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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/07/2012 09:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
One year anniversary of this thread!
 Quoting: Mister Obvious


hey MO :)
can you believe a year already?!
amazing! :)
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
northerntomcat

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03/07/2012 09:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well done on one year thanks for all the info you have given us.hf
If you cross country ski, start with a small country.
disclosure_2011

User ID: 1544142
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03/07/2012 09:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
x17


That picture that was posted is just after a X-17 flare that occurred early on October 28

[link to spaceweather.com]


on Nov 4th the same Sunspot let loose with the X-28

[link to spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


On the morning of Tuesday, October 27, Sunspot group 486 was facing the Earth when a region ripped open and a tremendous outpouring of solar material erupted in a spectacular X 17.2 class flare whose Coronal Mass Ejection was aimed directly at the Earth. The sequential images shown below are from the SOHO space satellite and show the bright flare as it appeared to the instrument's camera. Just 36 hours later, the same sunspot region erupted again, unleashing an X 10.0 class solar flare. Both fast moving CME's struck the Earth during the nights of October 28 and 29 producing the fantastic auroral displays shown above.

[link to cde.nwc.edu]

 Quoting: RTS REDUX


If we have lived thru a big flare & CME then we will definetly live thru this one as well. So suntards nothing to worry about.Doom cancelled...:-)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12145152

So are we going to be hit by multiple CME's? What is the lineup looking like?
MARsSPEED
User ID: 1492929
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03/07/2012 09:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
:x17:


That picture that was posted is just after a X-17 flare that occurred early on October 28

[link to spaceweather.com]


on Nov 4th the same Sunspot let loose with the X-28

[link to spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: RTS REDUX


On the morning of Tuesday, October 27, Sunspot group 486 was facing the Earth when a region ripped open and a tremendous outpouring of solar material erupted in a spectacular X 17.2 class flare whose Coronal Mass Ejection was aimed directly at the Earth. The sequential images shown below are from the SOHO space satellite and show the bright flare as it appeared to the instrument's camera. Just 36 hours later, the same sunspot region erupted again, unleashing an X 10.0 class solar flare. Both fast moving CME's struck the Earth during the nights of October 28 and 29 producing the fantastic auroral displays shown above.

[link to cde.nwc.edu]

 Quoting: RTS REDUX


If we have lived thru a big flare & CME then we will definetly live thru this one as well. So suntards nothing to worry about.Doom cancelled...:-)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12145152


Grrrrrrrr, no dip smart ass. But how many times must it be said that it is not the size of the flare that matters but the motion and mass of the CME!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thats what she said.....
old guard

User ID: 1405158
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03/07/2012 09:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We all love the thread, Nin. Congrats and Godspeed.
TipKat

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03/07/2012 09:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
True! One thing though, if no major EQ's happen, it may dispel the rumor that Geomagnetic storms cause EQs. We will see!


I am not so sure we can totally dispel Geomagnetic storms cause EQs. There are probably other factors involved. Both EQ and Solar science are still in their infancy compared to other Science out there. I think the longer and the more data scientists work with the better our understanding will be. There are probably other forces at work that we have not begun to understand....maybe havent't discovered yet.

Probably better to state...that up until NOW there is no 100% proof positive evidence that Geomagnetic storms cause EQs. I would definately agree with that statment. ;-)
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/07/2012 09:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There was 2 CME's. They combined for the most part, with a little mass lagging behind the main material. The ejection speed was estimated at 580 km/s -

I personaly have the arrival time at between 05:00 and 11:00 UTC March 8th, spaceweather March 8th at 0625 UT, SIDC has arrival time at noon tomorrow (UTC time?), Kevin at solarham has the arrival at "between 0600-1000 UTC", SWPC has the arrival at "sometime between 0600-1000Z".

at the time of this post, it is 02:57 UTC

What i suggest, is be watching for this CME from NOW untill it arrives
If you need to see what time it is in UTC, go to google and type in "UTC Time" and google will display the UTC time for you

