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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Luisport

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03/07/2012 05:35 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
K 6 again... [link to www.n3kl.org]
Luisport

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03/07/2012 05:38 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SolarHam.com

há 13 minutos.



Please Note in the SWPC report below, they list the second X-Flare as being detected around Sunspot 1430. This is an error and the correct source was indeed 1429 as confirmed by EVE and SolarSoft.

Also note the expected arrival of the incoming CME cloud will be between 0600-1000Z early Thursday morning. This is within 8-12 hours of this posting.
EndOfAll

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03/07/2012 05:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SolarHam.com

há 13 minutos.



Please Note in the SWPC report below, they list the second X-Flare as being detected around Sunspot 1430. This is an error and the correct source was indeed 1429 as confirmed by EVE and SolarSoft.

Also note the expected arrival of the incoming CME cloud will be between 0600-1000Z early Thursday morning. This is within 8-12 hours of this posting.
 Quoting: Luisport


Glad I work a 12 tonight. Can keep an eye out for its arrival
EndOfAll
Anonymous Coward
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03/07/2012 05:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SIDC - RWC BELGIUM Wed Mar 7 2012, 2208 UT

A possible interplanetary shock wave was detected by SOHO/CELIAS at 12:00 UT today, although the corresponding jump in the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is unclear in the ACE data. The shock is probably associated with the full halo CME observed on the Sun on March 5. The southward IMF in the post-shock flow resulted in another intervals of K = 6 and K = 5 reported by NOAA. The solar wind speed in the post-shock flow reached 580 km/s. Due to this increase in the background solar wind speed, we update the prediction for the arrival time of the interplanetary counterpart of the full halo CME observed on March 7: we expect the ICME arrival around noon on March 8.
[link to sidc.oma.be]



off for today
grouphug
TipKat

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03/07/2012 05:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.cnn.com]

Here is the CNN video weather link talking about the X5 solar flare. Tip
Anonymous Coward
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03/07/2012 06:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
bump
Spittin'Cesium

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03/07/2012 06:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Shucks People!?
Check out the Alert Board!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

: ?

F.antastic
E.xpectations
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R.evelations

F.inal
E.xecution
A.nd
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E.xpression
A.s
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E.verything
A.nd
R.ealizing

That


F.reeing
E.xcellence
A.ffects
R.eality

F.oreign
E.mpires
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That

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A.
R.eason.

F.E.A.R.

: )

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 03/07/2012 07:21 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
psyoptics

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03/07/2012 06:39 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
how about this in NYC in the AM at 7:00 when i left for work the temp was to be 47 degree....then we topeped out at about 65 and they up the temps for the next 2 days....and oh
we are under a RED FLAG WARNING untill 7pm today as well as most of the centeral east coast.
a red flag is a fire warning?? i have never seen one as big as this and never never in early march...maybe aug. or july.
[link to forecast.weather.gov]

they have been putting these out alot lately?
if we are this dry today march 7th what will it be like in the dog days of summer. most like after a coulle more Xclass flare and stuff?

Last Edited by psyoptics on 03/07/2012 06:41 PM
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
El Quisqueyano

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03/07/2012 06:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
how about this in NYC in the AM at 7:00 when i left for work the temp was to be 47 degree....then we topeped out at about 65 and they up the temps for the next 2 days....and oh
we ae under a RED FLAG WARNING untill 7pm today as wel as most of the centeral east coast.
a red flag in a fire warning?? i have never seen one as big as this and never never in early march...maybe aug. or july.
[link to forecast.weather.gov]

they have been putting these out alot lately?
if we are this dry today march 7th what will it be like in the dog days of summer. most like after a coulle more Xclass flare and stuff?
 Quoting: psyoptics


Topped out at 73 degrees here in Franklin County Ohio. Should be in the mid to lower 40's this time of year here.
Kaylee

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03/07/2012 06:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ohgodno
When you're born you get a ticket to the freak show. When you're born in America, you get a front row seat.
~George Carlin


I do not hand out bad karma. Ever.

You can find me on paltalk from 8pm to 8am EST .. In the adult section look for the room "Addicted To The Virus". We welcome everyone.


ANHEDONIC

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03/07/2012 06:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
When to expect ramped up seismic activity? Once the CME hits? Starting tomorrow? EQ activity has only been moderate at best lately.

"You will not be punished for your anger, you will be punished by your anger"
Spittin'Cesium

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03/07/2012 06:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WATA50
Serial Number: 43
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1742 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 08
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

We have almost a Full-House on the Alert/Warning Board!

Stratwarm..not yet.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
El Quisqueyano

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03/07/2012 06:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WATA50
Serial Number: 43
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1742 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 08
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

We have almost a Full-House on the Alert/Warning Board!

