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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Spittin'Cesium

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03/04/2012 11:59 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey all : )

It's looking pretty mean out there!

1429 looks kinda' ugly as does the leader spot formed infront of it(should'nt it be behind!?)

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

The Southern SS also looks quite messy..Action on!
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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03/04/2012 12:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Okay we have a new LDE Flare


:samgiflongdurati:

A long duration M2.0 Solar Flare peaked this morning at 10:45 UTC

and its still in pogress

:xraymarch4:
check X-ray:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

We noticed also a radioburst (Tenflare)
It reached 750 pfu


What is a Tenflare:

A tenflare is associated with optical and x-ray flares. Solar flares emit radiation over a very wide range of frequencies. One of the more significant frequencies observed is the 10.7 cm wavelength band (2695 MHz). When a solar flare erupts, "noise" from the flare is received over this very wide range of frequencies.

When the noise received on the 10.7 cm wavelength band surpasses 100% of the background noise level during a solar flare, a Tenflare is said to be in progress. The more intense solar flares are associated with tenflares. Almost all major flares are associated with tenflares.

Generally, the greater the intensity of the burst of noise observed at the 10.7 cm wavelength band, the more significant the flare is said to be. The duration of the tenflare can also be used to determine the severity of the flare.

Other important flare characteristics are also determined from the radio data observed from flares, which are closely related to the various physical processes which occur in flares. These characteristics are far beyond the scope of this document.
[link to www.sci.fi]



:sdo131mflaremarc:
Enlarge:
[link to i1220.photobucket.com]


A CME was also inbounded as we can see on Stereo images
:CMEstereoaheadm2:

:StereoBehindcmem:

Latest StereoBehind C2:
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Region 1429 is not in earthview right now but the CME looks bright. A portion of this cme could be geoeffective



[link to www.youtube.com]


Edit:


Current Sunspots 15:21UTC 03/04/2012

[link to i1220.photobucket.com]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Brilliant stuff there IWTB!
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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03/04/2012 12:06 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A filament in the northern hemisphere, east side of the solar disk, erupted around 1UT, March 04. The active region 1429, located near one end of the filament was at that moment flaring in the B-level. This active region was the source of 2 M-flares and several C-flares from March 02 onwards. With the M2.0 flare peaking at 10:45 this morning, another CME is associated. Because of the location of the source region on the solar disk, the CME's are probably not ejected straight to Earth. More M-flares are likely. There might be a small geomagnetic influence (K=3-4) from the long stretched coronal hole in the southern hemisphere from tomorrow onwards.
[link to sidc.oma.be]



Mar 04 1601 UTC CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76

this is something i posted on another thread that was talking about the sunspot number
so many of us will see all over the place how the sunspot number is so low and because of this, were expecting a weak peak to this solar cycle, and that it could be a few more years before we event see the solar max

its not the sunspots that we need to worrie about
they wont really do much damage to us here on Earth
what we need to be watching is the CME's and Filaments
the mass the sun flings at earth is what will do major damage here on the ground

you know, before this solar cycle, they use to say that Filaments on the sun were a rare thing
now we see them all over the sun and they snap and lift off almost as much as we see ordinary CME's

We are in solar cycle 24 right now with this cycle about to peak
just a quick look back at the time directly before solar cycle 23 peaked, in 2001, will tell a story

"Sept. 13, 2000 -- On Monday, Sept. 11, the sunspot number dropped to its lowest value of the year. The face of the Sun looked remarkably blank with only a few tiny spots visible in telescopes."

"You don't need sunspots to have filaments, so these types of explosions can occur even when the sunspot number is low."
[link to science.nasa.gov]

only 7 months after the above report, we seen the 2nd largest solar flare ever recorded
"a very large solar flare occurred on April 2, 2001, an X20-class, but the blast was directed away from Earth. This flare was the second most powerful ever recorded"
[link to en.wikipedia.org]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks for that NiNz : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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03/04/2012 12:11 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I just counted 19 C Flares and Two M Flares since the end of the 2nd March..I think that is the correct Number: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 03/04/2012 12:26 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

