that II Pegasi is part of a binary system (its sister star is half the size) and rotates much faster than our sun. But considering we've only been aware of solar flares for 200 years or so; and mankind has only been around for a tiny fraction of the sun's 4.3 billion years; I believe it's a bit presumptive for NASA to rule out killer solar flares as "physical impossibility". However improbable, a much smaller flare from the sun could set in motion extinction-level events of man's own making.

Read "Monster Stellar Flare Seen By NASA Scientists Dwarfs All Others" here:

[link to www.nasa.gov]
anonbutttp
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


The problem with "Karen" is that she mis stated all know facts. The Earth can get "Cooked". So there! "Karen" didn't see the Earth get "cooked' during her lifetime by a palsma ejection from the Sun, therefore Karen can say it's not possible. Karen is a "Kook", not a "Cook", and Karen would have said the same thing about Mercury 3 Months ago...but Karen can't do that now, because Karen has seen it happen to Mercury, as well as Venus during her lifetime.
 Quoting: tomasgod1


The article is downright negligent anyway. Most people read it as "NASA says the sun is not a threat" and use that to debunk any kind of solar flare, when the article specifically deals with the sun causing a "Knowing" style solar flare that bathes the earth in fire, not the dangers of very real x20s+ or CMEs or past solar activity on a scale beyond our modern electricity reliant culture.

What is best is that the article uses the justification that the solar maximum is not until after 2012 to debunk the theory of there being problems in 2012. That seems like it should not even have been used, especially by an article by NASA proposed to inform people.

That's like telling someone they will NEVER die in a car crash before 60 because their average life expectancy is 70.

Last Edited by Starwind on 11/19/2011 03:04 AM
tomasgod1

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11/19/2011 03:42 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
General Proton Density has increased significantly over the last few days.

[link to www.srl.caltech.edu]
_______

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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
tomasgod1

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11/19/2011 03:46 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.com]


_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
tomasgod1

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11/19/2011 04:09 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
"And know here is something we hope you'll really like!"

How about a little look at some of the "politics" behind the sceens at NASA and NOAA.



May 8, 2009


Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Update

May 8, 2009 -- The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has reached a consensus
decision on the prediction of the next solar cycle (Cycle 24). First, the panel
has agreed that solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
This still qualifies
as a prediction since the smoothed sunspot number is only valid through
September, 2008.
The panel has decided that the next solar cycle will be below
average in intensity, with a maximum sunspot number of 90.

Given the predicted
date of solar minimum and the predicted maximum intensity, solar maximum is now
expected to occur in May, 2013. Note, this is a consensus opinion, not a
unanimous decision. A supermajority of the panel did agree to this prediction
.

=============================================================​=================
=============================================================​=================

Recent Changes to Solar Cycle Values and Plots

March 2, 2009 -- The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has not issued any updates
to their prediction. However, the Space Weather Prediction Center, and the
Chair of the Prediction Panel decided to implement what they believe to be an
obvious change to the plotted data. The two predictions, of maximum being
either a SSN of 90 or a SSN of 140 remain intact. Once the date of solar
minimum is known, that is all the information needed to arrive at a prediction
curve. The panel prediction of solar minimum in March, 2008 has been eclipsed.
Minimum will now occur no earlier than August, 2008. For every month beyond
March 2008 that minimum slips, it is necessary to shift the prediction curves
by the same amount
.

SWPC commenced doing so in mid-February and will continue
to do
so, unless or until the prediction panel sets a new predicted date for
the time of solar minimum.


=============================================================​=================
=============================================================​=================

ISES Solar Cycle Progression and Prediction Displays

An initial ISES Solar Cycle 24 Prediction was released in April, 2007.
At that time, the panel charged with determining the prediction was unable
to agree on a single solution and provided two predictions. As of May, 2009

the panel has reached consensus on a single prediction for Solar Cycle 24.
It is the lower of the two predictions previously issued. The prediction
can be accessed from the file Predict.txt, described below.

The solar cycle text and graphic files track the Solar Cycle
progression. The same data and plots appear in SWPC's "Weekly"
publication in Adobe format at URL:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

UPDATE SCHEDULE:
The Solar Cycle products are updated once a month and are
put on-line the first Tuesday after the new values are available.
The latest values are usually available on the 3rd of every month.


TERMS AND DEFINITIONS:

Observed numbers are simple averages of the daily values for the month.

SWO Sunspot Numbers are issued by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction
Center (SWPC) in Boulder Colorado, USA.

The official International Sunspot Number (RI) is issued by the Sunspot
Index Data Center (SIDC) in Brussels, Belgium. Data and plots are available
from the SIDC web site at [link to sidc.oma.be]

10.7cm Radio Flux is the preliminary observed value measured in
Penticton, B.C. Canada. The values are displayed in solar flux units
(1 sfu = 10^-22 W/m^2/Hz).

