Godlike Productions - Conspiracy Forum
Users Online Now: 1,850 (Who's On?)Visitors Today: 1,902,697
Pageviews Today: 2,351,562Threads Today: 509Posts Today: 8,670
04:11 PM


Rate this Thread

Absolute BS Crap Reasonable Nice Amazing
 

SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)

 
Starwind

User ID: 4546990
United States
01/21/2012 01:20 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
There seems to be some disagreement concerning CME arrival forecasts between NOAA and NASA. NOAA has pushed back the anticipated arrival time to late on 1/22 or early 1/23. According to Spaceweather.com, NASA Goddard is still projecting arrival at Earth for 1/21 @22:30 UTC. Even with a 7-hour margin of error they don't quite match up.
NOAA Enlil CME mdl:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA forecast:

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA cygnet streamer:
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

From spaceweather.com:

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs).
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

This why I love solar-watching. There's so much uncertainty and disagreement among scientists and forecasters. NASA can predict where a tiny asteroid will be with amazing accuracy years in advance....but somethoing as large as a CME or solar activity in general defies all of their "inside-the-box" thinking.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I may as well start making predictions based on some of theirs.

Calling it now, G3.

Or G0.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 9221078
Canada
01/21/2012 01:53 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Is the CME from January 19th piggy backing in on another CME?

Is that not what caused the Carrington Event?
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
United States
01/21/2012 02:00 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
There seems to be some disagreement concerning CME arrival forecasts between NOAA and NASA. NOAA has pushed back the anticipated arrival time to late on 1/22 or early 1/23. According to Spaceweather.com, NASA Goddard is still projecting arrival at Earth for 1/21 @22:30 UTC. Even with a 7-hour margin of error they don't quite match up.
NOAA Enlil CME mdl:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA forecast:

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA cygnet streamer:
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

From spaceweather.com:

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs).
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

This is why I love solar-watching. There's so much uncertainty and disagreement among scientists and forecasters. NASA can predict where a tiny asteroid will be with amazing accuracy years in advance....but somethoing as large as a CME or solar activity in general defies all of their "inside-the-box" thinking.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


stick with what NASA Goddard has said
late tonight into early tomorrow UTC time
there is NO WAY this CME will take 4-5 days to arrive
rosie80

User ID: 9100711
United States
01/21/2012 02:03 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Is the CME from January 19th piggy backing in on another CME?

Is that not what caused the Carrington Event?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9221078


That is correct .. but I don't think they know the intensity of the two ejections .. or flares in themselves .. I read that and thought the same thing .. I will post the link that says there is two coming ..
.... 22426221213 ....
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 4020946
United States
01/21/2012 02:05 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Don't have much knowledge on CME's or solar flares.. but could someone tell me a good estimate when it will hit? I'm in the Northeast U.S. and what are some of the possible effects from this CME in particular? Thanks in advance!

hf
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
United States
01/21/2012 02:06 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Is the CME from January 19th piggy backing in on another CME?

Is that not what caused the Carrington Event?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9221078


well, yes and yes
but may i add that this piggyback CME has happened many many times since the carrington event
it happens ofter with multiple CME events within a short amount of time
the carrington event was the perfect i guess we can say
the perfect ejection direction of a massive CME
that arrived after other had already arrived and crippled our magnetosphere
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
United States
01/21/2012 02:12 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Is the CME from January 19th piggy backing in on another CME?

Is that not what caused the Carrington Event?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9221078


That is correct .. but I don't think they know the intensity of the two ejections .. or flares in themselves .. I read that and thought the same thing .. I will post the link that says there is two coming ..
 Quoting: rosie80


we had 3
a CME on the 16th, 18th and 19th

the Jan 16th CME
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

the Jan 18th CME
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

the Jan 19th CME
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

we already seen the shock from the Jan 16th CME
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

it is unclear if the CME from the southern region on the 18th will give a glancing blow or not
or if it will merge in space with the faster CME from the 19th
though, this is what we expect will happen
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1312941
United States
01/21/2012 02:13 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Didn't NASA say the sun was entering a solar maximum or some type of cycle where we may expect more activity than usual?
Starwind

User ID: 4546990
United States
01/21/2012 02:21 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Didn't NASA say the sun was entering a solar maximum or some type of cycle where we may expect more activity than usual?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1312941


The sun has an 11-year cycle (give or take) and has been quiet. This cycles peak of activity is 2012/2013.

If you read into it further though there has been almost triple the amount of predicted sunspots already.

It's important to not ignore or take to heart the predictions by NASA/NOAA if that makes any sense.

Last Edited by Starwind on 01/21/2012 02:21 PM
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 6016379
United States
01/21/2012 02:27 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
There were two CMEs on the 19th within a couple of hours. Both had earth-directed elements (though they were in different general directions); but as the second was more powerful they overlapped and merged. These are the two seen on the Enlil model. More on this from the SOHO website:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Enlil CME model from NOAA:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Starwind

User ID: 4546990
United States
01/21/2012 02:35 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Starting to get some pressure now.
Luisport

User ID: 9273503
Portugal
01/21/2012 02:39 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
It's arriving! [link to www2.nict.go.jp]
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
United States
01/21/2012 02:39 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
It's arriving! [link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: Luisport


yup arriving now!
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
Luisport

User ID: 9273503
Portugal
01/21/2012 02:42 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
It's arriving! [link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: Luisport


yup arriving now!
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


How long do you think it will last?
zacksavage

User ID: 9186918
United States
01/21/2012 02:49 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
It's arriving! [link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: Luisport


yup arriving now!
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


cheers



Z
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
United States
01/21/2012 02:50 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
It's arriving! [link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: Luisport


yup arriving now!
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


How long do you think it will last?
 Quoting: Luisport


the very front is arriving, then it travels around back of us then in through the poles
super hard to tell how long, but on the blog i posted images of the HI2 where you can see the CME mass in space
you can get somewhat of an idea how long by looking at how much mass is in space
there is quite a bit
SheBear

User ID: 8520142
Australia
01/21/2012 02:51 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
6.2 offshore Chiapas, Mexico
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
United States
01/21/2012 02:59 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
It's arriving! [link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: Luisport


yup arriving now!
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


How long do you think it will last?
 Quoting: Luisport


the very front is arriving, then it travels around back of us then in through the poles
super hard to tell how long, but on the blog i posted images of the HI2 where you can see the CME mass in space
you can get somewhat of an idea how long by looking at how much mass is in space
there is quite a bit
 Quoting: NiNzrez


powergr3
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
United States
01/21/2012 03:02 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
There were two CMEs on the 19th within a couple of hours. Both had earth-directed elements (though they were in different general directions); but as the second was more powerful they overlapped and merged. These are the two seen on the Enlil model. More on this from the SOHO website:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Enlil CME model from NOAA:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


can you link me to the stereo a or b images that show 2 CMEs on the 19th that were hours apart?
im lost on this post :/

there was a very complex eruption around region 1402 that caused the main CME we are expecting
there was a double flare event, with a CME, and a filament collapse that left the solar disk around the same time that the CME did
these became one after ejection
but they were not hours apart
Luisport

User ID: 9273503
Portugal
01/21/2012 03:03 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
they have updated the above now showing a double CME impact [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 9288560
United Kingdom
01/21/2012 03:26 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Can any of the "experts" tell me why these two sites never truly corespond with each other, as I'm sure they must be generated from the same initial data sets.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Just interested to know.

whatever
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
United States
01/21/2012 03:36 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
they have updated the above now showing a double CME impact [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Luisport


hey, check out the density reading at 19:23
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

73.8
that was 1hr ago
right when the very front hit
this density spike does not show on the nict simulation
but it is there and does not show as a bad data sector

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 01/21/2012 03:37 PM
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 5795678
United States
01/21/2012 03:45 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
It is soo windy here were I live in Nevada I have not seen winds like this in a long time
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 6016379
United States
01/21/2012 03:52 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
There were two CMEs on the 19th within a couple of hours. Both had earth-directed elements (though they were in different general directions); but as the second was more powerful they overlapped and merged. These are the two seen on the Enlil model. More on this from the SOHO website:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Enlil CME model from NOAA:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


can you link me to the stereo a or b images that show 2 CMEs on the 19th that were hours apart?
im lost on this post :/

there was a very complex eruption around region 1402 that caused the main CME we are expecting
there was a double flare event, with a CME, and a filament collapse that left the solar disk around the same time that the CME did
these became one after ejection
but they were not hours apart
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I thought the SOHO link was pretty straight-forward. Did you watch the vid there ? Unfortunately they left out the time stamp.
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

SEEDS (Solar Eruptive Event Detection System) actually recorded 16 eruptive events on that date. If you scroll down to the 19th you'll see a red-highlighted notation-that's the full halo CME @15:12 utc from the M-flare. At 10:12 utc there was a partial-halo CME in the NW.

First CME at 10:12 utc (before the M-flare event):
[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Full-halo CME from M-flare begins at 15:12 utc:
[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

STEREO was missing a lot of data that day, but both CMEs can be seen on this STEREO B movie:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

SEEDS list of events:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

I noticed this on the 19th but was temporarily banned for reasons unknown and couldn't post. This quickly went down the memory hole after the big M-flare event.

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 01/21/2012 03:53 PM
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
United States
01/21/2012 04:22 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
the gloabl D map is lit up
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 6016379
United States
01/21/2012 04:36 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Close-up SDO movies of today's ejection from C2.4 flare at 1396 on the NW limb. Two different wavelength composites:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 9188085
United States
01/21/2012 04:45 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
hyperresonance theory is the key. Its all about vibration seismo.info << educate yourself and you will find its ALL about alignments . The mayans didn't have any special technology they just noticed events when the planets were aligned and other celestial objects were in certain sections of the sky. Look at the alignments that will occur this year and you have your answers.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1512633


applause


The thread about it :

[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
bloodyt3ch

User ID: 1472646
Lithuania
01/21/2012 04:49 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
the gloabl D map is lit up
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Back to normal in 6 minutes.
Religion is the biggest joke i've ever seen

- ME
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 2280033
United States
01/21/2012 05:01 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

about to see a big flare and possible CME? chart looks kinda like it did before the M3. hopefully we get something better sun

are there patterns in the flux monitor you can use to predict large flares?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1297814
Germany
01/21/2012 05:22 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Hi all,

MySolarAlerts-ChannelEruption,Prominece,SunspotUpdate--01/21​/12



[link to www.youtube.com]


Here is fresh closeUp west limb..we can see now another large prominence to the north



[link to www.youtube.com]


News