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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
miabelieves
User ID: 7235261
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12/31/2011 12:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
nice start to the day
looking at the SDO magnetogram images, it looks like some mixing polarity around the 1389 region area
we could be in store for more larger flares today to end 2011

i had a dream last night that we got a X flare from a southern earth directed sunspot region, and it produced a huge CME
 Quoting: NiNzrez


That would be a way to bring in new year...X flare Earth directed. Glad to see you back here and on FB, NIN. Always a lurker to this Thread even if I don't understand more than half the things you guys speak of. I find it exciting. Interesting days we live in!
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 7976466
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12/31/2011 12:12 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Howdy, Folks! Happy new Year!cheers
Solarsoft/SDO movie of the M2.4:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

Wow, we only need 3 more M-flares before midnight (GLP time) to reach the century mark (in NIN's thread title). An X-flare would be nice, too. Back in early November this seemed to me a "slam dunk"; and last week it looked more like an impossibility. The Sun is making up for lost time now.
hiding
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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12/31/2011 12:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the xray flux is rising
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Hiya NINz!

Im uploading a vid soon...there was some outburst right before the first M2.4



Edit:

Boring..^^ Region 1389 again M1.4
:M1.4FlareRegion1:
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


NOAA issued this with the M2 flare

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 523
Issue Time: 2011 Dec 31 1348 UTC


SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2011 Dec 31 1312 UTC
Maximum Time: 2011 Dec 31 1313 UTC
End Time: 2011 Dec 31 1313 UTC
Duration: 1 minutes
Peak Flux: 150 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 141 sfu

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez



SDO AIA Image M1.5 Region 1389

:seconmflarem1.5d:
Enlarge:
[link to i1220.photobucket.com]
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 7976466
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12/31/2011 12:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A 13% chance of X-flare from region 1389. Here's look at the Solar Monitor images in different wavelengths.

[link to www.solarmonitor.org]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
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12/31/2011 12:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A 13% chance of X-flare from region 1389. Here's look at the Solar Monitor images in different wavelengths.

[link to www.solarmonitor.org]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


sunspot region 1389
67% chance of M Flare
69% chance of X Flare
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

chances are looking good for a New Years Eve X Flare!

i just checked, and Earths proximity over sunspot region 1389 for today is almost direct
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 12/31/2011 12:57 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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12/31/2011 01:07 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
check out sunspot region 1386 on the newest SDO movie
looks like we got a CME
waiting on STEREO to update
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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12/31/2011 01:09 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SUDDEN IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE:
Today around 1320 UT, a wave of ionization swept through the high atmosphere over Europe after sunspot AR1389 unleashed another M2-class solar flare. "There was a very clear sudden ionospheric disturbance on my VLF radio instruments," reports Rob Stammes, who sends these data from the Polar Light Center in Lofoten, Norway:


[link to spaceweather.com]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1537859
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12/31/2011 01:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SUDDEN IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE:
Today around 1320 UT, a wave of ionization swept through the high atmosphere over Europe after sunspot AR1389 unleashed another M2-class solar flare. "There was a very clear sudden ionospheric disturbance on my VLF radio instruments," reports Rob Stammes, who sends these data from the Polar Light Center in Lofoten, Norway:


[link to spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


at that time our power went out in southwest ohio and stayed out for four hours.
they are rebuilding a main road about two miles away so it may have been coincidence. any other outages?
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 7976466
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12/31/2011 01:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A 13% chance of X-flare from region 1389. Here's look at the Solar Monitor images in different wavelengths.

[link to www.solarmonitor.org]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


sunspot region 1389
67% chance of M Flare
69% chance of X Flare
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

chances are looking good for a New Years Eve X Flare!

i just checked, and Earths proximity over sunspot region 1389 for today is almost direct
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


That Bradford site says 10%...I guess they changed it.
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
NiNzrez (OP)

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12/31/2011 01:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Everyone have a happy and safe new years eve!
no drinking and driving!! :)

and best of luck for 2012

hf

I can't help but think tonight, how our 1st week in 2011 started with all the birds falling from the sky.
wondering if in this 1st week in 2012 will bring something of the sort
something big that will make us all sit back and say "Wow!"
i guess we will find out soon enough
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Hugh M Eye

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12/31/2011 01:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solarsoft/SDO composite movie of the M1.5:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
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12/31/2011 01:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A 13% chance of X-flare from region 1389. Here's look at the Solar Monitor images in different wavelengths.

[link to www.solarmonitor.org]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


sunspot region 1389
67% chance of M Flare
69% chance of X Flare
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

chances are looking good for a New Years Eve X Flare!

i just checked, and Earths proximity over sunspot region 1389 for today is almost direct
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


That Bradford site says 10%...I guess they changed it.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


they do
on the right it explaines the probality forcast
the program they use scans SDO images each 2 min and their forecast is updated according
its a great site for up to date % risk of flares and from what regions

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 12/31/2011 01:49 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 7976466
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12/31/2011 02:00 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Cerro Tololo Observatory in Chile cartured both M-flares and the C-flare from 1386. You can also see a bump from the 5.3 earthquake in Argentina and some loosening filaments in the NE and SE.

Time-lapse movie:
[link to halpha.nso.edu]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1297814
Germany
12/31/2011 03:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A 13% chance of X-flare from region 1389. Here's look at the Solar Monitor images in different wavelengths.

