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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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12/12/2011 10:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Goddard Year In Review: Heliophysics
12.12.11

These stories, images and videos represent some of the 2011 highlights in the field of heliophysics, the study of the sun and its interactions with Earth and other bodies. All the content showcased here bears some connection to NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center...

rly awesome vid's

ReadMore:
[link to www.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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12/12/2011 11:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The first realtime "playback" image from STEREO/SECCHI HI-1B of Comet Lovejoy



[link to www.youtube.com]
Hugh M Eye

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12/12/2011 11:49 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Goddard Year In Review: Heliophysics
12.12.11

These stories, images and videos represent some of the 2011 highlights in the field of heliophysics, the study of the sun and its interactions with Earth and other bodies. All the content showcased here bears some connection to NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center...

rly awesome vid's

ReadMore:
[link to www.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


G'day, IWTB, excellent find! Watch vids in full screen-WOW. Don't forget Comet Lovejoy coming Wednesday.

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
RTS REDUX

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12/12/2011 12:04 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The first realtime "playback" image from STEREO/SECCHI HI-1B of Comet Lovejoy



[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


great video..I just added this to my Comet thread.. thanks!

Last Edited by RTS REDUX on 12/12/2011 12:30 PM
Anonymous Coward
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12/12/2011 12:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well thx dudes!!!


ura
Hugh M Eye

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12/12/2011 10:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SIDC daily report only mentions one CME yesterday.


:Issued: 2011 Dec 12 1304 UTC
:Product: documentation at [link to www.sidc.be]
#------------------------------------------------------------​--------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------​--------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 11212
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Dec 2011, 1256UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 12 Dec 2011 until 14 Dec 2011)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Dec 2011 10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Dec 2011 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Dec 2011 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 004
COMMENT: The solar background GOES X-ray flux is just below C-level,
which means that C-flares are probable during the next 24 hours. A large
filament eruption took place in the NE quadrant of th solar disk on Dec
11, around 6:00UT. Coronagraphic beacon data from STEREO show that the
associated CME possibly has a component directed to the Earth. However,
given the weak velocity of 300 km/s we do not expect that a geomagnetic
storm will be related to this event. We expect quiet geomagnetic
conditions for the next 48 hours.


That's an extremely slow CME! I thought a second CME occurred several hours after the first. I also thought the second one looked more powerful and more Earth-directed. Oh, well, here's two SEEDS movies--one from each event.

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

The latest Cygnet Streamer model only shows one CME but possibly they've merged together. It appears to be another "glancing blow". If the two have merged it would tend to be more geo-effective IMO.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 12/12/2011 10:15 PM
Anonymous Coward
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12/12/2011 10:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
from spaceweather:

A comet nearly as wide as two football fields (200m) is plunging toward the sun where it will most likely be destroyed in a spectacular light show on Dec. 15/16. Although Comet Lovejoy (C/2011 W3) could become as bright as Jupiter or Venus when it "flames out," the glare of the sun will hide the event from human eyes. Solar observatories in space, however, will have a grand view. Yesterday the brightening comet entered the field of view of NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft.

"You can clearly see the comet heading diagonally through the images," says Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab who prepared the animation. "During the 16-hour sequence, the comet brightens from magnitude +8 to +6.5, approximately."

It will soon grow much brighter. "This comet is a true sungrazer, and will skim approximately 140,000 km (1.2 solar radii) above the solar surface on Dec. 15/16," notes Battams. At such close range, solar heating will almost certainly destroy the icy interloper,creating a cloud of vapor and comet dust that will reflect lots of sunlight. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) will have a particularly good view.

Discovered on Dec. 2nd by amateur astronomer Terry Lovejoy of Australia, the comet is an unusually large member of the Kreutz family. Kreutz sungrazers are fragments of a single giant comet (probably the Great Comet of 1106) that broke apart back in the 12th century. SOHO sees one plunging into the sun every few days, but most are small, no more than 10 meters wide. Comet Lovejoy is at least ten times larger than usual. Stay tuned for updates.
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's been another far-side CME a few hours ago. STEREO B saw it happen:
:cme1212b:

A brief glimpse from STEREO A (more data gaps):
:cme1212a:

And a SOHO Cor 2 Difference image:
:cme1212soho:
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
For some reason the Cygnet Streamer has erased the recent CME model. So due to NASA's screw-up I'll post the NOAA Enlil CME model (which I don't care for as it sometimes messes up my browser).

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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12/13/2011 12:00 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Rain-Man

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12/13/2011 12:20 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The first realtime "playback" image from STEREO/SECCHI HI-1B of Comet Lovejoy



[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76



Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's been another large filament eruption w/CME on the southwest limb near AR11367. I don't think this one is geo-effective but it's possible. Still waiting for retarded SOHO data (7 hrs. late again!) STEREO A image:
:cme1213:

This short H-Alpha loop shows the fat filament fly off in the SW:
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Two hi-res AIA 304a images from SDO (I can't wait for IWTB76's movie in the morning!):

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Time to sleep, goodnight all.
explosion
aether

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12/13/2011 03:57 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
After reviewing the data I've come to the conclusion that 2 CMEs are both Earth-directed. The second one (at approx. 10:00UTC) seemed to be much stronger and will probably merge with the earlier one. Screw the experts-I'm calling for intense auroras Tues. night somewhere.
In the STEREO A Cor 2 images you can see the first CME appear as an outer shell or shockwave in front of the second, more violent CME. These images were taken 45 mins. apart.

