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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
tomasgod1

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01/23/2012 02:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Our "footpoint" location was very near the flare location today, so we have great connectivity. This is partially responsible for the SEP event that is in progress.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Look at UMA Proton flux forcast, and play the cygnet.
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Starwind

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01/23/2012 02:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So a rough 19 hours, with 3 hours and change already over with?

So a rough estimate is tomorrow around 6/6:30 EST? That seems a little soon.

I think thats wrong, i hate math.

Last Edited by Starwind on 01/23/2012 02:20 AM
JustOneGuy

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01/23/2012 02:24 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks Starwind,
My Math Isn't As Fast As Usual (Or Possibly As
Accurate As Usual Either) Our Figures Are Consistent.
Was Actually Thinking About This Night Before Last,
Got The Following:

With A Sun/Earth AVERAGE Distance (Per Wiki) of
92.956 x 10(6) Miles Then After Appropriate Conversions

500 Km/s >> ~83 Hrs Transit
1000 Km/s >> ~41 Hrs "
1500 Km/s >> ~28 " "
2000 Km/s >> ~21 " "
2500 Km/s >> ~17 " "
3500 Km/s >> ~12 " "


Incidentally, I Apologize To All For Simply Jumping A'board
And Monopolizing The Blog...I Just Happened To Be Going Through
The Entirety Of EXACTLY This Prior To THIS Event. Again Apologies.
...The Tree Of Liberty Must From Time To Time Be Refreshed With The Blood Of Patriots And Tyrants......
Starwind

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01/23/2012 02:26 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Yeah, so assuming the wave is traveling 2200km/s that means we are set to be hit in about... 15 1/2 hours from this post.

That doesn't sound like a good thing.
tomasgod1

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01/23/2012 02:27 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So a rough 19 hours, with 3 hours and change already over with?

So a rough estimate is tomorrow around 6/6:30 EST? That seems a little soon.

I think thats wrong, i hate math.
 Quoting: Starwind


Actually that sounds correct. The CME may not keep traveling at the same speed though. There are magnetic forces that influence its speed, but it will still be arriving very quickly.
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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
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tomasgod1

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01/23/2012 02:30 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks Starwind,
My Math Isn't As Fast As Usual (Or Possibly As
Accurate As Usual Either) Our Figures Are Consistent.
Was Actually Thinking About This Night Before Last,
Got The Following:

With A Sun/Earth AVERAGE Distance (Per Wiki) of
92.956 x 10(6) Miles Then After Appropriate Conversions

500 Km/s >> ~83 Hrs Transit
1000 Km/s >> ~41 Hrs "
1500 Km/s >> ~28 " "
2000 Km/s >> ~21 " "
2500 Km/s >> ~17 " "
3500 Km/s >> ~12 " "


Incidentally, I Apologize To All For Simply Jumping A'board
And Monopolizing The Blog...I Just Happened To Be Going Through
The Entirety Of EXACTLY This Prior To THIS Event. Again Apologies.
 Quoting: JustOneGuy


Noneed to appologize, you are more than welcome to come right on in and post away. :)
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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
tomasgod1

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01/23/2012 02:35 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX2
Serial Number: 47
Issue Time: 2012 Jan 23 0644 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Jan 23 0630 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
tomasgod1

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01/23/2012 02:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ACE High Energy Protons are finally starting to fall back down.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
JustOneGuy

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01/23/2012 02:39 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Vielen Danke Herr TomasGod,
...Confuscius Say "When On New Turf, Best To
Apologize First Than Get Shot Later...."
...The Tree Of Liberty Must From Time To Time Be Refreshed With The Blood Of Patriots And Tyrants......
joinca

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01/23/2012 02:55 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The global Xray flux has lots of RED now.
Can someone post an image of it?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
11 Red attenuation bars maxed out and counting.

popcorn popcorn

Last Edited by joinca on 01/23/2012 03:04 AM
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
tomasgod1

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01/23/2012 03:02 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NASA Goddard has issued the predicted arrival and duration for this latest CME as follows.

Event Issue Date: 2012-01-23 06:26:50.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-01-24 14:18:19.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 7 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.6 Re


Tue, 24 Jan 2012 14:18:19 UTC
Tue, 24 Jan 2012 22:18:19 UTC


[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Time conversion = Tue, 24 Jan 2012 9:18AM EST
through Tue, 24 Jan 2012 5:19PM EST
+ or - 6 hrs.

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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
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tomasgod1

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01/23/2012 03:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The global Xray flux has lots of RED now.
Can someone post an image of it?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
11 Red attenuation bars maxed out and counting.

popcorn popcorn
 Quoting: joinca


Here ya go. It may take a while before it shows up.



sepgdsat





kittypop
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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
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tomasgod1

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01/23/2012 03:13 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ACE HE Protons on the rise again..

