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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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01/21/2012 09:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Rising again! Big jump now! [link to www.n3kl.org]
learner
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01/21/2012 10:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
in my opinion:

today's scientists are trying to understand Sol's behavior by first considering him as 'closed system': everything that he does must result from some internal process, and since science believes that gravity is the first cause of Sol's energetic release, all of the hypotheses will be largely incorrect, stemming as there are from incorrect basic assumptions.

whatever drives his energy release, i feel that we must first consider him in the context of his whole system and realize that all energy exchange is a two way process.

broad strokes first and detail second.

trying to understand Sol by theorizing detailed magnetic interactions is like try to get from fractal leaf geometry to the Mandelbrot set. the first being mind bogglingly complex while the second: so simple.

-'course we had to invoke the imaginary plane first....
learner
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01/21/2012 10:55 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
- re-examining earlier posted 'alignment' dates using my newly found orrery (so sweet).

first, i feel that an actual day is to short of a 'time bite' for these things. somewhere between 3 and 7 days feels more correct.

-windows of time, while the slower processes move.

so.

if we give any weight to the 90 deg alignment thing (and in my mind : nothing is confirmed yet) then we'll have two more 'windows' this year:

late september/early Oct (Mars ruling here)

and mid November (Venus ruling here). This one with some possible radial alignments between Us, Luna and Mercury, also... looking forward to that one...

so.

we shall see.

eyes wide open
zacksavage

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
in my opinion:

today's scientists are trying to understand Sol's behavior by first considering him as 'closed system': everything that he does must result from some internal process, and since science believes that gravity is the first cause of Sol's energetic release, all of the hypotheses will be largely incorrect, stemming as there are from incorrect basic assumptions.

whatever drives his energy release, i feel that we must first consider him in the context of his whole system and realize that all energy exchange is a two way process.

broad strokes first and detail second.

trying to understand Sol by theorizing detailed magnetic interactions is like try to get from fractal leaf geometry to the Mandelbrot set. the first being mind bogglingly complex while the second: so simple.

-'course we had to invoke the imaginary plane first....
 Quoting: learner 8531500



The system is growing ever larger every day as humans grasp at straws in trying to understand infinity. New unforeseen data enters into consciousness at an ever escalating rate to where the average human can not keep up,...the old theories may be showing signs of collapse as we morph into a new system of reality based upon all the inedible amount of new data .

The Sun may be an actor but not the center of a system that is truly infinite.

But, I digress,...

I found what you wrote profound.
" fractal leaf geometry to the Mandelbrot set"


Z

Last Edited by zacksavage on 01/21/2012 11:16 AM
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
leaner
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
and mid November (Venus ruling here). This one with some possible radial alignments between Us, Luna and Mercury, also... looking forward to that one...
 Quoting: learner 8531500


sudden thought here:

only 'straight "line" / "connection" happens on the perpendicular.

all line connections are curved/curves. thinking spiral field lines commin' from Sol.

shouldn't the 'alignment fall along these 'lines' for interaction to occur? not straight radial but spiral radial?

spiral radial...

just thoughts following thoughts leading....?
Anonymous Coward
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01/21/2012 11:12 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
A CME from the western limb is seen on SOHO Cor 2 images:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
NiNzrez  (OP)

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01/21/2012 11:15 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Here is some helpful information for all.

Spatial Relationship between Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections
ABSTRACT
2nd paragraph:
A solar flare is a sudden flash of electromagnetic radiation (suggesting plasma heating) in the solar atmosphere, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) is an eruption of the atmospheric plasma into interplanetary space. Both phenomena are thought to be different manifestations of the same process which releases magnetic free energy stored in the solar atmosphere.The spatial relation between flares and CMEs contains information on the magnetic field configurations involved in the eruptive process and hence is important for modeling them. Many flare-CME models are based on the CSHKP (Carmichael, Sturrock, Hirayama, Kopp & Pneuman) magnetic reconnection model. The model requires that a flare occurs just underneath an erupting filament which eventually becomes the core of the CME associated with the flare. Normally the core corresponds to the center of the CME; thus the CSHKP model requires that the flare occurs near the center of the CME span.