The Ap Geomagnetic Index is the preliminary estimate calculated
by the United States Air Force (USAF).

For daily values, see [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Daily Solar Data -- last 30 days
Daily Solar Data -- current quarter
Solar, Particle, and Geomag. Indices beginning Jan. 1994

Smooth values are an average of 13 monthly observed values centered on
the month of concern (the 1st and 13th months are given a weight of 0.5).
Ap(avg)=(0.5*Ap(1) +1.0*Ap(2) +1.0*Ap(3)+ ... +1.0*Ap(12) +0.5*Ap(13))/12.0


SWPC products use preliminary values. Final values are available through
the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) at [link to www.ngdc.noaa.gov]
normally one to two months later.


CONTENTS:

This directory contains the following tabular lists:
a) Predict.txt - Predictions of SIDC sunspot number and 10.7cm
radio flux. This table contains the prediction issued by the ISES prediction
panel for solar cycle 24. Also given are error bars indicating the uncertainty
in the prediction. The table runs from the most current prediction through
January 2016. Because the predictions are for 13-month running smoothed
values, the first entry is always six months behind the issue date. High
and low bounds to the forecast are also provided.

b) RecentIndices.txt -
Recent Solar Indices (Preliminary)
of Observed Monthly Mean Values
The table includes the monthly averages and 13-month running smoothed values
from January 1991 to the present for:
SWO and SIDC sunspot numbers, and the ratio between the two,
10.7cm radio flux, and Estimated Planetary Ap.

Note: The August 2008 Sunspot number ratio (RI/SW) was minus 1 (-1).
The observed RI number was 0.5 and the SWO number was 0.0 which made
the RI/SW ratio a divide by 0. RI and SWO numbers are not calculated in
the same way. SWO has a non-zero sunspot number only if there was a
numbered active region on the disk. SIDC, the official home for RI sunspot
numbers, does not have this same requirement.

c) Predict_low.txt - This file still exists, but there is no longer a
link provided from a web page. It now contains fill data indicating invalid
data. Previously, it contained the lower than average prediction for Solar
Cycle 24 that was released in April, 2007.

d) Predict_high.txt - This file still exists, but there is no longer a
link provided from a web page. It now contains fill data indicating invalid
data. Previously, it contained the higher than average prediction for Solar
Cycle 24 that was released in April, 2007.


The following plots are available:
a) sunspot.gif - ISES Solar Cycle Sunspot Number Progression. This
plot displays SIDC monthly sunspot numbers, SIDC 13-month running smoothed
sunpot numbers, and the most recent forecasts for the low and high predictions.

b) f10.gif - ISES Solar Cycle F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression. This
plot displays monthly Penticton 10.7 cm Radio Flux values, 13-month
running smoothed values, and the most recent forecasts for the low and
high predictions.

c) Ap.gif - ISES Solar Cycle Ap Progression. This plot displays
monthly average Ap values and 13-month running smoothed Ap values. The most
recent data are always USAF estimates; offical values are included as they
become available.


Alternative Solar Cycle Plots are available at:
[link to solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov] and
[link to sidc.oma.be]
[link to www.ips.gov.au]

Please send questions and comments to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] See next post for part two!

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 11/19/2011 04:12 AM
_______

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YouTube Channel
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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
tomasgod1

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11/19/2011 05:04 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So lets take a quick look at solarcycle 24's beginning. Let's also look at some backround information and compare the calculated number of predicted sunspots for this cycle per NOAA("#90", never higher than "#140" through completion of the cycle in 2013), with what we have so far, as of November, 19, 2011.

Jan. 10, 2008:

Hang on to your cell phone, a new solar cycle has just begun.

"On January 4, 2008, a reversed-polarity sunspot appeared—and this signals the start of Solar Cycle 24," says David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.

newspot


Above: Images of the first sunspot of Solar Cycle 24 taken by the NASA/ESA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). [Larger image] [Movie]

Solar activity waxes and wanes in 11-year cycles. Lately, we've been experiencing the low ebb, "very few flares, sunspots, or activity of any kind," says Hathaway. "Solar minimum is upon us."

The previous solar cycle, Solar Cycle 23, peaked in 2000-2002 with many furious solar storms. That cycle decayed as usual to the present quiet leaving solar physicists little to do other than wonder, when would the next cycle begin?

The answer is now.
"New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot," explains Hathaway. "Reversed polarity" means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle spots appear higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude.

The sunspot that appeared on January 4th fits both these criteria. It was high latitude (30 degrees N) and magnetically reversed. NOAA named the spot AR10981, or "sunspot 981" for short.

Sunspot 981 was small--only about as wide as Earth, which counts as small on the grand scale of the sun--and it has already faded away. But its three day appearance on Jan. 4-6 was enough to convince most solar physicists that Solar Cycle 24 is underway.

calvina
Above...
The first auroras of the new solar cycle, photographed Jan. 4, 2008, by Calvin Hall of Palmer, Alaska.

