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SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

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02/11/2012 03:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
New region (the artist formerly known as 1402) hasn't lost much in its two week rotation on the far side. Another large flare (C7.7) and a possible CME. Both of these C7+ events would surely be M-class if the region wasn't occulted just over the limb....fasten your seatbelts, kids.

Recent SDO images:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Movie of latest C7.7 flare:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
hiding
Hugh M Eye

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02/11/2012 03:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
ENLIL tracking model for yesterday's CME.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

:Enlil2/14:
NiNzrez (OP)

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02/11/2012 05:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
i just got a new blog post up
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
Southern OR

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02/12/2012 12:53 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
i just got a new blog post up
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Why do they renumber the sunspots when they come back around?
"Well-behaved women seldom make history." —Laurel Thatcher Ulrich

I am only one, but I am one. I cannot do everything, but I can do something. And I will not let what I cannot do interfere with what I can do. ~Edward Everett Hale
shadasonic

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02/12/2012 01:04 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Msn states the sun is pointing a loaded gun at us (sunspots), they know somethings coming down the line
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2012 07:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
i just got a new blog post up
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Goofy Thum

nice, new picture NINz

kiss me
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2012 10:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Region 1416 increased in size from 100 to 400 millionths and is now a DHI type group


:region1416feb122:
Image from SDO shows region 1416 in white light and a magnetogram colour
The green (weak) and blue (strong) is positive polarity and yellow (weak) and red (strong) is negative polarity








:sunfulldiscfeb11:
Nice shot from the Dutch Observatory Feb11
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2012 10:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
bump
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2012 10:59 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Star photos, and other cool time lapse vids...just wow

Check it out:
[link to www.astrosurf.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2012 11:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Star photos, and other cool time lapse vids...just wow

Check it out:
[link to www.astrosurf.com]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


hf
El Quisqueyano

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02/12/2012 12:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Significant earthquake precursor signal detected on 02/12/12 at 1715utc/1215est. Possible 6+.

Radio Direction Finder has signal coming in East of France from somewhere out in the Northern, Mid to Southern portions of the Pacific plate to Alaska, Canada and Chile.


All who live anywhere in the vicinity of this line trajectory should be wary next 5 hours. Have escape plan ready and seek open terrain in the event of felt tremor. Secure most of your heavy objects and belongings around your home.


Namaste,

Hopefully I am wrong. Or it hits an unpopulated area.
Japan is also a likely target. Be wary.
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2012 02:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
i just got a new blog post up
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Wonderful!!! It's on my favs. now, thanks!!!5a5a
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2012 02:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Star photos, and other cool time lapse vids...just wow

Check it out:
[link to www.astrosurf.com]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


thanks- WOW !
sunshine4mealwayz

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02/12/2012 02:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
It must be a bad one cause all our tv channels are totally screwed up today.
shenue

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02/12/2012 03:39 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
ENLIL tracking model for yesterday's CME.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

:Enlil2/14:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I was just looking at Enlil and then saw you had posted this yesterday. It looks like we are going to take a hit. Is there anyway of knowing in advance how big of a hit it might be?
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2012 06:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
It must be a bad one cause all our tv channels are totally screwed up today.
 Quoting: sunshine4mealwayz


Netflix keeps going in and out for us, both through the Wii and the Roku. Came here to see what you guys know : )
Hugh M Eye

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02/12/2012 11:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
ENLIL tracking model for yesterday's CME.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

:Enlil2/14:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I was just looking at Enlil and then saw you had posted this yesterday. It looks like we are going to take a hit. Is there anyway of knowing in advance how big of a hit it might be?
 Quoting: shenue


Hi, Shenue. hf
We can make guesses but no,not really. Sometimes when we expect a good hit we see little or no effect and when we expect a minor disturbance we get slammed. There are so many variables it's impossible to predict with any certainty; which is why NIN and her helpers keep close tabs on CMEs when they're incoming. It keeps life interesting, LOL.

