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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
shenue

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02/13/2012 12:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ENLIL tracking model for yesterday's CME.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

:Enlil2/14:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I was just looking at Enlil and then saw you had posted this yesterday. It looks like we are going to take a hit. Is there anyway of knowing in advance how big of a hit it might be?
 Quoting: shenue


Hi, Shenue. hf
We can make guesses but no,not really. Sometimes when we expect a good hit we see little or no effect and when we expect a minor disturbance we get slammed. There are so many variables it's impossible to predict with any certainty; which is why NIN and her helpers keep close tabs on CMEs when they're incoming. It keeps life interesting, LOL.

Until the launches of ACE and STEREO, we hardly had a clue what was going on up there. Now we have a tenuous early warning system, but predictions as to effects are at best educated guesses. Science has learned a great deal more about the nature of solar-geomagnetic interactions in the past 15 years, but there are still many hidden mysteries yet to be unravelled.
cool2
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thank you Hugh
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
El Quisqueyano

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02/13/2012 12:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Significant earthquake precursor signal detected on 02/13/12 at 1727utc/1227est. Possible 6+.

Radio Direction Finder has signal coming in East of France from somewhere out in the Northern, Mid to Southern portions of the Pacific plate to Alaska, Canada and Chile.


All who live anywhere in the vicinity of this line trajectory should be wary next 5 hours. Have escape plan ready and seek open terrain in the event of felt tremor. Secure most of your heavy objects and belongings around your home.


Namaste,

Hopefully I am wrong. Or it hits an unpopulated area.
Japan is also a likely target. Be wary.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2012 01:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thats nice

The home of the largest X-flare in years, known as AR1402, has completed its transit around the far side of the Sun and is now Earth-facing again...
[link to www.space.com]
Hugh M Eye

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02/13/2012 01:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thats nice

The home of the largest X-flare in years, known as AR1402, has completed its transit around the far side of the Sun and is now Earth-facing again...
[link to www.space.com]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Hi, IWTB. Yes, it's not often for a sunspot to survive a 360 degree rotation. Although quiet now, a few days ago this region produced two strong C7+ flares before it even appeared on the Earthside disk. It's still possible the giant may re-awaken. Also, I've been surprised at the lack of activity from AR1416. It's extremely large but has been very quiet and stable so far.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2012 02:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thats nice

The home of the largest X-flare in years, known as AR1402, has completed its transit around the far side of the Sun and is now Earth-facing again...
[link to www.space.com]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Hi, IWTB. Yes, it's not often for a sunspot to survive a 360 degree rotation. Although quiet now, a few days ago this region produced two strong C7+ flares before it even appeared on the Earthside disk. It's still possible the giant may re-awaken. Also, I've been surprised at the lack of activity from AR1416. It's extremely large but has been very quiet and stable so far.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye




Oh yep,

maybe the calm before the storm


Sunspot 1402, Then and Now. This image shows Sunspot 1402 (since renumbered 1419) after the farside transit of the Sun
[link to www.facebook.com]
Hugh M Eye

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02/13/2012 02:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Plasma Bullets trigger Northern Lights.

[link to science.nasa.gov]



[link to svs.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1297814
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02/13/2012 03:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Plasma Bullets trigger Northern Lights.

[link to science.nasa.gov]



[link to svs.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


wow nice one!


Here's another great timelapse movie


Time-Lapse Starscape Videos Show Heavens in Motion


Halverson, who recently won a time-lapse video competition with one of his Milky Way clips, photographed this sequence during the summer and fall of 2011 in South Dakota, Utah and Colorado.

"What you see is real, but you can't see it this way with the naked eye. It is the result of 20-30 second exposures, edited together over many hours to produce the time-lapse," Halverson wrote...



Enjoy:
[link to www.wired.com]
El Quisqueyano

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02/13/2012 04:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Significant earthquake precursor signal detected on 02/13/12 at 1727utc/1227est. Possible 6+.