Doug Biesecker of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, likens sunspot 981 "to the first robin of spring. There's still snow on the ground, but the seasons are changing." Last year, Biesecker chaired the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel, an international group of experts from many universities and government agencies. "We predicted that Solar Cycle 24 would begin around March 2008 and it looks like we weren't far off," he says.

The onset of a new solar cycle is significant because of our increasingly space-based technological society.
"Solar storms can disable satellites that we depend on for weather forecasts and GPS navigation," says Hathaway. Radio bursts from solar flares can directly interfere with cell phone reception while coronal mass ejections (CMEs) hitting Earth can cause electrical power outages. "The most famous example is the Quebec outage of 1989, which left some Canadians without power for as much as six days."

Air travel can be affected, too.

Every year, intercontinental flights carry thousands of passengers over Earth’s poles. It's the shortest distance between, say, New York and Tokyo or Beijing and Chicago. In 1999, United Airlines made just twelve trips over the Arctic. By 2005, the number of flights had ballooned to 1,402. Other airlines report similar growth.

"Solar storms have a big effect on polar regions of our planet," says Steve Hill of the Space Weather Prediction Center. "When airplanes fly over the poles during solar storms, they can experience radio blackouts, navigation errors and computer reboots all caused by space radiation." Avoiding the poles during solar storms solves the problem, but it costs extra time, money and fuel to "take the long way around."

"Intense solar activity won't begin immediately," notes Hathaway. "Solar cycles usually take a few years to build from solar minimum (where we are now) to Solar Max, expected in 2011 or 2012."

[link to science.nasa.gov]



The total of numbered Regions to date(November 19, 2011)is 375.
Beginning with Region 981, to 1355 that we have coming around the bend as I speak.

charmap1


This is more than 3 times the number of Regions that were predicted by NOAA for all of Cycle 24 from beginning to end.

For NOAA to have to continually number new Sunspot Regions is (and has been for a while now) putting a black cloud over their prediction(s).

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 11/19/2011 05:50 AM
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Anonymous Coward
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11/19/2011 05:45 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So lets take a quick look at solarcycle 24's beginning. Let's also look at some backround information and compare the calculated number of predicted sunspots for this cycle per NOAA("#90", never higher than "#140" through completion of the cycle in 2013), with what we have so far, as of November, 19, 2011.

Jan. 10, 2008:

Hang on to your cell phone, a new solar cycle has just begun.

"On January 4, 2008, a reversed-polarity sunspot appeared—and this signals the start of Solar Cycle 24," says David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.

:newspot:


Above: Images of the first sunspot of Solar Cycle 24 taken by the NASA/ESA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). [Larger image] [Movie]

Solar activity waxes and wanes in 11-year cycles. Lately, we've been experiencing the low ebb, "very few flares, sunspots, or activity of any kind," says Hathaway. "Solar minimum is upon us."

The previous solar cycle, Solar Cycle 23, peaked in 2000-2002 with many furious solar storms. That cycle decayed as usual to the present quiet leaving solar physicists little to do other than wonder, when would the next cycle begin?

The answer is now.
"New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot," explains Hathaway. "Reversed polarity" means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle spots appear higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude.

The sunspot that appeared on January 4th fits both these criteria. It was high latitude (30 degrees N) and magnetically reversed. NOAA named the spot AR10981, or "sunspot 981" for short.

Sunspot 981 was small--only about as wide as Earth, which counts as small on the grand scale of the sun--and it has already faded away. But its three day appearance on Jan. 4-6 was enough to convince most solar physicists that Solar Cycle 24 is underway.

:calvina:
Above...
The first auroras of the new solar cycle, photographed Jan. 4, 2008, by Calvin Hall of Palmer, Alaska.

Doug Biesecker of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, likens sunspot 981 "to the first robin of spring. There's still snow on the ground, but the seasons are changing." Last year, Biesecker chaired the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel, an international group of experts from many universities and government agencies. "We predicted that Solar Cycle 24 would begin around March 2008 and it looks like we weren't far off," he says.

The onset of a new solar cycle is significant because of our increasingly space-based technological society.
"Solar storms can disable satellites that we depend on for weather forecasts and GPS navigation," says Hathaway. Radio bursts from solar flares can directly interfere with cell phone reception while coronal mass ejections (CMEs) hitting Earth can cause electrical power outages. "The most famous example is the Quebec outage of 1989, which left some Canadians without power for as much as six days."

Air travel can be affected, too.

Every year, intercontinental flights carry thousands of passengers over Earth’s poles. It's the shortest distance between, say, New York and Tokyo or Beijing and Chicago. In 1999, United Airlines made just twelve trips over the Arctic. By 2005, the number of flights had ballooned to 1,402. Other airlines report similar growth.