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO B image (30 mins after that) also shows two separate shocks:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

We can already see a shockwave entering the view of the Behind HI1 image:


[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


bump
Anonymous Coward
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12/13/2011 08:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning....peace.
Anonymous Coward
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12/13/2011 09:55 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi all,



some Update :


Three regions disappeared yesterday which leaves only 4 groups visible

:sunspotstoday:
Enlarge:
[link to www.solarham.com]


The largest and most interesting is region 1374
[link to www.solarham.com]


Even though, it decreased in size over the last 24 hours to 150 millionths, its magnetic complexity increased to a Beta-Gamma

Only 2 small C1 class solar flares took place yesterday, only one from region 1374. Further C class flares are expected and the possibility of a M class cannot be totally ruled out



:magneticfieldspo:
Image from SDO shows the magnetic footprint of region 137 with the Beta-Gamma area circled



We have also another filament eruption on the south west

Watch Helioviewer Movie Fulldisc:


[link to helioviewer.org]


More on this later
Anonymous Coward
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12/13/2011 10:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SOHO Cor 2 imagery-which is the main resource for CME modeling- has been dark for 33 HOURS!!! WTF? This CME may hit us in the nuts with NASA's pants down again. After they just held another doom-filled space weather conference last week. As I've said too many times, if a Carrington-type event happens it will be pure serendipity if NASA's monitoring network is working as designed. Keep in mind the Carrington Event plasma blast hit Earth in less than 18 hours! If NASA's on holiday or hung-over or holding a fancy luncheon we'll never know what hit us--and all of this solar monitoring was a huge waste of time and money.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I must apologize to NASA, their webmaster at SOHO public website must have the day off, but at least the military has SOHO data ( I feel safer now).
[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]

:cmediff1211:
Above image timestamp 06:36. Below is much later at 15:54. There are still big gaps in data.
:cme1211c3:

SEEDS has a CME movie based on the STEREO Ahead data:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

It looks to me that this may become geo-effective although most of the mass is blasted above the ecliptic.
explosionahhh
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


SIDC's latest alert notes the first filament eruption at 06:00UTC and predicts it will NOT be geo-effective.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

We' ll know for sure Tues. or Wed.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


"Keep in mind the Carrington Event plasma blast hit Earth in less than 18 hours!"

Carrington observed a flare and 18 hours later something hit the Earth. Nothing other than speculation to be said beyond that, unfortunately.
No evidence that the observed was connected to the event.
Anonymous Coward
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12/13/2011 10:21 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi all,



some Update :


Three regions disappeared yesterday which leaves only 4 groups visible

:sunspotstoday:
Enlarge:
[link to www.solarham.com]


The largest and most interesting is region 1374
[link to www.solarham.com]


Even though, it decreased in size over the last 24 hours to 150 millionths, its magnetic complexity increased to a Beta-Gamma

Only 2 small C1 class solar flares took place yesterday, only one from region 1374. Further C class flares are expected and the possibility of a M class cannot be totally ruled out



:magneticfieldspo:
Image from SDO shows the magnetic footprint of region 137 with the Beta-Gamma area circled



We have also another filament eruption on the south west

Watch Helioviewer Movie Fulldisc:


[link to helioviewer.org]


More on this later
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76




and a close Up Filament eruption...:

right before the lift off u can see a small flare from region 1367 which rotates out of view now

[link to helioviewer.org]
Anonymous Coward
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12/13/2011 12:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
thanks for the updates guys
NiNzrez (OP)

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12/13/2011 12:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
December's Geminid Meteor Shower Peaks Tonight
The Geminid meteor shower peaks tonight (Dec. 13), but interested skywatchers might have to battle chilly temperatures and bright moonlight.

The annual Geminids shower is usually one of the most spectacular light shows of the year, but this time around, the vivid and nearly full moon is threatening to take center stage instead
[link to www.space.com]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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12/13/2011 01:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
December's Geminid Meteor Shower Peaks Tonight
The Geminid meteor shower peaks tonight (Dec. 13), but interested skywatchers might have to battle chilly temperatures and bright moonlight.

The annual Geminids shower is usually one of the most spectacular light shows of the year, but this time around, the vivid and nearly full moon is threatening to take center stage instead
[link to www.space.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Holy shit....