Stratwarm..not yet.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Sort of like the perfect storm?
Kaylee

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03/07/2012 07:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm in PA. I'll be watching!
When you're born you get a ticket to the freak show. When you're born in America, you get a front row seat.
~George Carlin


I do not hand out bad karma. Ever.

You can find me on paltalk from 8pm to 8am EST .. In the adult section look for the room "Addicted To The Virus". We welcome everyone.


EndOfAll

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03/07/2012 07:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 1884 Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 2351 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 1883 Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0145 UTC Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 08 2359 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1 Serial Number: 345 Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 2355 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected Extension to Serial Number: 344 Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0030 UTC Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 08 2359 UTC Warning Condition: persistence Predicted NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.
EndOfAll
Anonymous Coward
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03/07/2012 07:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So I am right. flat x-rays. 1429 has lost its strength. Do not expect any more flares from this SS.100% confident.
Spittin'Cesium

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03/07/2012 07:27 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 1884 Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 2351 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 1883 Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0145 UTC Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 08 2359 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1 Serial Number: 345 Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 2355 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected Extension to Serial Number: 344 Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0030 UTC Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 08 2359 UTC Warning Condition: persistence Predicted NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.
 Quoting: EndOfAll


Are you looking at the currently in effect Alert/Warning-Board!? [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Filling up..something is gonna' give,somewhere : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Luisport

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03/07/2012 07:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So I am right. flat x-rays. 1429 has lost its strength. Do not expect any more flares from this SS.100% confident.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12097888


Solar Flare Risk M-Class: 85% X-Class: 40% [link to www.solarham.com]

Last Edited by Luisport on 03/07/2012 07:34 PM
El Quisqueyano

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03/07/2012 07:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This from AP;

But there is potential for widespread problems. Solar storms have three ways they can disrupt technology on Earth: with magnetic, radio and radiation emissions. This is an unusual situation when all three types of solar storm disruptions are likely to be strong, Kunches said.

That means "a whole host of things" could follow, he said.

The magnetic part of the storm has the potential to trip electrical power grids. Kunches said utility companies around the world have been alerted. The timing and speed of the storm determines whether it knocks off power grids, he said.
El Quisqueyano

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03/07/2012 07:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
She's thinking about what to do next;

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/07/2012 07:33 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SIDC - RWC BELGIUM Wed Mar 7 2012, 2208 UT

A possible interplanetary shock wave was detected by SOHO/CELIAS at 12:00 UT today, although the corresponding jump in the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is unclear in the ACE data. The shock is probably associated with the full halo CME observed on the Sun on March 5. The southward IMF in the post-shock flow resulted in another intervals of K = 6 and K = 5 reported by NOAA. The solar wind speed in the post-shock flow reached 580 km/s. Due to this increase in the background solar wind speed, we update the prediction for the arrival time of the interplanetary counterpart of the full halo CME observed on March 7: we expect the ICME arrival around noon on March 8.
[link to sidc.oma.be]



off for today
grouphug
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


remember also, there was coronal hole winds to arrive today or tomorrow from southern CH506
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
these winds helped pave the way for this CME to come in faster
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
El Quisqueyano

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03/07/2012 07:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SIDC - RWC BELGIUM Wed Mar 7 2012, 2208 UT

A possible interplanetary shock wave was detected by SOHO/CELIAS at 12:00 UT today, although the corresponding jump in the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is unclear in the ACE data. The shock is probably associated with the full halo CME observed on the Sun on March 5. The southward IMF in the post-shock flow resulted in another intervals of K = 6 and K = 5 reported by NOAA. The solar wind speed in the post-shock flow reached 580 km/s. Due to this increase in the background solar wind speed, we update the prediction for the arrival time of the interplanetary counterpart of the full halo CME observed on March 7: we expect the ICME arrival around noon on March 8.
[link to sidc.oma.be]



off for today
grouphug
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


remember also, there was coronal hole winds to arrive today or tomorrow from southern CH506
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
these winds helped pave the way for this CME to come in faster
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Bug out bag ready, hunker down and prepare. Could possibly disrupt electrical grid.
Spittin'Cesium

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03/07/2012 07:37 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So I am right. flat x-rays. 1429 has lost its strength. Do not expect any more flares from this SS.100% confident.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12097888


The X-Ray Flux is still showing quite alot of crackling C-Flares until just now..dipped just below C-Level activity,for now at least : )

1429 and 30 still look pretty chaotic and ugly to me [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

28 I think may be shrinking a little but still looks a little messy..I would'nt write any of them off just yet!
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Luisport

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03/07/2012 07:39 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So I am right. flat x-rays. 1429 has lost its strength. Do not expect any more flares from this SS.100% confident.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12097888


The X-Ray Flux is still showing quite alot of crackling C-Flares until just now..dipped just below C-Level activity,for now at least : )

1429 and 30 still look pretty chaotic and ugly to me [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

28 I think may be shrinking a little but still looks a little messy..I would'nt write any of them off just yet!
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Solar Flare Risk M-Class: 85% X-Class: 40% [link to www.solarham.com]
Mister ObviousModerator
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03/07/2012 07:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
One year anniversary of this thread!
Spittin'Cesium

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03/07/2012 07:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
She's thinking about what to do next;

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


All balled up!

