SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 9273503 Portugal 01/21/2012 09:03 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Rising again! Big jump now! [link to www.n3kl.org] |
learner User ID: 8531500 United States 01/21/2012 10:23 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | in my opinion: today's scientists are trying to understand Sol's behavior by first considering him as 'closed system': everything that he does must result from some internal process, and since science believes that gravity is the first cause of Sol's energetic release, all of the hypotheses will be largely incorrect, stemming as there are from incorrect basic assumptions. whatever drives his energy release, i feel that we must first consider him in the context of his whole system and realize that all energy exchange is a two way process. broad strokes first and detail second. trying to understand Sol by theorizing detailed magnetic interactions is like try to get from fractal leaf geometry to the Mandelbrot set. the first being mind bogglingly complex while the second: so simple. -'course we had to invoke the imaginary plane first.... |
learner User ID: 8531500 United States 01/21/2012 10:55 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | - re-examining earlier posted 'alignment' dates using my newly found orrery (so sweet). first, i feel that an actual day is to short of a 'time bite' for these things. somewhere between 3 and 7 days feels more correct. -windows of time, while the slower processes move. so. if we give any weight to the 90 deg alignment thing (and in my mind : nothing is confirmed yet) then we'll have two more 'windows' this year: late september/early Oct (Mars ruling here) and mid November (Venus ruling here). This one with some possible radial alignments between Us, Luna and Mercury, also... looking forward to that one... so. we shall see. eyes wide open |
zacksavage User ID: 9279809 United States 01/21/2012 11:02 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | in my opinion: Quoting: learner 8531500 today's scientists are trying to understand Sol's behavior by first considering him as 'closed system': everything that he does must result from some internal process, and since science believes that gravity is the first cause of Sol's energetic release, all of the hypotheses will be largely incorrect, stemming as there are from incorrect basic assumptions. whatever drives his energy release, i feel that we must first consider him in the context of his whole system and realize that all energy exchange is a two way process. broad strokes first and detail second. trying to understand Sol by theorizing detailed magnetic interactions is like try to get from fractal leaf geometry to the Mandelbrot set. the first being mind bogglingly complex while the second: so simple. -'course we had to invoke the imaginary plane first.... The system is growing ever larger every day as humans grasp at straws in trying to understand infinity. New unforeseen data enters into consciousness at an ever escalating rate to where the average human can not keep up,...the old theories may be showing signs of collapse as we morph into a new system of reality based upon all the inedible amount of new data . The Sun may be an actor but not the center of a system that is truly infinite. But, I digress,... I found what you wrote profound. " fractal leaf geometry to the Mandelbrot set" Z Last Edited by zacksavage on 01/21/2012 11:16 AM Free your mind,...your ass will follow. --- parliament funkadelic |
leaner User ID: 8531500 United States 01/21/2012 11:04 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | and mid November (Venus ruling here). This one with some possible radial alignments between Us, Luna and Mercury, also... looking forward to that one... Quoting: learner 8531500 sudden thought here: only 'straight "line" / "connection" happens on the perpendicular. all line connections are curved/curves. thinking spiral field lines commin' from Sol. shouldn't the 'alignment fall along these 'lines' for interaction to occur? not straight radial but spiral radial? spiral radial... just thoughts following thoughts leading....? |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 9281394 United States 01/21/2012 11:12 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 6459914 United States 01/21/2012 11:15 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Here is some helpful information for all. Quoting: joinca Spatial Relationship between Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections ABSTRACT 2nd paragraph: A solar flare is a sudden flash of electromagnetic radiation (suggesting plasma heating) in the solar atmosphere, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) is an eruption of the atmospheric plasma into interplanetary space. Both phenomena are thought to be different manifestations of the same process which releases magnetic free energy stored in the solar atmosphere.The spatial relation between flares and CMEs contains information on the magnetic field configurations involved in the eruptive process and hence is important for modeling them. Many flare-CME models are based on the CSHKP (Carmichael, Sturrock, Hirayama, Kopp & Pneuman) magnetic reconnection model. The model requires that a flare occurs just underneath an erupting filament which eventually becomes the core of the CME associated with the flare. Normally the core corresponds to the center of the CME; thus