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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
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01/21/2012 03:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
they have updated the above now showing a double CME impact [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Luisport


hey, check out the density reading at 19:23
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

73.8
that was 1hr ago
right when the very front hit
this density spike does not show on the nict simulation
but it is there and does not show as a bad data sector

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 01/21/2012 03:37 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 5795678
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01/21/2012 03:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It is soo windy here were I live in Nevada I have not seen winds like this in a long time
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 6016379
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01/21/2012 03:52 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There were two CMEs on the 19th within a couple of hours. Both had earth-directed elements (though they were in different general directions); but as the second was more powerful they overlapped and merged. These are the two seen on the Enlil model. More on this from the SOHO website:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Enlil CME model from NOAA:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


can you link me to the stereo a or b images that show 2 CMEs on the 19th that were hours apart?
im lost on this post :/

there was a very complex eruption around region 1402 that caused the main CME we are expecting
there was a double flare event, with a CME, and a filament collapse that left the solar disk around the same time that the CME did
these became one after ejection
but they were not hours apart
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I thought the SOHO link was pretty straight-forward. Did you watch the vid there ? Unfortunately they left out the time stamp.
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

SEEDS (Solar Eruptive Event Detection System) actually recorded 16 eruptive events on that date. If you scroll down to the 19th you'll see a red-highlighted notation-that's the full halo CME @15:12 utc from the M-flare. At 10:12 utc there was a partial-halo CME in the NW.

First CME at 10:12 utc (before the M-flare event):
[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Full-halo CME from M-flare begins at 15:12 utc:
[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

STEREO was missing a lot of data that day, but both CMEs can be seen on this STEREO B movie:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

SEEDS list of events:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

I noticed this on the 19th but was temporarily banned for reasons unknown and couldn't post. This quickly went down the memory hole after the big M-flare event.

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 01/21/2012 03:53 PM
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
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01/21/2012 04:22 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the gloabl D map is lit up
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 6016379
United States
01/21/2012 04:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Close-up SDO movies of today's ejection from C2.4 flare at 1396 on the NW limb. Two different wavelength composites:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 9188085
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01/21/2012 04:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hyperresonance theory is the key. Its all about vibration seismo.info << educate yourself and you will find its ALL about alignments . The mayans didn't have any special technology they just noticed events when the planets were aligned and other celestial objects were in certain sections of the sky. Look at the alignments that will occur this year and you have your answers.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1512633


applause


The thread about it :

[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
bloodyt3ch

User ID: 1472646
Lithuania
01/21/2012 04:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the gloabl D map is lit up
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Back to normal in 6 minutes.
Religion is the biggest joke i've ever seen

- ME
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 2280033
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01/21/2012 05:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

about to see a big flare and possible CME? chart looks kinda like it did before the M3. hopefully we get something better sun

are there patterns in the flux monitor you can use to predict large flares?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1297814
Germany
01/21/2012 05:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi all,

MySolarAlerts-ChannelEruption,Prominece,SunspotUpdate--01/21​/12



[link to www.youtube.com]


Here is fresh closeUp west limb..we can see now another large prominence to the north



[link to www.youtube.com]
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 6459914
United States
01/21/2012 05:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the gloabl D map is lit up
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Back to normal in 6 minutes.
 Quoting: bloodyt3ch


yeah a bit crazy to see it change back to normal so fast
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1297814
Germany
01/21/2012 06:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2012


Solar activity was low. Isolated low-level C-class
flares were observed. Plage Region 1396 (N25W86) produced a C1 x-ray
flare at 20/2112Z associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated
shock velocity 945 km/s) and a non-Earth-directed coronal mass
ejection (CME)
. Region 1402 (N29W11) produced a long-duration C1 at
20/2333Z associated with a weak Type IV radio sweep. Region 1402
showed gradual trailer spot decay during the period and was
classified as a Cko group with a beta magnetic configuration. Region

1401 (N17W14) also showed gradual trailer spot decay and was
classified as an Ehi group with a beta magnetic classification. New
Regions 1408 (N08E69) and 1409 (N16E50) were numbered. Both were
small and simply-structured.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Hello 1408 and 1409 :)
leaner
User ID: 8531500
United States
01/21/2012 06:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
still thinking at right angles...


Mercury is considered the 'messenger of the Gods', right?

