SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Yeah, its possible

staying tuned.

Yup i have never seen the solar winds carry a density like that or go negative that far south...wtf is going on??? I am starting to think they are not showing us all that is going on with the flux charts.....

Last Edited by <<LOOK`n thru YOU>> on 02/18/2012 09:55 PM

Nice and white now!


[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Lot's of shaking would go on. Just imagine a bobble head, on the dashboard of your car, bobbling as you stop and go.

El Quisqueyano: I have tried finding out what stars are involved with the area where the GRB's have originated from. I cant find any info on them at all.

[link to grb.sonoma.edu]

If you click on the GRB event for 20120211 it gives you the coordinates on the bottom.

From the Solar Influences Data Center-

COMMENT: The Sun's flaring is expected to remain very low with a small
chance for a C-flare. Geomagnetic conditions can turn to unsettled
levels later today due to the arrival of a coronal hole wind stream.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

Usually a Coronal Hole wiind-stream has a low density and high velocity; so this event would be somewhat anomalous.

GOES Electron Flux shows dramatic drop-and-bounce:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer disturbed:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

K Index jumped to 7 in Dombas, Norway (only 4 or 5 most places):

[link to flux.phys.uit.no]

HAARP Fluxgate Magnetometer:

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

Holly Shit!!!(excuse the french) I have never seen this;

[link to www.ips.gov.au]


Bz at -110!!!!!


Strap on you folks in earthquake prone areas!

Forecaster Comments: Sorry, high speed stream from the coronal hole was slow and late.
[link to www.gi.alaska.edu]

Nice active aurora over Poker Flat, AK.

[link to salmon.nict.go.jp]

Yellowknife, NW Territories, CA:

[link to www.asc-csa.gc.ca]

Unfortunately, some of the other aurora cams are cloudy tonight.

New NOAA Warning issued.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 747
Issue Time: 2012 Feb 19 0424 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2012 Feb 19 0425 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Feb 19 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees
Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier
of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 02/19/2012 12:10 AM

Notice this?

There's nothing unusual in the NOAA warning. Any magnetic disturbance of K4 or above has the potential for weak ground currents, usually occurring in the polar regions. If we get warnings of 7,8, or 9 (severe storm) the currents become stronger and reach down to lower latitudes. You may want to peruse this in-depth report from the Federation of American Scientists called Geomagnetic Storms and the US Power Grid. This paper has dozens of graphs and an comprehensive analysis of the 1989 storm and other events.(note:pdf is 14MB)

[link to www.fas.org]

whoa been busy all day and now see this
well, we have seen many many geomagnetic storms way above a Kp4 and this is the st time i have seen NOAA add that to ANY of their alerts
especialy from a CH wind

I'm still mystified by the slow solar wind speed.

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

Here's one possibility:

When the high-speed solar wind emanating from the coronal holes runs into the slower solar wind, the interaction leads to a compression of the plasma and magnetic fields, forming corotating interaction regions (CIR) (Crooker et al., 1999). The CIRs seldom have fast shocks or continuous, strongly southward IMF Bz, and thus drive only moderate magnetospheric activity

[link to solarphysics.livingreviews.org]

Found an index of 111 papers relating to coronal holes and I'm hard-pressed to find any mention of a slow SW speed coronal hole. They're practically synonymous with a high-speed stream (500km/s-800km/s). Also, the big spike in density is out of character for a coronal hole. This disturbance and the one 3 days ago are most unusual. We may see some groundbreaking heliophysics papers coming out next year if somebody figures it out.

[link to solarphysics.livingreviews.org]

t loos like NOAA has changes their Alert Reports a bit, adding some new info

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 676
Issue Time: 2012 Feb 19 0601 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Feb 19 0600 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

------------------------------------------------------------
​
Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 747
Issue Time: 2012 Feb 19 0424 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2012 Feb 19 0425 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Feb 19 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees
Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier
of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

------------------------------------------------------------
​
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 1560
Issue Time: 2012 Feb 19 0150 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2012 Feb 19 0147 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees
Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and
Alaska.

------------------------------------------------------------
​
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1867
Issue Time: 2012 Feb 19 0042 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Feb 19 0041 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Feb 19 1241 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees
Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and
Alaska.

