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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
shenue

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02/10/2012 08:58 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good Morning
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
NiNzrez (OP)

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02/10/2012 10:30 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we have a CME seen coming from the area just to the west of southern sunspot region 1416
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
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FyreStorm

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02/10/2012 10:42 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone
Anonymous Coward
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02/10/2012 11:05 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This is strange. Don't believe I've ever seen a sun glare warning on a traffic report before.

Thread: THE SUN HAS NEVER BEEN THIS LUMINOUS - "Sun Glare Warning" NJ Traffic Report
Hugh M Eye

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02/10/2012 12:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we have a CME seen coming from the area just to the west of southern sunspot region 1416
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Good catch, NIN. I can't seem to find any flare or filaments in that region responsible for the eruption. Perhaps it's one of those "stealth" CMEs. Sometimes vacant or empty filament channels erupt for reasons no one quite understands yet.

"The problem is that whatever is causing these stealth events is beyond what we can see with telescopes we have now," said Alexei Pevtsov of the National Solar Observatory in Sunspot, NM.

[link to www.nso.edu]

Earlier there was another giant filament eruption on the far northwest limb.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

That event was followed by a powerful flare from beyond the west limb at region 1410. GOES X-ray flux recorded it as a C1.1, but it has all the earmarks of at least an M-flare.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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02/10/2012 01:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wtf
anyone see the object incoming on lasco3 at the 8oclock position
Hugh M Eye

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02/10/2012 01:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wtf
anyone see the object incoming on lasco3 at the 8oclock position
 Quoting: ~Jay~


I think that's a reflection of Venus off the armature that holds the occulting disk. It's not tracking with the background stars, so I ruled out a supernova. We'll know for sure if it moves away from the occulter arm.

[link to www.theplanetstoday.com]

[link to secchi.nrl.navy.mil]

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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02/10/2012 02:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wtf
anyone see the object incoming on lasco3 at the 8oclock position
 Quoting: ~Jay~


I think that's a reflection of Venus off the armature that holds the occulting disk. It's not tracking with the background stars, so I ruled out a supernova. We'll know for sure if it moves away from the occulter arm.

[link to www.theplanetstoday.com]

[link to secchi.nrl.navy.mil]

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Strangely, Mercury has appeared for one frame in the C3 images and disappeared again. Most likely the reflection and blooming pixels are from Mercury, not Venus. The apparition and disappearance of Mercury is probably due to SOHO's orbit going retrograde...just a guess.

[link to lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil]
Hugh M Eye

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02/10/2012 03:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Previously mentioned prominence eruption.
:prom2/10:

Beyond-the-limb flare from 1410.
:limbflare:
Hugh M Eye

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02/10/2012 03:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SDO close-up composite movie of beyond-the-limb flare from region 1410:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
El Quisqueyano

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02/10/2012 04:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Significant earthquake precursor signal detected on 02/10/12 at 1900utc/1400est. Possible 6+.

Radio Direction Finder has signal coming in East of France from somewhere out in the Northern, Mid to Southern portions of the Pacific plate to Alaska, Canada and Chile.


All who live anywhere in the vicinity of this line trajectory should be wary next 5 hours. Have escape plan ready and seek open terrain in the event of felt tremor. Secure most of your heavy objects and belongings around your home.


Namaste,

Hopefully I am wrong. Or it hits an unpopulated area.
Japan is also a likely target. Be wary.
Anonymous Coward
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02/10/2012 04:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CME
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
Luisport

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02/10/2012 04:24 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


Earth directed?
Hugh M Eye

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02/10/2012 04:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


Earth directed?
 Quoting: Luisport


Possibly geo-effective, though it's too soon to be sure. Yet another large filament has lifted off in the northeast solar quadrant.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

STEREO Ahead movie:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Behind image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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02/10/2012 07:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's a very good chance that this last CME will be geo-effective. The filament eruption was Earth-facing and produced a very long two-ribbon flare seen in the SDO images taken approximately 30 mins. apart.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Ahead image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Behind image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

explosionahhhabomb
Starwind

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02/10/2012 07:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's a very good chance that this last CME will be geo-effective. The filament eruption was Earth-facing and produced a very long two-ribbon flare seen in the SDO images taken approximately 30 mins. apart.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Ahead image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Behind image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

explosionahhhabomb
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I guess we start looking for hit predictions then.

Also 1416 has been developing nicely.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

getting meaner looking as it points at us.
Hugh M Eye

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02/10/2012 08:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's a very good chance that this last CME will be geo-effective. The filament eruption was Earth-facing and produced a very long two-ribbon flare seen in the SDO images taken approximately 30 mins. apart.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Ahead image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Behind image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

explosionahhhabomb
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I guess we start looking for hit predictions then.

Also 1416 has been developing nicely.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

getting meaner looking as it points at us.
 Quoting: Starwind

Thanks, Starwind, I was just thinking the same thing. Region 1416 is one of the fastest-growing sunspot groups I've seen. It's produced a steady drumbeat of B-flares; but as it turns facing Earth for the next 4-5 days, I think we'll soon see some more powerful flares.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Also, the remnants of 1401 & X-Boy 1402 are due back any time now.
old guard

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02/10/2012 08:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I still think it's odd that we don't have more sunspots.peace
Starwind

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02/10/2012 09:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's a very good chance that this last CME will be geo-effective. The filament eruption was Earth-facing and produced a very long two-ribbon flare seen in the SDO images taken approximately 30 mins. apart.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Ahead image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Behind image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

explosionahhhabomb
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I guess we start looking for hit predictions then.

