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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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12/11/2011 03:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thx Hugh!

but its the work from us all together


i will upload the Intro file, everyone from this team here can use it then if she or he wants
Nacht im Walde

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12/11/2011 04:15 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello, Nacht, I'm sorry to have to correct you, friend, but the Ap Index does not measure the sun's magnetic field. It's a measurement of variations in Earth's magnetic field--sort of a planetary-wide Kp index. As you probably know the Kp Index is localized and varies from station to station. Of course it's very much influenced by the solar wind, CMEs, etc.

I wouldn't put much stock into that Russian Cosmic Ray chart. If you go back in this thread to Nov. 21 or 22 there was a whole "panic" over this cosmic ray variation spike--it was "the biggest in 60 years!"-it was off the charts. Well look at it now--the giant spike of Nov. 21 isn't there anymore.
[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]
mewhat unpredictable, which is why it's so exciting to observe.

 Quoting: Hugh M Eye



thanks Hugh for your elaborate response. I am just a bit confused because I read this definition of the Ap index as well:

The Sun’s magnetic field extends far out into space. It not only surrounds Earth, it also extends well beyond Pluto. The more powerful the Sun’s magnetic field, the more it alters the Earth’s geomagnetic field. The Ap index is measure of this alteration. The Ap index measurements began in the 1930’s. The chart that follows shows the Ap index beginning in 2000 through most of 2010. The peak in the 2003 -2004 time frame is Cycle 23. The Solar activity was high during that time, reaching an Ap index of 35 at its peak. In October 2005, the Ap Index dropped significantly and has remained very low since then.

[link to cbdakota.wordpress.com]

And it does make sense to say if the geomagnetic activity on earth is weaker that the sun`s activity would be lower as well. Doesn`t a lower activity imply also a weaker magnetic field of the sun? Maybe that`s what I got wrong.


I remember the day with all the hype form the Moscow Neutron Monitor station as well. But I have to diagree with you in that I don`t think that it was "only" an anomaly. There is a clear upward trend from this day onward. It is even better visible here:

[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

If the trend would have been ongoing it should still be somewhere around -10 compared to the -2 where it is now. (note that it slowly increased in one month from -3 to-2 on the hourly chart)

This almost certainly has to be related with the waning activity on the sun atm. Again, thanks for correcting me.
We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are. - Anais Nin
Hugh M Eye

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12/11/2011 05:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello, Nacht, I'm sorry to have to correct you, friend, but the Ap Index does not measure the sun's magnetic field. It's a measurement of variations in Earth's magnetic field--sort of a planetary-wide Kp index. As you probably know the Kp Index is localized and varies from station to station. Of course it's very much influenced by the solar wind, CMEs, etc.

I wouldn't put much stock into that Russian Cosmic Ray chart. If you go back in this thread to Nov. 21 or 22 there was a whole "panic" over this cosmic ray variation spike--it was "the biggest in 60 years!"-it was off the charts. Well look at it now--the giant spike of Nov. 21 isn't there anymore.
[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]
mewhat unpredictable, which is why it's so exciting to observe.

 Quoting: Hugh M Eye



thanks Hugh for your elaborate response. I am just a bit confused because I read this definition of the Ap index as well:

The Sun’s magnetic field extends far out into space. It not only surrounds Earth, it also extends well beyond Pluto. The more powerful the Sun’s magnetic field, the more it alters the Earth’s geomagnetic field. The Ap index is measure of this alteration. The Ap index measurements began in the 1930’s. The chart that follows shows the Ap index beginning in 2000 through most of 2010. The peak in the 2003 -2004 time frame is Cycle 23. The Solar activity was high during that time, reaching an Ap index of 35 at its peak. In October 2005, the Ap Index dropped significantly and has remained very low since then.

[link to cbdakota.wordpress.com]

And it does make sense to say if the geomagnetic activity on earth is weaker that the sun`s activity would be lower as well. Doesn`t a lower activity imply also a weaker magnetic field of the sun? Maybe that`s what I got wrong.


I remember the day with all the hype form the Moscow Neutron Monitor station as well. But I have to diagree with you in that I don`t think that it was "only" an anomaly. There is a clear upward trend from this day onward. It is even better visible here:

[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

If the trend would have been ongoing it should still be somewhere around -10 compared to the -2 where it is now. (note that it slowly increased in one month from -3 to-2 on the hourly chart)

This almost certainly has to be related with the waning activity on the sun atm. Again, thanks for correcting me.
 Quoting: Nacht im Walde


Hey, I'm no expert in this field. Everything I know about sun-Earth geomagnetic relationships and cosmic rays I've learned on this thread or research inspired by this thread (thank you, NINzrez!). The Ap index is a more long-range indicator of solar-influenced geomagnetic activity. In general it should rise with higher solar activity, but many other factors are involved on a daily, weekly, short-term basis. What if 90% of the X-flares happen on the far side? They'd have little effect on Earth therefore little effect on the Ap Index. Solar events like large CMEs only effect our magnetosphere if they hit us. This doesn't mean a lack of solar activity, just weak Earth-directed effects. Over time this should all even out and when we look back at the figures a couple of years from now we'll have a better grasp of what happened. As I've noted before, most of these strong flares and big CMEs have not been facing Earth.

