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SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)

 
shadasonic

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03/07/2012 08:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Whats the highest proton absorption you guys have seen,i've never seen d Rap chart all the way full one more decent storm and we're off the charts. I imagine we're gonna have some shaking in a couple days
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
EndOfAll

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03/07/2012 08:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Our mfield looks very strange right now.... Any ideas?

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: EndOfAll


With all that was happening today,and as quiet as this program has been, I'm starting to believe this simulation has been simulated .....
 Quoting: TS66


Id have to agree. Way too messy for as calm as its been since last night. Curious what there hiding exactly..
 Quoting: EndOfAll


I think the Solar-Wind should be a little higher than Nict is showing: [link to umtof.umd.edu]

Unless the above link is a measure of S-W in another place?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I agree winds are very weak. Considering the CME thays on its way...
EndOfAll
Eimaj

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03/07/2012 08:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
...


With all that was happening today,and as quiet as this program has been, I'm starting to believe this simulation has been simulated .....
 Quoting: TS66


Id have to agree. Way too messy for as calm as its been since last night. Curious what there hiding exactly..
 Quoting: EndOfAll


I think the Solar-Wind should be a little higher than Nict is showing: [link to umtof.umd.edu]

Unless the above link is a measure of S-W in another place?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I agree winds are very weak. Considering the CME thays on its way...
 Quoting: EndOfAll


When are they saying this cme is gona hit!???
This time I feel lost in a world so cold and lonely. This time I feel broke and if I left no one would even know me ...
Doompa Loompa

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03/07/2012 08:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
I found a pretty informative web page on solar storms while looking for info on how they can effect satellites. Especially how they effect the reliability of real time solar information during solar storms. It doesn't really address what I'm looking for but answers questions I often see here.

[link to solarcellcentral.com]
shadasonic

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03/07/2012 08:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
...


Id have to agree. Way too messy for as calm as its been since last night. Curious what there hiding exactly..
 Quoting: EndOfAll


I think the Solar-Wind should be a little higher than Nict is showing: [link to umtof.umd.edu]

Unless the above link is a measure of S-W in another place?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I agree winds are very weak. Considering the CME thays on its way...
 Quoting: EndOfAll


When are they saying this cme is gona hit!???
 Quoting: Eimaj

This is normal right before it hits, it reminds me of a tsunami,water recedes and everything is calm before hell breaks loose
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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03/07/2012 08:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
...


I think the Solar-Wind should be a little higher than Nict is showing: [link to umtof.umd.edu]

Unless the above link is a measure of S-W in another place?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I agree winds are very weak. Considering the CME thays on its way...
 Quoting: EndOfAll


When are they saying this cme is gona hit!???
 Quoting: Eimaj

This is normal right before it hits, it reminds me of a tsunami,water recedes and everything is calm before hell breaks loose
 Quoting: shadasonic


Its not gonna be to long, I can feel it, meridian tingle with soft vibrations,gotta be the retracting electromagnetism. Never gets old!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
EndOfAll

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03/07/2012 08:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
...


I agree winds are very weak. Considering the CME thays on its way...
 Quoting: EndOfAll


When are they saying this cme is gona hit!???
 Quoting: Eimaj

This is normal right before it hits, it reminds me of a tsunami,water recedes and everything is calm before hell breaks loose
 Quoting: shadasonic


Its not gonna be to long, I can feel it, meridian tingle with soft vibrations,gotta be the retracting electromagnetism. Never gets old!
 Quoting: shadasonic



They were saying its supposed to be here within the next 8-12 hours. But that was about 2 ago. Post is on the page before this one.
EndOfAll
EndOfAll

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03/07/2012 08:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Check out the finger.. tight mag group.

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
EndOfAll
Anonymous Coward
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03/07/2012 08:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Our mfield looks very strange right now.... Any ideas?

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: EndOfAll


I think its just taking a little breather, after all the work it did last night, it needs its strength to hold off the next...and maybe it knows so is just reserving its power.
Anonymous Coward
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03/07/2012 08:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Keep watch [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Spittin'Cesium

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03/07/2012 08:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
...