-spinning around and around so fast about Sol.
is this relevant in the context of planetary magnetic coupling?

they might have been on to a thing or two back then....
El Quisqueyano
Chief Caonabo

User ID: 9148797
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01/21/2012 06:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2012


Solar activity was low. Isolated low-level C-class
flares were observed. Plage Region 1396 (N25W86) produced a C1 x-ray
flare at 20/2112Z associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated
shock velocity 945 km/s) and a non-Earth-directed coronal mass
ejection (CME)
. Region 1402 (N29W11) produced a long-duration C1 at
20/2333Z associated with a weak Type IV radio sweep. Region 1402
showed gradual trailer spot decay during the period and was
classified as a Cko group with a beta magnetic configuration. Region

1401 (N17W14) also showed gradual trailer spot decay and was
classified as an Ehi group with a beta magnetic classification. New
Regions 1408 (N08E69) and 1409 (N16E50) were numbered. Both were
small and simply-structured.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Hello 1408 and 1409 :)
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Hey Alfred. Long time no see. Good to see you back.

Namaste.
[link to skreened.com]

The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who in the name of charity and good will shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers! And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee!" Ezekiel 25:17

"Worst come to worst, my PEOPLES come first" Dilated Peoples
truz1980

User ID: 5978150
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01/21/2012 08:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So I was wondering if this is normal looking?

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1289696
United States
01/21/2012 08:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So I was wondering if this is normal looking?

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: truz1980


Nict link is not working.
old guard

User ID: 1405158
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01/21/2012 08:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A grand welcome IWTB
I've never seen this

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
old guard

User ID: 1405158
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01/21/2012 08:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Try again it;s working
truz1980

User ID: 5978150
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01/21/2012 08:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So now even more confused is it normal or not normal, and is nict working? Ty:)
Anonymous Coward
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01/21/2012 08:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Did it already hit?
old guard

User ID: 1405158
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01/21/2012 08:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This is really strange
learner
User ID: 8531500
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01/21/2012 08:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
so more scouting around trying to wrap my mind around this stuff.

i came across this site :

[link to thewatchers.adorraeli.com]

which had some info/commentary on recent solar activity. Somewhat down the page was a 10 day forecast/model (presented as a flash movie) for CME trajectories.

a still of the one they had posted:

[link to www.bigupload.com]

problem is: this thing starts as of today and i can't find the same thing but starting on the 19th.

any of u guyz know what the sauce is on this model? who makes it? where its posted?

u think the tri-spoked spiral field lines whown in the model is close to the real thing? How do they know that i wonder?


notice how the CME path is curved(can only see on the site)?
Pap
User ID: 1338942
Poland
01/21/2012 08:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Are You talking about 'Magnetic Field' anomaly :D?
learner
User ID: 8531500
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01/21/2012 08:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
notice how the CME path is curved(can only see on the site)?

 Quoting: learner 8531500


and it appears to hit Mars. i wonder if all CME's hit planets?
truz1980

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01/21/2012 08:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Are You talking about 'Magnetic Field' anomaly :D?
 Quoting: Pap 1338942


Pretty sure we are from this site.

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
truz1980

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01/21/2012 08:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)


Last Edited by Starlite80 on 01/21/2012 09:00 PM
truz1980

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01/21/2012 08:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)


Last Edited by Starlite80 on 01/21/2012 08:59 PM
Pap
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Poland
01/21/2012 08:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ok ok :D i get it :D
truz1980

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01/21/2012 08:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ok ok :D i get it :D
 Quoting: Pap 1338942


Sorry about that not sure why is posted 3 times.
Hugh M Eye

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01/21/2012 09:00 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
so more scouting around trying to wrap my mind around this stuff.

i came across this site :

[link to thewatchers.adorraeli.com]

which had some info/commentary on recent solar activity. Somewhat down the page was a 10 day forecast/model (presented as a flash movie) for CME trajectories.

a still of the one they had posted:

[link to www.bigupload.com]

problem is: this thing starts as of today and i can't find the same thing but starting on the 19th.

any of u guyz know what the sauce is on this model? who makes it? where its posted?

u think the tri-spoked spiral field lines whown in the model is close to the real thing? How do they know that i wonder?


notice how the CME path is curved(can only see on the site)?
 Quoting: learner 8531500

That's one of the cygnet models from NASA's integrated Space Weather Analysis System. Tons of info to wade through there...enjoy.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Anyway here's the model for the CME(s) from the 19th.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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01/21/2012 09:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sure....it was a bird.....


[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]



Vehicle Incident in Other on Friday, 20 January, 2012 at 16:42 (04:42 PM) UTC.



A Japanese Coastguard patrol plane narrowly avoided mid-air disaster when it was hit by an albatross. The Bombardier DHC8-315 was flying 300 metres over the East China Sea when the bird smashed a one-metre wide hole in the aircraft. But despite the dead bird being lodged in the plane’s nose, the pilot was able to fly for another hour on to his destination in Ishigaki, near Taiwan. Nine crew members were on board the three-hour flight from Naha, on the Pacific Island of Okinawa

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