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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
United States
01/03/2012 12:34 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
seems to be on the rise
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


we do have the Coronal Hole winds hitting earth now as IWTB explained

But i saw this proton rise and went to have a look
usually we see these proton rises when there is a CME
and all charts show something hit
here is the nict
look at all the graphs, including the AL/AU and AO/AE
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
we can see something arrived around just before midnight UTC time

so lets see the other charts for that time
we see the proton rise around the same time
protons took a rise, electrons took a sharp drop, so did the magnetometer
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

and the K index rose to Kp3 with Kp4 expected at this time
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

here is the current magnetogram
[link to www.solarham.com]

Kiruna Magnetogram Description
[link to hpde.gsfc.nasa.gov]

a NOAA space weather Alert was issued:

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1849
Issue Time: 2012 Jan 03 0504 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jan 03 0503 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jan 03 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Good thing were getting the NOAA 3 day forcast before they get a chance to change it haha
here is what they had to say

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for day 1 (3 January).
Activity is
forecast to increase to mostly unsettled conditions with possible
active periods on day 2 (4 January) with an anticipated solar sector
boundary crossing (SSBC). Conditions should return to mostly quiet
on day 3 (5 January).
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


my guess is that the solar sector boundary crossing has happened a whole day earlier than expected


what is solar sector boundary crossing?
The solar wind in the ecliptic plane is organized in such a way that it generally has 2 or 4 sectors per solar rotation (27 days) within which the magnetic field is pointed generally toward or away from the Sun. The surface separating the polarities is called the Heliospheric Current Sheet.
Sector boundaries are the times observed at Earth when the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) reverses. Well defined sector boundaries are those boundaries for which there is good data, the reversal takes place cleanly, and intervals on either side of the boundary have a uniform field direction for ~4 days
[link to wso.stanford.edu]

(view page 2)
[link to docs.google.com (secure)]


Observation of the relationship between solar sector boundary crossing and lightning frequency by the ISS-b satellite
[link to adsabs.harvard.edu]

this all sounds like it's right up SickScent and aether's aley
:)

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 01/03/2012 12:49 AM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 8083266
United States
01/03/2012 01:18 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
seems to be on the rise
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


we do have the Coronal Hole winds hitting earth now as IWTB explained

But i saw this proton rise and went to have a look
usually we see these proton rises when there is a CME
and all charts show something hit
here is the nict
look at all the graphs, including the AL/AU and AO/AE
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
we can see something arrived around just before midnight UTC time

so lets see the other charts for that time
we see the proton rise around the same time
protons took a rise, electrons took a sharp drop, so did the magnetometer
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

and the K index rose to Kp3 with Kp4 expected at this time
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

here is the current magnetogram
[link to www.solarham.com]

Kiruna Magnetogram Description
[link to hpde.gsfc.nasa.gov]

a NOAA space weather Alert was issued:

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1849
Issue Time: 2012 Jan 03 0504 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jan 03 0503 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jan 03 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Good thing were getting the NOAA 3 day forcast before they get a chance to change it haha
here is what they had to say

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for day 1 (3 January).
Activity is
forecast to increase to mostly unsettled conditions with possible
active periods on day 2 (4 January) with an anticipated solar sector
boundary crossing (SSBC). Conditions should return to mostly quiet
on day 3 (5 January).
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


my guess is that the solar sector boundary crossing has happened a whole day earlier than expected


what is solar sector boundary crossing?
The solar wind in the ecliptic plane is organized in such a way that it generally has 2 or 4 sectors per solar rotation (27 days) within which the magnetic field is pointed generally toward or away from the Sun. The surface separating the polarities is called the Heliospheric Current Sheet.
Sector boundaries are the times observed at Earth when the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) reverses. Well defined sector boundaries are those boundaries for which there is good data, the reversal takes place cleanly, and intervals on either side of the boundary have a uniform field direction for ~4 days
[link to wso.stanford.edu]

(view page 2)
[link to docs.google.com (secure)]


Observation of the relationship between solar sector boundary crossing and lightning frequency by the ISS-b satellite
[link to adsabs.harvard.edu]

this all sounds like it's right up SickScent and aether's aley
:)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Nice catch, NIN, and good research,too.applause Solar sector boundary crossing,eh, I'm glad to learn something new today. Looks more geo-effective than the CME we just had.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

A GLP'er has devised his own Space weather monitor widget for Windows. I haven't used it but you or others may find it useful.
Thread: Space weather gadget I made and am releasing here first. v1.3 released.