The web site can be found here:
[link to iopscience.iop.org]

One other interesting article is here:

AGU 2011-Space Weather Workshop 12.06.11
Five scientists speaking at a workshop at the 2011 Fall AGU meeting in San Francisco on Tuesday, December 6 at 10 AM PST will discuss the complex -- and relatively new -- research area of space weather. The term refers to a host of disturbances that can alter the vast electromagnetic system stretching from the sun to Earth and all the way to the edges of the solar system.

The web site can be found here:
[link to www.nasa.gov]


The internet is a great library!

popcorn
 Quoting: joinca


great find Jonica :)
thank for adding this
NiNzrez  (OP)

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01/21/2012 11:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good morning all. I was just catching up...reading yesterday's posts. Man oh man......what's up with weatherspace.com? Jeeze, how can they simply not care that their information is incorrect. I am so glad that I come here for correct information. I've learned a lot here. There is still a lot I don't understand but at least I do know the difference between a flare and a CME...thanks to the people here.
 Quoting: shenue


glad to have you here Shenue :)
NiNzrez  (OP)

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01/21/2012 11:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
A CME from the western limb is seen on SOHO Cor 2 images:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9281394


good eye
this is from a small CME produced on the northwest area of the solar disk
this CME caused the filament to its east to become unstable
im watching it now to see if this filament lifts off
here you can see this in the top right area
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
NiNzrez  (OP)

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01/21/2012 11:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
At approximately 04:01 UTC the CME that accompanied the January 16th LDE C 6.5 flare from Sunspot Region 1402 arrived. At 04:01 ACE data showed an increase in proton density from 1.6 P/cc to 8.3P/cc and an uptick in the solar wind from 301.1 K/ps to 343.5 K/ps. This is just the first in a wave of CMEs expected over the next couple of days....

[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse warning was issued for this event, but then cancled.
I have seen other places today, it being said that this was a cancel for the CME from the 19th
it is not
this warning that was issued, then later canceled was for the event Tom spoke of above
the CME from Jan 16th
It sure does get a bit confusing when we have more than one CME we are expecting
but we will continue to try hard here to help make it all clear :)

Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 100
Issue Time: 2012 Jan 21 0526 UTC

CANCEL WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Cancel Serial Number: 99
Original Issue Time: 2012 Jan 21 0450 UTC

Comment: Conditions for this warning are no longer present.

------------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 140
Issue Time: 2012 Jan 21 0525 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Jan 21 0502 UTC
Deviation: 9 nT
Station: Boulder

------------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 99
Issue Time: 2012 Jan 21 0450 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2012 Jan 21 0448 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jan 21 0648 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2012 Jan 21 0400 UTC

Comment: Shock passage time approximate.
Trbl Ivan

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01/21/2012 11:41 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

starting to see some minor action
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2280033


was just coming here to post this
the front of the expected CME has arrived

and to make it clear, because of some peoples reports today.....
the CME that is arriving right now is the CME from Jan 16th!
NOT the CME that was associated with the LDE M flare yesterday, Jan 19th
here you can read the original report (with images)from Jan 16th of the CME that is now arriving
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Now it is time to keep an eye on this.
Thanks Nin
You people speak so lightly of war; you don't know what you're talking about. Sherman
shadasonic

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
and mid November (Venus ruling here). This one with some possible radial alignments between Us, Luna and Mercury, also... looking forward to that one...
 Quoting: learner 8531500


sudden thought here:

only 'straight "line" / "connection" happens on the perpendicular.

all line connections are curved/curves. thinking spiral field lines commin' from Sol.

shouldn't the 'alignment fall along these 'lines' for interaction to occur? not straight radial but spiral radial?

spiral radial...

just thoughts following thoughts leading....?
 Quoting: leaner 8531500


I can't beleve that concept hasn't occur to me, it would have to be spiral, right?
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
NiNzrez  (OP)