[link to www.solarmonitor.org]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


sunspot region 1389
67% chance of M Flare
69% chance of X Flare
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

chances are looking good for a New Years Eve X Flare!

i just checked, and Earths proximity over sunspot region 1389 for today is almost direct
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


That Bradford site says 10%...I guess they changed it.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


they do
on the right it explaines the probality forcast
the program they use scans SDO images each 2 min and their forecast is updated according
its a great site for up to date % risk of flares and from what regions
 Quoting: NiNzrez




i got it^^

SolarWatch--New M-flares and SUDDEN IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE--12/31/12




[link to www.youtube.com]
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
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12/31/2011 03:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


sunspot region 1389
67% chance of M Flare
69% chance of X Flare
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

chances are looking good for a New Years Eve X Flare!

i just checked, and Earths proximity over sunspot region 1389 for today is almost direct
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


That Bradford site says 10%...I guess they changed it.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


they do
on the right it explaines the probality forcast
the program they use scans SDO images each 2 min and their forecast is updated according
its a great site for up to date % risk of flares and from what regions
 Quoting: NiNzrez




i got it^^

SolarWatch--New M-flares and SUDDEN IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE--12/31/12




[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


awesome
but haha check you date eger beaver
you have that listed for 2012 :P
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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Germany
12/31/2011 03:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
lol, i swear i drunk only 2 beers so far...big thx!!!

and fixed^^
NiNzrez (OP)

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12/31/2011 03:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
lol, i swear i drunk only 2 beers so far...big thx!!!

and fixed^^
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


it's new years eve IWTB
no one is buying the "only 2 beers" story ^^
xoxo
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
miatard

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12/31/2011 04:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Everyone have a happy and safe new years eve!
no drinking and driving!! :)

and best of luck for 2012

hf

I can't help but think tonight, how our 1st week in 2011 started with all the birds falling from the sky.
wondering if in this 1st week in 2012 will bring something of the sort
something big that will make us all sit back and say "Wow!"
i guess we will find out soon enough
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I've been thinking that too. Things are already ramping up after a bit of a lull in the 2011 Doom.
Anonymous Coward
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12/31/2011 06:06 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Happy new year...2012 here in Germany


:katlaalesignatur:
:katlaalebottles:


2012 will be the year for SolarWatch!


Love ya all


:woodydrink:
Anonymous Coward
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12/31/2011 06:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Happy New Year SOLARWATCH !!!

choruswavechoruswavechoruswavechorus


ana ana ana ana


Have fun be safe IWTB drunk
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 7976466
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12/31/2011 06:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
At 22:00 UTC there was a violent filament eruption and CME on the SE limb.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

abomb
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1297814
Germany
12/31/2011 06:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
At 22:00 UTC there was a violent filament eruption and CME on the SE limb.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

abomb
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


yep , nice



[link to www.youtube.com]
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 7976466
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12/31/2011 06:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
At 22:00 UTC there was a violent filament eruption and CME on the SE limb.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

abomb
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


yep , nice



[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Hey,IWTB, Happy New Year! I don't know if NASA's busy partying or what, but updates are slow or non-existent on most of their solar sites.
drinkswoohoosun
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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Germany
12/31/2011 07:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
yep lol^^

SDO AIA 304 MOVIE CLOSEUP:
[link to helioviewer.org]
old guard

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12/31/2011 08:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Happy New Year IWTB!!!

5ahfbanana2toungepump2
Anonymous Coward
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12/31/2011 08:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Happy New Year IWTB!!!

5ahfbanana2toungepump2
 Quoting: old guard


happy new year, old guardcheers

band

beer2

headbang
Anonymous Coward
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12/31/2011 08:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Exciting couple of days. Hi Nin, thanks Hugh and IWTB and everyone for your work.

Happy New year!!!chorus
old guard

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12/31/2011 08:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Happy New Year Finley!!!5ahf
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 7976466
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12/31/2011 11:59 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Happy New Year SOLARWATCH !!!

choruswavechoruswavechoruswavechorus


ana ana ana ana


Have fun be safe IWTB drunk
 Quoting: TS66

Likewise to ALL!
bumphiding
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
United States
01/01/2012 12:19 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Everyone have a happy and safe new years eve!
no drinking and driving!! :)

and best of luck for 2012

hf

I can't help but think tonight, how our 1st week in 2011 started with all the birds falling from the sky.wondering if in this 1st week in 2012 will bring something of the sort
something big that will make us all sit back and say "Wow!"
i guess we will find out soon enough
 Quoting: NiNzrez


wtf this is a NEW report for today

BEEBE, AR - Between 40 and 50 blackbirds have fallen in Beebe this New Year’s Eve, according to the police department.
[link to www.fox16.com]


Beebe birds falling from sky increase to 80
(updated 3 min ago)
BEEBE, Ark. (KTHV) Beebe animal control officer Horace Taylor says his office has picked up about 80 dead black birds.

Similar to 2010 New Year's Eve, the birds fell from the sky during fireworks. Authorities have put an emergency ban on fireworks. Police say the first call came in at 7:14 p.m. of birds falling. A THV crew is on their way to the scene on Center Street
[link to www.todaysthv.com]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?

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