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03/04/2012 12:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks to those who answered my earlier questions.. i was just wondering if there is a program where you can go back and see the orbit of the moon and earth etc on a ceratin date in the past.. i think i remember seeng something from jpl i think it was.. maybe i was wrong.. if someone can help me with a link that would be awesome
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11802684


I just had a quick look for a program for you but to no avail..If you have'nt already you could search 'Cornell University,Moon Orbit is Wrong'..I can remember seeing that a little while back.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Your best bet is download a free planetarium software like Celestia or Stellarium:

[link to www.stellarium.org]

[link to www.shatters.net]

It's freeware and you'll always have it on your 'pooter. Or you can wrestle with the JPL Horizons database here:
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]

JPL Moon page:
[link to nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

more from ephemris.com:
[link to ephemeris.com]
shadasonic

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03/04/2012 12:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Can't wait to see how it all plays out.
 Quoting: TS66


I am sure it is not going to have any effect on earth.BTW once it becomes earth side it will lose its power to produce solar flares 100% confident
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11898272


Rhetoric sounds an awful lot like an astro physicist I know
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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03/04/2012 12:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It looks like region 1427 want to get in on the action... C3.2.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
Anonymous Coward
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03/04/2012 12:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It looks like region 1427 want to get in on the action... C3.2.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


nice one hugh,

check out Stereo Behind Euvi 195
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Nice flare and eruption (cme) on the farside east




ISWA Cygnet Streamer:
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]


Event Issue Date: 2012-03-04 15:06:24.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-06 04:29:09.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 13 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.6 Re
Tue, 06 Mar 2012 04:29:09 GMT
Tue, 06 Mar 2012 17:29:09 GMT

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/04/2012 01:03 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
lots of action today
i have a feeling this is a perset for what we have to look forward to this week
1429 looks like she wants to put on a good show for us on this rotation

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/04/2012 01:03 PM
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
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Anonymous Coward
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03/04/2012 01:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
My ears are ringing.
Hugh M Eye

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03/04/2012 01:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It looks like region 1427 want to get in on the action... C3.2.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


nice one hugh,

check out Stereo Behind Euvi 195
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Nice flare and eruption (cme) on the farside east




ISWA Cygnet Streamer:
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]


Event Issue Date: 2012-03-04 15:06:24.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-06 04:29:09.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 13 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.6 Re
Tue, 06 Mar 2012 04:29:09 GMT
Tue, 06 Mar 2012 17:29:09 GMT

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Wow, the Sun's waking up! That farside blast looked like one of those tsunami events. The M-flare CME will make for a bad-hair day on Mercury and Venus. Earth gets lucky again with the usual glancing blow.

Here's a few recent SDO images showing the C3 flare from 1427 and the intense coronal loops above 1429.... beautiful images.
171a: [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
304a: [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Comp: [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Two new active regions are forming now--a small one in the southwest and the more obvious one to the west of 1429.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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03/04/2012 01:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
lots of action today
i have a feeling this is a perset for what we have to look forward to this week
1429 looks like she wants to put on a good show for us on this rotation
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Howdy, NIN, thanks for putting an historical perspective on those SS numbers. In the 27-day rotation chart, you can see how quiet the x-ray flux has been since the X-flare. The proverbial calm before the storm perhaps.

[link to translate.google.de]
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/04/2012 01:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
lots of action today
i have a feeling this is a perset for what we have to look forward to this week
1429 looks like she wants to put on a good show for us on this rotation
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Howdy, NIN, thanks for putting an historical perspective on those SS numbers. In the 27-day rotation chart, you can see how quiet the x-ray flux has been since the X-flare. The proverbial calm before the storm perhaps.