SWPC
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active initially on day 1 (08 March) but is expected
to increase to major storm levels with a likelihood for isolated
severe storm levels after the arrival of the CME from todays
X5/full halo event. The arrival time is estimated to be sometime
between 0600-1000Z. Minor to major storm levels are expected to
continue partway (6-12 hours) into the second day (09 March), but a
decline to predominantly active levels is expected for the remainder
of the day. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the
third day (10 March). The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to continue through the first day and is also likely to
continue partway through the second day. The greater than 100 Mev
proton event is expected to slowly decline over the next 24 hours
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


as i have posted already earlier today, we need to also remember, there was coronal hole winds to arrive today or tomorrow from southern CH506
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
these winds (along with the CME that arrived early today) helped pave the way for this CME to come in faster
The magnetosphere needs around 24hrs to snap back into shape after the last of a CME has hit. As we know, we got a good hit earlier this morning. This CME impace lasted into a good part of the day.
Because of this, the magnetosphere will have little time to recouperate from todays CME hit, before this big CME arrives early tomorrow.

What will happen? will it take out electric grids?
well the only answer is... no one can say for sure
all we can do is be aware when a dangerous looking CME, like this one, is due to arrive
and be ready for whatever may happen (if anything)

What i can say, is that the combination of all solar events we have seen occure over the last 2 days has put be on high alert for tomorrow

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/07/2012 10:33 PM
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Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
old guard

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03/07/2012 09:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nict is starting to get weird...

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 958290
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03/07/2012 09:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Quite quite quite now Boom! Yea Baby!
MARsSPEED
User ID: 1492929
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03/07/2012 10:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
She's waking again!

[link to solarham.com]
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 10498853
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03/07/2012 10:00 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good evening everyone! Just wanted to say the reason everything is so quiet is because of a tsunami effect. The energy is "sucked" away from us after such a large explosion due to magnetism. Its literally the calm before the storm. Correct me if I am wrong, also I have never seen such "suck back" of solar wind however I have only been following solar activity for a few years.
 Quoting: MARsSPEED 1492929


+1
correct :)
we see the nict look like the before almost all CME arrivals

if we look at the iswa CME arrival simulation
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
we can see that goodard expects this CME to be very dence when it arrives
(refer to the scale below the simulation)
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/07/2012 10:01 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
She's waking again!

[link to solarham.com]
 Quoting: MARsSPEED 1492929


C7.2 flare
out of no where
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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03/07/2012 10:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
User ID: 12097888
India
"So I am right. flat x-rays. 1429 has lost its strength. Do not expect any more flares from this SS.100% confident."
"


Hey india anon, something made them up the class m chance to 85% and the class x to 40% for the next 48hrs, so something there that has the potential to give us a second blast. We will see if your 100% chance of no more flares turns out to be 100% chance for a double whammy!

Also ran across this about a recent electric grid simulation from the electrical standards guys themselves.

[link to spectrum.ieee.org]


gasp
Anonymous Coward
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03/07/2012 10:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
why does the nict look so weird?
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Can anyone explain?
EndOfAll

User ID: 2563689
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03/07/2012 10:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...0 southern field lines... Strange.

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
EndOfAll
MARsSPEED
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03/07/2012 10:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
why does the nict look so weird?
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Can anyone explain?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2583771


Read the first post on thos page.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 2583771
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03/07/2012 10:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
why does the nict look so weird?
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Can anyone explain?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2583771


Read the first post on thos page.
 Quoting: MARsSPEED 1492929


Thank you, sorry I opened it up before reading this page and was very confused.

Appreciate the response.
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 12144599
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03/07/2012 10:14 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I found a pretty informative web page on solar storms while looking for info on how they can effect satellites. Especially how they effect the reliability of real time solar information during solar storms. It doesn't really address what I'm looking for but answers questions I often see here.

[link to solarcellcentral.com]
 Quoting: Doompa Loompa


Here's what i have on satellite trouble-

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to conceptactivityresearchvault.wordpress.com]

And PDF: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA Updates:
[link to www.oso.noaa.gov]

:ufodildo:
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
RTS REDUX

User ID: 8620349
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03/07/2012 10:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Also ran across this about a recent electric grid simulation from the electrical standards guys themselves.

