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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 11850216
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03/08/2012 09:35 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Honest question: Is it safe to let my kids play outside later this afternoon (assuming it hasn't all gone to hell before then) or should we all stay inside until this event is over? We're on the US East coast.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5240732


No less safe than any other day.
 Quoting: Doompa Loompa


I don't know about that .....
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
I'm considering whether I should go out and garden today. Of course it's hard to garden and keep track of all this at the same time !!! lol
 Quoting: TS66


I think they have an App for that.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11888653


LOL ... yes you too are probably right. Unfortunately for me, I don't do cells unless absolutely necessary. :)
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 09:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Pretty excited magnetic field showing here ....

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
alexisj9

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03/08/2012 09:39 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This storm seams weaker that everyone thaught... it's possible we are only seing the begining and later it became stronger?
 Quoting: Luisport


Agreed, not really sure why/what is going on, but it does seem to be much more lax then anticipated.

Not Complaining though :)
 Quoting: PolarBear418


Not sure it's weaker then expected or they wouldn't have shut down the usual satellites. We are just not getting the data we can normally get.
Luisport

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03/08/2012 09:40 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Pretty excited magnetic field showing here ....

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: TS66


What is Bzs?
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 09:41 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Pretty excited magnetic field showing here ....

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: TS66


What is Bzs?
 Quoting: Luisport


Corrected myself, magnetic field.
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 09:41 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Pretty excited magnetic field showing here ....

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: TS66


yes !
alexisj9

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03/08/2012 09:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is this showing the storm, not sure what the haarp magnetometer reads, but I'll post it anyway.

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

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03/08/2012 09:45 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This storm seams weaker that everyone thaught... it's possible we are only seing the begining and later it became stronger?
 Quoting: Luisport


Yup---here are yesterdays KP readings...can fluctuate big time..

[link to www.solarham.com]
PolarBear418

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03/08/2012 09:46 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This storm seams weaker that everyone thaught... it's possible we are only seing the begining and later it became stronger?
 Quoting: Luisport


Agreed, not really sure why/what is going on, but it does seem to be much more lax then anticipated.

Not Complaining though :)
 Quoting: PolarBear418


Not sure it's weaker then expected or they wouldn't have shut down the usual satellites. We are just not getting the data we can normally get.
 Quoting: alexisj9


AHhhhh makes sense. Thanks
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

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03/08/2012 09:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Pretty excited magnetic field showing here ....

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: TS66


That looks how I felt yesterday..lol
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 09:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
magnetosphere sim. looks a bit messy at the moment...
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 11850216
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03/08/2012 09:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Pretty excited magnetic field showing here ....

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: TS66


That looks how I felt yesterday..lol
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


Aren't you "relaxing" somewhere with your new quad ???
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 09:54 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Pretty excited magnetic field showing here ....

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: TS66


It's like they shut everything off. There's no way it would be that weak. Looking at the saturation from earlier.. it's like it just shut off.
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 09:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Pretty excited magnetic field showing here ....

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: TS66


It's like they shut everything off. There's no way it would be that weak. Looking at the saturation from earlier.. it's like it just shut off.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12170375


This is a good graph for absorption rates, and looks to be on line

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 10:02 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Anyone know what NiNzrez's take on this is ?
Luisport

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03/08/2012 10:03 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Genru Pingol &#8206;SolarHam.com are expect a more worse than the present one to come?
há 39 minutos.



SolarHam.com The Bz component ( IMF) is still waiting to tip south. When and if it does, this could intensify the storm
[link to www.facebook.com]
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 10:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Genru Pingol &#8206;SolarHam.com are expect a more worse than the present one to come?
há 39 minutos.



SolarHam.com The Bz component ( IMF) is still waiting to tip south. When and if it does, this could intensify the storm
[link to www.facebook.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


This ?
[link to solarham.com]
Luisport

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03/08/2012 10:08 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Genru Pingol &#8206;SolarHam.com are expect a more worse than the present one to come?
há 39 minutos.



SolarHam.com The Bz component ( IMF) is still waiting to tip south. When and if it does, this could intensify the storm
[link to www.facebook.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


This ?
[link to solarham.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7048529


Thank's! It seams to... hf
Luisport

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03/08/2012 10:12 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Genru Pingol &#8206;SolarHam.com are expect a more worse than the present one to come?
há 39 minutos.



SolarHam.com The Bz component ( IMF) is still waiting to tip south. When and if it does, this could intensify the storm
[link to www.facebook.com]
 Quoting: Luisport




SolarHam.com

há cerca de um minuto.



The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) has been pointing mostly to the north and this is keeping the geomagnetic storm at minor levels thus far. Should the Bz begin to point south for long durations, this may help intensify the storm. More updates when needed.

