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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

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02/09/2012 08:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
:cme2/09:

A large and violent eruption most likely from a large filament near the eastern limb. On some of the SDO composite movies a huge shockwave or solar-tsunami can be seen rolling almost 60 degrees in from the limb. I can't rule out the possibility of a major flare from somewhere beyond the limb, but a giant filament can be seen flying off in some images.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Mauna Loa H-alpha movie loop:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Latest STEREO B image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

If you go to the SDO movie-maker start the time about 20:00 for 2/09. Try the second of the three composite images and you'll see the tsunami-wave effect (a still image doesn't do it justice).

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
explosionhiding
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2012 09:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
60 degrees as in 60 degrees west longitude?
Hugh M Eye

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02/09/2012 09:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WOW. Beautiful SDO close-up movies of fantastic filament eruption

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

Unfortunately the movie ends before the shock-waves can be seen. Probably the waves were caused by copious amounts of plasma raining back to the surface.
:erupt2/09:
Hugh M Eye

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02/09/2012 09:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
60 degrees as in 60 degrees west longitude?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8707165


I meant ripples seen nearly 60 degrees from the point of eruption...near 30 degrees east longitude.
shenue

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02/10/2012 08:58 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good Morning
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
NiNzrez (OP)

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02/10/2012 10:30 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we have a CME seen coming from the area just to the west of southern sunspot region 1416
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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FyreStorm

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02/10/2012 10:42 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone
Mindless Baseball Entertainment
[link to www.cheaprooftoptickets.com]

If you need any web work done
[link to www.intelligentdynamicsllc.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/10/2012 11:05 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This is strange. Don't believe I've ever seen a sun glare warning on a traffic report before.

Thread: THE SUN HAS NEVER BEEN THIS LUMINOUS - "Sun Glare Warning" NJ Traffic Report
Hugh M Eye

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02/10/2012 12:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we have a CME seen coming from the area just to the west of southern sunspot region 1416
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Good catch, NIN. I can't seem to find any flare or filaments in that region responsible for the eruption. Perhaps it's one of those "stealth" CMEs. Sometimes vacant or empty filament channels erupt for reasons no one quite understands yet.

"The problem is that whatever is causing these stealth events is beyond what we can see with telescopes we have now," said Alexei Pevtsov of the National Solar Observatory in Sunspot, NM.

[link to www.nso.edu]

Earlier there was another giant filament eruption on the far northwest limb.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

That event was followed by a powerful flare from beyond the west limb at region 1410. GOES X-ray flux recorded it as a C1.1, but it has all the earmarks of at least an M-flare.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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02/10/2012 01:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wtf
anyone see the object incoming on lasco3 at the 8oclock position
Hugh M Eye

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02/10/2012 01:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wtf
anyone see the object incoming on lasco3 at the 8oclock position
 Quoting: ~Jay~


I think that's a reflection of Venus off the armature that holds the occulting disk. It's not tracking with the background stars, so I ruled out a supernova. We'll know for sure if it moves away from the occulter arm.

[link to www.theplanetstoday.com]

[link to secchi.nrl.navy.mil]

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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02/10/2012 02:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wtf
anyone see the object incoming on lasco3 at the 8oclock position
 Quoting: ~Jay~


I think that's a reflection of Venus off the armature that holds the occulting disk. It's not tracking with the background stars, so I ruled out a supernova. We'll know for sure if it moves away from the occulter arm.

[link to www.theplanetstoday.com]

[link to secchi.nrl.navy.mil]

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Strangely, Mercury has appeared for one frame in the C3 images and disappeared again. Most likely the reflection and blooming pixels are from Mercury, not Venus. The apparition and disappearance of Mercury is probably due to SOHO's orbit going retrograde...just a guess.

[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]
Hugh M Eye

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02/10/2012 03:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Previously mentioned prominence eruption.
:prom2/10:

Beyond-the-limb flare from 1410.
:limbflare:
Hugh M Eye

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02/10/2012 03:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SDO close-up composite movie of beyond-the-limb flare from region 1410:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
El Quisqueyano

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02/10/2012 04:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Significant earthquake precursor signal detected on 02/10/12 at 1900utc/1400est. Possible 6+.

Radio Direction Finder has signal coming in East of France from somewhere out in the Northern, Mid to Southern portions of the Pacific plate to Alaska, Canada and Chile.


All who live anywhere in the vicinity of this line trajectory should be wary next 5 hours. Have escape plan ready and seek open terrain in the event of felt tremor. Secure most of your heavy objects and belongings around your home.