[link to translate.google.de]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


hey Hugh :)
it is the clam that happens before the storm, and thats exactly why i went and got that info for this thread

so many people all over the place are saying this will be the weakest solar cycle in over 100 years
and from what i have seen, most are basing this on the sunspot number
this is calming the masses

but anyone can see with a simple google search, the low sunspot number does not tell us a story on a non eventfull solar cycle
let the flare blast off left and right
they are not what im think we should be so so concerned with
watch the CME's and Filaments!!
as the sun reverses polaritys at its max, sure we will see more solar flares, but keep a very close eye on the material the sun flings in our direction

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/04/2012 01:53 PM
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
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Hugh M Eye

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03/04/2012 01:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I notice a strange rise in ACE protons 2-3 hours BEFORE the M-flare.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE electrons rise also, but after the flare as would be expected:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I thought this was odd.

spock
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/04/2012 01:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Russia Today: Deadly asteroid bounds towards Earth out of the blue
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
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NiNzrez (OP)

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03/04/2012 01:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I notice a strange rise in ACE protons 2-3 hours BEFORE the M-flare.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE electrons rise also, but after the flare as would be expected:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I thought this was odd.

spock
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


i believe that was caused by this CME we can see that started around 08:00 (top right)
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

it might be small, but we can see on that image a nice pocket of compressed mass in the very front of it
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NiNzrez (OP)

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03/04/2012 02:01 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
looking over the most recent SDO images, i see a possible CME just occured from region 1427 in the northwestern area
We need stereo A to start updating to see this one better
Solar Alerts Blog
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Hugh M Eye

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03/04/2012 02:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
lots of action today
i have a feeling this is a perset for what we have to look forward to this week
1429 looks like she wants to put on a good show for us on this rotation
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Howdy, NIN, thanks for putting an historical perspective on those SS numbers. In the 27-day rotation chart, you can see how quiet the x-ray flux has been since the X-flare. The proverbial calm before the storm perhaps.

[link to translate.google.de]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


hey Hugh :)
it is the clam that happens before the storm, and thats exactly why i went and got that info for this thread

so many people all over the place are saying this will be the weakest solar cycle in over 100 years
and from what i have seen, most are basing this on the sunspot number
this is calming the masses

but anyone can see with a simple google search, the low sunspot number does not tell us a story on a non eventfull solar cycle
let the flare blast off left and right
they are not what im think we should be so so concerned with
watch the CME's and Filaments!!
as the sun reverses polaritys at its max, sure we will see more solar flares, but keep a very close eye on the material the sun flings in our direction
 Quoting: NiNzrez


So true. Also remember Cycle 23 had two distinct peaks (2001 & 2003) and an unusually deep minimum, too. This is such a nascent field of science we cannot put solar activity into neat little predictable boxes of human design.
From the Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union:

The peak of the Solar cycle 21 was at 1979, but high energetic Solar flares, or secondary peaks, occurred at the declining phase in 1981, 1982, and 1984 before the solar activity minimum in 1986. Also, the peak of the solar cycle 22 was at 1989 but high energetic solar flares occurred at the declining phase in 1991, 1992, and 1994, before the solar activity minimum in 1996. Then the secondary peaks were occurred during 2 to 3 years after the first peak, as deduced from the last five solar cycles. The period of 19 Oct. to 4 Nov. 2003 is the second peak of the solar cycle 23, where the main peak of the solar cycle 23 was at 2001. There are many terrestrial influences, due to the solar activity during Oct.-Nov. 2003. These influences are studied in details, especially the geomagnetic storms and their effects on humankind daily activity.
[link to journals.cambridge.org]

Twin Peaks: [link to www.spacetoday.org]
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/04/2012 02:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
lots of action today
i have a feeling this is a perset for what we have to look forward to this week
1429 looks like she wants to put on a good show for us on this rotation
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Howdy, NIN, thanks for putting an historical perspective on those SS numbers. In the 27-day rotation chart, you can see how quiet the x-ray flux has been since the X-flare. The proverbial calm before the storm perhaps.