RE: Cosmic Rays....Until someone can explain to me what the hell the Russian graph shows, I won't put too much stock in it. It shows a percentage variance over time of 1 to minus 8. What does that mean ? VARIATION to what? Yesterday's graph or some arbitrary mean of "normal" cosmic rays. Nothing on that site explains their graph. Neutrons must be measured from many stations to have any meaning. Cosmic rays are very scattered and there is no uniform flow to measure. Whenever the solar wind slows down more cosmic rays are allowed to interact with Earth. Again we may see trends over the course of a solar cycle or a half-cycle, but these daily or weekly measurements tell us very little IMO. In any case I prefer to trust the South Pole Neutron Monitor.

Thanks for the link to the climate article. I agree the sun's magnetosphere goes out to where the Voyagers 1&2 are exploring and measuring the solar wind-far beyond Pluto's orbit. The solar wind here and out there is gusty and clumpy. It's effects on Earth have a lot to do with the Parker spiral as well as the N-S directional electromagnetic charge of the ion stream. What we can measure from Earth (K-index, Ap Index, HAARP, etc) is only local weather effects.
Hugh M Eye

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12/11/2011 05:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hugh M Eye

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12/11/2011 06:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
After reviewing the data I've come to the conclusion that 2 CMEs are both Earth-directed. The second one (at approx. 10:00UTC) seemed to be much stronger and will probably merge with the earlier one. Screw the experts-I'm calling for intense auroras Tues. night somewhere.
In the STEREO A Cor 2 images you can see the first CME appear as an outer shell or shockwave in front of the second, more violent CME. These images were taken 45 mins. apart.

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO B image (30 mins after that) also shows two separate shocks:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

We can already see a shockwave entering the view of the Behind HI1 image:


[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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12/11/2011 07:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ELECTRIC UNIVERSE UPDATE: I received this email today......


THUNDERBOLTS PROJECT
Update
December 11, 2011



ELECTRIC UNIVERSE—THE EMERGING VANGUARD

Call it progress by surprise. It's now clear that many more exceptional scholars and scientists have been following our work than anyone had realized. That's the explanation for a fact we've mentioned before but not attempted to explain: that graduate education levels of visitors to the Thunderbolts site exceed those of almost any other science site you'll find on the Internet.

Our liaison with the best experts in the science, including individuals responsible for essential aspects of the space program, is paying off. For obvious reasons we keep these communications confidential, but here are two names we can mention now because they will be SPEAKERS at the upcoming Las Vegas conference:

James Ryder, former head of the Lockheed Martin solar physics laboratory (foremost laboratory of its type), speaking on the remarkable surprises of the IBEX mission;

Montgomery ("Monty") Childs, lead engineer for the Canadian National Research Council's rocket design to measure Oxygen in the upper atmosphere, now proposing a definitive experiment to test the electric sun hypothesis.

(More information on both presentations will be forthcoming this coming week.)

Also worth mentioning is the fact that we have attracted to our conference the most impressive scientists of the Natural Philosophy Alliance. At the same time, we are attracting large numbers of lay people who simply want to know. The Electric Universe connects with people at the level of their deepest personal interests. Things that always seemed obscure suddenly make sense. No message has been stated to us more frequently by the newly inspired crowd around us. Remote events in the cosmos, regional events in the solar system, our own planetary history, the electricity of life, quantum mysteries, and the evolution of human consciousness all find their place on a more unified conceptual landscape. The universe is not just a collection of fragments for specialized investigation and mathematical abstractions. Now, wherever we look in the cosmos, the electric force is active, unifying the fragments and achieving feats that were simply off the grid of "settled science" just a
few years ago.

Details on the Las Vegas Conference, Jan 6-8, 2012:
www.thunderbolts.info/eu2012

Video preview of the conference:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1HTmd6Sv148

Listen to Wal Thornhill’s interview with Liam Sheff on the Robert Scott Bell Show
[link to www.thunderbolts.info]
____________________________________
Thought I would share...are you out there Aether & Finley?
spocklflash
Nacht im Walde

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12/12/2011 04:46 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ELECTRIC UNIVERSE UPDATE: I received this email today......