"Solar storms have a big effect on polar regions of our planet," says Steve Hill of the Space Weather Prediction Center. "When airplanes fly over the poles during solar storms, they can experience radio blackouts, navigation errors and computer reboots all caused by space radiation." Avoiding the poles during solar storms solves the problem, but it costs extra time, money and fuel to "take the long way around."

"Intense solar activity won't begin immediately," notes Hathaway. "Solar cycles usually take a few years to build from solar minimum (where we are now) to Solar Max, expected in 2011 or 2012."

[link to science.nasa.gov]



The total of numbered Regions to date(November 19, 2011)is 375.
Beginning with Region 981, to 1355 that we have coming around the bend as I speak.

:charmap1:


This is more than 3 times the number of Regions that were predicted by NOAA for all of Cycle 24 from beginning to end.

For NOAA to have to number a Sunspot Region is (and has been for a while)putting a black cloud over their
prediction(s).
 Quoting: tomasgod1


!!!

Hi tom,


wow thats insane...
tomasgod1

User ID: 4888469
United States
11/19/2011 05:47 AM
Report Abusive Post
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So lets take a quick look at solarcycle 24's beginning. Let's also look at some backround information and compare the calculated number of predicted sunspots for this cycle per NOAA("#90", never higher than "#140" through completion of the cycle in 2013), with what we have so far, as of November, 19, 2011.

Jan. 10, 2008:

Hang on to your cell phone, a new solar cycle has just begun.

"On January 4, 2008, a reversed-polarity sunspot appeared—and this signals the start of Solar Cycle 24," says David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.

newspot


Above: Images of the first sunspot of Solar Cycle 24 taken by the NASA/ESA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). [Larger image] [Movie]

Solar activity waxes and wanes in 11-year cycles. Lately, we've been experiencing the low ebb, "very few flares, sunspots, or activity of any kind," says Hathaway. "Solar minimum is upon us."

The previous solar cycle, Solar Cycle 23, peaked in 2000-2002 with many furious solar storms. That cycle decayed as usual to the present quiet leaving solar physicists little to do other than wonder, when would the next cycle begin?

The answer is now.
"New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot," explains Hathaway. "Reversed polarity" means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle spots appear higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude.

The sunspot that appeared on January 4th fits both these criteria. It was high latitude (30 degrees N) and magnetically reversed. NOAA named the spot AR10981, or "sunspot 981" for short.

Sunspot 981 was small--only about as wide as Earth, which counts as small on the grand scale of the sun--and it has already faded away. But its three day appearance on Jan. 4-6 was enough to convince most solar physicists that Solar Cycle 24 is underway.

calvina
Above...
The first auroras of the new solar cycle, photographed Jan. 4, 2008, by Calvin Hall of Palmer, Alaska.

Doug Biesecker of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, likens sunspot 981 "to the first robin of spring. There's still snow on the ground, but the seasons are changing." Last year, Biesecker chaired the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel, an international group of experts from many universities and government agencies. "We predicted that Solar Cycle 24 would begin around March 2008 and it looks like we weren't far off," he says.

The onset of a new solar cycle is significant because of our increasingly space-based technological society.
"Solar storms can disable satellites that we depend on for weather forecasts and GPS navigation," says Hathaway. Radio bursts from solar flares can directly interfere with cell phone reception while coronal mass ejections (CMEs) hitting Earth can cause electrical power outages. "The most famous example is the Quebec outage of 1989, which left some Canadians without power for as much as six days."

Air travel can be affected, too.

Every year, intercontinental flights carry thousands of passengers over Earth’s poles. It's the shortest distance between, say, New York and Tokyo or Beijing and Chicago. In 1999, United Airlines made just twelve trips over the Arctic. By 2005, the number of flights had ballooned to 1,402. Other airlines report similar growth.

"Solar storms have a big effect on polar regions of our planet," says Steve Hill of the Space Weather Prediction Center. "When airplanes fly over the poles during solar storms, they can experience radio blackouts, navigation errors and computer reboots all caused by space radiation." Avoiding the poles during solar storms solves the problem, but it costs extra time, money and fuel to "take the long way around."

"Intense solar activity won't begin immediately," notes Hathaway. "Solar cycles usually take a few years to build from solar minimum (where we are now) to Solar Max, expected in 2011 or 2012."

[link to science.nasa.gov]



The total of numbered Regions to date(November 19, 2011)is 375.
Beginning with Region 981, to 1355 that we have coming around the bend as I speak.

charmap1


This is more than 3 times the number of Regions that were predicted by NOAA for all of Cycle 24 from beginning to end.

For NOAA to have to number a Sunspot Region is (and has been for a while)putting a black cloud over their
prediction(s).
 Quoting: tomasgod1


!!!