the CSHKP model requires that the flare occurs near the center of the CME span. The web site can be found here: [link to iopscience.iop.org] One other interesting article is here: AGU 2011-Space Weather Workshop 12.06.11 Five scientists speaking at a workshop at the 2011 Fall AGU meeting in San Francisco on Tuesday, December 6 at 10 AM PST will discuss the complex -- and relatively new -- research area of space weather. The term refers to a host of disturbances that can alter the vast electromagnetic system stretching from the sun to Earth and all the way to the edges of the solar system. The web site can be found here: [link to www.nasa.gov] The internet is a great library! great find Jonica :) thank for adding this Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 6459914 United States 01/21/2012 11:16 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Good morning all. I was just catching up...reading yesterday's posts. Man oh man......what's up with weatherspace.com? Jeeze, how can they simply not care that their information is incorrect. I am so glad that I come here for correct information. I've learned a lot here. There is still a lot I don't understand but at least I do know the difference between a flare and a CME...thanks to the people here. Quoting: shenue glad to have you here Shenue :) Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 6459914 United States 01/21/2012 11:22 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | good eye this is from a small CME produced on the northwest area of the solar disk this CME caused the filament to its east to become unstable im watching it now to see if this filament lifts off here you can see this in the top right area [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 6459914 United States 01/21/2012 11:37 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | At approximately 04:01 UTC the CME that accompanied the January 16th LDE C 6.5 flare from Sunspot Region 1402 arrived. At 04:01 ACE data showed an increase in proton density from 1.6 P/cc to 8.3P/cc and an uptick in the solar wind from 301.1 K/ps to 343.5 K/ps. This is just the first in a wave of CMEs expected over the next couple of days.... Quoting: tomasgod1 [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse warning was issued for this event, but then cancled. I have seen other places today, it being said that this was a cancel for the CME from the 19th it is not this warning that was issued, then later canceled was for the event Tom spoke of above the CME from Jan 16th It sure does get a bit confusing when we have more than one CME we are expecting but we will continue to try hard here to help make it all clear :) Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD Serial Number: 100 Issue Time: 2012 Jan 21 0526 UTC CANCEL WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected Cancel Serial Number: 99 Original Issue Time: 2012 Jan 21 0450 UTC Comment: Conditions for this warning are no longer present. ------------------------------------------------------------ Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD Serial Number: 140 Issue Time: 2012 Jan 21 0525 UTC SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse Observed: 2012 Jan 21 0502 UTC Deviation: 9 nT Station: Boulder ------------------------------------------------------------ Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD Serial Number: 99 Issue Time: 2012 Jan 21 0450 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected Valid From: 2012 Jan 21 0448 UTC Valid To: 2012 Jan 21 0648 UTC IP Shock Passage Observed: 2012 Jan 21 0400 UTC Comment: Shock passage time approximate. Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
Trbl Ivan User ID: 3889355 United States 01/21/2012 11:41 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | was just coming here to post this the front of the expected CME has arrived and to make it clear, because of some peoples reports today..... the CME that is arriving right now is the CME from Jan 16th! NOT the CME that was associated with the LDE M flare yesterday, Jan 19th here you can read the original report (with images)from Jan 16th of the CME that is now arriving [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] Now it is time to keep an eye on this. Thanks Nin You people speak so lightly of war; you don't know what you're talking about. Sherman |
shadasonic User ID: 7848598 United States 01/21/2012 12:02 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | and mid November (Venus ruling here). This one with some possible radial alignments between Us, Luna and Mercury, also... looking forward to that one... Quoting: learner 8531500 sudden thought here: only 'straight "line" / "connection" happens on the perpendicular. all line connections are curved/curves. thinking spiral field lines commin' from Sol. shouldn't the 'alignment fall along these 'lines' for interaction to occur? not straight radial but spiral radial? spiral radial... just thoughts following thoughts leading....? I can't beleve that concept hasn't occur to me, it would have to be spiral, right? “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 6459914 United States 01/21/2012 12:09 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | and mid November (Venus ruling here). This one with some possible radial alignments between Us, Luna and Mercury, also... looking forward to that one... Quoting: learner 8531500 sudden thought here: only 'straight "line" / "connection" happens on the perpendicular. all line connections are curved/curves. thinking spiral field lines commin' from Sol. shouldn't the 'alignment fall along these 'lines' for interaction to occur? not straight radial but spiral radial? spiral radial... just thoughts following thoughts leading....? I can't beleve that concept hasn't occur to me, it would have to be spiral, right? the Parker Spiral :) [link to en.wikipedia.org] Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