I hope you're keeping warm and cozy up there in Michigan.coffeecup
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1297814
Germany
01/03/2012 06:48 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
GoodMorning,


:SunspotJan32012:

The new Region 1391 rotated on the disc yesterday gets numbered overnight and is now a H type group at 120 millionths


1390 reappeared again, Region 1389 which is the largest group decreased in size but magnetically increased to a Beta-Gamma type group again

greetings from the neighborhood^^



[link to www.youtube.com]
learner
User ID: 8138393
United States
01/03/2012 10:24 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
what is solar sector boundary crossing?
The solar wind in the ecliptic plane is organized in such a way that it generally has 2 or 4 sectors per solar rotation (27 days) within which the magnetic field is pointed generally toward or away from the Sun. The surface separating the polarities is called the Heliospheric Current Sheet.
Sector boundaries are the times observed at Earth when the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) reverses. Well defined sector boundaries are those boundaries for which there is good data, the reversal takes place cleanly, and intervals on either side of the boundary have a uniform field direction for ~4 days
[link to wso.stanford.edu]

 Quoting: NiNzrez


interdasting...

2 to 4 sectors per rotation: from our perspective?
"~4 days"? this means, again, from our perspective?

everything rotating: so hard to visualize, but, can we use the number of days earth takes to pass thru a sector to derive how many sectors and sector 'orbital speed'?

are they regular?static or dynamic?

more data needed obviously, but i keep thinking about variable CME velocities and effects felt on Earth seemingly caused by events on Sol that happen too quickly for light speed (hmmm.sudden thought. maybe both are actually effects of some other unmeasured driving phenomenon) ...

anyway: pretty sure our location in these spiral lines affect our dynamics and CME velocities.

combining a map of these solar maglines and planetary (all of 'em) locations with solar and geo activity would be interesting i think.
Ozark

User ID: 1122839
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01/03/2012 12:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Something is happening right now.Feel it in the body and our power went out, then back on. Must be serious, feeling pressure on whole body, earth rocking motion and crawly sensations on the back of my neck.
Favorite quote or Haiku,
Nikos Kazantzakis

" I said to the Almond tree, "Sister, speak to me of God..."
And the Almond tree blossomed...
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 8193930
United States
01/03/2012 12:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Large filament eruption in the north-central region produces CME. This may be geo-effective, but SOHO and STEREO A not updating.

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

GONG H-alpha movie of filament launch:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

explosionhiding
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 8193930
United States
01/03/2012 01:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ACTIVE REGION PROXIMITY ALERT- any further major flares from 1389 will be well-connected to Earth.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

SDO has added a colorized magnetogram and has done away with the B&W Intensity-gram (my fav).

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 8202987
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01/03/2012 03:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Time-lapse video of more than 1300 CMEs in 2011.



[link to www.youtube.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1297814
Germany
01/03/2012 03:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Oh please...dr strong is an id...
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 8202987
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01/03/2012 03:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
2011 Year In Review...4 biggest X-flares.



[link to www.youtube.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1297814
Germany
01/03/2012 03:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
2011 Year In Review...4 biggest X-flares.



[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


omg...ninz please
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1297814
Germany
01/03/2012 03:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi all,





a little surprise....
chorus chorus


[link to solarwatchninzrez.blogspot.com]


smile_kiss

cheers
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1297814
Germany
01/03/2012 03:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Latest SDO AIA 304


We can see 1389 in earth facing position

Also the recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH491) is close to it.

A prominence above is worth to watch...




[link to www.youtube.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 8118461
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01/03/2012 03:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi all,





a little surprise....
chorus chorus


[link to solarwatchninzrez.blogspot.com]


smile_kiss

cheers
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Cool man. I'm following
TipKat

User ID: 8139458
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01/03/2012 04:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thank you IWTB76! I have always been more of a watcher on this thread than a contributor for a while now. I truly appreciate and enjoy all the work you, Ninz and the others do here. I look forward to hearing more from all of you on the new blog. :-) Of course if I can ever contribute anything in the future I won't hesitate. Thanks again!
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 8202987
United States
01/03/2012 05:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Large filament eruption in the north-central region produces CME. This may be geo-effective, but SOHO and STEREO A not updating.

