Godlike Productions - Conspiracy Forum
Users Online Now: 1,509 (Who's On?)Visitors Today: 434,331
Pageviews Today: 562,729Threads Today: 106Posts Today: 1,684
04:11 AM


Rate this Thread

Absolute BS Crap Reasonable Nice Amazing
 

SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12226168
United States
03/10/2012 04:39 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Getting close to that "super highway" loacation the profeessor talks about below chart..

It just keeps getting better doesn`t it..and we aren`t done with this sunspot yet..60 degrees west is coming up in a couple days...The Berkeley professor says that is the most dangerous spot for a flare because we are magnetically connected with the sun at that location...it`s like a superhighway for a CME..I will find my link

:sun123:

[link to science.nasa.gov]

"We have an important clue," says Lin. When the explosion occurred, sunspot 720 was located at a special place on the sun: 60o west longitude. This means "the sunspot was magnetically connected to Earth."

see captionHe explains: The sun's magnetic field spirals out into the solar system like water from a lawn sprinkler. (Why? The sun spins like a lawn sprinkler does.) The magnetic field emerging from solar longitude 60o W bends around and intersects Earth. Protons are guided by magnetic force fields so, on January 20th, there was a superhighway for protons leading all the way from sunspot 720 to our planet.

 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


So 1429 and 1430 are approaching the 60* mark yes?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 5233107
United States
03/10/2012 04:43 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


I can't know every tool in use but it seems like the only thing we really have that is accurate is the fact that we can tell

1) whether or not they actually happened
2) the speed of them (give or take 5-8 hour margin of errors)
3) the general direction of them

I don't trust that forecast track to predict that it's density will break up to such a level by the time it reaches us, the only thing I look at the forecast tracks for are if they actually hit the globe, after that all you can do is wait until they do hit to see the effects.
 Quoting: Starwind


I personally like it, it at least let's me know what general direction it's going in, in the first place. But, when it's that big, and just seems to part ways just before hitting Earth ??? I'm a little more skeptical in it's authenticity.
 Quoting: TS66


I was thinking the same.. funny how the strongest part suddenly splits right before hitting earth to make the strong part hit on the sides of us but not direct..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5233107


Do you guys think these simulations are different by accident?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11588113


Since theres such a big difference in them I would think it was intentional.. I mean, one shows the white and red hitting us and the other shows it separate right before putting us in the clear of it.. Seems really weird.. Maybe nasa just hasnt updated to a "fixed" model like NOAA has? Just seems not right.. guess we will find out soon enough thoughhiding
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 12291895
United States
03/10/2012 05:51 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What? No posts for an hour! I just went out to re-stock the bunker (running low on aspirin). SOHO still not updating! I guess everyone is getting a nap to be ready for the show or else they're all preparing to bug out. For anyone who missed the M8, here's the movie from Big Bear one more time.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

USAF Solar Doom Bunker:

[link to www.afweather.af.mil]

I noticed massive chem-trail operation this afternoon....still ongoing. Won't metallicizing the atmosphere make it MORE conductive?

hiding
Isis7
Voice Chat Moderator

User ID: 9074519
United States
03/10/2012 06:05 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What? No posts for an hour! I just went out to re-stock the bunker (running low on aspirin). SOHO still not updating! I guess everyone is getting a nap to be ready for the show or else they're all preparing to bug out. For anyone who missed the M8, here's the movie from Big Bear one more time.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

USAF Solar Doom Bunker:

[link to www.afweather.af.mil]

I noticed massive chem-trail operation this afternoon....still ongoing. Won't metallicizing the atmosphere make it MORE conductive?

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thanks Hugh, I was thinking the same thing.


Artis has a podcast with Canadian scientist available:

[link to solarimg.org]

USGS Seismic links are down too, and unless I'm restricted from viewing, some of the links provided in this thread are down too.

Take care.

hugs

Last Edited by Isis7 on 03/10/2012 08:26 PM
El Quisqueyano

User ID: 12094494
United States
03/10/2012 06:21 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What? No posts for an hour! I just went out to re-stock the bunker (running low on aspirin). SOHO still not updating! I guess everyone is getting a nap to be ready for the show or else they're all preparing to bug out. For anyone who missed the M8, here's the movie from Big Bear one more time.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

USAF Solar Doom Bunker:

[link to www.afweather.af.mil]

I noticed massive chem-trail operation this afternoon....still ongoing. Won't metallicizing the atmosphere make it MORE conductive?

