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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
EndOfAll

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03/08/2012 09:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Sats on last

Cur 09/0208 C1.9 Ratio 0.056
Beg 09/0155 B9.1
Max 09/0200 C4.7 Int 2.0e-03 J m -2
End 09/0206 C2.6
EndOfAll
Hugh M Eye

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03/08/2012 09:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
X Ray going Vertical
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9178101


Yep, C4.7-she's getting primed to give us another big blast soon. The C's are coming closer together.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
old guard

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03/08/2012 09:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
We're still at a k-4
BZ at -1.3
wind speed 288.0
shenue

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03/08/2012 09:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good Night All and big big thanks to those who have been keeping us all informed. Right now I am so confused. lol I don't know if we are still in the middle of the CME effects or if the worst is over or if the worst is yet to come. I will just hope nothing fries during the night and I am able to join you all here in the morning. :-)
Watch your thoughts; they become words. Watch your words; they become actions. Watch your actions; they become habits. Watch your habits; they become your character. Watch your character; it becomes your destiny.
Rain-Man

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03/08/2012 09:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
New sunspot coming in our view, when come probably will be straight Earth direction ..

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by Rain-Man on 03/08/2012 09:27 PM
Hugh M Eye

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03/08/2012 09:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Cuz Bz on the decline. But theres no plasma data showing..

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: EndOfAll


ACE solar wind data is unavailable or degraded. However, if Mag-field measurements are correct then we're seeing the passage of the negative end of the CME that Tom referred to. This is often when we see a sparking-up of aurora. Here's recent screenshot:

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

24-hr. Magnetopause simulation shows lots of ripples. However the stand-off distance is further away from Earth than the geo-storm on Tues/Wed. Of course I'm not sure if this simulator is also based on faulty ACE data or something else. Maybe Tom knows...

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

It does look like we're getting some worsening of the magnetic storm now:

GOES Electron flux plummeting again:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer falling also:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

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03/08/2012 09:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


So is NASA saying the stronger CME already hit this morning? I am so confused. Do we still have a second one coming from the stronger X Flare or did it come this morning?
 Quoting: disclosure_2011


He is so full of crap. For one thing they have not been getting the wind speed from the ACE satellite as it is down. If they have been then they intentionally falsified information having us believe that ACE shut its self down when the proton density got to high from the SEP event and we have been had. The wind data has been comming in from SOHO. Second of all, it is not impossible to predict the orientation of the magnetic field of an ICME. This can be figured by the hemisphere the CME comes from along with the configuration of the sunspot region. The reason they got this one backward is because they forgot that this CME came from a sunspot in the northern hemisphere with a reversed polarity. So they got it backwards. As you guys know I usually call the polarity of the CME before it arrives and have only ever missed one, that came frome the southern hemisphere very near the equator, I had expected it to arrive + to -. I do not know why these guys are so terrified of saying they got it wrong. Well, actually I do. They are wrong all the time. The plain fact is that this storm has had incredible speed but no connectivity or density. You have to have all three of those ingredients together at the same time to have a big geomagnetic storm. Even though this storm was oriented + to -, with wind speeds going up over 700k/s this could have produced a strong geomagnetic storm if there had been any proton density to the thing, but there was not. There is still a posibility that things could intensify but it is looking like the brunt of this is behind us now. If the IMF flips back to the - long eneough as the second weaker side that has the negative polarity lasts long eneough more significant storming could occur.
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Great mind there Tom
 Quoting: shadasonic


I agree...great info Tom.....sure glad you are around to help with all this....thanks to all who chimmed in....always takes a team especially when they start shutting stuff down during strong storms...
Hugh M Eye

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03/08/2012 09:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
New sunspot coming in our view, when come probably will be straight Earth direction ..

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Rain-Man


Hi, I was waiting a bit to see if there was more to it than one spot.
:anewregion:

Here's a nice close-up of AR1429. It still harnesses a lot of power.
:comp1429:
NiNzrez  (OP)

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03/08/2012 09:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


So is NASA saying the stronger CME already hit this morning? I am so confused. Do we still have a second one coming from the stronger X Flare or did it come this morning?
 Quoting: disclosure_2011


He is so full of crap. For one thing they have not been getting the wind speed from the ACE satellite as it is down. If they have been then they intentionally falsified information having us believe that ACE shut its self down when the proton density got to high from the SEP event and we have been had. The wind data has been comming in from SOHO. Second of all, it is not impossible to predict the orientation of the magnetic field of an ICME. This can be figured by the hemisphere the CME comes from along with the configuration of the sunspot region. The reason they got this one backward is because they forgot that this CME came from a sunspot in the northern hemisphere with a reversed polarity. So they got it backwards. As you guys know I usually call the polarity of the CME before it arrives and have only ever missed one, that came frome the southern hemisphere very near the equator, I had expected it to arrive + to -. I do not know why these guys are so terrified of saying they got it wrong. Well, actually I do. They are wrong all the time. The plain fact is that this storm has had incredible speed but no connectivity or density. You have to have all three of those ingredients together at the same time to have a big geomagnetic storm. Even though this storm was oriented + to -, with wind speeds going up over 700k/s this could have produced a strong geomagnetic storm if there had been any proton density to the thing, but there was not. There is still a posibility that things could intensify but it is looking like the brunt of this is behind us now. If the IMF flips back to the - long eneough as the second weaker side that has the negative polarity lasts long eneough more significant storming could occur.
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Great mind there Tom
 Quoting: shadasonic