Id have to agree. Way too messy for as calm as its been since last night. Curious what there hiding exactly..
 Quoting: EndOfAll


I think the Solar-Wind should be a little higher than Nict is showing: [link to umtof.umd.edu]

Unless the above link is a measure of S-W in another place?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I agree winds are very weak. Considering the CME thays on its way...
 Quoting: EndOfAll


When are they saying this cme is gona hit!???
 Quoting: Eimaj


While I was just making a Coffee they had a warning from NASA on the Radio saying they expect a double whammy from 2 Flares(should be CME's)at around 7:00AM UK Time and that it may impact our Power Grids etc.

That would be 8:00AM UTC I think?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
shadasonic

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03/07/2012 08:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Our mfield looks very strange right now.... Any ideas?

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: EndOfAll


I think its just taking a little breather, after all the work it did last night, it needs its strength to hold off the next...and maybe it knows so is just reserving its power.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12137518


IT knows
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
EndOfAll

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03/07/2012 08:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: TS66


Starting to rise.. protons going up too

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
EndOfAll
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

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03/07/2012 09:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Talk at ya all tomorrow....i hope...;)....best wishes if not.....
Anonymous Coward
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03/07/2012 09:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
Spittin'Cesium

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03/07/2012 09:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Talk at ya all tomorrow....i hope...;)....best wishes if not.....
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


Night L'n'T!

It's due at 7:00am GMT....hopefully will be able to talk at you later also!

: )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
MARsSPEED
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03/07/2012 09:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Good evening everyone! Just wanted to say the reason everything is so quiet is because of a tsunami effect. The energy is "sucked" away from us after such a large explosion due to magnetism. Its literally the calm before the storm. Correct me if I am wrong, also I have never seen such "suck back" of solar wind however I have only been following solar activity for a few years.
Anonymous Coward
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03/07/2012 09:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Is there greater signifigance to being the Sun facing side when it hits?
shadasonic

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03/07/2012 09:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Is there greater signifigance to being the Sun facing side when it hits?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9178101


The worst part of the storm is when the magnetic field whips back after being pulled out , huge instability at this point.Like a rubber band snapping only this band brings a writhing energy mass with it
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
MARsSPEED
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03/07/2012 09:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Is there greater signifigance to being the Sun facing side when it hits?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9178101


The worst part of the storm is when the magnetic field whips back after being pulled out , huge instability at this point.Like a rubber band snapping only this band brings a writhing energy mass with it
 Quoting: shadasonic


True! One thing though, if no major EQ's happen, it may dispel the rumor that Geomagnetic storms cause EQs. We will see!
RTS REDUX

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03/07/2012 09:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
x17


That picture that was posted is just after a X-17 flare that occurred early on October 28

[link to spaceweather.com]


on Nov 4th the same Sunspot let loose with the X-28

[link to spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


On the morning of Tuesday, October 27, Sunspot group 486 was facing the Earth when a region ripped open and a tremendous outpouring of solar material erupted in a spectacular X 17.2 class flare whose Coronal Mass Ejection was aimed directly at the Earth. The sequential images shown below are from the SOHO space satellite and show the bright flare as it appeared to the instrument's camera. Just 36 hours later, the same sunspot region erupted again, unleashing an X 10.0 class solar flare. Both fast moving CME's struck the Earth during the nights of October 28 and 29 producing the fantastic auroral displays shown above.

[link to cde.nwc.edu]
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/07/2012 09:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
One year anniversary of this thread!
 Quoting: Mister Obvious


hey MO :)
can you believe a year already?!
amazing! :)
northerntomcat

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03/07/2012 09:41 PM
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Well done on one year thanks for all the info you have given us.hf
If you cross country ski, start with a small country.
disclosure_2011

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03/07/2012 09:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
x17


That picture that was posted is just after a X-17 flare that occurred early on October 28

[link to spaceweather.com]


on Nov 4th the same Sunspot let loose with the X-28

[link to spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


On the morning of Tuesday, October 27, Sunspot group 486 was facing the Earth when a region ripped open and a tremendous outpouring of solar material erupted in a spectacular X 17.2 class flare whose Coronal Mass Ejection was aimed directly at the Earth. The sequential images shown below are from the SOHO space satellite and show the bright flare as it appeared to the instrument's camera. Just 36 hours later, the same sunspot region erupted again, unleashing an X 10.0 class solar flare. Both fast moving CME's struck the Earth during the nights of October 28 and 29 producing the fantastic auroral displays shown above.