truz1980 User ID: 5978150 United States 01/21/2012 12:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 9273503 Portugal 01/21/2012 12:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Channel eruption west limb and old region 1396 flaring Around 10:00UTC we can see a CME on STEREO images this matchs with the channel eruption on the east limb. [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] We noticed another ejection around 12:28 and 14:00 UTC located off the east limb around old Region 1396. [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] |
TryToGetTheTruth User ID: 1347342 Canada 01/21/2012 12:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I'm not sure what it is called but does anyone have a link for the absorption chart (maybe that's what it's called). The planet is laid out flat and I remember a big white spot over Japan before the big quake hit. TY:) Quoting: truz1980 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] is this what you want Open mind required ! I am in SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO, CANADA |
truz1980 User ID: 5978150 United States 01/21/2012 12:38 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I'm not sure what it is called but does anyone have a link for the absorption chart (maybe that's what it's called). The planet is laid out flat and I remember a big white spot over Japan before the big quake hit. TY:) Quoting: truz1980 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] is this what you want Yes thank you very much |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 9281394 United States 01/21/2012 12:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I noticed another bump in the ACE proton data. The 6-hour plot: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] And 24-hour plot: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 6459914 United States 01/21/2012 01:06 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I'm not sure what it is called but does anyone have a link for the absorption chart (maybe that's what it's called). The planet is laid out flat and I remember a big white spot over Japan before the big quake hit. TY:) Quoting: truz1980 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] we have it to the left hand side on our blog :) Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 6459914 United States 01/21/2012 01:08 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | good eye this is from a small CME produced on the northwest area of the solar disk this CME caused the filament to its east to become unstable im watching it now to see if this filament lifts off here you can see this in the top right area [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Channel eruption west limb and old region 1396 flaring Around 10:00UTC we can see a CME on STEREO images this matchs with the channel eruption on the east limb. Quoting: Luisport [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] We noticed another ejection around 12:28 and 14:00 UTC located off the east limb around old Region 1396. [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] we will update on the filament condition soon :) Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 6459914 United States 01/21/2012 01:16 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I noticed another bump in the ACE proton data. The 6-hour plot: Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9281394 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] And 24-hour plot: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] yup sure was remember, there was 3 CMEs one on the 16th, a southern one on the 18th, then the big one on the 19th all with dif directions of ejection we all need to remember what we have seen the "3 cme's" do in the past cause this is not the 1st time we have see this in the past year the last. and faster CME catches the ones in front of it we see a bit of shock seen on the nict thats from the very front fluff then the bulk arrives this is what we shall watch for on the nict today 1. slight disturbances 2.leading to a bit more disturbance after some time 3. the bulk of the main CME to arrive Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 9287425 United States 01/21/2012 01:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | There seems to be some disagreement concerning CME arrival forecasts between NOAA and NASA. NOAA has pushed back the anticipated arrival time to late on 1/22 or early 1/23. According to Spaceweather.com, NASA Goddard is still projecting arrival at Earth for 1/21 @22:30 UTC. Even with a 7-hour margin of error they don't quite match up. NOAA Enlil CME mdl: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] NOAA forecast: Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] NASA cygnet streamer: [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] From spaceweather.com: Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs). [link to www.spaceweather.com] This is why I love solar-watching. There's so much uncertainty and disagreement among scientists and forecasters. NASA can predict where a tiny asteroid will be with amazing accuracy years in advance....but somethoing as large as a CME or solar activity in general defies all of their "inside-the-box" thinking. Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 01/21/2012 01:20 PM |