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01/21/2012 12:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
and mid November (Venus ruling here). This one with some possible radial alignments between Us, Luna and Mercury, also... looking forward to that one...
 Quoting: learner 8531500


sudden thought here:

only 'straight "line" / "connection" happens on the perpendicular.

all line connections are curved/curves. thinking spiral field lines commin' from Sol.

shouldn't the 'alignment fall along these 'lines' for interaction to occur? not straight radial but spiral radial?

spiral radial...

just thoughts following thoughts leading....?
 Quoting: leaner 8531500


I can't beleve that concept hasn't occur to me, it would have to be spiral, right?
 Quoting: shadasonic


the Parker Spiral :)
[link to en.wikipedia.org]
truz1980

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I'm not sure what it is called but does anyone have a link for the absorption chart (maybe that's what it's called). The planet is laid out flat and I remember a big white spot over Japan before the big quake hit. TY:)
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Channel eruption west limb and old region 1396 flaring Around 10:00UTC we can see a CME on STEREO images this matchs with the channel eruption on the east limb.
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
We noticed another ejection around 12:28 and 14:00 UTC located off the east limb around old Region 1396.
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
TryToGetTheTruth

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I'm not sure what it is called but does anyone have a link for the absorption chart (maybe that's what it's called). The planet is laid out flat and I remember a big white spot over Japan before the big quake hit. TY:)
 Quoting: truz1980


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

is this what you want
Open mind required !

I am in SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO, CANADA
truz1980

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01/21/2012 12:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I'm not sure what it is called but does anyone have a link for the absorption chart (maybe that's what it's called). The planet is laid out flat and I remember a big white spot over Japan before the big quake hit. TY:)
 Quoting: truz1980


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

is this what you want
 Quoting: TryToGetTheTruth


Yes thank you very muchhf
Anonymous Coward
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01/21/2012 12:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I noticed another bump in the ACE proton data. The 6-hour plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

And 24-hour plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
NiNzrez  (OP)

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I'm not sure what it is called but does anyone have a link for the absorption chart (maybe that's what it's called). The planet is laid out flat and I remember a big white spot over Japan before the big quake hit. TY:)
 Quoting: truz1980


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
we have it to the left hand side on our blog :)
NiNzrez  (OP)

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01/21/2012 01:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
A CME from the western limb is seen on SOHO Cor 2 images:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9281394


good eye
this is from a small CME produced on the northwest area of the solar disk
this CME caused the filament to its east to become unstable
im watching it now to see if this filament lifts off
here you can see this in the top right area
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Channel eruption west limb and old region 1396 flaring Around 10:00UTC we can see a CME on STEREO images this matchs with the channel eruption on the east limb.
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
We noticed another ejection around 12:28 and 14:00 UTC located off the east limb around old Region 1396.
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


we will update on the filament condition soon :)
NiNzrez  (OP)

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I noticed another bump in the ACE proton data. The 6-hour plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

And 24-hour plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9281394


yup sure was
remember, there was 3 CMEs
one on the 16th, a southern one on the 18th, then the big one on the 19th
all with dif directions of ejection
we all need to remember what we have seen the "3 cme's" do in the past
cause this is not the 1st time we have see this in the past year
the last. and faster CME catches the ones in front of it
we see a bit of shock seen on the nict
thats from the very front fluff
then the bulk arrives
this is what we shall watch for on the nict today
1. slight disturbances
2.leading to a bit more disturbance after some time
3. the bulk of the main CME to arrive
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
There seems to be some disagreement concerning CME arrival forecasts between NOAA and NASA. NOAA has pushed back the anticipated arrival time to late on 1/22 or early 1/23. According to Spaceweather.com, NASA Goddard is still projecting arrival at Earth for 1/21 @22:30 UTC. Even with a 7-hour margin of error they don't quite match up.
NOAA Enlil CME mdl:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA forecast:

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA cygnet streamer:
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

From spaceweather.com:

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs).
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

This is why I love solar-watching. There's so much uncertainty and disagreement among scientists and forecasters. NASA can predict where a tiny asteroid will be with amazing accuracy years in advance....but somethoing as large as a CME or solar activity in general defies all of their "inside-the-box" thinking.