THUNDERBOLTS PROJECT
Update
December 11, 2011


ELECTRIC UNIVERSE—THE EMERGING VANGUARD

 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


got it as well. I would just love to attend!

this is from their last conference:


We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are. - Anais Nin
Anonymous Coward
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12/12/2011 07:09 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Old SOL is really in a batting slump. Look at this 27 rotation chart. Two rotations ago we had 10 M1 or stronger flares, and the last rotation only 4. We've had no M or X flares since Nov. 15th. This level of activity is puzzling to me since we've had increase in the number of sunspots-including a number of very large active regions.

[link to translate.google.de]

Here's a still from yesterday's picturesque C-flare from 1374:
:shroom1209:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Two things I`ve been noticing as well:

Sunspots as of late are very quiet (but there are more filaments). I am no expert on this, but would anybody find it reasonable to explain this with the Ap index at a record low at the moment?

:apindex10:

With the sun having a weak magnetic field (what the Ap index measures) the plasma on the photosphere might be able to more easily "drift" into the corona- making more filaments appear (this is a guess on my side).

This might in turn also make sunspots less active.


The other significant anomaly is the already pointed out upward trend in cosmic rays which should not be happening this far into solar max. The explanation again would be the decreasing strength of sun`s magnetic field (as this allows more cosmic rays to reach earth). There has been a major shift in November (note that this correlates very well with the last 2 dots on the chart above)

:craystep:
 Quoting: Nacht im Walde

Hello, Nacht, I'm sorry to have to correct you, friend, but the Ap Index does not measure the sun's magnetic field. It's a measurement of variations in Earth's magnetic field--sort of a planetary-wide Kp index. As you probably know the Kp Index is localized and varies from station to station. Of course it's very much influenced by the solar wind, CMEs, etc.
[link to www.nwra.com]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I wouldn't put much stock into that Russian Cosmic Ray chart. If you go back in this thread to Nov. 21 or 22 there was a whole "panic" over this cosmic ray variation spike--it was "the biggest in 60 years!"-it was off the charts. Well look at it now--the giant spike of Nov. 21 isn't there anymore.
[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

If you're interested in cosmic rays the best site is the ICETOP South Pole Neutron Monitor. If you scroll down you'll see nothing noteworthy in the neutron counts.
[link to www.bartol.udel.edu]

[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]

We must realize solar winds and solar coronal weather are much like our weather--one day is calm and sunny, then BAM!-you have a devastating tornado. It's somewhat unpredictable, which is why it's so exciting to observe.
You're correct about the increase in filaments. To my knowledge, there's a general lack of understanding among heliophysicist eggheads as to how these are formed. More research must be gathered in this area. They can cause bigger CMEs than solar flares sometimes and again they are unpredictable.

[link to solar.physics.montana.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I wouldn't put much stock into that Russian Cosmic Ray chart. If you go back in this thread to Nov. 21 or 22 there was a whole "panic" over this cosmic ray variation spike--it was "the biggest in 60 years!"-it was off the charts. Well look at it now--the giant spike of Nov. 21 isn't there anymore.
[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]


nope, it's still there, if you choose to view "days"
Anonymous Coward
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12/12/2011 08:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
GoodMorning all


new Solar Watch



[link to www.youtube.com]
Anonymous Coward
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12/12/2011 10:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Goddard Year In Review: Heliophysics
12.12.11

These stories, images and videos represent some of the 2011 highlights in the field of heliophysics, the study of the sun and its interactions with Earth and other bodies. All the content showcased here bears some connection to NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center...

rly awesome vid's

ReadMore:
[link to www.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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12/12/2011 11:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The first realtime "playback" image from STEREO/SECCHI HI-1B of Comet Lovejoy



[link to www.youtube.com]
Hugh M Eye

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12/12/2011 11:49 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Goddard Year In Review: Heliophysics
12.12.11

These stories, images and videos represent some of the 2011 highlights in the field of heliophysics, the study of the sun and its interactions with Earth and other bodies. All the content showcased here bears some connection to NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center...

rly awesome vid's

ReadMore:
[link to www.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


G'day, IWTB, excellent find! Watch vids in full screen-WOW. Don't forget Comet Lovejoy coming Wednesday.

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
RTS REDUX

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12/12/2011 12:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The first realtime "playback" image from STEREO/SECCHI HI-1B of Comet Lovejoy



[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


great video..I just added this to my Comet thread.. thanks!