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

GONG H-alpha movie of filament launch:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

explosionhiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

Large gap in SOHO data, however here's C3 image of CME-(most likely NOT earth directed).

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1297814
Germany
01/03/2012 05:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
You see that also in latest Stereo Behind Movie:
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

CloseUp filament; near to the new region
[link to helioviewer.org]

SunspotToday
[link to i1220.photobucket.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1412926
United Kingdom
01/03/2012 05:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi all,





a little surprise....
chorus chorus


[link to solarwatchninzrez.blogspot.com]


smile_kiss

cheers
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


rockon

thumbs
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1517751
United States
01/03/2012 05:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi all,





a little surprise....
chorus chorus


[link to solarwatchninzrez.blogspot.com]


smile_kiss

cheers
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


LOVE IT! Following and happy you guys did this. hf
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1297814
Germany
01/03/2012 06:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Haha, big thx all
grouphug


Happy Perihelion!

Tomorrow (January 4) at 8 pm EST the Earth will be at perihelion. This is the point in our orbit around the Sun that is closest to the Sun. Why do we care?



Here is a comparison of HMI Quick-Look continuum images from January and July:


[link to 1.bp.blogspot.com]


The two horizontal lines show how high the Sun appears today. When those lines are extended to the left, the July image is a little over 3% smaller. When we designed the instruments on SDO we had to make sure the largest appearance of the Sun would fit on the CCDs.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Ozark

User ID: 1113004
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01/03/2012 06:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi all,





a little surprise....
chorus chorus


[link to solarwatchninzrez.blogspot.com]


smile_kiss

cheers
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Great!! Have saved and will monitor y'all there too!
Favorite quote or Haiku,
Nikos Kazantzakis

" I said to the Almond tree, "Sister, speak to me of God..."
And the Almond tree blossomed...
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1297814
Germany
01/04/2012 05:13 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
GoodMorning all,


[link to i1220.photobucket.com]

the new region 1392 was numbered overnight and is now a small BXO type group at 10 millionths.

Our largest Region 1389 on the visible solar disc so far, reduced in size and magnetic complexity.


[link to i1220.photobucket.com]


Region 1391 on the east limb developed several small spots behind the the larger main leading spot.
This could be very interesting the next days.

Solar activity was quiet so far, no C Class flare took place yesterday but this morning a minute ago a small C 1.5 took place:


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Edit:


Right after the flare there was some nice activity around the coronal hole...will upload some images
Anonymous Coward
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01/04/2012 05:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
GoodMorning all,


[link to i1220.photobucket.com]

the new region 1392 was numbered overnight and is now a small BXO type group at 10 millionths.

Our largest Region 1389 on the visible solar disc so far, reduced in size and magnetic complexity.


[link to i1220.photobucket.com]


Region 1391 on the east limb developed several small spots behind the the larger main leading spot.
This could be very interesting the next days.

Solar activity was quiet so far, no C Class flare took place yesterday but this morning a minute ago a small C 1.5 took place:


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Edit:


Right after the flare there was some nice activity around the coronal hole...will upload some images
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Okay,

Flare of class C1.5 1392 08:57:00 09:02:00 09:05:00
[link to www.tesis.lebedev.ru]


:sdocompjan4:


See also the larger Images:

1)
[link to i1220.photobucket.com]

2)
[link to i1220.photobucket.com]

3)
[link to i1220.photobucket.com]

4)
[link to i1220.photobucket.com]

This triggerd a filament eruption
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1297814
Germany
01/04/2012 07:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We have another small C Flare

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

a C 1.3

LMSAL shows it from Region 1389...but lmsal is wrong again


If we check latest SDO its from region 1386
[link to helioviewer.org]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1297814
Germany
01/04/2012 07:59 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We have another small C Flare

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

a C 1.3

LMSAL shows it from Region 1389...but lmsal is wrong again


If we check latest SDO its from region 1386
[link to helioviewer.org]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


You see also some ejection after the flare took place

SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 04 Jan 2012, 1129UT

The Sun has produced a C1.5 flare on January 4, peaking at 09:02 UT, which was accompanied by a filament eruption with center about 20N 20W. A C1.3 flare was also observed by GOES peaking at 11:06 UT on January 4. Solar activity is expected to remain at C flare level, with a slight chance for an M flare. On January 4, the solar wind speed and IMF measured by ACE have returned to about 350 km/s and 5 nT, respectively. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet and will likely remain quiet before the second part of January 6. Around that time, active conditions are possible with a chance for a minor storm due to the expected effects of a high speed wind stream associated with an equatorial coronal hole.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

ohyeah
learner
User ID: 8138393
United States
01/04/2012 12:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi all,





a little surprise....
chorus chorus


[link to solarwatchninzrez.blogspot.com]


smile_kiss

cheers
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


!