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 01/21/2012 01:20 PM
Starwind

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
There seems to be some disagreement concerning CME arrival forecasts between NOAA and NASA. NOAA has pushed back the anticipated arrival time to late on 1/22 or early 1/23. According to Spaceweather.com, NASA Goddard is still projecting arrival at Earth for 1/21 @22:30 UTC. Even with a 7-hour margin of error they don't quite match up.
NOAA Enlil CME mdl:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA forecast:

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA cygnet streamer:
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

From spaceweather.com:

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs).
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

This why I love solar-watching. There's so much uncertainty and disagreement among scientists and forecasters. NASA can predict where a tiny asteroid will be with amazing accuracy years in advance....but somethoing as large as a CME or solar activity in general defies all of their "inside-the-box" thinking.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I may as well start making predictions based on some of theirs.

Calling it now, G3.

Or G0.
Anonymous Coward
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01/21/2012 01:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Is the CME from January 19th piggy backing in on another CME?

Is that not what caused the Carrington Event?
NiNzrez  (OP)

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01/21/2012 02:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
There seems to be some disagreement concerning CME arrival forecasts between NOAA and NASA. NOAA has pushed back the anticipated arrival time to late on 1/22 or early 1/23. According to Spaceweather.com, NASA Goddard is still projecting arrival at Earth for 1/21 @22:30 UTC. Even with a 7-hour margin of error they don't quite match up.
NOAA Enlil CME mdl:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA forecast:

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA cygnet streamer:
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

From spaceweather.com:

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs).
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

This is why I love solar-watching. There's so much uncertainty and disagreement among scientists and forecasters. NASA can predict where a tiny asteroid will be with amazing accuracy years in advance....but somethoing as large as a CME or solar activity in general defies all of their "inside-the-box" thinking.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


stick with what NASA Goddard has said
late tonight into early tomorrow UTC time
there is NO WAY this CME will take 4-5 days to arrive
rosie80

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01/21/2012 02:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Is the CME from January 19th piggy backing in on another CME?

Is that not what caused the Carrington Event?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9221078


That is correct .. but I don't think they know the intensity of the two ejections .. or flares in themselves .. I read that and thought the same thing .. I will post the link that says there is two coming ..
.... 22426221213 ....
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Don't have much knowledge on CME's or solar flares.. but could someone tell me a good estimate when it will hit? I'm in the Northeast U.S. and what are some of the possible effects from this CME in particular? Thanks in advance!

hf
NiNzrez  (OP)

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Is the CME from January 19th piggy backing in on another CME?

Is that not what caused the Carrington Event?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9221078


well, yes and yes
but may i add that this piggyback CME has happened many many times since the carrington event
it happens ofter with multiple CME events within a short amount of time
the carrington event was the perfect i guess we can say
the perfect ejection direction of a massive CME
that arrived after other had already arrived and crippled our magnetosphere
NiNzrez  (OP)

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01/21/2012 02:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Is the CME from January 19th piggy backing in on another CME?

Is that not what caused the Carrington Event?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9221078


That is correct .. but I don't think they know the intensity of the two ejections .. or flares in themselves .. I read that and thought the same thing .. I will post the link that says there is two coming ..
 Quoting: rosie80


we had 3
a CME on the 16th, 18th and 19th

the Jan 16th CME
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

the Jan 18th CME
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

the Jan 19th CME
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

we already seen the shock from the Jan 16th CME
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

it is unclear if the CME from the southern region on the 18th will give a glancing blow or not
or if it will merge in space with the faster CME from the 19th
though, this is what we expect will happen
Anonymous Coward
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01/21/2012 02:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Didn't NASA say the sun was entering a solar maximum or some type of cycle where we may expect more activity than usual?





GLP