Until the launches of ACE and STEREO, we hardly had a clue what was going on up there. Now we have a tenuous early warning system, but predictions as to effects are at best educated guesses. Science has learned a great deal more about the nature of solar-geomagnetic interactions in the past 15 years, but there are still many hidden mysteries yet to be unravelled.
cool2
Hugh M Eye

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02/13/2012 12:09 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
NOAA has updated their solar region summary, adding regions 1418, 1419, & 1420. AR1419 has been the most active and is the reincarnation of the X-flare producing region 1402 from last month.

:Product: Solar Region Summary
:Issued: 2012 Feb 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 44 Issued at 0030Z on 13 Feb 2012
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 12 Feb
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 12/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1416 S19W15 287 0380 Eki 11 16 Beta
1417 N18E32 240 0030 Cso 04 05 Beta
1418 S24E13 259 0010 Bxo 03 04 Beta
1419 N28E69 203 0080 Cso 04 04 Beta
1420 N13E69 203 0050 Hsx 04 01 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 12/2400Z Feb
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 13 Feb to 15 Feb
Nmbr Lat Lo
1408 N08 153
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Soteria flare predictor map:

[link to sidc.oma.be]

SDO HMI Intensitygram image:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
El Quisqueyano

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02/13/2012 07:53 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Significant earthquake precursor signal detected on 02/13/12 at 1115utc/0615est. Possible 6+.

Radio Direction Finder has signal coming in East of France from somewhere out in the Northern, Mid to Southern portions of the Pacific plate to Alaska, Canada and Chile.


All who live anywhere in the vicinity of this line trajectory should be wary next 5 hours. Have escape plan ready and seek open terrain in the event of felt tremor. Secure most of your heavy objects and belongings around your home.


Namaste,

Hopefully I am wrong. Or it hits an unpopulated area.
Japan is also a likely target. Be wary.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2012 08:05 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
I went to Tellus Science Museum yesterday. They have a planetarium where they show movies on a big screen. The movie we watched was called Solar Storms. It was about the twin stereo satellites that monitor the storms coming from the sun. Unfortunately it didn't give any more information than you guys here give. It was interesting though and had some pretty cool animations showing how the storms come off the sun and impact earth. This thread gives way more information than the movie did. Keep up the good work everyone.
FyreStorm

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02/13/2012 09:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone

I see we have 5 spots rotating into view today

[link to www.lmsal.com]

gonna be a fun week for sure
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2012 09:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24

by Jan-Erik Solheim, Kjell Stordahl, Ole Humlum

Cornell University


Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is found between the length of a cycle and the average temperature in the same cycle, but a significant negative trend is found between the length of a cycle and the temperature in the next cycle. This provides a tool to predict an average temperature decrease of at least 1.0 "C from solar cycle 23 to 24 for the stations and areas analyzed...

[link to xxx.lanl.gov]
shenue

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02/13/2012 12:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
ENLIL tracking model for yesterday's CME.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

:Enlil2/14:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I was just looking at Enlil and then saw you had posted this yesterday. It looks like we are going to take a hit. Is there anyway of knowing in advance how big of a hit it might be?
 Quoting: shenue


Hi, Shenue. hf
We can make guesses but no,not really. Sometimes when we expect a good hit we see little or no effect and when we expect a minor disturbance we get slammed. There are so many variables it's impossible to predict with any certainty; which is why NIN and her helpers keep close tabs on CMEs when they're incoming. It keeps life interesting, LOL.

Until the launches of ACE and STEREO, we hardly had a clue what was going on up there. Now we have a tenuous early warning system, but predictions as to effects are at best educated guesses. Science has learned a great deal more about the nature of solar-geomagnetic interactions in the past 15 years, but there are still many hidden mysteries yet to be unravelled.
cool2
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thank you Hugh
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
El Quisqueyano

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02/13/2012 12:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Significant earthquake precursor signal detected on 02/13/12 at 1727utc/1227est. Possible 6+.

Radio Direction Finder has signal coming in East of France from somewhere out in the Northern, Mid to Southern portions of the Pacific plate to Alaska, Canada and Chile.