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


How the heck did you get that pic? So they monitor everything 24 hours 7 days a week huh? WOW. We should be doing the same right?
Luisport

User ID: 12295108
Portugal
03/10/2012 06:23 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Below is the new Solar Report for today.

-Expect Strong Geomagnetic Storming with a chance for isolated Severe Storming at high latitudes due to the expected incoming CME. This should take place early to midday tomorrow March 11.

-The bright CME from today's M8.4 Solar Flare is also directed towards Earth and should impact us by March 12. Strong Geomagnetic Storming will again be possible.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1430 (N21W42) produced
a C8 flare at 10/1552Z and Region 1429 (N18W26) produced a long
duration M8 flare at 10/1744Z with an associated Tenflare (459 sfu)
and a Type IV radio sweep. Both flares had associated CMEs. The
first CME appeared in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 10/1624Z with
the majority of the ejecta off the NW limb. The second CME,
associated with the M8 flare, first appeared in C2 imagery at
10/1800Z. Further analysis will be done as imagery becomes
available, however initial analysis indicated the event produced a
full-halo CME with an estimated plane-of-sky speed between 1200 -
1400 km/s. Region 1429 remained a large Ekc spot class with a
Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic class. A new region appeared on the ENE
limb near Region 1432 (N16E52). Close proximity to the limb made a
detailed analysis of this new region difficult.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels for the forecast period (11 - 13 March).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels with periods
of major storming at higher latitudes between 10/0600 - 1200Z.
Activity was due to the continued effects of the 07 March CME.
Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft has gradually decreased from
approximately 580 km/s to near 450 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV
and greater than 100 Mev proton events are on going. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled early on day 1 (11 March) until
the arrival of the 09 March CME followed by todays CME associated
with the M8 flare. Models show an arrival of the first CME early to
midday on 11 March which is expected to cause minor to major storm
conditions with isolated severe storm periods likely. Initial
estimates on the second CME indicate an arrival late on day 1.
Activity is expected to continue into day 2 (12 March) with minor to
major storm conditions with isolated severe storm periods possible.
Conditions are expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels by
day 3 (13 March).

III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 40/40/40
Proton 99/99/60
PCAF red

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Mar 149
Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 155/155/155
90 Day Mean 10 Mar 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 057/094
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 047/085-024/040-007/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor storm 35/30/05
Major-severe storm 35/25/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/25
Minor storm 15/25/15
Major-severe storm 75/55/10 [link to www.facebook.com]
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 12291895
United States
03/10/2012 06:39 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What? No posts for an hour! I just went out to re-stock the bunker (running low on aspirin). SOHO still not updating! I guess everyone is getting a nap to be ready for the show or else they're all preparing to bug out. For anyone who missed the M8, here's the movie from Big Bear one more time.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

USAF Solar Doom Bunker:

[link to www.afweather.af.mil]

I noticed massive chem-trail operation this afternoon....still ongoing. Won't metallicizing the atmosphere make it MORE conductive?

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


How the heck did you get that pic? So they monitor everything 24 hours 7 days a week huh? WOW. We should be doing the same right?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano

It's amazing the things ya can find on the inter-webs. The AF has special weather operations and with all of that expensive hardware (X37b, spy satellites, and God-knows-what else) up in orbit; they damn better be prepared for space weather.

Oh, WE ARE doing the same (albeit on a lower budget, haha).

drevil
El Quisqueyano

User ID: 12094494
United States
03/10/2012 06:53 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What? No posts for an hour! I just went out to re-stock the bunker (running low on aspirin). SOHO still not updating! I guess everyone is getting a nap to be ready for the show or else they're all preparing to bug out. For anyone who missed the M8, here's the movie from Big Bear one more time.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

USAF Solar Doom Bunker:

[link to www.afweather.af.mil]

I noticed massive chem-trail operation this afternoon....still ongoing. Won't metallicizing the atmosphere make it MORE conductive?

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


How the heck did you get that pic? So they monitor everything 24 hours 7 days a week huh? WOW. We should be doing the same right?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano

It's amazing the things ya can find on the inter-webs. The AF has special weather operations and with all of that expensive hardware (X37b, spy satellites, and God-knows-what else) up in orbit; they damn better be prepared for space weather.