NINZrez!!!!!
:solarwatch:





hugscheerchorus


I cant find words how i missed ya!!!! Plz dont go

yeehaw
Hugh M Eye

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12/13/2011 01:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SEEDS Movie of latest CME eruption:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]
Vesper33
Silver Pools of Light

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12/13/2011 01:19 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hell, I think we all have went through NiNzrez withdrawals. Lol. Good to see you back today!
Perfer et Obdura;Dolor hic tibi proderit olim.Fortes Fortuna Iuvat! (Be Patient & Strong; someday this pain will be useful to you. Fortune favors the brave)
Hugh M Eye

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12/13/2011 01:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello, NINzrez! hugsflowerblobr I hope you're ready for an eventful week.

Comet Lovejoy has brightened considerably and is now visible on both STEREO A & B HI1 imager.
A: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

B: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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12/13/2011 01:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Lockheed/Solarsoft geniuses goof up again. The filament eruption which produced the latest CME also produced a "channel flare" which the eggheads wrongly attribute to active region 1367. I think they also missed the main event in their posted visuals. In the first clip you can see the filament begin to stir. In the second clip we see the final stage of filament and the resulting channel flare. Note that there is no flare from 1367 whatsoever. Trust but verify, LOL.

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
drevil
Anonymous Coward
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12/13/2011 03:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Yep, the flare peaks at 08:00z


Another Update:

Three small C1 class solar flares have taken place today all from region 1367


2011/12/13 07:46:00 08:07:00 08:00:00 C1.4 S18W78 ( 1367 )
2011/12/13 14:11:00 14:17:00 14:14:00 C1.1 S19W89 ( 1367 )
2011/12/13 15:02:00 15:32:00 15:16:00 B7.3 S18W89 ( 1367 )
2011/12/13 16:04:00 16:32:00 16:21:00 C1.2 S18W89 ( 1367 )
[link to www.lmsal.com]




Region 1374 as remained quiet today despite the Beta Gamma within the region.

Image from the SDO shows the C1 solar flare (lower right) peaking at 0800z
:CflaresDec13:

and SDO AIA 304
:FlareSDO:


CloseUP Filament eruption and Flare
[link to helioviewer.org]
Anonymous Coward
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12/13/2011 06:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nin you're back. Yeayyyy How are you?
Hugh M Eye

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12/13/2011 06:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Finally some rumbling in the X-ray flux--looks like a small chain of C-flares.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Peaked at C4.8--the strongest flare in a week or more. Maybe the sun's sensing that comet's approach. We may have flaring from more than one region here. The "new" active region in the northeast (which NOAA's been too lazy to number thus far-let's call it 1376/77) seems to be the source of some activity. Possible flare also from 1374 in the south.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

The sun may be waking up to have Comet Lovejoy for breakfast. Will check out possible filament action soon.
5a
Anonymous Coward
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12/13/2011 06:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Finally some rumbling in the X-ray flux--looks like a small chain of C-flares.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Peaked at C4.8--the strongest flare in a week or more. Maybe the sun's sensing that comet's approach. We may have flaring from more than one region here. The "new" active region in the northeast (which NOAA's been too lazy to number thus far-let's call it 1376/77) seems to be the source of some activity. Possible flare also from 1374 in the south.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

The sun may be waking up to have Comet Lovejoy for breakfast. Will check out possible filament action soon.
5a
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


hehe, nice hugh


Yep, dont know why they are so lazy this time...maybe they are not sure if this new region north/east is one or more spots...^^

they should ask us rockon


Latest C4.8 Flare Region 1367

:c4flare:
Hugh M Eye

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12/13/2011 07:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Finally some rumbling in the X-ray flux--looks like a small chain of C-flares.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Peaked at C4.8--the strongest flare in a week or more. Maybe the sun's sensing that comet's approach. We may have flaring from more than one region here. The "new" active region in the northeast (which NOAA's been too lazy to number thus far-let's call it 1376/77) seems to be the source of some activity. Possible flare also from 1374 in the south.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

The sun may be waking up to have Comet Lovejoy for breakfast. Will check out possible filament action soon.
5a
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


hehe, nice hugh


Yep, dont know why they are so lazy this time...maybe they are not sure if this new region north/east is one or more spots...^^

they should ask us rockon


Latest C4.8 Flare Region 1367

:c4flare:
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Thanks, dude, I was just going to post a correction. the peak flare was definitely 1367 (suddenly active at 90 degrees angle from Earth)-the new region is flaring at lower levels. No filament activity found.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
Anonymous Coward
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12/13/2011 07:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello, NINzrez! hugsflowerblobr I hope you're ready for an eventful week.

Comet Lovejoy has brightened considerably and is now visible on both STEREO A & B HI1 imager.
A: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

B: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye




early Geminid fireball recorded on Dec. 11th by a NASA meteor network camera in Tennessee

[link to science.nasa.gov]


The 2011 Geminid Meteor Shower

Dec. 13, 2011: The 2011 Geminid meteor shower peaks on the night of Dec. 13-14, and despite the glare of a nearly-full Moon, it might be a good show.
[link to science.nasa.gov]


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