Take a look at this image,tip the screen forward a little if needed [link to www2.nict.go.jp]

See how she's captured what little there is out there within the Magnetosphere(obviously not entirely)..there is not much of a stream from the Magnetos' Tail-end in the above image.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 03/07/2012 07:55 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 11850216
United States
03/07/2012 07:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So I am right. flat x-rays. 1429 has lost its strength. Do not expect any more flares from this SS.100% confident.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12097888


How many times does your 100% have to be shot down ??? There are links included on almost every post here, where are yours ???
RTS REDUX

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03/07/2012 07:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Skip to 0:25


[link to www.youtube.com]

:IWTBclap:
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


OH, NOOOO!...Not peyton manning!

Seriously, IWTB, could you please (in your next vid)
compare THIS-

zoom to 1429-
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

to THIS>
[link to lh4.ggpht.com]

I almost shit myself when I found the pic of Carrington's drawing from 1859 looks remarkably like our new friend #1429!

Hard to believe, but 1429 looks to be still growing...as it gets even MORE Earth-facing. As a debunker of all the fake doom on GLP, I am awed by the potential for TRUE terror. Driving around today, I couldn't help but notice all of the telephone wires, electrical transmission towers, cell-phone repeater towers, not to mention the plumbing and gas pipelines underground which will begin surging w/ electrical current from a severe geo-magnetic sub-storm. Worst of all, I'm 25 miles from Salem Nuclear Power Plant. My sister and family think I'm loony for even having a care about this "sword of Damocles" hanging over us.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


we had this back in 2003, don`t know if it erupted when it was facing earth though

x17
 Quoting: Nacht im Walde


i thought it was
but had to go look it up...

this sunspot you posted was the sunspot that produced the record breaking X28 flare on Nov 4, 2003
the image you posted is from when the sunspot was directly earth facing, just a few days before it rotated to the western limb
that is where it let out an amazing X flare

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
"A day later, word came from the SEC that their best estimate was X28, with a peak around 19:50 UT. Although the exact number will likely be debated for some time, it is now official: We have a new #1 X-ray flare for the record books."

can someone that has a bit of time and know how, please do a close up of the 2003 spot, 1429 and the carrington drawing
and make them so that the image of the actual sunspot on each is around the same size??
This way, we can compair 1429, directly to the carrington drawing, as well as the 2003 #1 X flare of all time

im sure im not the only one that is curious how closley they look alike
maybe this can give us a better insight as to what 1429 still may have in store for us

according to NOAA, over the remainder of this week we still have a 80% chance for M flares, and 30% chance for X flares

lets not let our guards down just yet when it comes to the Xray flux/solar flares
The main event 1429 has for us just may not have happened yat
 Quoting: NiNzrez


That picture that was posted is just after a X-17 flare that occurred early on October 28

[link to spaceweather.com]


on Nov 4th the same Sunspot let loose with the X-28

[link to spaceweather.com]
"If one understands that socialism is not a share-the-wealth programme, but is in reality a method to consolidate and control the wealth, then the seeming paradox of super-rich men promoting socialism becomes no paradox at all. Instead, it becomes logical, even the perfect tool of power-seeking megalomaniacs.

Communism or more accurately, socialism, is not a movement of the downtrodden masses, but of the economic elite."

Gary Allen

NONE DARE CALL IT CONSPIRACY
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Hitler was a leftist

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siggif6
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Spittin'Cesium

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03/07/2012 07:53 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So I am right. flat x-rays. 1429 has lost its strength. Do not expect any more flares from this SS.100% confident.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12097888


The X-Ray Flux is still showing quite alot of crackling C-Flares until just now..dipped just below C-Level activity,for now at least : )

1429 and 30 still look pretty chaotic and ugly to me [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

28 I think may be shrinking a little but still looks a little messy..I would'nt write any of them off just yet!
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Solar Flare Risk M-Class: 85% X-Class: 40% [link to www.solarham.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


Yep,thank you Luis : )

1429 still has a B-G-D Configuration..plus it could still play with 30 potentially.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
EndOfAll

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03/07/2012 07:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Our mfield looks very strange right now.... Any ideas?

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
EndOfAll

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