Radio Direction Finder has signal coming in East of France from somewhere out in the Northern, Mid to Southern portions of the Pacific plate to Alaska, Canada and Chile.


All who live anywhere in the vicinity of this line trajectory should be wary next 5 hours. Have escape plan ready and seek open terrain in the event of felt tremor. Secure most of your heavy objects and belongings around your home.


Namaste,

Hopefully I am wrong. Or it hits an unpopulated area.
Japan is also a likely target. Be wary.
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


2012-02-13 21:07:09.9 41.38 N 122.94 W 60 mb 5.2 A NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MIX
2012-02-13 21:07:07.7 42.23 N 125.04 E 32 mb 5.3 A OFFSHORE OREGON MSO
2012-02-13 21:07:05.7 41.20 N 123.20 W 23 Mw 6.1 A NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BGSG
2012-02-13 21:07:03.5 41.24 N 123.52 W 15 mb 5.3 A NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SC3
2012-02-13 21:07:01.1 41.08 N 123.71 W 10 M 5.4 A NORTHERN CALIFORNIA GFZ
2012-02-13 21:06:58.4 41.01 N 126.32 W 15 mb 5.4 A OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZAMG
2012-02-13 21:06:40.8 37.36 N 127.00 W 10 mb 5.5 A OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BEO
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2012 09:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Gamma RAY Burst Real-time Sky Map - [link to grb.sonoma.edu]
Feb 11th Lepus - [link to www.constellationsofwords.com]
Feb 12th Eridanus - [link to www.constellationsofwords.com]
Feb 13th Draco - [link to www.constellationsofwords.com]
old guard

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02/13/2012 09:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I can't load the page
Hugh M Eye

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02/14/2012 12:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Heart-shaped umbra for Valentine's Day from sunspot 1416.
:1416 Heart:

No sign of CME so far....may be a little late or not very geo-effective.

ACE protons are rising slowly however.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Solar Wind data from ACE:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES electrons look a little disturbed:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NICT Magnetosphere simulation:

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
pink cat

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02/14/2012 12:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Heart-shaped umbra for Valentine's Day from sunspot 1416.
:1416 Heart:

No sign of CME so far....may be a little late or not very geo-effective.

ACE protons are rising slowly however.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Solar Wind data from ACE:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES electrons look a little disturbed:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NICT Magnetosphere simulation:

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


wow!!! heart shaped! and had a heart shaped cme the other day!
still looking for a big pic of it :)
i have a feeling about this valentine's day....

:blazarbuffalo:
+++ with a bunny hat +++
Hugh M Eye

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02/14/2012 12:28 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
From Thunderbolts: The Sun's Density Gradient--

"Somewhere on the short list of inexplicable properties of the Sun, there is the question of what causes the distinctive density gradient. Only taking gravity and hydrostatic pressure into account, the density of a gas in space should fall off with the square of the distance from the center of gravity, producing a (more or less) straight line on a log graph. From the center of the Sun out to the edge of the photosphere, this is precisely what happens. But the fall-off should continue on that straight line to infinity, which is not what happens. At the surface, the density drops off sharply, as if the plasma is inside a sealed container.

Clearly, powerful forces are at work, to maintain the higher-than-expected density out to the edge, and then for the density to drop off suddenly to almost nothing. Obviously, the gravitational model cannot explain this, and calling the Sun a nuclear furnace doesn't help, because no heat source (nuclear or otherwise) creates containment in free space.

There is really only one possibility here, that this is (somehow) a manifestation of EM forces. But what kind of forces could contain plasma in free space? Put in the simplest of terms, the Sun is obviously a bunch of plasma that is attracted to itself -- far more so than gravity can explain...

[link to www.thunderbolts.info]
lflash
Hugh M Eye

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02/14/2012 12:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Heart-shaped umbra for Valentine's Day from sunspot 1416.
:1416 Heart:

 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


wow!!! heart shaped! and had a heart shaped cme the other day!
still looking for a big pic of it :)
i have a feeling about this valentine's day....

