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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

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11/26/2011 11:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Proton count up
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5757371


Oh yep!


we have a long duration c flare this morning


and actually

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76

Good work, IWTB!
WOW! Just when you least expect it you wake up to a proton storm event.....from a C-flare! The CACTUS CME chart (below the movie loop) shows it's a very fast-moving ejection-about 1800 km/s.

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

There was a C1.2 flare from 1353 around the same time.

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Also a C4.9 from a new active region #1360:

[link to www.lmsal.com]

CME was so fast it's already visible in the STEREO A HI 1 field of view.

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
explosionalone
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2011 11:39 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Proton count up
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5757371


Oh yep!


we have a long duration c flare this morning


and actually

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76

Good work, IWTB!
WOW! Just when you least expect it you wake up to a proton storm event.....from a C-flare! The CACTUS CME chart (below the movie loop) shows it's a very fast-moving ejection-about 1800 km/s.

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

There was a C1.2 flare from 1353 around the same time.

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Also a C4.9 from a new active region #1360:

[link to www.lmsal.com]

CME was so fast it's already visible in the STEREO A HI 1 field of view.

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
explosionalone
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


thxhf
Hi HUGH! damn missed ya!

Glad to see ya back
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2011 11:53 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Update on the Vid this morning...




[link to www.youtube.com]
Hugh M Eye

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11/26/2011 12:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here is the Udaipur Observatoty's H-alpha move-you can see that filament on the west-side equator erupt as a strange two-channel flare flashes from 1353 (is this one of those Hyder flares?). The timing and location tells me this is what launched the CME-if so, it will certainly be geo-effective.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2011 12:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here is the Udaipur Observatoty's H-alpha move-you can see that filament on the west-side equator erupt as a strange two-channel flare flashes from 1353 (is this one of those Hyder flares?). The timing and location tells me this is what launched the CME-if so, it will certainly be geo-effective.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


damn u^^, i missed this

rly nice


:FlareandCMENOV26:

As u know
Region 1353 produced a long duration C2 solar flare this morning

I believe this solar flare produce this large coronal mass ejection

Image from SDO and STEREO show the flare and the CME.

The flare and the CME appear to be coming from a different side of the Sun, they are not, its only their position in space that gives that effect
Hugh M Eye

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11/26/2011 12:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here is the Udaipur Observatoty's H-alpha move-you can see that filament on the west-side equator erupt as a strange two-channel flare flashes from 1353 (is this one of those Hyder flares?). The timing and location tells me this is what launched the CME-if so, it will certainly be geo-effective.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


damn u^^, i missed this

rly nice


:FlareandCMENOV26:

As u know
Region 1353 produced a long duration C2 solar flare this morning

I believe this solar flare produce this large coronal mass ejection

Image from SDO and STEREO show the flare and the CME.

The flare and the CME appear to be coming from a different side of the Sun, they are not, its only their position in space that gives that effect
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76

Maybe you or someone can post a Helioviewer movie (Helioviewer always crashes immediately on my computer). Anyway here's some SDO views of event in 304 angstroms and 3-wave composite taken over 1 hour time frame(06:59-08:13 UTC):
AIA 304-
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AIA Composite (same time frames):
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2011 01:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey Hugh,

i have it also in this update(skip to 1:14):


Update on the Vid this morning...




[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76




lol but im actually creating a helioviewer movie(closeUp)...
Hugh M Eye

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11/26/2011 01:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I found a Solarsoft movie of the filament eruption and flare. Look at the bottom of frame and notice the filament disturbance before the flaring brightens.

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2011 02:15 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I found a Solarsoft movie of the filament eruption and flare. Look at the bottom of frame and notice the filament disturbance before the flaring brightens.

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


wow great one!


here close up helioviewer :

[link to helioviewer.org]


:giffilamentnov26:
Hugh M Eye

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11/26/2011 03:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I found a Solarsoft movie of the filament eruption and flare. Look at the bottom of frame and notice the filament disturbance before the flaring brightens.

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


wow great one!


here close up helioviewer :

[link to helioviewer.org]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Nice! You could clearly see stuff lifting off there. I'm still a little mystified why there was such a proton spike. We haven't seen that from the bigger filament eruptions or any of the recent CMEs. It may have something to do with the equatorial source and/or the velocity/shock-wave. This event may be positioned favorably to the Earth's magnetic footprint.
Hugh M Eye

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11/26/2011 03:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I found a Solarsoft movie of the filament eruption and flare. Look at the bottom of frame and notice the filament disturbance before the flaring brightens.