Oh, WE ARE doing the same (albeit on a lower budget, haha).

drevil
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I can imagine. I bet they can detect an ants fart vibration from deep within it's ant hole from way out there in space!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12226168
United States
03/10/2012 06:59 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Now NICT won't come up .....

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
shenue

User ID: 5263313
United States
03/10/2012 07:05 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Now NICT won't come up .....

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: TS66


Came up for me a few minutes ago but was about an hour behind. I just refreshed it and...nothing now.
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12226168
United States
03/10/2012 07:06 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Now NICT won't come up .....

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: TS66


Came up for me a few minutes ago but was about an hour behind. I just refreshed it and...nothing now.
 Quoting: shenue


redface

Well at least I know it's not just me ...... thanks shenue
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 12291895
United States
03/10/2012 07:16 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Now NICT won't come up .....

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: TS66


Came up for me a few minutes ago but was about an hour behind. I just refreshed it and...nothing now.
 Quoting: shenue


redface

Well at least I know it's not just me ...... thanks shenue
 Quoting: TS66


I hate when this happens...this is how conspiracy theories get started, LOL. SOHO is beginning to update....1 pic of nothing much....wait to see if they find the missing 5 hours. Folks have been complaining about bad internet troubles for at least a week now. I'm not sure what's up. Maybe they switch to the privatized Internet 2 while they pull the rug out from us. It looks like ACE is still working, but I'm expecting that to go bye-bye at some point. I hope I'm wrong.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
dabigone
ANHEDONIC

User ID: 8417061
United States
03/10/2012 07:42 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Wow...here we go again uh? Damn....double or triple whammy coming? This shit is getting serious
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


If you wouldn't mind, could you sum up, in layman's terms, what the recent developments are?
 Quoting: ANHEDONIC


Today there is another Earth directed CME
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks, so we can get varying size CME's independent of solar flares and solar flare strength? Is the popular wisdom that our magnetic shields are current weakened from the previous CME's we received? Do you subscribe to the theory that we could see significant seismic activity from CME influence on the earth?

"You will not be punished for your anger, you will be punished by your anger"
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 12291895
United States
03/10/2012 07:43 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Wow, look at this! I don't think this has been posted yet. The SDO close-up movie of the C8 LDE w/"eruptive trans-equatorial wave" shows a vivid interaction between 1430 and 1429. at the end you can see 1430 blow its wad with a nice CME.
[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

That event shortly led to the response from 1429, being grumpy upon awakening from a little nap.

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
spock
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

User ID: 1031150
United States
03/10/2012 08:20 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This CME looks a lot more dense than the one from the X flare...course I'm just looking from my phone and can't view many movies...what ya think Hugh???
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 6592383
United States
03/10/2012 08:33 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A little pop from 1429 at ~22:30 maybe.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] AIA1600 yellow/green

--
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 12291895
United States
03/10/2012 09:02 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This CME looks a lot more dense than the one from the X flare...course I'm just looking from my phone and can't view many movies...what ya think Hugh???
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


Howdy, Look'n beer2 Do you mean the new one or the one on our doorstep? Personally. I think both are worse than the X-flare cme which just passed. If you get a chance, check out the Jupiter-Venus conjunction after sunset...it's awesome! Even better tomorrow night. And Mars is at a very bright opposition now overhead.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12302476
India
03/10/2012 09:19 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hugh - Any idea on wether we had similar LDE flares which are earth directed in solar cycle 23

2) We have a hole in the magnetosphere. So does this X-ray flux pass thru this hole and reach atmosphere and is harmful

3)Saw a lot of MSM news on X5 CME. But looks like they are quite now. If the CME from M flare bigger or smaller then X flare?
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

User ID: 1031150
United States
03/10/2012 09:29 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This CME looks a lot more dense than the one from the X flare...course I'm just looking from my phone and can't view many movies...what ya think Hugh???
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


Howdy, Look'n beer2 Do you mean the new one or the one on our doorstep? Personally. I think both are worse than the X-flare cme which just passed. If you get a chance, check out the Jupiter-Venus conjunction after sunset...it's awesome! Even better tomorrow night. And Mars is at a very bright opposition now overhead.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Yup i was talking about this last one...guess we will see what the magnetosphere is made of...been watching the jupiter venus connection...kewl stuff...saturn will be joining the night skies next month..can see the rings very clear in this bad boy..scope1
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 12291895
United States
03/10/2012 09:31 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Confusion all around....
From SIDC today-

Tomorrow evening (or in the morning ofMarch 12) we expect a strong (K = 7 or higher) geomagnetic storm due to the arrival of the magnetic cloud corresponding to the full halo CME onMarch 9. The proton flux at energies more than 10 MeV is currently above10 pfu level as the proton event is still going on. We expect it to last for at least another 12 hours.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

NASA also has revised the expected arrival time of incoming CME from the M6 flare.