All who live anywhere in the vicinity of this line trajectory should be wary next 5 hours. Have escape plan ready and seek open terrain in the event of felt tremor. Secure most of your heavy objects and belongings around your home.


Namaste,

Hopefully I am wrong. Or it hits an unpopulated area.
Japan is also a likely target. Be wary.
Anonymous Coward
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Germany
02/13/2012 01:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Thats nice

The home of the largest X-flare in years, known as AR1402, has completed its transit around the far side of the Sun and is now Earth-facing again...
[link to www.space.com]
Hugh M Eye

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02/13/2012 01:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Thats nice

The home of the largest X-flare in years, known as AR1402, has completed its transit around the far side of the Sun and is now Earth-facing again...
[link to www.space.com]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Hi, IWTB. Yes, it's not often for a sunspot to survive a 360 degree rotation. Although quiet now, a few days ago this region produced two strong C7+ flares before it even appeared on the Earthside disk. It's still possible the giant may re-awaken. Also, I've been surprised at the lack of activity from AR1416. It's extremely large but has been very quiet and stable so far.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2012 02:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Thats nice

The home of the largest X-flare in years, known as AR1402, has completed its transit around the far side of the Sun and is now Earth-facing again...
[link to www.space.com]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Hi, IWTB. Yes, it's not often for a sunspot to survive a 360 degree rotation. Although quiet now, a few days ago this region produced two strong C7+ flares before it even appeared on the Earthside disk. It's still possible the giant may re-awaken. Also, I've been surprised at the lack of activity from AR1416. It's extremely large but has been very quiet and stable so far.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye




Oh yep,

maybe the calm before the storm


Sunspot 1402, Then and Now. This image shows Sunspot 1402 (since renumbered 1419) after the farside transit of the Sun
[link to www.facebook.com]
Hugh M Eye

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02/13/2012 02:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Plasma Bullets trigger Northern Lights.

[link to science.nasa.gov]



[link to svs.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2012 03:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Plasma Bullets trigger Northern Lights.

[link to science.nasa.gov]



[link to svs.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


wow nice one!


Here's another great timelapse movie


Time-Lapse Starscape Videos Show Heavens in Motion


Halverson, who recently won a time-lapse video competition with one of his Milky Way clips, photographed this sequence during the summer and fall of 2011 in South Dakota, Utah and Colorado.

"What you see is real, but you can't see it this way with the naked eye. It is the result of 20-30 second exposures, edited together over many hours to produce the time-lapse," Halverson wrote...



Enjoy:
[link to www.wired.com]
El Quisqueyano

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02/13/2012 04:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Significant earthquake precursor signal detected on 02/13/12 at 1727utc/1227est. Possible 6+.

Radio Direction Finder has signal coming in East of France from somewhere out in the Northern, Mid to Southern portions of the Pacific plate to Alaska, Canada and Chile.


All who live anywhere in the vicinity of this line trajectory should be wary next 5 hours. Have escape plan ready and seek open terrain in the event of felt tremor. Secure most of your heavy objects and belongings around your home.


Namaste,

Hopefully I am wrong. Or it hits an unpopulated area.
Japan is also a likely target. Be wary.
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


2012-02-13 21:07:09.9 41.38 N 122.94 W 60 mb 5.2 A NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MIX
2012-02-13 21:07:07.7 42.23 N 125.04 E 32 mb 5.3 A OFFSHORE OREGON MSO
2012-02-13 21:07:05.7 41.20 N 123.20 W 23 Mw 6.1 A NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BGSG
2012-02-13 21:07:03.5 41.24 N 123.52 W 15 mb 5.3 A NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SC3
2012-02-13 21:07:01.1 41.08 N 123.71 W 10 M 5.4 A NORTHERN CALIFORNIA GFZ
2012-02-13 21:06:58.4 41.01 N 126.32 W 15 mb 5.4 A OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZAMG
2012-02-13 21:06:40.8 37.36 N 127.00 W 10 mb 5.5 A OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BEO


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