As usual very reactive ..

all this in normal conditions
this CH in question is of a southern position
the winds from it hit in a negative/southward direction
doing so, they connect with earths magnetic field and cause a storm
some CH winds are super slow, some are super fast
some winds dont connect or cause much differance
some connect and stir up a storm

it all depends on the compasition and location of the coronal hole

?

Density has dropped significantly and SW velocity has increased. This is more in line with what's expected from a coronal hole. I anticipate the SW speed will increase further.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Kp index has risen to 5= Storm.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

K index of 6 at Tromso and maintaining a 7 at Dombas:

[link to flux.phys.uit.no]

GOES Electron flux looking like spaghetti:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Coronal hole SW speeds are never super-slow. Have you any citations?

they are low a lot of the time
the speeds have a lot to do with the size and location of the coronal holes
this because of how and where the winds come from within and around the coronal holes
just look at the last, lets say 10 coronal holes that we have had earth facing
out of those 10, how many of them have had Fast winds associated with them?
how about, lets say, over 500Km?
i will look up the exact number in the morning, but its 1-2 if that
the CH we have facing us right now is only producing wind speeds just above 400km
this is to be expected as solar max arrives
coronal holes act differantly in solar minimum, compaired to solar max
as i said a few days ago, there is a LOT we still have to learn about coronal holes
but, i believe they are the key to knowing exactly when we will see the peak of this solar max. this is why i have been spending most of my spare time researching coronal holes

slower transient coronal holes appear at solar maximum in lower latitudes
[link to docs.google.com (secure)]

coronal holes at solar max
[link to docs.google.com (secure)]


Fast and Slow Wind from Solar Coronal Holes
S. BRAVO AND G. A. STEWART
"Coronal holes have been identified as the sources of high-speed streams that appear in the solar wind, but comparisons of the coronal structure and solar wind observations suggest that they may also be the sources of slow wind, which could be emerging from the bordering, highly divergent regions of the hole."
"In particular, it has been observed that some properties of the solar wind depend on its velocity regime, being clearly different for fast and slow winds. The high-speed wind (u 650 km s-1) is characterized by a high temperature, a low density, and a low mass flux, while the low-speed wind (u 400 km s-1) is cooler, denser, and has a larger mass flux."
[link to iopscience.iop.org]

Thread: resignations

C class flare

Thread: a weird dream last night

this was a recent strange dream about solar flares

weird stuff going on early people 2012

i wanna see northern lights!!

maybe good for visuals:

A 3-D way to release magnetic energy... fast!


[link to www.physorg.com]



Last Edited by aether on 02/19/2012 08:31 AM

For you Aether:


But if we suppose that the cosmic-ray particles are driven by electric and magnetic fields in space, in the same way as we accelerate particles in big laboratory accelerators, it is easy to see how they could reach very high energies indeed. We know that interstellar space is not absolutely void. Although the matter in it is very thin, certainly not more than an average of one atom per cubic centimeter, in the vastness of the universe it adds up to an enormous amount of material. In at least some regions the interstellar matter is ionized, so that it is a good electrical conductor. Furthermore, there are good arguments for assuming that a weak magnetic field (some millions of a gauss) pervades all of space. It is likely, therefore, that magnetohydrodynamic waves roam ceaselessly througlr space, generating weak but very extensive electric fields, especially near the stars. If so, we can picture charged atomic nuclei being propelled across electrified space, gathering speed as they go and crashing into the earth's atmosphere with energies far beyond any that could ever be generated within any star or planet.

Z

Thank you, NIN! OK, normal it is. I searched for two hours for a reference such as this and couldn't find one. I appreciate the info and stand corrected. It seems the edges of the holes interact with the adjacent coronal fields which causes "highly-divergent" and slower streams of SW. To quote the authors-

"An inverse dependence of the velocity of the wind on the divergence of the open field lines (near the Sun) along which the wind flows out into the interplanetary medium was first established by Levine, Altschuler, & Harvey (1977) by comparing observations with potential field models of the solar corona. More recently, Wang & Sheeley (1990), using a better coronal magnetic field model, reached the same conclusion. According to these models, low-divergence field lines emanate from the inner part of coronal holes and highly diverging ones from the borders"

[link to iopscience.iop.org]