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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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03/07/2012 12:39 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


peace
tomasgod1

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03/07/2012 12:42 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
...


hell yeah it is! haha
super glad you could make it to the show :)

and, i told you the this would happen tonight! haha ^^
 Quoting: NiNzrez


You got it right! I made it back just in time!
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Tom is here!cool2
 Quoting: finley


how's it lookin to you Tgod? G3 or G4 from this one?

good to see you back in action, now get back to work with the links:)

Finley..hi

oe..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 4526619


Not sure yet. We will get a better idea when we get some more data. Once this travels a little further out and we can see it from some other perspectives I will have a better guess. The data just hasn't updated far eneough yet.
 Quoting: tomasgod1

But the storm that is hitting now is looking wild..

Check out the Ao/AE(nT) on this!

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
_______

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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
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Hugh M Eye

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03/07/2012 12:49 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
NINzrez and any else near the Great Lakes region or the northern tier of US may be able to see aurora now.

Auroral oval:

[link to helios.swpc.noaa.gov]
TipKat

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03/07/2012 12:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
chicago nope can't see nothing here. :-(
tomasgod1

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03/07/2012 12:57 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
That you OE? I just posted from back in the thread! Too funny! haha
 Quoting: tomasgod1


it's me, otoc is hangin around too, quite the reunion and the sun giving us a show for the anniversary, congrats Ninz..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 4526619


It is pretty interesting,...

The timing I mean.

eq


Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


hi Z

I wanted to post an update on this expected filament eruption yesterday. I have been so busy with crap I couldn't do it. This was the filament that you could see rotating in off the eastern limb back from the 29th. If you go run SDO AIA 304 from the 1st thru the 5th you will see it snap in half near the polar cap off to the left and peel back to the center of the disk at the end of the 4th. You then see the ejection on Stereo Behind C2 begin by the update around 2:00 UTC on the 5th. Stereo A C2 doesnt update untill around 5 something and by then the ejection is well out from the disk in a huge mass. This also showed up on SOHO as a full halo CME. There was a CME prior to this from Region 1429 earlier around the 1200 hour if memory serves me and another one after but much smaller. A lot of the material was ejected northward but a very large amount of material was flung right back towards us.
_______

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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
tomasgod1

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03/07/2012 01:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
We will be reaching S1 anytime now.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


And we are there..

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX1
Serial Number: 285
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0526 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 0510 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
tomasgod1

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03/07/2012 01:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
ACE DATA

2012 03 07

0601 UT

Proton Density 18.9

Solar Wind 426.7

BynT -10.1

BznT -11.5
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
nerdrage88sasr

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03/07/2012 01:17 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
ACE DATA

2012 03 07

0601 UT

Proton Density 18.9

Solar Wind 426.7

BynT -10.1

BznT -11.5
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Keep us posted Tomas
Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Hugh M Eye

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03/07/2012 01:17 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
NINzrez and any else near the Great Lakes region or the northern tier of US may be able to see aurora now.

Auroral oval:

[link to helios.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Oops, I forgot about the full Moon.
Hugh M Eye

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03/07/2012 01:34 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
ACE 24 hr.Electrons and Protons:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE High-energy protons:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Kiruna Magnetometer:

[link to www.irf.se]

Tromso K-index at 6=Storm level

[link to flux.phys.uit.no]

NOAA Kp Index at 4=Unsettled

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The Bz is easing north now:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

GOES magnetometer rebounding:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
tomasgod1

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03/07/2012 01:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
A lot of deviation in the Kiruna Magnetometer. Both the x representing the North South componet(BznT), and the Y representing the East West(BynT)have a considerable amount of deviation as seen below. This indicates that we are getting "Wacked" hard by this storm.

[link to www.irf.se]

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 03/07/2012 01:37 AM
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Anonymous Coward
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03/07/2012 01:49 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
A lot of deviation in the Kiruna Magnetometer. Both the x representing the North South componet(BznT), and the Y representing the East West(BynT)have a considerable amount of deviation as seen below. This indicates that we are getting "Wacked" hard by this storm.

[link to www.irf.se]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Good. Hopefully, Sun Doom is here.
Anonymous Coward
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03/07/2012 01:54 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
A lot of deviation in the Kiruna Magnetometer. Both the x representing the North South componet(BznT), and the Y representing the East West(BynT)have a considerable amount of deviation as seen below. This indicates that we are getting "Wacked" hard by this storm.