:blazarbuffalo:
 Quoting: pink cat


Hello, Pink Cat,hf I hope your day goes well. That photo of the sunspot is near real-time and I thought it was quite a fortuitous coincidence. The heart seems to be broken like mine....sigh. Love your giant anatomically-correct fake buffalo. Very sentimental....accent on the mental, LOL.

smile_hearsmile_kisssmile_hear
Hugh M Eye

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02/14/2012 01:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wow!!! heart shaped! and had a heart shaped cme the other day!
still looking for a big pic of it :)
i have a feeling about this valentine's day....

:blazarbuffalo:
 Quoting: pink cat


Here's your heart-shaped CME from the 10th (SOHO C2 images):

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
Spittin'Cesium

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02/14/2012 01:08 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Heart-shaped umbra for Valentine's Day from sunspot 1416.
:1416 Heart:

 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


wow!!! heart shaped! and had a heart shaped cme the other day!
still looking for a big pic of it :)
i have a feeling about this valentine's day....

:blazarbuffalo:
 Quoting: pink cat


Hello, Pink Cat,hf I hope your day goes well. That photo of the sunspot is near real-time and I thought it was quite a fortuitous coincidence. The heart seems to be broken like mine....sigh. Love your giant anatomically-correct fake buffalo. Very sentimental....accent on the mental, LOL.

smile_hearsmile_kisssmile_hear
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


There is also the Pi Symbol in the Magnetogram of 1419: [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2012 01:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Heart-shaped umbra for Valentine's Day from sunspot 1416.
:1416 Heart:

No sign of CME so far....may be a little late or not very geo-effective.

ACE protons are rising slowly however.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Solar Wind data from ACE:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES electrons look a little disturbed:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NICT Magnetosphere simulation:

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye




wowowowowowow awesome

do you have an original link for that image?
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2012 01:58 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
RTS REDUX

User ID: 8620349
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02/14/2012 02:38 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Heart-shaped umbra for Valentine's Day from sunspot 1416.
:1416 Heart:

No sign of CME so far....may be a little late or not very geo-effective.

ACE protons are rising slowly however.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Solar Wind data from ACE:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES electrons look a little disturbed:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NICT Magnetosphere simulation:

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye




wowowowowowow awesome

do you have an original link for that image?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 10745930

"If one understands that socialism is not a share-the-wealth programme, but is in reality a method to consolidate and control the wealth, then the seeming paradox of super-rich men promoting socialism becomes no paradox at all. Instead, it becomes logical, even the perfect tool of power-seeking megalomaniacs.

Communism or more accurately, socialism, is not a movement of the downtrodden masses, but of the economic elite."

Gary Allen

NONE DARE CALL IT CONSPIRACY
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Hitler was a leftist
[link to constitutionalistnc.tripod.com]


01sigao
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2012 02:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here you have the latest Helioviewer images i uploaded it:

AIA 4500
[link to i1220.photobucket.com]

AIA 1700
[link to i1220.photobucket.com]


AIA 1600
[link to i1220.photobucket.com]


and from Kevin(Solarham)
[link to www.solarham.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2012 03:06 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here you have the latest Helioviewer images i uploaded it:

AIA 4500
[link to i1220.photobucket.com]

AIA 1700
[link to i1220.photobucket.com]


AIA 1600
[link to i1220.photobucket.com]


and from Kevin(Solarham)
[link to www.solarham.com]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76





awesome thank you

would you happen to know what time this sun spot started to shape this way??

eastern time about what time?

[link to www.spaceweather.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2012 03:55 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Some Sunspot Update:


:sunspotstodayfeb:

Region 1417 decayed and disappeared yesterday

No new regions were numbered

There is a new active region expected to rotate into view in about 2 days

Stereo Behind Euvi 195 shows us the new incoming Region
:stereobehindnewR:


---------------------------------------





Prominences/Filaments

:FulldiscFeb14201:
The 2 large prominences at the NE limb are still there and the area of 1417,19 and 20 is very active. Several smaller prominences are also seen at the Western limb and some nice filaments now also extend in the southern hemisphere

:filamentsfeb1420:
Starwind

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02/14/2012 07:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Have we not been hit by the CME that was due yesterday/today yet? The magnetosphere simulation isn't showing anything.