Namaste,

Hopefully I am wrong. Or it hits an unpopulated area.
Japan is also a likely target. Be wary.
Anonymous Coward
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02/10/2012 04:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CME
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
Luisport

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02/10/2012 04:24 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


Earth directed?
Hugh M Eye

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02/10/2012 04:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


Earth directed?
 Quoting: Luisport


Possibly geo-effective, though it's too soon to be sure. Yet another large filament has lifted off in the northeast solar quadrant.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

STEREO Ahead movie:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Behind image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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02/10/2012 07:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's a very good chance that this last CME will be geo-effective. The filament eruption was Earth-facing and produced a very long two-ribbon flare seen in the SDO images taken approximately 30 mins. apart.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Ahead image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Behind image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

explosionahhhabomb
Starwind

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02/10/2012 07:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's a very good chance that this last CME will be geo-effective. The filament eruption was Earth-facing and produced a very long two-ribbon flare seen in the SDO images taken approximately 30 mins. apart.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Ahead image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Behind image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

explosionahhhabomb
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I guess we start looking for hit predictions then.

Also 1416 has been developing nicely.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

getting meaner looking as it points at us.
Hugh M Eye

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02/10/2012 08:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's a very good chance that this last CME will be geo-effective. The filament eruption was Earth-facing and produced a very long two-ribbon flare seen in the SDO images taken approximately 30 mins. apart.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Ahead image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Behind image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

explosionahhhabomb
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I guess we start looking for hit predictions then.

Also 1416 has been developing nicely.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

getting meaner looking as it points at us.
 Quoting: Starwind

Thanks, Starwind, I was just thinking the same thing. Region 1416 is one of the fastest-growing sunspot groups I've seen. It's produced a steady drumbeat of B-flares; but as it turns facing Earth for the next 4-5 days, I think we'll soon see some more powerful flares.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Also, the remnants of 1401 & X-Boy 1402 are due back any time now.
old guard

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02/10/2012 08:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I still think it's odd that we don't have more sunspots.peace
Starwind

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02/10/2012 09:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's a very good chance that this last CME will be geo-effective. The filament eruption was Earth-facing and produced a very long two-ribbon flare seen in the SDO images taken approximately 30 mins. apart.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Ahead image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Behind image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

explosionahhhabomb
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I guess we start looking for hit predictions then.

Also 1416 has been developing nicely.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

getting meaner looking as it points at us.
 Quoting: Starwind

Thanks, Starwind, I was just thinking the same thing. Region 1416 is one of the fastest-growing sunspot groups I've seen. It's produced a steady drumbeat of B-flares; but as it turns facing Earth for the next 4-5 days, I think we'll soon see some more powerful flares.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Also, the remnants of 1401 & X-Boy 1402 are due back any time now.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


1402 is still going? I remember reading if it made a complete transit that would make it an odd sunspot as they don't typically last that long.

Isn't that the one that gave us the square hit last month?
Hugh M Eye

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02/10/2012 09:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1402 is still going?

1402 gave us the M8, the X1, and the two proton storms. We should see what's left of it in the next day or two. Although it looks decreased, it can be seen as the white area near 90 degrees east in this Heliographic map.

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 02/10/2012 10:05 PM
NiNzrez (OP)

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02/10/2012 10:34 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wtf
anyone see the object incoming on lasco3 at the 8oclock position
 Quoting: ~Jay~


just saw that
wow have to look into this one
we also have a filament eruption in the northern region of the sun
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Hugh M Eye

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02/10/2012 10:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NASA model shows CME hitting Earth (somewhat off-center) late on the 13th.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

SEEDS movie of partial halo Earthbound CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

:cme2/10:
hidingtomatohiding
NiNzrez (OP)

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02/10/2012 10:44 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wtf
anyone see the object incoming on lasco3 at the 8oclock position
 Quoting: ~Jay~


just saw that
wow have to look into this one
we also have a filament eruption in the northern region of the sun
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Jan27-Feb17 Mercury -1.5 mag right to left
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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02/10/2012 10:45 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NASA model shows CME hitting Earth (somewhat off-center) late on the 13th.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

SEEDS movie of partial halo Earthbound CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

:cme2/10:
hidingtomatohiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


whos declaring it earthbound?
looking over SDO it looks to have ejected far northward
might see a slight glancing blow, but i would not say much

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 02/10/2012 10:45 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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02/10/2012 10:50 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's a very good chance that this last CME will be geo-effective. The filament eruption was Earth-facing and produced a very long two-ribbon flare seen in the SDO images taken approximately 30 mins. apart.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Ahead image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Behind image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

explosionahhhabomb
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I guess we start looking for hit predictions then.

Also 1416 has been developing nicely.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

getting meaner looking as it points at us.
 Quoting: Starwind

Thanks, Starwind, I was just thinking the same thing. Region 1416 is one of the fastest-growing sunspot groups I've seen. It's produced a steady drumbeat of B-flares; but as it turns facing Earth for the next 4-5 days, I think we'll soon see some more powerful flares.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Also, the remnants of 1401 & X-Boy 1402 are due back any time now.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


1402 is still going? I remember reading if it made a complete transit that would make it an odd sunspot as they don't typically last that long.

Isn't that the one that gave us the square hit last month?
 Quoting: Starwind


yes we will see the return of old sunspots 1401 and 1402 starting around sunday
they still look like there going strong
will be an interesting solar week coming up
get your rest everyone! ^^

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 02/10/2012 10:55 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Gabriel

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02/10/2012 10:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi Ya Nin....watching and waiting for the big show.... hope its painless

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