:D
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1297814
Germany
01/04/2012 03:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
^^


Testing for the Venus Transit
[link to www.twitvid.com]



A transit of Venus across the Sun takes place when the planet Venus passes directly between the Sun and Earth, becoming visible against (and hence obscuring a small portion of) the solar disk. During a transit, Venus can be seen from Earth as a small black disk moving across the face of the Sun. The duration of such transits is usually measured in hours (the transit of 2004 lasted six hours). A transit is similar to a solar eclipse by the Moon. While the diameter of Venus is almost four times that of the Moon, Venus appears smaller, and travels more slowly across the face of the Sun, because it is much farther away from Earth. Observations of transits of Venus helped scientists use the principle of parallax to calculate the distance between the Sun and the Earth.


Transits of Venus are among the rarest of predictable astronomical phenomena. They occur in a pattern that repeats every 243 years, with pairs of transits eight years apart separated by long gaps of 121.5 years and 105.5 years. The periodicity is a reflection of the fact that the orbital periods of Earth and Venus are close to 8:13 and 243:395 resonances.

Before 2004, the last pair of transits were in December 1874 and December 1882. The first of a pair of transits of Venus in the beginning of the 21st century took place on 8 June 2004 and the next will be on 6 June 2012. After 2012, subsequent transits of Venus will be in December 2117 and December 2125.

A transit of Venus can be safely observed by taking the same precautions used when observing the partial phases of a solar eclipse. Staring at the brilliant disk of the Sun (the photosphere) with the unprotected eye can quickly cause serious and often permanent eye damage.


[link to en.wikipedia.org]
Anonymous Coward
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Germany
01/05/2012 08:35 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
GoodMorning all,


finally we have some pretty action


Today we had another 2 C Flares but the latest one has some interest Event inbound


First C Flare from Region 1390

Flare of class C1.9 1390 07:01:00 07:22:00 07:43:00


the latest seems located Region 1392 near to the coronal hole


this mid duration flare [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


caused a large filament eruption close to this spot


:eruptionregion13:



See latest SDO AIA 304!!!
[link to i1220.photobucket.com]


as expected we have a CME

:lateststereobehi:


More soon

or visit:
[link to solarwatchninzrez.blogspot.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1297814
Germany
01/05/2012 08:55 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
oh and SIDC Belgium now reports:


SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 05 Jan 2012, 0936UT

NOAA region 11390 released a C1.9 flare on January 5, peaking at 07:22 UT. It was accompanied by a Type II radio burst with an estimated shock velocity of 695 km/s. At the time of writing this ursigram (12:30 UT), a flare from NOAA region 11392 is ongoing, has reached C2.1 and is still rising. Solar activity is expected to remain at C flare level. During the last 24 hours, ACE solar wind speed has been steadily decreasing from about 350 km/s to about 300 km/s, while the IMF is stable around 5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet and will likely remain quiet before the second part of January 6. From that time on, active conditions are possible with a chance for a minor storm due to the expected effects of a high speed wind stream associated with an equatorial coronal hole.
[link to sidc.oma.be]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1297814
Germany
01/05/2012 09:12 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
GoodMorning all,


finally we have some pretty action


Today we had another 2 C Flares but the latest one has some interest Event inbound


First C Flare from Region 1390

Flare of class C1.9 1390 07:01:00 07:22:00 07:43:00


the latest seems located Region 1392 near to the coronal hole


this mid duration flare [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


caused a large filament eruption close to this spot


:eruptionregion13:


See latest SDO AIA 304!!!
[link to i1220.photobucket.com]


as expected we have a CME

:lateststereobehi:


More soon

or visit:
[link to solarwatchninzrez.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76



ok uploaded a helioviewer vid:



[link to www.youtube.com]

News








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