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


wow great one!


here close up helioviewer :

[link to helioviewer.org]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Nice! You could clearly see stuff lifting off there. I'm still a little mystified why there was such a proton spike. We haven't seen that from the bigger filament eruptions or any of the recent CMEs. It may have something to do with the equatorial source and/or the velocity/shock-wave. This event may be positioned favorably to the Earth's magnetic footprint.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

The only Earth-Sun Connectivity graphic I could find is five days old. I don't usually follow this data on a regular basis, so pardon my ignorance. In this image the Earth's magnetic footprint is right over AR11354 which is directly below that filament. If you recall, some of that filament already lifted off a few days ago-the remainder caused this morning's CME.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

My question is-does the Earth's footprint generally move across the disk along the same magnetic field lines? If so, then the eruption today was ideally located for maximum geo-effectiveness. Of course if they updated that graphic on a daily basis we'd have the answer...duh, LOL.
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2011 03:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I found a Solarsoft movie of the filament eruption and flare. Look at the bottom of frame and notice the filament disturbance before the flaring brightens.

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


wow great one!


here close up helioviewer :

[link to helioviewer.org]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Nice! You could clearly see stuff lifting off there. I'm still a little mystified why there was such a proton spike. We haven't seen that from the bigger filament eruptions or any of the recent CMEs. It may have something to do with the equatorial source and/or the velocity/shock-wave. This event may be positioned favorably to the Earth's magnetic footprint.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

The only Earth-Sun Connectivity graphic I could find is five days old. I don't usually follow this data on a regular basis, so pardon my ignorance. In this image the Earth's magnetic footprint is right over AR11354 which is directly below that filament. If you recall, some of that filament already lifted off a few days ago-the remainder caused this morning's CME.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

My question is-does the Earth's footprint generally move across the disk along the same magnetic field lines? If so, then the eruption today was ideally located for maximum geo-effectiveness. Of course if they updated that graphic on a daily basis we'd have the answer...duh, LOL.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


rly i love you hugh!

or better your knowledge, hehe^^



ISWA has an Alert now (CME from this morning)

Event Issue Date: 2011-11-26 17:53:45.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2011-11-28 14:23:08.0 GMT




[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]



and have a look IswaCygnetStreamer:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2011 05:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 November 2011

A long duration C1 flare was observed at 26/0710Z in
conjunction with an eruptive filament channel near Region 1353
(N08W49). A full halo CME, first observed in C2 imagery at 26/0712Z,
was also associated with this event.


At around 26/0840Z, signatures from the ACE spacecraft indicated
elevated levels of greater than 10 MeV protons. This increase was
associated with the eruptive filament channel, CME, and C1 flare
mentioned earlier. A greater than 10 MeV proton at geosynchronous
orbit began at 26/1125Z. Max flux for this event, thus far, was 54
pfu at 26/2055Z. This proton event was still in progress when this
report was issued.


Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at predominantly quiet levels on day one (27
November). An increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance
for minor storm conditions is expected on days two and three (28-29
November). These elevated conditions are the result of the combined
effects of a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective
early on day two, and the arrival of today's full halo CME late on
day two or early on day three.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 90/10/01

[link to www.spaceref.com]

ohyeah
aether

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11/26/2011 05:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hugh. 76.

impressive thumbs

thank you

Last Edited by aether on 11/26/2011 05:44 PM
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2011 07:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hmm Solarham says the cme is not earth directed but Spaceweather says it is. Who's right? I think it's the most massive cme I've seen on the simulation.
Also what does the current radiation storm tell us about the cme?
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2011 08:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This model indicates it will miss us
Hugh M Eye

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11/26/2011 08:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hmm Solarham says the cme is not earth directed but Spaceweather says it is. Who's right? I think it's the most massive cme I've seen on the simulation.
Also what does the current radiation storm tell us about the cme?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1414904


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This model indicates it will miss us
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


This should be a good head-to-head test of the two prediction models. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis system (iSWA/NASA) Cygnet Streamer shows arrival at Earth on 11/28 @approx. 15:00 UTC with more than a glancing shot. The new NOAA ENLIL CME SW model shows a near-miss or glancing blow on 11/30. Two very different looking models-we'll have to wait and see.

SEEDS Movie of CME and shock-wave.

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

SOHO C3 image from 10:06 UTC:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

NOAA Proton Event ....WARNING-Persistence -for the next 12 hours!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
spock

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 11/26/2011 08:57 PM
aether

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11/26/2011 08:59 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This should be a good head-to-head test of the two prediction models. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis system (iSWA/NASA) Cygnet Streamer shows arrival at Earth on 11/28 @approx. 15:00 UTC with more than a glancing shot. The new NOAA ENLIL CME SW model shows a near-miss or glancing blow on 11/30. Two very different looking models-we'll have to wait and see.
 Quoting: hugh


nice hugh rockon
Isis7
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11/26/2011 09:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
clappa


Thank you guys, hugh and 76.