Hi tom,


wow thats insane...
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


hi IWTB!
_______

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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
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tomasgod1

User ID: 4888469
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11/19/2011 05:59 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
:Predicted_Sunspot_Numbers_and_Radio_Flux: Predict.txt
:Created: 2011 Nov 08 2000 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).
# Please send comments and suggestions to swpc.webmaster@noaa.gov
#
# Sunspot Number: S.I.D.C. Brussels International Sunspot Number.
# 10.7cm Radio Flux value: Penticton, B.C. Canada.
# Predicted values are based on the consensus of the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel.
#
# See the README3 file for further information.
#
# Missing or not applicable data: -1
#
# Predicted Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values
# With Expected Ranges
#
# -----Sunspot Number------ ----10.7 cm Radio Flux----
# YR MO PREDICTED HIGH LOW PREDICTED HIGH LOW
#------------------------------------------------------------​--
2011 05 46.6 47.6 45.6 104.5 105.5 103.5
2011 06 51.2 53.2 49.2 108.0 109.0 107.0
2011 07 56.0 59.0 53.0 111.6 113.6 109.6
2011 08 60.4 65.4 55.4 115.0 118.0 112.0
2011 09 63.4 68.4 58.4 117.1 121.1 113.1
2011 10 65.5 71.5 59.5 118.6 122.6 114.6
2011 11 68.3 75.3 61.3 121.1 126.1 116.1
2011 12 71.9 78.9 64.9 124.3 130.3 118.3
2012 01 75.5 83.5 67.5 127.7 134.7 120.7
2012 02 78.7 87.7 69.7 131.0 139.0 123.0
2012 03 80.5 89.5 71.5 132.6 140.6 124.6
2012 04 80.8 90.8 70.8 132.8 141.8 123.8
2012 05 81.5 91.5 71.5 133.5 142.5 124.5
2012 06 83.5 93.5 73.5 135.3 144.3 126.3
2012 07 84.6 94.6 74.6 136.4 145.4 127.4
2012 08 85.7 95.7 75.7 137.4 146.4 128.4
2012 09 86.6 96.6 76.6 138.2 147.2 129.2
2012 10 87.5 97.5 77.5 139.0 148.0 130.0
2012 11 88.2 98.2 78.2 139.6 148.6 130.6
2012 12 88.7 98.7 78.7 140.2 149.2 131.2
2013 01 89.2 99.2 79.2 140.6 149.6 131.6
2013 02 89.6 99.6 79.6 140.9 149.9 131.9
2013 03 89.8 99.8 79.8 141.1 150.1 132.1
2013 04 89.9 99.9 79.9 141.3 150.3 132.3
2013 05 90.0 100.0 80.0 141.3 150.3 132.3
2013 06 89.9 99.9 79.9 141.2 150.2 132.2
2013 07 89.7 99.7 79.7 141.0 150.0 132.0
2013 08 89.4 99.4 79.4 140.7 149.7 131.7
2013 09 89.0 99.0 79.0 140.4 149.4 131.4
2013 10 88.5 98.5 78.5 139.9 148.9 130.9
2013 11 87.9 97.9 77.9 139.4 148.4 130.4
2013 12 87.2 97.2 77.2 138.8 147.8 129.8
2014 01 86.4 96.4 76.4 138.1 147.1 129.1
2014 02 85.6 95.6 75.6 137.3 146.3 128.3
2014 03 84.7 94.7 74.7 136.4 145.4 127.4
2014 04 83.7 93.7 73.7 135.5 144.5 126.5
2014 05 82.6 92.6 72.6 134.5 143.5 125.5
2014 06 81.4 91.4 71.4 133.5 142.5 124.5
2014 07 80.2 90.2 70.2 132.3 141.3 123.3
2014 08 78.9 88.9 68.9 131.2 140.2 122.2
2014 09 77.6 87.6 67.6 129.9 138.9 120.9
2014 10 76.2 86.2 66.2 128.7 137.7 119.7
2014 11 74.8 84.8 64.8 127.4 136.4 118.4
2014 12 73.3 83.3 63.3 126.0 135.0 117.0
2015 01 71.8 81.8 61.8 124.6 133.6 115.6
2015 02 70.2 80.2 60.2 123.2 132.2 114.2
2015 03 68.7 78.7 58.7 121.7 130.7 112.7
2015 04 67.0 77.0 57.0 120.2 129.2 111.2
2015 05 65.4 75.4 55.4 118.7 127.7 109.7
2015 06 63.8 73.8 53.8 117.2 126.2 108.2
2015 07 62.1 72.1 52.1 115.7 124.7 106.7
2015 08 60.4 70.4 50.4 114.1 123.1 105.1
2015 09 58.7 68.7 48.7 112.6 121.6 103.6
2015 10 57.0 67.0 47.0 111.0 120.0 102.0
2015 11 55.3 65.3 45.3 109.5 118.5 100.5
2015 12 53.6 63.6 43.6 107.9 116.9 98.9
2016 01 51.9 61.9 41.9 106.3 115.3 97.3
2016 02 50.2 60.2 40.2 104.8 113.8 95.8
2016 03 48.5 58.5 38.5 103.2 112.2 94.2
2016 04 46.9 56.9 36.9 101.7 110.7 92.7
2016 05 45.2 55.2 35.2 100.2 109.2 91.2
2016 06 43.6 53.6 33.6 98.7 107.7 89.7
2016 07 42.0 52.0 32.0 97.2 106.2 88.2
2016 08 40.4 50.4 30.4 95.8 104.8 86.8
2016 09 38.8 48.8 28.8 94.3 103.3 85.3
2016 10 37.3 47.3 27.3 92.9 101.9 83.9
2016 11 35.7 45.7 25.7 91.5 100.5 82.5
2016 12 34.3 44.3 24.3 90.2 99.2 81.2
2017 01 32.8 42.8 22.8 88.8 97.8 79.8
2017 02 31.4 41.4 21.4 87.5 96.5 78.5
2017 03 30.0 40.0 20.0 86.3 95.3 77.3
2017 04 28.7 38.7 18.7 85.0 94.0 76.0
2017 05 27.4 37.4 17.4 83.8 92.8 74.8
2017 06 26.1 36.1 16.1 82.6 91.6 73.6
2017 07 24.9 34.9 14.9 81.5 90.5 72.5
2017 08 23.7 33.7 13.7 80.4 89.4 71.4
2017 09 22.5 32.5 12.5 79.3 88.3 70.3
2017 10 21.4 31.4 11.4 78.3 87.3 69.3
2017 11 20.3 30.3 10.3 77.3 86.3 68.3
2017 12 19.2 29.2 9.2 76.4 85.4 67.4
2018 01 18.2 28.2 8.2 75.4 84.4 66.4
2018 02 17.2 27.2 7.2 74.5 83.5 65.5
2018 03 16.3 26.3 6.3 73.7 82.7 64.7
2018 04 15.4 25.4 5.4 72.8 81.8 63.8
2018 05 14.5 24.5 4.5 72.1 81.1 63.1
2018 06 13.7 23.7 3.7 71.3 80.3 62.3
2018 07 12.9 22.9 2.9 70.6 79.6 61.6
2018 08 12.2 22.2 2.2 69.9 78.9 60.9
2018 09 11.5 21.5 1.5 69.2 78.2 60.2
2018 10 10.8 20.8 0.8 68.6 77.6 60.0
2018 11 10.1 20.1 0.1 68.0 77.0 60.0
2018 12 9.5 19.5 0.0 67.4 76.4 60.0
2019 01 8.9 18.9 0.0 66.9 75.9 60.0
2019 02 8.3 18.3 0.0 66.3 75.3 60.0
2019 03 7.8 17.8 0.0 65.9 74.9 60.0
2019 04 7.3 17.3 0.0 65.4 74.4 60.0
2019 05 6.8 16.8 0.0 65.0 74.0 60.0
2019 06 6.4 16.4 0.0 64.5 73.5 60.0
2019 07 5.9 15.9 0.0 64.1 73.1 60.0
2019 08 5.5 15.5 0.0 63.8 72.8 60.0
2019 09 5.1 15.1 0.0 63.4 72.4 60.0
2019 10 4.8 14.8 0.0 63.1 72.1 60.0
2019 11 4.4 14.4 0.0 62.8 71.8 60.0
2019 12 4.1 14.1 0.0 62.5 71.5 60.0

