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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
tomasgod1

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03/08/2012 04:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
New active Region incoming--03/08/2012


[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


It said it arrived at the spacecraft at 10:45 UTC, I am in EST which is 5 hours behind, so that was 3:45 (30 minutes ago)... so how far do you assume it takes to get from the spacecraft to the planet?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11588113



and thx mamahugs

we expect the larger one behind it...and this will be arrive in the next couple hours
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Here it comes. The electron flux is falling like a brick.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
_______

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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
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tomasgod1

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03/08/2012 04:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.com]
droping a good thing ! ?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 4141853


X is the N S BznT componet of the magnetometer. The more the deviation away from normal(the center) the larger the storm.
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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 04:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.com]
droping a good thing ! ?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 4141853


X is the N S BznT componet of the magnetometer. The more the deviation away from normal(the center) the larger the storm.
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Thanks !
tomasgod1

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03/08/2012 04:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The bottom just fell completely out of the electron flux since I posted..WOW
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
_______

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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 04:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The bottom just fell completely out of the electron flux since I posted..WOW
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


What does this mean?
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 04:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The bottom just fell completely out of the electron flux since I posted..WOW
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


hiding
tomasgod1

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03/08/2012 04:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It has been 4 1/2 hours since we have got an update from SOHO..:(
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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
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OVRANALYZE

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03/08/2012 04:45 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The bottom just fell completely out of the electron flux since I posted..WOW
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


yep i was also just noticing that.
tomasgod1

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03/08/2012 04:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The bottom just fell completely out of the electron flux since I posted..WOW
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


yep i was also just noticing that.
 Quoting: OVRANALYZE


Great to see you OA
_______

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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
PolarBear418

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03/08/2012 04:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
New active Region incoming--03/08/2012


[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


It said it arrived at the spacecraft at 10:45 UTC, I am in EST which is 5 hours behind, so that was 3:45 (30 minutes ago)... so how far do you assume it takes to get from the spacecraft to the planet?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11588113


that math is so bad I dont know where to start
OVRANALYZE

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03/08/2012 04:52 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The bottom just fell completely out of the electron flux since I posted..WOW
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


yep i was also just noticing that.
 Quoting: OVRANALYZE


Great to see you OA
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Hey! good to see u. the data is all weird. seems odd that 1429 has gone so quiet. not good.
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 05:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
soho just updated guys.. oe..

2012 068:21:45:41 -1.96 73.66 1.37 636.50


-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 05:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The belgium website: [link to sidc.oma.be]

Saying "severe geomagnetic storm expected" and "proton event in progress"



Severe geomagnetic storm as per NooA:
Power systems: possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid.

Spacecraft operations: may experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems: induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.)**.
Nacht im Walde

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03/08/2012 05:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
was hoping to see some auroras tonight... but the orange full moon and Venus almost made up for it
We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are. - Anais Nin
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 05:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Speaking with Patt Morrison about the solar storms on @KPCC

Guest:

Alex Young, solar astrophysicist, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

[link to www.scpr.org]

:putinEARS:
tomasgod1

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03/08/2012 05:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The bottom just fell completely out of the electron flux since I posted..WOW
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


What does this mean?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12192488


It indicates the onset of a significant storm. As you can see it has been relatively steady all day. You can see how it tumbled at the start of our last big storm. That one did not have the wind up at 700k/s they were very low at the time.
_______

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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 05:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is there a way to predict the severity of the storm from this? Are you expecting significant power outages? Or most likely less severe than that?
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 05:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Genru Pingol ‎SolarHam.com are expect a more worse than the present one to come?
há 39 minutos.



SolarHam.com The Bz component ( IMF) is still waiting to tip south. When and if it does, this could intensify the storm
[link to www.facebook.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


This ?
[link to solarham.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7048529


This small CME has had a northward orientation cauusing it to make little connection. It is not going to do much. This is the first of two. This was the small one. The larger one is not set to arrive for another few hours and will be smashed into the rear end of this one. Here are the times these storms were scheduled to arrive today. So far everything is on schedule.

Here is the first one that we are in now.


Event Issue Date: 2012-03-07 16:52:21.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-08 06:25:05.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 6 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.5 Re

Thu, 8 Mar 2012 06:25:05 UTC
Thu, 8 Mar 2012 12:25:05 UTC


Here is the second one that will start later.