What does the "Bz" mean?

The sun has a magnetic field which the solar wind can carry throughout the solar system. This is called the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF). Earth also has a magnetic field which forms a bubble around our planet. This is called the Magnetosphere. This bubble deflects the solar wind. Earth's magnetic field comes into contact with the sun's magnetic field in a place called the magnetopause. Here is the catch. Earth's magnetic field points north. When the sun's magnetic field points south, also known as southward Bz.. it may cancel Earth's magnetic field at point of contact. When the Bz is south the 2 fields link up. This basically opens up a door that may allow energy from the solar wind to reach Earth's atmosphere. [link to www.facebook.com]
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 10498853
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03/08/2012 10:17 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
my power went out for a few last night
and my net connection just came back
im going to try to look through the posts since last night
but wow, you all have been busy
many pages haha
i seen tom made a blog post about the incoming CME
you rock tom for being on the ball!!
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 10:17 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Genru Pingol &#8206;SolarHam.com are expect a more worse than the present one to come?
há 39 minutos.



SolarHam.com The Bz component ( IMF) is still waiting to tip south. When and if it does, this could intensify the storm
[link to www.facebook.com]
 Quoting: Luisport




SolarHam.com

há cerca de um minuto.



The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) has been pointing mostly to the north and this is keeping the geomagnetic storm at minor levels thus far. Should the Bz begin to point south for long durations, this may help intensify the storm. More updates when needed.

What does the "Bz" mean?

The sun has a magnetic field which the solar wind can carry throughout the solar system. This is called the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF). Earth also has a magnetic field which forms a bubble around our planet. This is called the Magnetosphere. This bubble deflects the solar wind. Earth's magnetic field comes into contact with the sun's magnetic field in a place called the magnetopause. Here is the catch. Earth's magnetic field points north. When the sun's magnetic field points south, also known as southward Bz.. it may cancel Earth's magnetic field at point of contact. When the Bz is south the 2 fields link up. This basically opens up a door that may allow energy from the solar wind to reach Earth's atmosphere. [link to www.facebook.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


[link to solarham.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 7048529
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03/08/2012 10:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
my power went out for a few last night
and my net connection just came back
im going to try to look through the posts since last night
but wow, you all have been busy
many pages haha
i seen tom made a blog post about the incoming CME
you rock tom for being on the ball!!
 Quoting: NiNzrez
tomasgod1

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03/08/2012 10:20 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Genru Pingol &#8206;SolarHam.com are expect a more worse than the present one to come?
há 39 minutos.



SolarHam.com The Bz component ( IMF) is still waiting to tip south. When and if it does, this could intensify the storm
[link to www.facebook.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


This ?
[link to solarham.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7048529


This small CME has had a northward orientation cauusing it to make little connection. It is not going to do much. This is the first of two. This was the small one. The larger one is not set to arrive for another few hours and will be smashed into the rear end of this one. Here are the times these storms were scheduled to arrive today. So far everything is on schedule.

Here is the first one that we are in now.


Event Issue Date: 2012-03-07 16:52:21.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-08 06:25:05.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 6 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.5 Re

Thu, 8 Mar 2012 06:25:05 UTC
Thu, 8 Mar 2012 12:25:05 UTC


Here is the second one that will start later.


Event Issue Date: 2012-03-06 14:18:39.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-08 23:59:04.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 11 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.3 Re

Thu, 8 Mar 2012 23:59:04 UTC
Fri, 9 Mar 2012 10:59:04 UTC
_______

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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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NiNzrez (OP)

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03/08/2012 10:20 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This storm seams weaker that everyone thaught... it's possible we are only seing the begining and later it became stronger?
 Quoting: Luisport


this is what im thinking Luis
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
guest
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03/08/2012 10:21 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So what is going to occur when the solar wind is in our atmosphere?
Luisport

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03/08/2012 10:23 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This storm seams weaker that everyone thaught... it's possible we are only seing the begining and later it became stronger?
 Quoting: Luisport


this is what im thinking Luis
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thank's! hearts
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/08/2012 10:24 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Genru Pingol &#8206;SolarHam.com are expect a more worse than the present one to come?
há 39 minutos.



SolarHam.com The Bz component ( IMF) is still waiting to tip south. When and if it does, this could intensify the storm
[link to www.facebook.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


This ?
[link to solarham.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7048529


This small CME has had a northward orientation cauusing it to make little connection. It is not going to do much. This is the first of two. This was the small one. The larger one is not set to arrive for another few hours and will be smashed into the rear end of this one. Here are the times these storms were scheduled to arrive today. So far everything is on schedule.