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
:Recent_Solar_Indices: RecentIndices.txt
:Created: 2011 Nov 08 2040 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).
# Please send comments and suggestions to swpc.webmaster@noaa.gov
#
# Source SWO: SWPC Space Weather Operations (SWO).
# Source RI: S.I.D.C. Brussels International Sunspot Number.
# Source 10.7cm radio flux values (sfu): Penticton, B.C., Canada.
#
# Source Ap: GeoForschungsZentrum, Postdam, Germany
# Prior to January 1997, Institut fur Geophysik, Gottingen, Germany
# Source Ap for final month is Estimated Ap: USAF, AFWA, Offutt AFB, Nebraska.
#
# Data not yet available or not calculable: -1.0
#
# Values for most recent 6 months are considered preliminary.
# Final values from National Geophysical Data Center www.ngdc.noaa.gov
#
# Recent Solar Indices
# of Observed Monthly Mean Values
#
# -----------Sunspot Numbers--------- ----Radio Flux--- ---Geomagnetic---
# ---Observed---- Ratio --Smoothed- Observed Smoothed Observed Smoothed
# YR MO SWO RI RI/SW SWO RI 10.7cm 10.7cm Ap Ap
#------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------
2011 01 32.1 18.8 0.59 47.2 30.9 83.7 91.2 6 6.7
2011 02 53.2 29.6 0.55 50.6 33.4 94.5 92.7 6 6.8
2011 03 81.0 55.8 0.69 55.2 36.9 115.3 95.8 7 7.2
2011 04 81.7 54.4 0.67 61.8 41.8 112.6 100.4 9 7.5
2011 05 61.4 41.5 0.68 -1.0 -1.0 95.9 -1.0 9 -1.0
2011 06 55.5 37.0 0.67 -1.0 -1.0 95.8 -1.0 8 -1.0
2011 07 67.0 43.9 0.66 -1.0 -1.0 94.2 -1.0 9 -1.0
2011 08 66.1 50.6 0.77 -1.0 -1.0 101.7 -1.0 8 -1.0
2011 09 106.4 78.0 0.73 -1.0 -1.0 134.5 -1.0 13 -1.0
2011 10 123.5 88.0 0.71 -1.0 -1.0 137.2 -1.0 7 -1.0
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 11/19/2011 06:12 AM
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11/19/2011 06:17 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Nov 15 2044 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-11-15
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Nov 16 150 5 2
2011 Nov 17 160 5 2
2011 Nov 18 160 5 2
2011 Nov 19 160 5 2
2011 Nov 20 155 5 2
2011 Nov 21 155 5 2
2011 Nov 22 150 5 2
2011 Nov 23 150 5 2
2011 Nov 24 150 5 2
2011 Nov 25 145 7 3
2011 Nov 26 145 7 3
2011 Nov 27 155 5 2
2011 Nov 28 165 5 2
2011 Nov 29 165 5 2
2011 Nov 30 170 5 2
2011 Dec 01 175 5 2
2011 Dec 02 180 5 2
2011 Dec 03 160 5 2
2011 Dec 04 165 5 2
2011 Dec 05 165 5 2
2011 Dec 06 180 5 2
2011 Dec 07 180 5 2
2011 Dec 08 175 5 2
2011 Dec 09 170 8 3
2011 Dec 10 160 5 3
2011 Dec 11 160 5 2
2011 Dec 12 155 5 2