[link to translate.google.de]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


hey Hugh :)
it is the clam that happens before the storm, and thats exactly why i went and got that info for this thread

so many people all over the place are saying this will be the weakest solar cycle in over 100 years
and from what i have seen, most are basing this on the sunspot number
this is calming the masses

but anyone can see with a simple google search, the low sunspot number does not tell us a story on a non eventfull solar cycle
let the flare blast off left and right
they are not what im think we should be so so concerned with
watch the CME's and Filaments!!
as the sun reverses polaritys at its max, sure we will see more solar flares, but keep a very close eye on the material the sun flings in our direction
 Quoting: NiNzrez


So true. Also remember Cycle 23 had two distinct peaks (2001 & 2003) and an unusually deep minimum, too. This is such a nascent field of science we cannot put solar activity into neat little predictable boxes of human design.
From the Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union:

The peak of the Solar cycle 21 was at 1979, but high energetic Solar flares, or secondary peaks, occurred at the declining phase in 1981, 1982, and 1984 before the solar activity minimum in 1986. Also, the peak of the solar cycle 22 was at 1989 but high energetic solar flares occurred at the declining phase in 1991, 1992, and 1994, before the solar activity minimum in 1996. Then the secondary peaks were occurred during 2 to 3 years after the first peak, as deduced from the last five solar cycles. The period of 19 Oct. to 4 Nov. 2003 is the second peak of the solar cycle 23, where the main peak of the solar cycle 23 was at 2001. There are many terrestrial influences, due to the solar activity during Oct.-Nov. 2003. These influences are studied in details, especially the geomagnetic storms and their effects on humankind daily activity.
[link to journals.cambridge.org]

Twin Peaks: [link to www.spacetoday.org]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


you brought up a good point
there has been evidence that some solar cycles have 2 peaks
around 2 years apart
with a lot of activity between these 2 peaks

Reported about solar cycle 23 :

The Resurgent Sun
Evidence is mounting that some solar cycles are double-peaked. The ongoing solar maximum may itself be a double
[link to science.nasa.gov]

Twin Peaks? However, solar scientists noticed in 2002 what some called an odd second peak in the solar cycle. Was activity on the Sun increasing again? Sunspots peppered the star's surface.
[link to www.spacetoday.org]

Dual-peak solar cycle distribution of intense geomagnetic storms
[link to www.sciencedirect.com]
[link to adsabs.harvard.edu]
[link to www.agu.org]

Scientists predict next solar cycle peak
Space weather forecasters can't agree on how intense coming storm will be

4/25/2007 9:30:02 PM ET
WASHINGTON — The peak of the next sunspot cycle is expected in late 2011 or mid-2012 — potentially affecting airline flights, communications satellites and electrical transmissions. But forecasters can't agree on how intense it will be
A 12-member panel charged with forecasting the solar cycle said Wednesday it is evenly split over whether the peak will be 90 sunspots or 140 sunspots.
Half of the specialists predicted a moderately strong cycle of 140 sunspots expected to peak in October of 2011, while the rest called for a moderately weak cycle of 90 sunspots peaking in August of 2012.
[link to www.msnbc.msn.com]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/04/2012 02:53 PM
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
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Hugh M Eye

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03/04/2012 02:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
2013....Asteroid of Doom approaches!

[link to rt.com]

Comet Garradd sports 3 tails.... closest approach to Earth is tonight.

[link to apod.nasa.gov]

Slow-moving meteor filmed over UK yesterday.



[link to www.youtube.com]
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/04/2012 03:00 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
here, we can see some GREAT graphs that show this solar cycle in comparison to older solar cycles
these graphs were last updated March 2nd 2012

Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update March 2, 2012)
[link to www.solen.info]

Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update March 2, 2012)
[link to www.solen.info]
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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Hugh M Eye

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03/04/2012 03:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
here, we can see some GREAT graphs that show this solar cycle in comparison to older solar cycles
these graphs were last updated March 2nd 2012

Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update March 2, 2012)
[link to www.solen.info]

Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update March 2, 2012)
[link to www.solen.info]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks for digging this up.banana2 That first chart shows that many of these cycles have big dips and rises. One cycle even had 4 peaks. Anyway, it doesn't matter too much how high the peak is, it only takes one well-placed event to set us back 200 years.

dynamiteuhoh
shadasonic

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NIN, HUGH,IWTB, what would happen if the sun wasn't allowed to complete its polar shift,if something affected this process. A good friend has the belief that this cycle has stalled because of particle manipulation by our interstellar fluff.I have my doubts, but the sun is different in its behavior and my mind drifts to what ifs.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Spittin'Cesium

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03/04/2012 05:40 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1429 has connected with the leader spots infront of it(un-numbered)..awaiting a *snap*: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

I wont say it,though I want to.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 5369266
United Kingdom
03/04/2012 05:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Does anyone know the configuration of 1429 and 1428 as of now?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
El Quisqueyano

User ID: 11916512
United States
03/04/2012 05:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Significant earthquake precursor signal detected on 03/04/12 at 2230utc/1730est. Possible 6+ to,possibly, above 7.