well said Tom
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 09:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Bz's been Southward for almost an hour now. -12.8 right now, maybe we'll have a light show tonight after all.
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 09:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good to see you Nin. Can you pls let us know if the CME has hit?
NiNzrez  (OP)

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03/08/2012 09:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
the Bz is now tilting south
between -7 and -13
with the By at around +11
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Rain-Man

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03/08/2012 09:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hugh better post other image so we have clear view of new sunspot, I dont know how to upload ..

So later we can see how sunspot develop, looks to my we will have above new sunspot active area or more little new sunspots ..

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Good to see you Nin. Can you pls let us know if the CME has hit?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12207075


Lo0ks like Nin did not see your post ..

Yes CME hit us today at 12:00 UTC, 36 hrs after eruption ..

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

Last Edited by Rain-Man on 03/08/2012 10:08 PM
Hugh M Eye

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03/08/2012 09:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Aurora seen in daylight at Tromso, Norway!

[link to polaris.nipr.ac.jp]

Some seen behind clouds at Abisko, Sweden too.

[link to www.auroraskystation.com]
Doomalicious

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03/08/2012 09:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
What makes the Electron Flux plummet off the charts and stay there??

[link to n3kl.org]
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EndOfAll

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03/08/2012 09:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Looks like protons falling steady. Down to an S2. Still on the edge.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
EndOfAll
NiNzrez  (OP)

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good to see you Nin. Can you pls let us know if the CME has hit?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12207075


it is so hard to tell without being able to see the solar wind speeds
so much is either down or being censored
looking at the current Bz and the AE/AU
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

as well as the electron flux
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

i would take a stab in the dark and say we may be seeing the 2nd CME coming in, or about to come in

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/08/2012 10:12 PM
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 10:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARPC0
Serial Number: 56
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 08 2330 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 55
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0300 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 09 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 10:15 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Geomagnetic storm kp5 is back on... could get fired up soon. I hope so, witnessed them back in october here in michigan after 2 1/2 years of constant solar following. What an amazing display it was.
Hugh M Eye

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03/08/2012 10:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
The Kp Index is back to 5=Storm level.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

HAARP Fluxgate Magnetometer- check out the black line, it's going off the scale!

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 10:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
The Kp Index is back to 5=Storm level.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

HAARP Fluxgate Magnetometer- check out the black line, it's going off the scale!

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


bump
El Quisqueyano

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03/08/2012 10:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
The Kp Index is back to 5=Storm level.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

HAARP Fluxgate Magnetometer- check out the black line, it's going off the scale!

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Click 2000 nT and update.
tmorais

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03/08/2012 10:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Density is starting to grow up.. [link to umtof.umd.edu]

And take a look at Kiruna Magnetogram: [link to solarham.com]

Last Edited by God of X on 03/08/2012 10:19 PM
NiNzrez  (OP)

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03/08/2012 10:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hugh better post other image so we have clear view of new sunspot, I dont know how to upload ..

So later we can see how sunspot develop, looks to my we will have above new sunspot active area or more little new sunspots ..

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Good to see you Nin. Can you pls let us know if the CME has hit?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12207075


Lo0ks like Nin did not see your post ..

Yes CME hit us today at 12:00 UTC, 36 hrs after eruption ..

[link to umtof.umd.edu]
 Quoting: Rain-Man


the 1st CME hit at 11:05 UTC March 8th
the 2nd CME were still watching for
zacksavage

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03/08/2012 10:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
the 1st CME hit at 11:05 UTC March 8th
the 2nd CME were still watching for
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Sure glad yer around to sort this stuff our:)







Z
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 10:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good to see you Nin. Can you pls let us know if the CME has hit?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12207075


it is so hard to tell without being able to see the solar wind speeds
so much is either down or being censored
looking at the current Bz and the AE/AU
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

as well as the electron flux
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

i would take a stab in the dark and say we may be seeing the 2nd CME coming in, or about to come in
 Quoting: NiNzrez


The second CME coming from the X1 or X5?
El Quisqueyano

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03/08/2012 10:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Haiti, I am thinking Haiti. Why am I thinking Haiti. Be wary Haitians. Does anyone know if they had any aftershocks?
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 10:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
spaceweather.com is now saying southward -17bz
dettro99

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03/08/2012 10:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
hi X ray Flux going up

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2012 10:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
M Class on NOAA 6 hr X Ray Flux





GLP