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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
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11/19/2011 06:21 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts:Issued: 2011 Nov 15 2044 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
07 - 13 November 2011

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Activity began at low
levels on 07 November, although Regions 1339 (N19E45, L=102,
class/area Fkc/1540 on 04 November) and 1338 (S=14, L=121,
class/area Ehi/375 on 03 November) both exhibited spot areal
coverage growth. Late on 07 November, a filament channel eruption
was observed in SDO/AIA imagery beginning around 07/2232Z. LASCO C2
imagery first indicated a CME liftoff from the NW limb at 07/2348Z.
Activity remained at low levels on 08 November, as Regions 1339 and
1338 both started to decay and simplify magnetically. On 09
November, activity increased to moderate levels when a long duration
M1 flare occurred at 09/1335Z. Associated with this event were a
Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 750 km/s and
an Earth directed full-halo CME, visible in LASCO C2 imagery at
09/1336Z. Activity decreased to low levels on 10 November with the
largest event of the day being a C6/1f flare at 10/1831Z. Region
1339 remained the largest region on the disk but continued to decay.
On 11 November, activity remained at low levels with Region 1344
(S19, L=101, class/area Dai/200 on 12 November) producing a long
duration C4/Sf flare at 11/0705Z with an associated partial-halo
CME. The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 825 km/s, based
on SOHO/LASCO C2 images, and appeared to have a slight earth
directed component. On 12 November, activity remained at low levels
with occasional C-class flares. Regions 1339 and 1338 continued to
decay while Region 1344 continued to increase in magnetic
complexity, areal coverage, and total spot count before stabilizing
on 13 November

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
The period began under quiet to unsettled conditons on 07 November.
Activity increased on 08 November to quiet to unsettled conditions
with isolated periods of active to minor storm levels at high
latitudes. Mostly quiet levels returned on 09 November and continued
through 13 November.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 November - 12 December 2011

Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels with a
chance for M-class activity through the period. Old Region 1339
(N19, L=102) returns on 27 November bringing an increased
probability of M-class activity and a slight chance for an X-class
event.


No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at background levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet for the greater
portion of the forecast period. Unsettled conditions are possible on
26-27 November and again on 09-10 December with the return of
recurrent coronal hole high speed streams.


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 11/19/2011 06:22 AM
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Starwind

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11/19/2011 06:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So triple the amount of predicted sunspots already, with the peak not coming until 2013, while they tell us that the sun will NEVER do this or NEVER do that. Sounds about right.
Anonymous Coward
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11/19/2011 09:27 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good Morning Everyone
Anonymous Coward
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11/19/2011 12:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Region 1342 rotated off the visible disc yesterday,

Region 1354 rotated onto the solar disc and region re-appeared after disappearing 2 days ago, that leaves 10 groups visible

5 out of the 10 visible groups are single spot groups with a alpha (single) magnetic configuration



1354

:1354:


:Region1354:





:SunNov19:
SunspotOverview
Enlarge:
[link to www.solen.info]


Helioviewer Fulldisc Movie:

[link to helioviewer.org]


Helioviewer NewRegions Movie:

[link to helioviewer.org]



Sun in Ca-K-Light date 19-11-2011 time 10:39 UTC



[link to www.youtube.com]
leaner
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11/19/2011 04:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So lets take a quick look at solarcycle 24's beginning. Let's also look at some backround information and compare the calculated number of predicted sunspots for this cycle per NOAA("#90", never higher than "#140" through completion of the cycle in 2013), with what we have so far, as of November, 19, 2011.