It must be poking along if it hasn't hit yet. Are there any special effects of incredibly slow CMEs? The worry has been the fast ones so far.
shenue

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02/14/2012 09:47 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Have we not been hit by the CME that was due yesterday/today yet? The magnetosphere simulation isn't showing anything.
 Quoting: Starwind


I was wondering the same thing. The Enlil simulated prediction says we should be in the middle of it right about now. But it doesn't appear that we are.
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

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02/14/2012 09:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

starting right now..BZ going red
shenue

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02/14/2012 10:30 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

starting right now..BZ going red
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


Ahh yes. Last time I looked it was all blue. At this moment there is some yellow also.

Thanks LOOK'n
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2012 11:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
nice article from sdo...

Getting Cozy with Our Closest Star


Not only does NASA have its eye on the entire sun all the time through its SDO, STEREO, and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) missions, and ofc (Solar Watch GLP! MY Solar Alerts :P) it has a fleet of missionsdedicated to understanding how the variable sun affects us in the near-space environment of Earth, as well as its effects on other planets and the edge of the solar system.

These new and better observations are helping us unravel some of the sun’s most baffling puzzles.

One of them is why the outermost layer of the solaratmosphere, the corona, is heated to much higher temperatures (millions of degrees) than the underlying layers, even though it is further from the core, the source of all solar energy. This counterintuitive fact has bothered scientists for decades. Energy is deposited in the corona by some not-yet- established mechanism referred to as coronal heating. Recent progress toward understanding this enigma offers new and exciting possibilities.

Many theories have been suggested through the years, but a couple of provocative recent studies have grabbed the spotlight. A group of scientists from Lockheed Martin, NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research), and the University of Oslo suggest that the chromosphere (the cooler, middle layer of the atmosphere) provides the corona with a mass supply via small, ubiquitous cool jets of material called spicules that are constantly shot up into the corona. Although spicules have been observed for decades, this newly identified spicule, referred to as “type II,” is shorter-lived (by about 100 seconds) and more dynamic (by about 50 to 100 km/s econd) than its classical counterpart. The discovery was enabled by observations from SDO and Hinode, a Japanese-led international mission to study solar magnetic fields. This recent work emphasizes the importance of the chromosphere, a region that has typically been neglected in understanding the heating of the solar atmosphere....


ReadMore:
[link to www.nasa.gov]
NiNzrez (OP)

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02/14/2012 11:54 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

starting right now..BZ going red
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


Ahh yes. Last time I looked it was all blue. At this moment there is some yellow also.

Thanks LOOK'n
 Quoting: shenue


thats all were going to see of the Feb 10th CME
the CME arrival was expected early this morning
i suspected it was directed way north and thats why i did not report much on it
looks like thats exactly what it did
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2012 02:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
nice article from sdo...

Getting Cozy with Our Closest Star


Not only does NASA have its eye on the entire sun all the time through its SDO, STEREO, and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) missions, and ofc (Solar Watch GLP! MY Solar Alerts :P)
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


You all do some great reporting in this thread...and it should be recognized like that.
Your added bit made me smile...

Thanks for what you all do!

hf
shenue

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02/14/2012 02:39 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

starting right now..BZ going red
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


Ahh yes. Last time I looked it was all blue. At this moment there is some yellow also.

Thanks LOOK'n
 Quoting: shenue


thats all were going to see of the Feb 10th CME
the CME arrival was expected early this morning
i suspected it was directed way north and thats why i did not report much on it
looks like thats exactly what it did
 Quoting: NiNzrez


You're good NIN :-) You predicted it more accurately than NOAA WSA-Enlil

applause2

Last Edited by shenue on 02/14/2012 02:41 PM
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC

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