Event Issue Date: 2012-03-06 14:18:39.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-08 23:59:04.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 11 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.3 Re

Thu, 8 Mar 2012 23:59:04 UTC
Fri, 9 Mar 2012 10:59:04 UTC
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Event Issue Date: 2012-03-07 16:52:21.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-08 06:25:05.0 GMT

Event Issue Date: 2012-03-06 14:18:39.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-08 23:59:04.0 GMT


this seems strange. so the event issued on 060312 at 14:18 is due to arrive at 23:59 on 080312 and the event issued on 070312 at 16:52 is due to arrive at 06:25 on 080312, before the one issued earlier. is it just the way they release the info?
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 05:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Do the doomers here really like the idea of the power grid getting thrown off line for the next possibly 10 years ??? I mean yeah it might sound like a good idea (??) as a novelty event, but do you have any idea what it will do to humanity in general ??
Gabriel

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03/08/2012 05:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Do the doomers here really like the idea of the power grid getting thrown off line for the next possibly 10 years ??? I mean yeah it might sound like a good idea (??) as a novelty event, but do you have any idea what it will do to humanity in general ??
 Quoting: TS66


won't be pretty, but it is inevitable.
shenue

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03/08/2012 05:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Do the doomers here really like the idea of the power grid getting thrown off line for the next possibly 10 years ??? I mean yeah it might sound like a good idea (??) as a novelty event, but do you have any idea what it will do to humanity in general ??
 Quoting: TS66


won't be pretty, but it is inevitable.
 Quoting: Gabriel


I sure as heck don't want that to happen. Gawd. It would be a disaster. Riots, food shortages after only a few days. No heat... etc etc etc. Talk about doom!
Sometimes 'the having' is not as sweet as 'the wanting'. So be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 05:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Do the doomers here really like the idea of the power grid getting thrown off line for the next possibly 10 years ??? I mean yeah it might sound like a good idea (??) as a novelty event, but do you have any idea what it will do to humanity in general ??
 Quoting: TS66


won't be pretty, but it is inevitable.
 Quoting: Gabriel


And although I agree with the inevitability, this insessent call for doom today on this thread is insane. They are angry that these CMEs didn't take out the grid and or fry them. It just doesn't make sense IMHO.
Luisport

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03/08/2012 05:33 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It's comimg again isn't it? [link to www.n3kl.org]
shadasonic
viracocha says live well

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03/08/2012 05:34 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Do the doomers here really like the idea of the power grid getting thrown off line for the next possibly 10 years ??? I mean yeah it might sound like a good idea (??) as a novelty event, but do you have any idea what it will do to humanity in general ??
 Quoting: TS66


won't be pretty, but it is inevitable.
 Quoting: Gabriel


I sure as heck don't want that to happen. Gawd. It would be a disaster. Riots, food shortages after only a few days. No heat... etc etc etc. Talk about doom!
 Quoting: shenue


90% of the people would flip out in the first week
It is understanding that transforms us, not merely the desire for change, and until a man obtains a thorough understanding of the nature of evil and so becomes equipped to respond wisely to its challenges, he will necessarily be detrimentally affected by it.
shadasonic
viracocha says live well

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03/08/2012 05:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I take it the magnetosphere simulation is down like in january?
It is understanding that transforms us, not merely the desire for change, and until a man obtains a thorough understanding of the nature of evil and so becomes equipped to respond wisely to its challenges, he will necessarily be detrimentally affected by it.
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 05:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2012


Solar Activity Forecast:
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low to moderate levels with a chance for further X-class activity
from Region 1429 for the next three days (09 - 11 March).

Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions
with major storm periods observed at high latitudes during 08/1200 -
1800Z. At 08/1045Z, a 40 nT shock was observed at the ACE
spacecraft from the arrival of the coronal mass ejection (CME)
associated with the X5 flare that occurred early on 07 March
. A
sudden impulse was observed shortly after at the Boulder
magnetometer at 08/1105Z (59 nT). Minor storm periods were observed
as a result of the CME arrival. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event that began at 07/0510Z increased to a maximum of 6530 pfu at
08/1115Z as a result of the CME shock.
The greater than 100 MeV
proton event that began at 07/0405Z, and reached a maximum value of
69.3 pfu at 07/1525Z, has slowly declined.


Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor to major
storm periods possible on day 1 (09 March) as the Earth continues to
be under the influence of the CME from 07 March.
Quiet to unsettled
conditions with isolated active periods possible are expected for
days 2 - 3 (10 - 11 March).


III. Event Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 40/40/40
Proton 99/99/70
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
shadasonic
viracocha says live well

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03/08/2012 05:40 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I know this sounds crazy but it seems like we are getting help with this storm from some unknown source.
It is understanding that transforms us, not merely the desire for change, and until a man obtains a thorough understanding of the nature of evil and so becomes equipped to respond wisely to its challenges, he will necessarily be detrimentally affected by it.
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 05:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Do the doomers here really like the idea of the power grid getting thrown off line for the next possibly 10 years ??? I mean yeah it might sound like a good idea (??) as a novelty event, but do you have any idea what it will do to humanity in general ??
 Quoting: TS66


won't be pretty, but it is inevitable.
 Quoting: Gabriel


And although I agree with the inevitability, this insessent call for doom today on this thread is insane. They are angry that these CMEs didn't take out the grid and or fry them. It just doesn't make sense IMHO.
 Quoting: TS66


It hasn't hit yet, or from what I can discern with my lack of knowledge on this matter.
Luisport

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03/08/2012 05:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The bigest bump is still to come no?
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 05:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I know this sounds crazy but it seems like we are getting help with this storm from some unknown source.
 Quoting: shadasonic


1dunno1

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