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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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12/03/2011 10:00 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
sry mistake...have to reupload it
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76




[link to www.youtube.com]
learner
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12/03/2011 10:04 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
nice link Hugh.

from further down the chain.

quoting from [link to sungrazer.nrl.navy.mil]

"1540UT: This is a good time to add in notes of caution about this object as I don't want this to turn into some "Elenin-like" event whereby folks get whipped up into a frenzy about an object that ultimately does not perform. So here it is: we only have a few rather mediocre observations of this comet, it is still very faint (mag 15), and is already a difficult object to observe due to its location in space. Several possibilities exist now:
1. It could be a huge bright Kreutz, like the "great" comets of the 1880's, or Ikeya-Seki in 1965
2. It could just be a nice bright Kreutz like some of the ones we've seen over the past couple of years in SOHO and STEREO
3. It could be a somewhat large but not altogether enormously bright Kreutz like Comet White in 1945
4. It could be too fragile and disintegrate before it reaches out cameras
If I had to guess, I'd say somewhere between #1 and #2 is what we'll get -- a pretty big, bright Kreutz with a nice bright tail. I base this prediction entirely on speculation and hope. "

this will be a good time to watch solar dynamics carefully and see if Sol reacts to the impact the way it did a coupla months ago.

indecently, i heard "around" that some folks are expecting the sun to act up a bunch come mid December: we shall see.
learner
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12/03/2011 10:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
and finally, geofield summery:

at least according to the HAARP sensors, the geofield is still in a 'wonky' state and as far as i can tell: there are no obvious causes.

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

you can see some reflection of this in the Russian data:

starting roughly on the 20th [link to forecast.izmiran.rssi.ru]


when i have my data sources lined up properly, i should be able to creaet a composite 'image' or planetary EEG if you will.

then like the pyschs do with human EEGs, we attempt to correlate....
Anonymous Coward
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12/03/2011 10:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
nice link Hugh.

from further down the chain.

quoting from [link to sungrazer.nrl.navy.mil]

"1540UT: This is a good time to add in notes of caution about this object as I don't want this to turn into some "Elenin-like" event whereby folks get whipped up into a frenzy about an object that ultimately does not perform. So here it is: we only have a few rather mediocre observations of this comet, it is still very faint (mag 15), and is already a difficult object to observe due to its location in space. Several possibilities exist now:
1. It could be a huge bright Kreutz, like the "great" comets of the 1880's, or Ikeya-Seki in 1965
2. It could just be a nice bright Kreutz like some of the ones we've seen over the past couple of years in SOHO and STEREO
3. It could be a somewhat large but not altogether enormously bright Kreutz like Comet White in 1945
4. It could be too fragile and disintegrate before it reaches out cameras
If I had to guess, I'd say somewhere between #1 and #2 is what we'll get -- a pretty big, bright Kreutz with a nice bright tail. I base this prediction entirely on speculation and hope. "

this will be a good time to watch solar dynamics carefully and see if Sol reacts to the impact the way it did a coupla months ago.

indecently, i heard "around" that some folks are expecting the sun to act up a bunch come mid December: we shall see.
 Quoting: learner 6453594




well, do it learner sounds great:robonautweight:
Anonymous Coward
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12/03/2011 11:30 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I asked DrStrong about the magnetosphere disturbance last night and this was his reply:

"The z compenent of the solar wind switched polarity (twice) but there seemed no response from either the aural zone or the Kp index. So I assume it was that western CME that I mentioned a couple of days ago that did indeed brush by us and all the other factors made it have minimal geoeffectiveness."
Anonymous Coward
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12/03/2011 11:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I asked DrStrong about the magnetosphere disturbance last night and this was his reply:

"The z compenent of the solar wind switched polarity (twice) but there seemed no response from either the aural zone or the Kp index. So I assume it was that western CME that I mentioned a couple of days ago that did indeed brush by us and all the other factors made it have minimal geoeffectiveness."
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5212000


well, drStrong...

yep, i guess he should know about the coronal hole
Anonymous Coward
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12/03/2011 11:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
and this from spaceweather:

"During the early hours of Dec. 3rd, the IMF tipped south, partially cancelling Earth's north-pointing magnetic field; solar wind poured through the breach to fuel the display. NOAA forecasters estimate a 14% chance of similar events tonight."
Anonymous Coward
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12/03/2011 11:48 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
and this from spaceweather:

"During the early hours of Dec. 3rd, the IMF tipped south, partially cancelling Earth's north-pointing magnetic field; solar wind poured through the breach to fuel the display. NOAA forecasters estimate a 14% chance of similar events tonight."
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5212000


yep, matchs absolutley with the earth facing coronal hole past days ago
Hugh M Eye

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12/03/2011 01:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
sometimes i really hate looking for specific stuff onna web.

i am trying to find web sites (preferably three: each getting data from a different location on the planet) that provide geomagnetic data in a useful form. by usefull i mean : includes all three vector components (x,y,z or h,d,z) and provided in a list form.

i found one site : [link to omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov] but i don't know the actual location of the sensor(s).

i checked the list provided in this thread without success.

so i ask u guyz: got any links to data sites that provide the magnetometer data in (mostly) real time?
 Quoting: learner 6453594

Hi, learner, here's some links to global geophysical data & magnetograms. You may have to make use of google translate for some of them.