[link to spectrum.ieee.org]


gasp
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1516039


[...] geomagnetic storms can occur at any point in the solar cycle, and not all solar flares or coronal mass ejections will trigger a storm. Most of them, after all, will be pointed away from Earth. Of the earthbound ones, the damage they do depends on, among other things, the polarity of the magnetic field carried by the solar wind. If the polarity is the same as that of Earth's magnetic field, most of the particles will be deflected harmlessly into space.

umm..does anyone know what the polarity is on this one??
"If one understands that socialism is not a share-the-wealth programme, but is in reality a method to consolidate and control the wealth, then the seeming paradox of super-rich men promoting socialism becomes no paradox at all. Instead, it becomes logical, even the perfect tool of power-seeking megalomaniacs.

Communism or more accurately, socialism, is not a movement of the downtrodden masses, but of the economic elite."

Gary Allen

NONE DARE CALL IT CONSPIRACY
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Hitler was a leftist

[link to constitutionalistnc.tripod.com]
EndOfAll

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03/07/2012 10:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
why does the nict look so weird?
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Can anyone explain?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2583771


Read the first post on thos page.
 Quoting: MARsSPEED 1492929


Get it. But why is it eating the entire southern field...
EndOfAll
Hugh M Eye

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03/07/2012 10:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The 1989 Storm & Blackout:



[link to www.youtube.com]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
XenVal

User ID: 11993009
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03/07/2012 10:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
She's waking again!

[link to solarham.com]
 Quoting: MARsSPEED 1492929


C7.2 flare
out of no where
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Amazing... because the past three X-flares (+ CMEs) and now these little ones are apparently culminating into a de facto "Kill Shot". Except, it's not a RED PULSE (KNOWING scenario).

It'll definitely affect the GRID. At least, that's what I'm expecting.
188.
old guard

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03/07/2012 10:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks that the BZ is positive right now . We are getting a radiation storm

[link to www.solarham]
Hugh M Eye

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03/07/2012 10:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NOAA Video Update 3/07/2012:



[link to www.youtube.com]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Doompa Loompa

User ID: 9481145
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03/07/2012 10:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I found a pretty informative web page on solar storms while looking for info on how they can effect satellites. Especially how they effect the reliability of real time solar information during solar storms. It doesn't really address what I'm looking for but answers questions I often see here.

[link to solarcellcentral.com]
 Quoting: Doompa Loompa


Here's what i have on satellite trouble-

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to conceptactivityresearchvault.wordpress.com]

And PDF: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA Updates:
[link to www.oso.noaa.gov]

:ufodildo:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


thank you
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/07/2012 10:27 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
just a little note so i can share some news that excited me :)
the Solar Alerts Blog got 8,701 hits in the last 24hrs

wooohoooo!

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/07/2012 10:27 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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03/07/2012 10:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Anyone feel like speculating on the chances of major grid damage in the next twenty four hours?
XenVal

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03/07/2012 10:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
just a little note so i can share some news that excited me :)
the Solar Alerts Blog got 8,701 hits in the last 24hrs

wooohoooo!
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Well earned. And of course!
188.
XenVal

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03/07/2012 10:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Anyone feel like speculating on the chances of major grid damage in the next twenty four hours?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2583771


Doesn't work that quick. It's more like during the weekend.

Wondering how Monday will be like.

Hopefully it happens "that quick". I'm excited for sudden change.

[I don't call it DOOM. I'd rather not project that into my field of reality.][As we know that "you are what you eat", also, you are what you think. Sound good?]

Last Edited by XENnex on 03/07/2012 10:30 PM
188.
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/07/2012 10:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
She's waking again!

[link to solarham.com]
 Quoting: MARsSPEED 1492929


C7.2 flare
out of no where
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Amazing... because the past three X-flares (+ CMEs) and now these little ones are apparently culminating into a de facto "Kill Shot". Except, it's not a RED PULSE (KNOWING scenario).

It'll definitely affect the GRID. At least, that's what I'm expecting.
 Quoting: XenVal


yeah, i feel a bit uneasy about this CME arrival
lets hold tight and see what it brings
were all ong glp
we should have already prepared for the worst
and enjoy the best
:)
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?

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