Here is the first one that we are in now.


Event Issue Date: 2012-03-07 16:52:21.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-08 06:25:05.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 6 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.5 Re

Thu, 8 Mar 2012 06:25:05 UTC
Thu, 8 Mar 2012 12:25:05 UTC


Here is the second one that will start later.


Event Issue Date: 2012-03-06 14:18:39.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-08 23:59:04.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 11 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.3 Re

Thu, 8 Mar 2012 23:59:04 UTC
Fri, 9 Mar 2012 10:59:04 UTC
 Quoting: tomasgod1


as i said
ON THE BALL!
thanks for posting that Tom
i feel lost for the moment on everything
im rushing to catch up
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Nacht im Walde

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03/08/2012 10:24 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wanted to do this last night, but the mods took too long to approve the images and I was waaay to tired to wait

i thought it was
but had to go look it up...

this sunspot you posted was the sunspot that produced the record breaking X28 flare on Nov 4, 2003
the image you posted is from when the sunspot was directly earth facing, just a few days before it rotated to the western limb
that is where it let out an amazing X flare

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
"A day later, word came from the SEC that their best estimate was X28, with a peak around 19:50 UT. Although the exact number will likely be debated for some time, it is now official: We have a new #1 X-ray flare for the record books."

can someone that has a bit of time and know how, please do a close up of the 2003 spot, 1429 and the carrington drawing
and make them so that the image of the actual sunspot on each is around the same size??
This way, we can compair 1429, directly to the carrington drawing, as well as the 2003 #1 X flare of all time

im sure im not the only one that is curious how closley they look alike
maybe this can give us a better insight as to what 1429 still may have in store for us

according to NOAA, over the remainder of this week we still have a 80% chance for M flares, and 30% chance for X flares

lets not let our guards down just yet when it comes to the Xray flux/solar flares
The main event 1429 has for us just may not have happened yat
 Quoting: NiNzrez



thx Nin =)

I just stumbled upon a really interesting site with detailed information about the event:
[link to passingstrangeness.wordpress.com]

even old graphs that were recorded back then!
[link to www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk]

most amazing is that an actual image of the sunspot exists! Not quite sure why it looks so different from the drawing though (might have been a couple of days before/after)
[link to www.scientificamerican.com]

When I overlayed it with 1429, I was shocked how wimpy it looks (I turned it, because the original capture is inverted)

carrington1429

also for comparison the biggest Sunspots SOHO observed in 2001/2003

9393486

However, note that the Sunspot 9393 of 2001 was actually almost the same size as the Carrington spot (which had a huge Umbra) I have the feeling that the odds of something similar like this happening only every 500 years is a bit of a conservative estimate.
I`m really quite surprised by this, looks like we`re only just dodging the bullets... it seems that the decisive factor on whether or not we will get another Carrington event is the question if a large flare/CME is actually earth-facing and therefore geoeffective. Sunspots of similar size seem to appear fairly frequently (perhaps once or twice every cycle?). If the 28+x-flare of 2003 had been earth facing that might have resultet in a similar outcome...

carrington9393a
We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are. - Anais Nin
shadasonic

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03/08/2012 10:25 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Pretty excited magnetic field showing here ....

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: TS66


It's like they shut everything off. There's no way it would be that weak. Looking at the saturation from earlier.. it's like it just shut off.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12170375


It is shut down,we're getting very little info.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 10:25 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Genru Pingol &#8206;SolarHam.com are expect a more worse than the present one to come?
há 39 minutos.



SolarHam.com The Bz component ( IMF) is still waiting to tip south. When and if it does, this could intensify the storm
[link to www.facebook.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


This ?
[link to solarham.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7048529


This small CME has had a northward orientation cauusing it to make little connection. It is not going to do much. This is the first of two. This was the small one. The larger one is not set to arrive for another few hours and will be smashed into the rear end of this one. Here are the times these storms were scheduled to arrive today. So far everything is on schedule.

Here is the first one that we are in now.


Event Issue Date: 2012-03-07 16:52:21.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-08 06:25:05.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 6 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.5 Re

Thu, 8 Mar 2012 06:25:05 UTC
Thu, 8 Mar 2012 12:25:05 UTC


Here is the second one that will start later.


Event Issue Date: 2012-03-06 14:18:39.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-08 23:59:04.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 11 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.3 Re

Thu, 8 Mar 2012 23:59:04 UTC
Fri, 9 Mar 2012 10:59:04 UTC
 Quoting: tomasgod1


as i said
ON THE BALL!
thanks for posting that Tom
i feel lost for the moment on everything
im rushing to catch up
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Good morning NiN

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