Starwind User ID: 4546990 United States 01/21/2012 01:20 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | There seems to be some disagreement concerning CME arrival forecasts between NOAA and NASA. NOAA has pushed back the anticipated arrival time to late on 1/22 or early 1/23. According to Spaceweather.com, NASA Goddard is still projecting arrival at Earth for 1/21 @22:30 UTC. Even with a 7-hour margin of error they don't quite match up. Quoting: Hugh M Eye NOAA Enlil CME mdl: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] NOAA forecast: Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] NASA cygnet streamer: [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] From spaceweather.com: Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs). [link to www.spaceweather.com] This why I love solar-watching. There's so much uncertainty and disagreement among scientists and forecasters. NASA can predict where a tiny asteroid will be with amazing accuracy years in advance....but somethoing as large as a CME or solar activity in general defies all of their "inside-the-box" thinking. I may as well start making predictions based on some of theirs. Calling it now, G3. Or G0. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 9221078 Canada 01/21/2012 01:53 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 6459914 United States 01/21/2012 02:00 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | There seems to be some disagreement concerning CME arrival forecasts between NOAA and NASA. NOAA has pushed back the anticipated arrival time to late on 1/22 or early 1/23. According to Spaceweather.com, NASA Goddard is still projecting arrival at Earth for 1/21 @22:30 UTC. Even with a 7-hour margin of error they don't quite match up. Quoting: Hugh M Eye NOAA Enlil CME mdl: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] NOAA forecast: Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] NASA cygnet streamer: [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] From spaceweather.com: Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs). [link to www.spaceweather.com] This is why I love solar-watching. There's so much uncertainty and disagreement among scientists and forecasters. NASA can predict where a tiny asteroid will be with amazing accuracy years in advance....but somethoing as large as a CME or solar activity in general defies all of their "inside-the-box" thinking. stick with what NASA Goddard has said late tonight into early tomorrow UTC time there is NO WAY this CME will take 4-5 days to arrive Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
rosie80 User ID: 9100711 United States 01/21/2012 02:03 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Is the CME from January 19th piggy backing in on another CME? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9221078 Is that not what caused the Carrington Event? That is correct .. but I don't think they know the intensity of the two ejections .. or flares in themselves .. I read that and thought the same thing .. I will post the link that says there is two coming .. .... 22426221213 .... |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 4020946 United States 01/21/2012 02:05 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 6459914 United States 01/21/2012 02:06 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Is the CME from January 19th piggy backing in on another CME? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9221078 Is that not what caused the Carrington Event? well, yes and yes but may i add that this piggyback CME has happened many many times since the carrington event it happens ofter with multiple CME events within a short amount of time the carrington event was the perfect i guess we can say the perfect ejection direction of a massive CME that arrived after other had already arrived and crippled our magnetosphere Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 6459914 United States 01/21/2012 02:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Is the CME from January 19th piggy backing in on another CME? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9221078 Is that not what caused the Carrington Event? That is correct .. but I don't think they know the intensity of the two ejections .. or flares in themselves .. I read that and thought the same thing .. I will post the link that says there is two coming .. we had 3 a CME on the 16th, 18th and 19th the Jan 16th CME [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] the Jan 18th CME [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] the Jan 19th CME [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] we already seen the shock from the Jan 16th CME [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] it is unclear if the CME from the southern region on the 18th will give a glancing blow or not or if it will merge in space with the faster CME from the 19th though, this is what we expect will happen Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1312941 United States 01/21/2012 02:13 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |