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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Luisport

User ID: 9273503
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01/21/2012 12:29 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Channel eruption west limb and old region 1396 flaring Around 10:00UTC we can see a CME on STEREO images this matchs with the channel eruption on the east limb.
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
We noticed another ejection around 12:28 and 14:00 UTC located off the east limb around old Region 1396.
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
TryToGetTheTruth

User ID: 1347342
Canada
01/21/2012 12:29 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm not sure what it is called but does anyone have a link for the absorption chart (maybe that's what it's called). The planet is laid out flat and I remember a big white spot over Japan before the big quake hit. TY:)
 Quoting: truz1980


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

is this what you want
Open mind required !

I am in SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO, CANADA
truz1980

User ID: 5978150
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01/21/2012 12:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm not sure what it is called but does anyone have a link for the absorption chart (maybe that's what it's called). The planet is laid out flat and I remember a big white spot over Japan before the big quake hit. TY:)
 Quoting: truz1980


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

is this what you want
 Quoting: TryToGetTheTruth


Yes thank you very muchhf
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 9281394
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01/21/2012 12:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I noticed another bump in the ACE proton data. The 6-hour plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

And 24-hour plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
United States
01/21/2012 01:06 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm not sure what it is called but does anyone have a link for the absorption chart (maybe that's what it's called). The planet is laid out flat and I remember a big white spot over Japan before the big quake hit. TY:)
 Quoting: truz1980


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
we have it to the left hand side on our blog :)
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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NiNzrez (OP)

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01/21/2012 01:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A CME from the western limb is seen on SOHO Cor 2 images:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9281394


good eye
this is from a small CME produced on the northwest area of the solar disk
this CME caused the filament to its east to become unstable
im watching it now to see if this filament lifts off
here you can see this in the top right area
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Channel eruption west limb and old region 1396 flaring Around 10:00UTC we can see a CME on STEREO images this matchs with the channel eruption on the east limb.
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
We noticed another ejection around 12:28 and 14:00 UTC located off the east limb around old Region 1396.
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


we will update on the filament condition soon :)
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
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01/21/2012 01:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I noticed another bump in the ACE proton data. The 6-hour plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

And 24-hour plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9281394


yup sure was
remember, there was 3 CMEs
one on the 16th, a southern one on the 18th, then the big one on the 19th
all with dif directions of ejection
we all need to remember what we have seen the "3 cme's" do in the past
cause this is not the 1st time we have see this in the past year
the last. and faster CME catches the ones in front of it
we see a bit of shock seen on the nict
thats from the very front fluff
then the bulk arrives
this is what we shall watch for on the nict today
1. slight disturbances
2.leading to a bit more disturbance after some time
3. the bulk of the main CME to arrive
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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Hugh M Eye

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01/21/2012 01:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There seems to be some disagreement concerning CME arrival forecasts between NOAA and NASA. NOAA has pushed back the anticipated arrival time to late on 1/22 or early 1/23. According to Spaceweather.com, NASA Goddard is still projecting arrival at Earth for 1/21 @22:30 UTC. Even with a 7-hour margin of error they don't quite match up.
NOAA Enlil CME mdl:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA forecast:

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA cygnet streamer:
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

From spaceweather.com:

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs).
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

This is why I love solar-watching. There's so much uncertainty and disagreement among scientists and forecasters. NASA can predict where a tiny asteroid will be with amazing accuracy years in advance....but somethoing as large as a CME or solar activity in general defies all of their "inside-the-box" thinking.

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 01/21/2012 01:20 PM
Starwind

User ID: 4546990
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01/21/2012 01:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There seems to be some disagreement concerning CME arrival forecasts between NOAA and NASA. NOAA has pushed back the anticipated arrival time to late on 1/22 or early 1/23. According to Spaceweather.com, NASA Goddard is still projecting arrival at Earth for 1/21 @22:30 UTC. Even with a 7-hour margin of error they don't quite match up.
NOAA Enlil CME mdl:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA forecast:

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA cygnet streamer:
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

From spaceweather.com:

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs).
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

This why I love solar-watching. There's so much uncertainty and disagreement among scientists and forecasters. NASA can predict where a tiny asteroid will be with amazing accuracy years in advance....but somethoing as large as a CME or solar activity in general defies all of their "inside-the-box" thinking.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I may as well start making predictions based on some of theirs.

Calling it now, G3.

Or G0.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 9221078
Canada
01/21/2012 01:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is the CME from January 19th piggy backing in on another CME?

Is that not what caused the Carrington Event?
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
United States
01/21/2012 02:00 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There seems to be some disagreement concerning CME arrival forecasts between NOAA and NASA. NOAA has pushed back the anticipated arrival time to late on 1/22 or early 1/23. According to Spaceweather.com, NASA Goddard is still projecting arrival at Earth for 1/21 @22:30 UTC. Even with a 7-hour margin of error they don't quite match up.
NOAA Enlil CME mdl:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA forecast:

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA cygnet streamer:
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

From spaceweather.com:

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs).
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

This is why I love solar-watching. There's so much uncertainty and disagreement among scientists and forecasters. NASA can predict where a tiny asteroid will be with amazing accuracy years in advance....but somethoing as large as a CME or solar activity in general defies all of their "inside-the-box" thinking.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


stick with what NASA Goddard has said
late tonight into early tomorrow UTC time
there is NO WAY this CME will take 4-5 days to arrive
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
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rosie80

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01/21/2012 02:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is the CME from January 19th piggy backing in on another CME?

Is that not what caused the Carrington Event?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9221078


That is correct .. but I don't think they know the intensity of the two ejections .. or flares in themselves .. I read that and thought the same thing .. I will post the link that says there is two coming ..
.... 22426221213 ....
Anonymous Coward
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01/21/2012 02:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Don't have much knowledge on CME's or solar flares.. but could someone tell me a good estimate when it will hit? I'm in the Northeast U.S. and what are some of the possible effects from this CME in particular? Thanks in advance!

hf
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/21/2012 02:06 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is the CME from January 19th piggy backing in on another CME?

Is that not what caused the Carrington Event?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9221078


well, yes and yes
but may i add that this piggyback CME has happened many many times since the carrington event
it happens ofter with multiple CME events within a short amount of time
the carrington event was the perfect i guess we can say
the perfect ejection direction of a massive CME
that arrived after other had already arrived and crippled our magnetosphere
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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NiNzrez (OP)

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01/21/2012 02:12 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is the CME from January 19th piggy backing in on another CME?

Is that not what caused the Carrington Event?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9221078


That is correct .. but I don't think they know the intensity of the two ejections .. or flares in themselves .. I read that and thought the same thing .. I will post the link that says there is two coming ..
 Quoting: rosie80


we had 3
a CME on the 16th, 18th and 19th

the Jan 16th CME
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

the Jan 18th CME
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

the Jan 19th CME
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

we already seen the shock from the Jan 16th CME
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

it is unclear if the CME from the southern region on the 18th will give a glancing blow or not
or if it will merge in space with the faster CME from the 19th
though, this is what we expect will happen
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1312941
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01/21/2012 02:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Didn't NASA say the sun was entering a solar maximum or some type of cycle where we may expect more activity than usual?
Starwind

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01/21/2012 02:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Didn't NASA say the sun was entering a solar maximum or some type of cycle where we may expect more activity than usual?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1312941


The sun has an 11-year cycle (give or take) and has been quiet. This cycles peak of activity is 2012/2013.

If you read into it further though there has been almost triple the amount of predicted sunspots already.

It's important to not ignore or take to heart the predictions by NASA/NOAA if that makes any sense.

Last Edited by Starwind on 01/21/2012 02:21 PM
Hugh M Eye

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01/21/2012 02:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There were two CMEs on the 19th within a couple of hours. Both had earth-directed elements (though they were in different general directions); but as the second was more powerful they overlapped and merged. These are the two seen on the Enlil model. More on this from the SOHO website:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Enlil CME model from NOAA:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Starwind

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01/21/2012 02:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Starting to get some pressure now.
Luisport

User ID: 9273503
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01/21/2012 02:39 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It's arriving! [link to www2.nict.go.jp]
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/21/2012 02:39 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It's arriving! [link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: Luisport


yup arriving now!
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
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Luisport

User ID: 9273503
Portugal
01/21/2012 02:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It's arriving! [link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: Luisport


yup arriving now!
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


How long do you think it will last?
zacksavage
~~Unbound~~

User ID: 9186918
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01/21/2012 02:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It's arriving! [link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: Luisport


yup arriving now!
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


cheers



Z
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/21/2012 02:50 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It's arriving! [link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: Luisport


yup arriving now!
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


How long do you think it will last?
 Quoting: Luisport


the very front is arriving, then it travels around back of us then in through the poles
super hard to tell how long, but on the blog i posted images of the HI2 where you can see the CME mass in space
you can get somewhat of an idea how long by looking at how much mass is in space
there is quite a bit
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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SheBear

User ID: 8520142
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01/21/2012 02:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
6.2 offshore Chiapas, Mexico
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
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01/21/2012 02:59 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It's arriving! [link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: Luisport


yup arriving now!
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


How long do you think it will last?
 Quoting: Luisport


the very front is arriving, then it travels around back of us then in through the poles
super hard to tell how long, but on the blog i posted images of the HI2 where you can see the CME mass in space
you can get somewhat of an idea how long by looking at how much mass is in space
there is quite a bit
 Quoting: NiNzrez


powergr3
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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NiNzrez (OP)

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01/21/2012 03:02 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There were two CMEs on the 19th within a couple of hours. Both had earth-directed elements (though they were in different general directions); but as the second was more powerful they overlapped and merged. These are the two seen on the Enlil model. More on this from the SOHO website:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Enlil CME model from NOAA:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


can you link me to the stereo a or b images that show 2 CMEs on the 19th that were hours apart?
im lost on this post :/

there was a very complex eruption around region 1402 that caused the main CME we are expecting
there was a double flare event, with a CME, and a filament collapse that left the solar disk around the same time that the CME did
these became one after ejection
but they were not hours apart
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
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Luisport

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01/21/2012 03:03 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
they have updated the above now showing a double CME impact [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 9288560
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01/21/2012 03:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Can any of the "experts" tell me why these two sites never truly corespond with each other, as I'm sure they must be generated from the same initial data sets.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Just interested to know.

whatever
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/21/2012 03:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
they have updated the above now showing a double CME impact [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Luisport


hey, check out the density reading at 19:23
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

73.8
that was 1hr ago
right when the very front hit
this density spike does not show on the nict simulation
but it is there and does not show as a bad data sector

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 01/21/2012 03:37 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
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