[link to cde.nwc.edu]

 Quoting: RTS REDUX


If we have lived thru a big flare & CME then we will definetly live thru this one as well. So suntards nothing to worry about.Doom cancelled...:-)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12145152

So are we going to be hit by multiple CME's? What is the lineup looking like?
MARsSPEED
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03/07/2012 09:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
:x17:


That picture that was posted is just after a X-17 flare that occurred early on October 28

[link to spaceweather.com]


on Nov 4th the same Sunspot let loose with the X-28

[link to spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


On the morning of Tuesday, October 27, Sunspot group 486 was facing the Earth when a region ripped open and a tremendous outpouring of solar material erupted in a spectacular X 17.2 class flare whose Coronal Mass Ejection was aimed directly at the Earth. The sequential images shown below are from the SOHO space satellite and show the bright flare as it appeared to the instrument's camera. Just 36 hours later, the same sunspot region erupted again, unleashing an X 10.0 class solar flare. Both fast moving CME's struck the Earth during the nights of October 28 and 29 producing the fantastic auroral displays shown above.

[link to cde.nwc.edu]

 Quoting: RTS REDUX


If we have lived thru a big flare & CME then we will definetly live thru this one as well. So suntards nothing to worry about.Doom cancelled...:-)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12145152


Grrrrrrrr, no dip smart ass. But how many times must it be said that it is not the size of the flare that matters but the motion and mass of the CME!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thats what she said.....
old guard

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03/07/2012 09:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
We all love the thread, Nin. Congrats and Godspeed.
TipKat

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03/07/2012 09:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
True! One thing though, if no major EQ's happen, it may dispel the rumor that Geomagnetic storms cause EQs. We will see!


I am not so sure we can totally dispel Geomagnetic storms cause EQs. There are probably other factors involved. Both EQ and Solar science are still in their infancy compared to other Science out there. I think the longer and the more data scientists work with the better our understanding will be. There are probably other forces at work that we have not begun to understand....maybe havent't discovered yet.

Probably better to state...that up until NOW there is no 100% proof positive evidence that Geomagnetic storms cause EQs. I would definately agree with that statment. ;-)
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/07/2012 09:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
There was 2 CME's. They combined for the most part, with a little mass lagging behind the main material. The ejection speed was estimated at 580 km/s -

I personaly have the arrival time at between 05:00 and 11:00 UTC March 8th, spaceweather March 8th at 0625 UT, SIDC has arrival time at noon tomorrow (UTC time?), Kevin at solarham has the arrival at "between 0600-1000 UTC", SWPC has the arrival at "sometime between 0600-1000Z".

at the time of this post, it is 02:57 UTC

What i suggest, is be watching for this CME from NOW untill it arrives
If you need to see what time it is in UTC, go to google and type in "UTC Time" and google will display the UTC time for you

SWPC
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active initially on day 1 (08 March) but is expected
to increase to major storm levels with a likelihood for isolated
severe storm levels after the arrival of the CME from todays
X5/full halo event. The arrival time is estimated to be sometime
between 0600-1000Z. Minor to major storm levels are expected to
continue partway (6-12 hours) into the second day (09 March), but a
decline to predominantly active levels is expected for the remainder
of the day. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the
third day (10 March). The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to continue through the first day and is also likely to
continue partway through the second day. The greater than 100 Mev
proton event is expected to slowly decline over the next 24 hours
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


as i have posted already earlier today, we need to also remember, there was coronal hole winds to arrive today or tomorrow from southern CH506
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
these winds (along with the CME that arrived early today) helped pave the way for this CME to come in faster
The magnetosphere needs around 24hrs to snap back into shape after the last of a CME has hit. As we know, we got a good hit earlier this morning. This CME impace lasted into a good part of the day.
Because of this, the magnetosphere will have little time to recouperate from todays CME hit, before this big CME arrives early tomorrow.

What will happen? will it take out electric grids?
well the only answer is... no one can say for sure
all we can do is be aware when a dangerous looking CME, like this one, is due to arrive
and be ready for whatever may happen (if anything)

What i can say, is that the combination of all solar events we have seen occure over the last 2 days has put be on high alert for tomorrow

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/07/2012 10:33 PM
old guard

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03/07/2012 09:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Nict is starting to get weird...

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
Anonymous Coward
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03/07/2012 09:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Quite quite quite now Boom! Yea Baby!


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