[link to www.irf.se]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Good. Hopefully, Sun Doom is here.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9968554


Probably not tonight.
Anonymous Coward
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03/07/2012 01:58 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Then tomorrow. I am going to bed to dream of Sun Doom and hope to wake to the news of an X-50 with multiple CMEs, all earth directed. Sweet dreams all.
EndOfAll

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03/07/2012 01:59 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Is it just me or does our latest mfield shit look a bit sparatic. And looks like the interior of our msphere is heating up now..

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
EndOfAll
Silvanus

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03/07/2012 02:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Is it just me or does our latest mfield shit look a bit sparatic. And looks like the interior of our msphere is heating up now..

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: EndOfAll


not just you, particle density is spiking pretty good now. The magnetosphere is getting slammed that's for sure.
EndOfAll

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03/07/2012 02:04 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Is it just me or does our latest mfield shit look a bit sparatic. And looks like the interior of our msphere is heating up now..

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: EndOfAll


not just you, particle density is spiking pretty good now. The magnetosphere is getting slammed that's for sure.
 Quoting: Silvanus


Okie dokie, just looked quite sparatic.
EndOfAll
Silvanus

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
out of curiosity, I checked out when it started burning white hot and it's been about 2:15 so far it's been hitting for. This is quite a good thrashing!
Anonymous Coward
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03/07/2012 02:06 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Is it just me or does our latest mfield shit look a bit sparatic. And looks like the interior of our msphere is heating up now..

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: EndOfAll


not just you, particle density is spiking pretty good now. The magnetosphere is getting slammed that's for sure.
 Quoting: Silvanus


Okie dokie, just looked quite sparatic.
 Quoting: EndOfAll


I thought it looked odd too. Usually looks a bit more "uniform", for lack of a better word. X-ray flux looks like it's thinking of creeping up again too...
I think. I'm still a noob :)
Silvanus

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03/07/2012 02:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Is it just me or does our latest mfield shit look a bit sparatic. And looks like the interior of our msphere is heating up now..

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: EndOfAll


not just you, particle density is spiking pretty good now. The magnetosphere is getting slammed that's for sure.
 Quoting: Silvanus


Okie dokie, just looked quite sparatic.
 Quoting: EndOfAll


on closer inspection, both the temp and density charts show alot of spikes quite close together. I totally agree!
tomasgod1

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03/07/2012 02:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
A SEP event is underway. We have also just become magnetically conected to region 1429. We are currently just above 10 pfu which is S1 (solar
Radiation Storm level 1). Without any further flaring the latest predictions from NASA models are that we may reach 24 to 126 pfu. At 100 pfu we reach the S2 level. Of course further flaring from region 1429 will rapidly increase the precpitation of protons into the Ionosphere. When our "foot point" location, the area that we are magnetically conected to the sun at becomes located at or very near an active region we are given an "Active Proximity Alert" This is now the case as we have become connected to Region 1429 of all places. This connection allows Solar Energetic Particles such as protons and electrons to travel extremely fast and at a higher than normal rate during a flare. These particles already travel at approximately 80% the speed of light and start bombarding the Ionosphere within a few hours of a solar flare. During times that we are magnetically connected to a flaring region we have seeen these particles arrive at a much faster rate and in much higher concentrations. Below is NASAs current integral proton flux model..

. [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

You can run the model here by selecting UMA proton flux forecast...


[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
EndOfAll

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03/07/2012 02:13 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
A SEP event is underway. We have also just become magnetically conected to region 1429. We are currently just above 10 pfu which is S1 (solar
Radiation Storm level 1). Without any further flaring the latest predictions from NASA models are that we may reach 24 to 126 pfu. At 100 pfu we reach the S2 level. Of course further flaring from region 1429 will rapidly increase the precpitation of protons into the Ionosphere. When our "foot point" location, the area that we are magnetically conected to the sun at becomes located at or very near an active region we are given an "Active Proximity Alert" This is now the case as we have become connected to Region 1429 of all places. This connection allows Solar Energetic Particles such as protons and electrons to travel extremely fast and at a higher than normal rate during a flare. These particles already travel at approximately 80% the speed of light and start bombarding the Ionosphere within a few hours of a solar flare. During times that we are magnetically connected to a flaring region we have seeen these particles arrive at a much faster rate and in much higher concentrations. Below is NASAs current integral proton flux model..