Last Edited by RTS REDUX on 12/12/2011 12:30 PM
"If one understands that socialism is not a share-the-wealth programme, but is in reality a method to consolidate and control the wealth, then the seeming paradox of super-rich men promoting socialism becomes no paradox at all. Instead, it becomes logical, even the perfect tool of power-seeking megalomaniacs.

Communism or more accurately, socialism, is not a movement of the downtrodden masses, but of the economic elite."

Gary Allen

NONE DARE CALL IT CONSPIRACY
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Hitler was a leftist

[link to constitutionalistnc.tripod.com]
Anonymous Coward
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12/12/2011 12:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well thx dudes!!!


ura
Hugh M Eye

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12/12/2011 10:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SIDC daily report only mentions one CME yesterday.


:Issued: 2011 Dec 12 1304 UTC
:Product: documentation at [link to www.sidc.be]
#------------------------------------------------------------​--------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------​--------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 11212
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Dec 2011, 1256UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 12 Dec 2011 until 14 Dec 2011)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Dec 2011 10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Dec 2011 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Dec 2011 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 004
COMMENT: The solar background GOES X-ray flux is just below C-level,
which means that C-flares are probable during the next 24 hours. A large
filament eruption took place in the NE quadrant of th solar disk on Dec
11, around 6:00UT. Coronagraphic beacon data from STEREO show that the
associated CME possibly has a component directed to the Earth. However,
given the weak velocity of 300 km/s we do not expect that a geomagnetic
storm will be related to this event. We expect quiet geomagnetic
conditions for the next 48 hours.


That's an extremely slow CME! I thought a second CME occurred several hours after the first. I also thought the second one looked more powerful and more Earth-directed. Oh, well, here's two SEEDS movies--one from each event.

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

The latest Cygnet Streamer model only shows one CME but possibly they've merged together. It appears to be another "glancing blow". If the two have merged it would tend to be more geo-effective IMO.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 12/12/2011 10:15 PM
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
from spaceweather:

A comet nearly as wide as two football fields (200m) is plunging toward the sun where it will most likely be destroyed in a spectacular light show on Dec. 15/16. Although Comet Lovejoy (C/2011 W3) could become as bright as Jupiter or Venus when it "flames out," the glare of the sun will hide the event from human eyes. Solar observatories in space, however, will have a grand view. Yesterday the brightening comet entered the field of view of NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft.

"You can clearly see the comet heading diagonally through the images," says Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab who prepared the animation. "During the 16-hour sequence, the comet brightens from magnitude +8 to +6.5, approximately."

It will soon grow much brighter. "This comet is a true sungrazer, and will skim approximately 140,000 km (1.2 solar radii) above the solar surface on Dec. 15/16," notes Battams. At such close range, solar heating will almost certainly destroy the icy interloper,creating a cloud of vapor and comet dust that will reflect lots of sunlight. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) will have a particularly good view.

Discovered on Dec. 2nd by amateur astronomer Terry Lovejoy of Australia, the comet is an unusually large member of the Kreutz family. Kreutz sungrazers are fragments of a single giant comet (probably the Great Comet of 1106) that broke apart back in the 12th century. SOHO sees one plunging into the sun every few days, but most are small, no more than 10 meters wide. Comet Lovejoy is at least ten times larger than usual. Stay tuned for updates.
Hugh M Eye

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12/12/2011 10:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's been another far-side CME a few hours ago. STEREO B saw it happen:
:cme1212b:

A brief glimpse from STEREO A (more data gaps):
:cme1212a:

And a SOHO Cor 2 Difference image:
:cme1212soho:
Hugh M Eye

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12/12/2011 11:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
For some reason the Cygnet Streamer has erased the recent CME model. So due to NASA's screw-up I'll post the NOAA Enlil CME model (which I don't care for as it sometimes messes up my browser).

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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12/13/2011 12:00 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Rain-Man

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12/13/2011 12:20 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The first realtime "playback" image from STEREO/SECCHI HI-1B of Comet Lovejoy



[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76



Hugh M Eye

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12/13/2011 02:24 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's been another large filament eruption w/CME on the southwest limb near AR11367. I don't think this one is geo-effective but it's possible. Still waiting for retarded SOHO data (7 hrs. late again!) STEREO A image:
:cme1213:

This short H-Alpha loop shows the fat filament fly off in the SW:
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Two hi-res AIA 304a images from SDO (I can't wait for IWTB76's movie in the morning!):

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Time to sleep, goodnight all.
explosion
aether

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12/13/2011 03:57 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
After reviewing the data I've come to the conclusion that 2 CMEs are both Earth-directed. The second one (at approx. 10:00UTC) seemed to be much stronger and will probably merge with the earlier one. Screw the experts-I'm calling for intense auroras Tues. night somewhere.
In the STEREO A Cor 2 images you can see the first CME appear as an outer shell or shockwave in front of the second, more violent CME. These images were taken 45 mins. apart.