[link to www.ises-spaceweather.org]

Space Weather Canada-check the links on the righthand side of page:

[link to www.spaceweather.ca]

Australia:

[link to www.ips.gov.au]

Russia:

[link to ipg.geospace.ru]

Norway:

[link to flux.phys.uit.no]
Hugh M Eye

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12/03/2011 01:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
leaner,
Here's another link for INTERMAGNET-the International Real-Time Magnetic Observatory Network. I think this may be the one you're looking for.

[link to kogma.nict.go.jp]
Hugh M Eye

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12/03/2011 02:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Several CMEs from the far-side today. I believe we're seeing that snake-like filament unraveling.
:filerupt1203a:
:filerupt1203b:
:cor3-1203:

None of these are Earth-directed.
Hugh M Eye

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12/03/2011 02:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
sry mistake...have to reupload it
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76




[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76

Howdy, IWTB! Great catch on that flare. I had noticed that two active regions on the far-side southern hemisphere were soon coming our way. More activity from the southern hemisphere is a signal that solar-max is getting nearer.
Anonymous Coward
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12/03/2011 02:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Several CMEs from the far-side today. I believe we're seeing that snake-like filament unraveling.
:filerupt1203a:
:filerupt1203b:
:cor3-1203:

None of these are Earth-directed.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye



Yep, the filaments but one of this cme produced by a back side flare

:cmeflarebackside:
Images from STEREO shows the effects of the large solar flare (circled) and the CME(Stereo A C2)


If you check now SDO sun seems very active (filaments)spewing in all directions :P

Western, east and north region...insane
Hugh M Eye

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12/03/2011 03:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SEEDS movie of one of three partial halo CMEs today:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

More can be found here:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]
Anonymous Coward
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12/03/2011 04:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Filaments today

Fulldisc:
[link to ceastronomy.org]

[link to ceastronomy.org]


CloseUP:

[link to ceastronomy.org]

[link to ceastronomy.org]
Hugh M Eye

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12/03/2011 06:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76

The hook-shaped filament just north of 1361 has blasted off. Another more diffuse filament further north soon followed. I haven't seen any sign of an Earth-facing CME though. In the film loop from Big Bear you can also see region 1365 sparking a few flares. This region bears watching closely.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
Hugh M Eye

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12/03/2011 06:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solar wind speed increasing to 460 km/sec:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES data suggests another wave of disturbances are coming in.

Electron Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Boulder K index increased to 3:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

No NOAA alerts have been issued yet. Keep an eye on the NICT simulation.

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
Anonymous Coward
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12/03/2011 06:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solar wind speed increasing to 460 km/sec:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES data suggests another wave of disturbances are coming in.

Electron Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Boulder K index increased to 3:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

No NOAA alerts have been issued yet. Keep an eye on the NICT simulation.

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Well Hugh i wish i could...need a bit sleep

cya tomorrow dont keep up your good work

good night
Hugh M Eye

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12/03/2011 07:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solar wind speed increasing to 460 km/sec:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES data suggests another wave of disturbances are coming in.

Electron Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Boulder K index increased to 3:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

No NOAA alerts have been issued yet. Keep an eye on the NICT simulation.

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


K Index at Ny Alesund is at 6-Storm level

K Index at Tromso is at 5-storm level:

[link to flux.phys.uit.no]

Magnetometer at Kiruna, Sweden is going wild:

[link to www.solarham.com]

This may be much more intense than yesterday's geo-magnetic disturbance.
Anonymous Coward
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12/03/2011 07:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What's up with all these disturbances?

No CME's or flares, right?
aether

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12/03/2011 07:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What's up with all these disturbances?

No CME's or flares, right?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5212000


is that just the holes hugh?
Hugh M Eye

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12/03/2011 08:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What's up with all these disturbances?

No CME's or flares, right?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5212000


What's up with all these disturbances?

No CME's or flares, right?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5212000


is that just the holes hugh?
 Quoting: aether

Officially it's due to the solar wind stream from the southern polar coronal hole. Seems to be geo-effective mostly at the Earth's polar regions. I personally think some eddies or secondary shocks from some of the many CMEs of the past 10 days have added to it. The sun has been throwing off a great number of filaments with very little flaring activity.

The solar wind speed is still increasing-near 470 km/sec.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The GOES plots seem to be rebounding so it may be over; or maybe we'll see several bumps throughout the evening.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Nothing to worry about unless the Kp Index reaches more than 5-Geo-storm level. Right now it's only 2-quiet.