. [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

You can run the model here by selecting UMA proton flux forecast...


[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


This explain the sudden shift in our mfield?
EndOfAll
Hugh M Eye

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03/07/2012 02:15 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Is it just me or does our latest mfield shit look a bit sparatic. And looks like the interior of our msphere is heating up now..

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: EndOfAll


Wow the Bz was going north briefly and "Wham!" dove straight back south. It looks worse than before. The ACE SW data is showing a big jump in velocity and increased density in the past 2 hrs. We're in the meat of the storm now.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

In the magnetopause/bow-shock simulation, when the purple "safe zone" touches or crosses the circle (geosynchronous orbit) our satellites may be at risk. There's more compression on the magnetosphere and more charged particles can get in. When the Bz goes green (north), there is generally more protection. I hope that makes sense.

[link to pixie.spasci.com]
Anonymous Coward
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03/07/2012 02:20 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
its official last one was x flare direct our way
EndOfAll

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03/07/2012 02:20 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Is it just me or does our latest mfield shit look a bit sparatic. And looks like the interior of our msphere is heating up now..

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: EndOfAll


Wow the Bz was going north briefly and "Wham!" dove straight back south. It looks worse than before. The ACE SW data is showing a big jump in velocity and increased density in the past 2 hrs. We're in the meat of the storm now.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

In the magnetopause/bow-shock simulation, when the purple "safe zone" touches or crosses the circle (geosynchronous orbit) our satellites may be at risk. There's more compression on the magnetosphere and more charged particles can get in. When the Bz goes green (north), there is generally more protection. I hope that makes sense.

[link to pixie.spasci.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ahh, makes perfect sense. And thnx again for that info last night. Helped me understand the dynamics way more.
EndOfAll
tomasgod1

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03/07/2012 02:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 678
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0637 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 07 0633 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
zacksavage

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03/07/2012 02:26 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 678
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0637 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 07 0633 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Thanks T and everyone for an interesting ride todayrockon

I wait with bated breath at what the future brings.


Later
Z
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
Anonymous Coward
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03/07/2012 02:28 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
This explain the sudden shift in our mfield?
 Quoting: EndOfAll


the Msphere is getting hit by a filament eruption or cme or combo from the sun a couple days ago..

the one thing i can see is that it's very Bz negative, not good, and 1429 ejecta will be coming steady for a while now.. a big burst thursday imo..
tomasgod1

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03/07/2012 02:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
ACE Data

2012 03 07

0723 UT

Proton Density 11.5

Solar Wind Speed 409.4

BynT 1.7

BznT -18.1
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Hugh M Eye

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03/07/2012 02:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
A SEP event is underway. We have also just become magnetically conected to region 1429. We are currently just above 10 pfu which is S1 (solar
Radiation Storm level 1). Without any further flaring the latest predictions from NASA models are that we may reach 24 to 126 pfu. At 100 pfu we reach the S2 level. Of course further flaring from region 1429 will rapidly increase the precpitation of protons into the Ionosphere. When our "foot point" location, the area that we are magnetically conected to the sun at becomes located at or very near an active region we are given an "Active Proximity Alert" This is now the case as we have become connected to Region 1429 of all places. This connection allows Solar Energetic Particles such as protons and electrons to travel extremely fast and at a higher than normal rate during a flare. These particles already travel at approximately 80% the speed of light and start bombarding the Ionosphere within a few hours of a solar flare. During times that we are magnetically connected to a flaring region we have seeen these particles arrive at a much faster rate and in much higher concentrations. Below is NASAs current integral proton flux model..

. [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

You can run the model here by selecting UMA proton flux forecast...


[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: tomasgod1

Tom, with this increased connectivity and velocity, is it possible the CME will get here before SOHO downlinks and the chimps get around to processing the images? -just kidding (I hope)
Sheeesh...we've been waiting for 9 hours! Maybe SOHO found the proton that broke the proverbial camel's back. With this kind of connectivity and the size of this active region we may see another Carrington-type event. And all the money and eggheads at NASA won't help one bit.

Goodnight all, I need some magneto-rest. Wake me up if there's another X-flare. Thanks.





GLP