Radio Direction Finder has signal coming in East of France from somewhere out in the Northern, Mid to Southern portions of the Pacific plate to Alaska, Canada and Chile.


All who live anywhere in the vicinity of this line trajectory should be wary next 5 hours. Have escape plan ready and seek open terrain in the event of felt tremor. Secure most of your heavy objects and belongings around your home.


Namaste,

Hopefully I am wrong. Or it hits an unpopulated area.
Japan is also a likely target. Be wary.
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 5369266
United Kingdom
03/04/2012 05:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
here, we can see some GREAT graphs that show this solar cycle in comparison to older solar cycles
these graphs were last updated March 2nd 2012

Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update March 2, 2012)
[link to www.solen.info]

Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update March 2, 2012)
[link to www.solen.info]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Looks like she's either holding back for a flare-up or this cycle will be a bit of a whimper.

Thank you for those comparisons.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 11198416
Germany
03/04/2012 06:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 March 2012 2200 UTC

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:
Solar activity was moderate. A long duration M2/1N
flare was observed
at 04/1052Z from Region 1429 (N18E55).
Associated with the event was a 750 sfu Tenflare, Type IV Radio
Sweep, and a CME first visible in STEREO B COR 2 Imagery at 04/1210Z

(estimated speed of 840 km/s). This region is classified as a Dkc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration.
Further
analysis of the CME will be necessary
as imagery becomes available,
however there appears to be a partial Earth-directed component. A
glancing blow is possible from this event.


Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a slight chance for an X-class flare
from Region 1429.



Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions with an
isolated major storm period observed at high latitudes between
04/0900 - 1200Z. Activity was due to extended periods of the
negative Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field near -5
nT. The solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was relatively
steady near 380 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.


Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (05 March). Activity levels
are expected to increase on day 2 (06 March) due to a possible
glancing blow from today's CME associated with the M2/1N flare.

Unsettled to active conditions are expected with isolated minor
storm periods possible. Conditions are expected to settle down to
mostly quiet to unsettled conditions by day 3 (07 March) as the
effects of the CME wane. There is a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429 for the forecast period.



Event Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 15/15/15


[link to www.spaceref.com]


ohyeah
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 5369266
United Kingdom
03/04/2012 06:27 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 March 2012 2200 UTC

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:
Solar activity was moderate. A long duration M2/1N
flare was observed
at 04/1052Z from Region 1429 (N18E55).
Associated with the event was a 750 sfu Tenflare, Type IV Radio
Sweep, and a CME first visible in STEREO B COR 2 Imagery at 04/1210Z

(estimated speed of 840 km/s). This region is classified as a Dkc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration.
Further
analysis of the CME will be necessary
as imagery becomes available,
however there appears to be a partial Earth-directed component. A
glancing blow is possible from this event.


Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a slight chance for an X-class flare
from Region 1429.



Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions with an
isolated major storm period observed at high latitudes between
04/0900 - 1200Z. Activity was due to extended periods of the
negative Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field near -5
nT. The solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was relatively
steady near 380 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.


Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (05 March). Activity levels
are expected to increase on day 2 (06 March) due to a possible
glancing blow from today's CME associated with the M2/1N flare.

Unsettled to active conditions are expected with isolated minor
storm periods possible. Conditions are expected to settle down to
mostly quiet to unsettled conditions by day 3 (07 March) as the
effects of the CME wane. There is a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429 for the forecast period.



Event Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 15/15/15


[link to www.spaceref.com]


ohyeah
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Brilliant!

Thank you for that IWTB!
I just subbed to your YT Channel by the way : )

Good stuff,I look forward to more.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 11198416
Germany
03/04/2012 06:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
LOL thx, np hf

btw anyone check STEREO Behind EUVI we have some new action near 1429
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

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