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 12/03/2011 08:15 PM
aether

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12/03/2011 08:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What's up with all these disturbances?

No CME's or flares, right?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5212000


What's up with all these disturbances?

No CME's or flares, right?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5212000


is that just the holes hugh?
 Quoting: aether

Officially it's due to the solar wind stream from the southern polar coronal hole. Seems to be geo-effective mostly at the Earth's polar regions. I personally think some eddies or secondary shocks from some of the many CMEs of the past 10 days have added to it. The sun has been throwing off a great number of filaments with very little flaring activity.

The solar wind speed is still increasing-near 470 km/sec.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The GOES plots seem to be rebounding so it may be over; or maybe we'll see several bumps throughout the evening.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Nothing to worry about unless the Kp Index reaches more than 5-Geo-storm level. Right now it's only 2-quiet.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


thanks hugh , now i got visuals
feels like more than one hole, they take in energy, which is now observed (i`ll find link) which i believe is phrased as the collapsing plasma filaments but what i am getting is they radiate pro rata to their intake
so if we got a lot of plasma going down the holes we will be experiencing greater radiation coming out
aether

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12/03/2011 08:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)


6.03 onward hugh, have a look at that if you have not
aether

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12/03/2011 08:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
thanks hugh , now i got visuals
feels like more than one hole, they take in energy, which is now observed (i`ll find link) which i believe is phrased as the collapsing plasma filaments but what i am getting is they radiate pro rata to their intake
so if we got a lot of plasma going down the holes we will be experiencing greater radiation coming out
 Quoting: aether


yes is defiantly caused by plasma intake into the holes and the radiated energy coming out feels denser and fast
yes high velocity
aether

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12/03/2011 08:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
thanks hugh , now i got visuals
feels like more than one hole, they take in energy, which is now observed (i`ll find link) which i believe is phrased as the collapsing plasma filaments but what i am getting is they radiate pro rata to their intake
so if we got a lot of plasma going down the holes we will be experiencing greater radiation coming out
 Quoting: aether


yes is defiantly caused by plasma intake into the holes and the radiated energy coming out feels denser and fast
yes high velocity
 Quoting: aether


but i don`t know what information (effect) is within this type of radiation
we will see
Hugh M Eye

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12/03/2011 08:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Look at amazingly rapid growth of active region 1365 over the past 48 hours. Late on Dec 1 it began as two barely visible dots.
:dec1:

24 hours later on Dec. 2 it's grown to a small group of spots.
:dec2:

And presently is still growing in size.
:dec3:

These fast-sprouting regions may eventually produce strong flares. Note: the larger region 1362 has remained relatively stable, though we may see some magnetic interaction between the two due their proximity to each other.
aether

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12/03/2011 08:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Look at amazingly rapid growth of active region 1365 over the past 48 hours. Late on Dec 1 it began as two barely visible dots.
:dec1:

24 hours later on Dec. 2 it's grown to a small group of spots.
:dec2:

And presently is still growing in size.
:dec3:

These fast-sprouting regions may eventually produce strong flares. Note: the larger region 1362 has remained relatively stable, though we may see some magnetic interaction between the two due their proximity to each other.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


you got hugh it thumbs

Last Edited by aether on 12/03/2011 08:56 PM
Hugh M Eye

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12/03/2011 09:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
thanks hugh , now i got visuals
feels like more than one hole, they take in energy, which is now observed (i`ll find link) which i believe is phrased as the collapsing plasma filaments but what i am getting is they radiate pro rata to their intake
so if we got a lot of plasma going down the holes we will be experiencing greater radiation coming out
 Quoting: aether


yes is defiantly caused by plasma intake into the holes and the radiated energy coming out feels denser and fast
yes high velocity
 Quoting: aether

Coronal Holes are not what being described in that video. The solar wind comes out of coronal holes at a much higher speed than from the rest of the corona because the magnetic field lines go out into space. Usually the MF lines are looped around active regions, but gaps in the corona allow the field lines to accelerate particles away from the sun; making our solar wind stronger and gustier at earth.

[link to www.exploratorium.edu]

[link to www.daviddarling.info]

Geo-magnetic disturbances from coronal holes are usually minor compared to CMEs. But depending on the polarity of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field we sometimes see geo-storms and satellites could be affected. I notice the K-Index nudged back up to 3 (quiet) and the electron flux is diving again.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES magnetometer is also flagging again, so it's a bumpy night in space.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This is a very minor disturbance. I over-reacted at first because Norway and Sweden were at STORM levels; but so far nothing major below polar latitudes.
Anonymous Coward
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12/03/2011 09:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What a great read. Thanks Hugh for the links and I'm caught up a little more.

Thanks Aether for the info and videos and IWTB and all you guys.

The medicine man told me this stuff would happen many years ago. I was also told we make it through.

Oh I still need some rest.

What do you say aether?

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