Also 1416 has been developing nicely.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

getting meaner looking as it points at us.
 Quoting: Starwind

Thanks, Starwind, I was just thinking the same thing. Region 1416 is one of the fastest-growing sunspot groups I've seen. It's produced a steady drumbeat of B-flares; but as it turns facing Earth for the next 4-5 days, I think we'll soon see some more powerful flares.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Also, the remnants of 1401 & X-Boy 1402 are due back any time now.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


1402 is still going? I remember reading if it made a complete transit that would make it an odd sunspot as they don't typically last that long.

Isn't that the one that gave us the square hit last month?
Hugh M Eye

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02/10/2012 09:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1402 is still going?

1402 gave us the M8, the X1, and the two proton storms. We should see what's left of it in the next day or two. Although it looks decreased, it can be seen as the white area near 90 degrees east in this Heliographic map.

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 02/10/2012 10:05 PM
NiNzrez (OP)

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02/10/2012 10:34 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wtf
anyone see the object incoming on lasco3 at the 8oclock position
 Quoting: ~Jay~


just saw that
wow have to look into this one
we also have a filament eruption in the northern region of the sun
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Hugh M Eye

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02/10/2012 10:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NASA model shows CME hitting Earth (somewhat off-center) late on the 13th.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

SEEDS movie of partial halo Earthbound CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

:cme2/10:
hidingtomatohiding
NiNzrez (OP)

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02/10/2012 10:44 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wtf
anyone see the object incoming on lasco3 at the 8oclock position
 Quoting: ~Jay~


just saw that
wow have to look into this one
we also have a filament eruption in the northern region of the sun
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Jan27-Feb17 Mercury -1.5 mag right to left
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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02/10/2012 10:45 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NASA model shows CME hitting Earth (somewhat off-center) late on the 13th.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

SEEDS movie of partial halo Earthbound CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

:cme2/10:
hidingtomatohiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


whos declaring it earthbound?
looking over SDO it looks to have ejected far northward
might see a slight glancing blow, but i would not say much

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 02/10/2012 10:45 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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02/10/2012 10:50 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's a very good chance that this last CME will be geo-effective. The filament eruption was Earth-facing and produced a very long two-ribbon flare seen in the SDO images taken approximately 30 mins. apart.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Ahead image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Behind image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

explosionahhhabomb
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I guess we start looking for hit predictions then.

Also 1416 has been developing nicely.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

getting meaner looking as it points at us.
 Quoting: Starwind

Thanks, Starwind, I was just thinking the same thing. Region 1416 is one of the fastest-growing sunspot groups I've seen. It's produced a steady drumbeat of B-flares; but as it turns facing Earth for the next 4-5 days, I think we'll soon see some more powerful flares.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Also, the remnants of 1401 & X-Boy 1402 are due back any time now.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


1402 is still going? I remember reading if it made a complete transit that would make it an odd sunspot as they don't typically last that long.

Isn't that the one that gave us the square hit last month?
 Quoting: Starwind


yes we will see the return of old sunspots 1401 and 1402 starting around sunday
they still look like there going strong
will be an interesting solar week coming up
get your rest everyone! ^^

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 02/10/2012 10:55 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Gabriel

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02/10/2012 10:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi Ya Nin....watching and waiting for the big show.... hope its painless
NiNzrez (OP)

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02/10/2012 11:00 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi Ya Nin....watching and waiting for the big show.... hope its painless
 Quoting: Gabriel


you and me both Gabe
i will always do my best to give heads up on any major event i see :)
hope your doing well!
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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02/10/2012 11:02 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sunspot 1416 right now
52% chance for M flare
41% chance for X flare

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]


SUNSPOT OF INTEREST:
For the second day in a row, sunspot AR1416 has doubled in size: movie. Moreover, it has developed a "beta-gamma" magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares.
Any such eruptions this weekend would be Earth directed as the sunspot turns to face our planet.

[link to spaceweather.com]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 02/10/2012 11:04 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Hugh M Eye

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02/10/2012 11:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sunspot 1416 right now
52% chance for M flare
41% chance for X flare

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]


SUNSPOT OF INTEREST:
For the second day in a row, sunspot AR1416 has doubled in size: movie. Moreover, it has developed a "beta-gamma" magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares.
Any such eruptions this weekend would be Earth directed as the sunspot turns to face our planet.

[link to spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Hello, NIN, hugs,I hope you're feeling better tonight.

SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 10 Feb 2012, 1237UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 10 Feb 2012 until 12 Feb 2012)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low, new NOAA AR 1416 (Catania 38) has
produced a series of B-class flares but is evolving fast and has
potential for more powerful events (up to the M level). There are two AR
rotating over the east limb which produced M-class flares during their
last transit.
:1416HMI:

Looks like ol' 1402 can be seen bubbling like a volcano on the northeast limb in a recent SDO image.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Southern OR

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02/11/2012 12:42 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
:sunartfeb2012:

New Solar Art Exhibit Opening

The new Sun as Art exhibit offers artistic interpretations of the Sun (with captions) based on solar images from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). This 20-piece show opens on Feb. 9. 2012 at the Maryland Science Center for three months to start its nationwide tour. The solar images were made possible by advances in imaging technology and sophisticated spacecraft engineering. Each of the framed and matted pieces is an impressive 36” x 30”...
[link to plus.google.com]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


This is beyond cool...
"Well-behaved women seldom make history." —Laurel Thatcher Ulrich

I am only one, but I am one. I cannot do everything, but I can do something. And I will not let what I cannot do interfere with what I can do. ~Edward Everett Hale

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