Jan. 10, 2008:

Hang on to your cell phone, a new solar cycle has just begun.

"On January 4, 2008, a reversed-polarity sunspot appeared—and this signals the start of Solar Cycle 24," says David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.

:newspot:


Above: Images of the first sunspot of Solar Cycle 24 taken by the NASA/ESA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). [Larger image] [Movie]

Solar activity waxes and wanes in 11-year cycles. Lately, we've been experiencing the low ebb, "very few flares, sunspots, or activity of any kind," says Hathaway. "Solar minimum is upon us."

The previous solar cycle, Solar Cycle 23, peaked in 2000-2002 with many furious solar storms. That cycle decayed as usual to the present quiet leaving solar physicists little to do other than wonder, when would the next cycle begin?

The answer is now.
"New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot," explains Hathaway. "Reversed polarity" means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle spots appear higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude.

The sunspot that appeared on January 4th fits both these criteria. It was high latitude (30 degrees N) and magnetically reversed. NOAA named the spot AR10981, or "sunspot 981" for short.

Sunspot 981 was small--only about as wide as Earth, which counts as small on the grand scale of the sun--and it has already faded away. But its three day appearance on Jan. 4-6 was enough to convince most solar physicists that Solar Cycle 24 is underway.

:calvina:
Above...
The first auroras of the new solar cycle, photographed Jan. 4, 2008, by Calvin Hall of Palmer, Alaska.

Doug Biesecker of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, likens sunspot 981 "to the first robin of spring. There's still snow on the ground, but the seasons are changing." Last year, Biesecker chaired the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel, an international group of experts from many universities and government agencies. "We predicted that Solar Cycle 24 would begin around March 2008 and it looks like we weren't far off," he says.

The onset of a new solar cycle is significant because of our increasingly space-based technological society.
"Solar storms can disable satellites that we depend on for weather forecasts and GPS navigation," says Hathaway. Radio bursts from solar flares can directly interfere with cell phone reception while coronal mass ejections (CMEs) hitting Earth can cause electrical power outages. "The most famous example is the Quebec outage of 1989, which left some Canadians without power for as much as six days."

Air travel can be affected, too.

Every year, intercontinental flights carry thousands of passengers over Earth’s poles. It's the shortest distance between, say, New York and Tokyo or Beijing and Chicago. In 1999, United Airlines made just twelve trips over the Arctic. By 2005, the number of flights had ballooned to 1,402. Other airlines report similar growth.

"Solar storms have a big effect on polar regions of our planet," says Steve Hill of the Space Weather Prediction Center. "When airplanes fly over the poles during solar storms, they can experience radio blackouts, navigation errors and computer reboots all caused by space radiation." Avoiding the poles during solar storms solves the problem, but it costs extra time, money and fuel to "take the long way around."

"Intense solar activity won't begin immediately," notes Hathaway. "Solar cycles usually take a few years to build from solar minimum (where we are now) to Solar Max, expected in 2011 or 2012."

[link to science.nasa.gov]



The total of numbered Regions to date(November 19, 2011)is 375.
Beginning with Region 981, to 1355 that we have coming around the bend as I speak.

:charmap1:


This is more than 3 times the number of Regions that were predicted by NOAA for all of Cycle 24 from beginning to end.

For NOAA to have to continually number new Sunspot Regions is (and has been for a while now) putting a black cloud over their prediction(s).
 Quoting: tomasgod1




!
Hugh M Eye

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11/19/2011 10:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
New active region #11356 is creepin' over the eastern limb and it sure is a humdinger. Two large penumbral spots are noticeable but it's too soon to tell exactly how big and menacing this region is. Several C-flares have already been recorded and this is the most likely source of several CMEs in the past few days. I have a gut feeling 1356 will spit out some powerful flares and/or CMEs this week.

[link to www.lmsal.com]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

It seems to me that the filament near the equator could be more of a threat to Earth than the huge one in the northeast. If it should lift off explosively, It's equatorial location would almost certainly hurl some plasma our way. Latest H-alpha image from Udaipur Observatory.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

GONG Network H-alpha movie loop from Learmonth Obty.:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

SDO 3-wave composite image:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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11/20/2011 07:06 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)


[link to www.youtube.com]
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11/20/2011 10:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning....peace
Hugh M Eye

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11/20/2011 10:53 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Huge filament in the NW appears to be lifting off or breaking up now:

Movie loop from El Teide:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Recent SDO image:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

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