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO B image (30 mins after that) also shows two separate shocks:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

We can already see a shockwave entering the view of the Behind HI1 image:


[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


bump
Anonymous Coward
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12/13/2011 08:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning....peace.
Anonymous Coward
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12/13/2011 09:55 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi all,



some Update :


Three regions disappeared yesterday which leaves only 4 groups visible

:sunspotstoday:
Enlarge:
[link to www.solarham.com]


The largest and most interesting is region 1374
[link to www.solarham.com]


Even though, it decreased in size over the last 24 hours to 150 millionths, its magnetic complexity increased to a Beta-Gamma

Only 2 small C1 class solar flares took place yesterday, only one from region 1374. Further C class flares are expected and the possibility of a M class cannot be totally ruled out



:magneticfieldspo:
Image from SDO shows the magnetic footprint of region 137 with the Beta-Gamma area circled



We have also another filament eruption on the south west

Watch Helioviewer Movie Fulldisc:


[link to helioviewer.org]


More on this later
Anonymous Coward
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12/13/2011 10:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SOHO Cor 2 imagery-which is the main resource for CME modeling- has been dark for 33 HOURS!!! WTF? This CME may hit us in the nuts with NASA's pants down again. After they just held another doom-filled space weather conference last week. As I've said too many times, if a Carrington-type event happens it will be pure serendipity if NASA's monitoring network is working as designed. Keep in mind the Carrington Event plasma blast hit Earth in less than 18 hours! If NASA's on holiday or hung-over or holding a fancy luncheon we'll never know what hit us--and all of this solar monitoring was a huge waste of time and money.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I must apologize to NASA, their webmaster at SOHO public website must have the day off, but at least the military has SOHO data ( I feel safer now).
[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]

:cmediff1211:
Above image timestamp 06:36. Below is much later at 15:54. There are still big gaps in data.
:cme1211c3:

SEEDS has a CME movie based on the STEREO Ahead data:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

It looks to me that this may become geo-effective although most of the mass is blasted above the ecliptic.
explosionahhh
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


SIDC's latest alert notes the first filament eruption at 06:00UTC and predicts it will NOT be geo-effective.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

We' ll know for sure Tues. or Wed.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


"Keep in mind the Carrington Event plasma blast hit Earth in less than 18 hours!"

Carrington observed a flare and 18 hours later something hit the Earth. Nothing other than speculation to be said beyond that, unfortunately.
No evidence that the observed was connected to the event.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi all,



some Update :


Three regions disappeared yesterday which leaves only 4 groups visible

:sunspotstoday:
Enlarge:
[link to www.solarham.com]


The largest and most interesting is region 1374
[link to www.solarham.com]


Even though, it decreased in size over the last 24 hours to 150 millionths, its magnetic complexity increased to a Beta-Gamma

Only 2 small C1 class solar flares took place yesterday, only one from region 1374. Further C class flares are expected and the possibility of a M class cannot be totally ruled out



:magneticfieldspo:
Image from SDO shows the magnetic footprint of region 137 with the Beta-Gamma area circled



We have also another filament eruption on the south west

Watch Helioviewer Movie Fulldisc:


[link to helioviewer.org]


More on this later
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76




and a close Up Filament eruption...:

right before the lift off u can see a small flare from region 1367 which rotates out of view now

[link to helioviewer.org]
Anonymous Coward
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12/13/2011 12:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
thanks for the updates guys
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
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12/13/2011 12:59 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
December's Geminid Meteor Shower Peaks Tonight
The Geminid meteor shower peaks tonight (Dec. 13), but interested skywatchers might have to battle chilly temperatures and bright moonlight.

The annual Geminids shower is usually one of the most spectacular light shows of the year, but this time around, the vivid and nearly full moon is threatening to take center stage instead
[link to www.space.com]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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Germany
12/13/2011 01:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
December's Geminid Meteor Shower Peaks Tonight
The Geminid meteor shower peaks tonight (Dec. 13), but interested skywatchers might have to battle chilly temperatures and bright moonlight.

The annual Geminids shower is usually one of the most spectacular light shows of the year, but this time around, the vivid and nearly full moon is threatening to take center stage instead
[link to www.space.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Holy shit....


NINZrez!!!!!
:solarwatch:





hugscheerchorus


I cant find words how i missed ya!!!! Plz dont go

yeehaw
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 7057198
United States
12/13/2011 01:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SEEDS Movie of latest CME eruption:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

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