Looks like a S3 Solar Radiation Storm for us.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 01/23/2012 03:16 AM
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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
joinca

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01/23/2012 03:16 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks Tomas!! It is late here on the west coast.
sleep time
popcorn

Last Edited by joinca on 01/23/2012 03:16 AM
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
tomasgod1

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01/23/2012 03:17 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks Tomas!! It is late here on the west coast.
sleep time
popcorn
 Quoting: joinca


You are welcome! It is late hear too central time, but I am wrestless.
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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
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Anonymous Coward
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01/23/2012 03:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey, have you ever felt much better at outdoor when proton is extremely high(above 100)?
As if it energizes and relaxes us?
Just a thought.
Starwind

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01/23/2012 03:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
How long does it take for the magnetosphere to recover from a strong hit?

I'm curious how that fast CME will effect us, but I don't know if the hit we got today will last that long. How long do they usually last and what specific measure is it that makes the dual hit so bad? (Carrington)
Anonymous Coward
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01/23/2012 03:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?t​imestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261
hiding
Anonymous Coward
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01/23/2012 03:24 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
JustOneGuy

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01/23/2012 03:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
TG,
Just Checked The JSOC HMI Color Magnetogram/
Doppler Pics...1402 Is Developing ADDITINAL
High Gradient Area's As Are 1407 (Haven't
Previously Seen Any Such On It To Date) Also
The Spot (Far) Trailing 1401 IS Showing Same
...These Things Seem To Be Reinforcing Each
Other By Proximity. Thoughts?
...The Tree Of Liberty Must From Time To Time Be Refreshed With The Blood Of Patriots And Tyrants......
Anonymous Coward
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01/23/2012 03:54 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
bump
Anonymous Coward
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01/23/2012 03:55 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
tomasgod1

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01/23/2012 04:04 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
TG,
Just Checked The JSOC HMI Color Magnetogram/
Doppler Pics...1402 Is Developing ADDITINAL
High Gradient Area's As Are 1407 (Haven't
Previously Seen Any Such On It To Date) Also
The Spot (Far) Trailing 1401 IS Showing Same
...These Things Seem To Be Reinforcing Each
Other By Proximity. Thoughts?
 Quoting: JustOneGuy


We saw a lot of interaction today between the various Sunspot Regions. When 1402 flared with that M8.7 there was a large CME that can be seen being released from between both 1401 and 1402. Yesterday we noticed a lot of magnetic interaction between the two regions. At the same time 1405, just off to the left of these, flared and released a small CME while this LDE was still occuring. New Region 1408 flared and released a CME and a small flare can be seen coming from a yet not numberd Sunspot that is rotating in off of the eastern limb to the south of 1408. All of this occured during the LDE event today. I zoomed in on the various Sunspot Regions in this video of SDO 304 during the event.



Here is a video from yesterday of some of the magnetic interaction between Sunspot Regions 1402, 1401.



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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
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tomasgod1

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01/23/2012 04:24 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We are now at a level 3 Solar Radiation Storm.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX3
Serial Number: 24
Issue Time: 2012 Jan 23 0911 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Jan 23 0855 UTC
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
_______

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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
JustOneGuy

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01/23/2012 04:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks TG,
1401 Has Been Closing Up The Gap Between Itself And
1407 (Visibly) For A Few Days As I Have Watched...A Shame
We Don't Have The Tech To Monitor Near Subsurface Magnetic's
We See The Spots At The Surface But Cannot Even Guess At The
Interactions Occurring Below. Anywho, My Lids Are Struggling
To Stay Open...Am Also Midwestern So It's Rather Late (As You
Already Know)...Schlaffen Sie Gut!...When You Finally Get There! Guten Nacht Alles.
...The Tree Of Liberty Must From Time To Time Be Refreshed With The Blood Of Patriots And Tyrants......
JustOneGuy

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01/23/2012 04:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Shoot, Just As I Was About To Go Winky!!

Latest From The NOAA Logs,

2012 01 23 0940 55949 34800 2.48e+03 1.91e+03 1.39e+03 2.41e+02 4.90e+01 1.71e+00 2.60e+03 1.33e-01 -1.00e+05

1390+241+49+1.7=1681 p/sec/sr

Oh My......

Last Edited by JustOneGuy on 01/23/2012 05:14 AM
...The Tree Of Liberty Must From Time To Time Be Refreshed With The Blood Of Patriots And Tyrants......
Isis7
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01/23/2012 05:29 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hiding
Anonymous Coward
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01/23/2012 05:35 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
click on lasco c2 and last 25 or so images.....been a while since I've seen that!
[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]
SheBear

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01/23/2012 05:43 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sorry I might have missed this info in the posts...How long was this event?
JustOneGuy

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01/23/2012 05:46 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AC,
The Saturation "Snow"?

Last Edited by JustOneGuy on 01/23/2012 05:52 AM
...The Tree Of Liberty Must From Time To Time Be Refreshed With The Blood Of Patriots And Tyrants......