Great work!
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2011 11:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Wow! Great info. Thanks Hugh and IWTB. Wow again.
Anonymous Coward
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11/27/2011 12:05 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
thanks for all of the awesome info. 5***** !
Hugh M Eye

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11/27/2011 01:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
UPDATE: USAF's Super secret robot spaceplane X-37b--will its batteries run out or do they have a super secret battery charger? Who knows.


[link to www.space-travel.com]


FLASHBACK: The most powerful proton storm ever recorded-January 20, 2005.


[link to science.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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11/27/2011 04:43 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
GoodMorning all,


have to do some stuff at home today...cya later

:solarwatch:

ps: thx all:hf:
Anonymous Coward
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11/27/2011 05:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hmm Solarham says the cme is not earth directed but Spaceweather says it is. Who's right? I think it's the most massive cme I've seen on the simulation.
Also what does the current radiation storm tell us about the cme?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1414904


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This model indicates it will miss us
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


This should be a good head-to-head test of the two prediction models. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis system (iSWA/NASA) Cygnet Streamer shows arrival at Earth on 11/28 @approx. 15:00 UTC with more than a glancing shot. The new NOAA ENLIL CME SW model shows a near-miss or glancing blow on 11/30. Two very different looking models-we'll have to wait and see.

SEEDS Movie of CME and shock-wave.

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

SOHO C3 image from 10:06 UTC:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

NOAA Proton Event ....WARNING-Persistence -for the next 12 hours!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
spock
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

Seems they have updated this to show the CME hitting earth [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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11/27/2011 05:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This model indicates it will miss us
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


of course it does. can one of the two smart dudes on here tell us in simple terms, what will happen. and can you fearful mice not chime in with dis info, thanx.
Anonymous Coward
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11/27/2011 09:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This model indicates it will miss us
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


of course it does. can one of the two smart dudes on here tell us in simple terms, what will happen. and can you fearful mice not chime in with dis info, thanx.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6064977




okay a majority of the CME was directed to the west and away from Earth, however this full halo event does have a weaker Eastern flank which may still impact Earth within 48 hours

While Earth does not appear to be in the path of the core CME,so it will be a flank impact

:cmenov26:

:latestcmenov2609:


[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]


The partial halo CME associated with the filament eruption
to the west of region 1353. The arrival of the corresponding
ICME at the Earth is expected in the evening of November 28 till
morning of November 29. Configurations of the photospheric
magnetic field and post-eruptive arcade indicate that a
possible magnetic cloud will most probably have left-handed
chirality and will be inclined at around 45 degrees to the
ecliptic plane, with southward interplanetary magnetic field in
the leading part of the cloud. A major geomagnetic storm will
be possible.


Well, kevin has a rly good img of the cme cloud

:expandingcmeClou:
Enlarge
[link to www.solarham.com]
Hugh M Eye

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11/27/2011 09:43 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NOAA issues : Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1840
Issue Time: 2011 Nov 27 0744 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2011 Nov 27 0743 UTC
Valid To: 2011 Nov 27 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Also a 12 hour continuation of proton event persistence:

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 334
Issue Time: 2011 Nov 27 1138 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 333
Valid From: 2011 Nov 26 1120 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2011 Nov 28 0200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Something may be knocking at the door. Don't ya hate when guests arrive early?

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Aother video look at yesyerday's CME from STEREO Ahead(Earth is to the left):

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]
Anonymous Coward
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11/27/2011 10:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi back,



we have a nice farside CME actually....(not earth directed)


[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]




:cmenov27:
latest img STEREO AHEAD:
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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11/27/2011 10:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
bit of a heavy read

The energetic storm particle event of October 20, 1989

[link to umbra.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to www.am.ub.es]

enjoy
learner
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11/27/2011 10:49 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
more on magfields:

this link geomag.usgs.gov/intro.php leads to a 2008 .pdf titled "Magnetic monitoring of Earth and space". It goes into mag-sensor instrumentation, measurement history and shows a few study results.

i took a screen shot of one page in particular. The image can be found here : [link to www.bigupload.com]

it shows the daily variation in magfield strength (H component actually) from 5 different locations. Notice the largest change happens at equatorial latitudes...

i wish they (these data) had been plotted according to a zero time base rather than normalized to 'local time'. and further that a proper amplitude scale were included: from this graph, it looks as if the field strength at the equator more than quadruples daily.

i found the previous while locking into the nature of Sol's magfield. This article [link to science.nasa.gov] states that large proton storms happen (within minutes it turns out) after earth directed flares happen while the earth happens to be sitting in one of the sun's magfield spokes.

this article [link to www-istp.gsfc.nasa.gov] explains the shape of the spokes in very simple terms.

haven't found it yet, but i'm looking for data that describes the rate of rotation of these magfield spokes and possibly some measurement of their current location.

it seems to me that if we knew when the earth was and was not inside one of these spokes, we'd be able to predict geomag responces to flares and CMEs better, no?

more later...

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