Event Issue Date: 2012-03-09 22:20:36.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-11 08:33:12.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 11 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.3 Re
Sun, 11 Mar 2012 08:33:12 GMT

This means 4:30 AM EDST time (yes, Daylight Savings Time starts at 2 AM in most states). I hope IWTB will be here to monitor the situation (I need my beauty rest,lol).

Here's the NASA Cygnet Model for arrival of the next CME from today's C8/M8 tandem-flare(TM).

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 12291895
United States
03/10/2012 09:37 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This CME looks a lot more dense than the one from the X flare...course I'm just looking from my phone and can't view many movies...what ya think Hugh???
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


Howdy, Look'n beer2 Do you mean the new one or the one on our doorstep? Personally. I think both are worse than the X-flare cme which just passed. If you get a chance, check out the Jupiter-Venus conjunction after sunset...it's awesome! Even better tomorrow night. And Mars is at a very bright opposition now overhead.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Yup i was talking about this last one...guess we will see what the magnetosphere is made of...been watching the jupiter venus connection...kewl stuff...saturn will be joining the night skies next month..can see the rings very clear in this bad boy..scope1
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


Sweet, nice Dobs! I don't have scope anymore, that's why I observe the Sun-it's one star I can see close-up and personal, haha. Clear skies to ya , Bro!
earthrise1
Starwind

User ID: 12283057
United States
03/10/2012 09:48 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Confusion all around....
From SIDC today-

Tomorrow evening (or in the morning ofMarch 12) we expect a strong (K = 7 or higher) geomagnetic storm due to the arrival of the magnetic cloud corresponding to the full halo CME onMarch 9. The proton flux at energies more than 10 MeV is currently above10 pfu level as the proton event is still going on. We expect it to last for at least another 12 hours.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

NASA also has revised the expected arrival time of incoming CME from the M6 flare.

Event Issue Date: 2012-03-09 22:20:36.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-11 08:33:12.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 11 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.3 Re
Sun, 11 Mar 2012 08:33:12 GMT

This means 4:30 AM EDST time (yes, Daylight Savings Time starts at 2 AM in most states). I hope IWTB will be here to monitor the situation (I need my beauty rest,lol).

Here's the NASA Cygnet Model for arrival of the next CME from today's C8/M8 tandem-flare(TM).

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Are there any forecast tracks that show both CMEs that are due to hit (tomorrow and whenever the LDE m8 hits)
old guard

User ID: 1405158
United States
03/10/2012 09:57 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
You guys rock...
banana2
SmileyWink
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 10498853
United States
03/10/2012 10:02 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What? No posts for an hour! I just went out to re-stock the bunker (running low on aspirin). SOHO still not updating! I guess everyone is getting a nap to be ready for the show or else they're all preparing to bug out. For anyone who missed the M8, here's the movie from Big Bear one more time.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

USAF Solar Doom Bunker:

[link to www.afweather.af.mil]

I noticed massive chem-trail operation this afternoon....still ongoing. Won't metallicizing the atmosphere make it MORE conductive?

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


How the heck did you get that pic? So they monitor everything 24 hours 7 days a week huh? WOW. We should be doing the same right?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano

It's amazing the things ya can find on the inter-webs. The AF has special weather operations and with all of that expensive hardware (X37b, spy satellites, and God-knows-what else) up in orbit; they damn better be prepared for space weather.

Oh, WE ARE doing the same (albeit on a lower budget, haha).

drevil
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I can imagine. I bet they can detect an ants fart vibration from deep within it's ant hole from way out there in space!
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


1rof1
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 10498853
United States
03/10/2012 10:11 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
just a reminder
we have a CME due to arrive on March 11th at 0649 UT (+/- 7 hr). NOAA forecasters say the odds of a strong geomagnetic storm at that time is 50%

Here is the report we did on the CME and associated solar flare
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

that is in around 3 1/2 hrs from now
and remember also there is a 7hr + or - window
so is due anything from right now up till 10hrs from now
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 12291895
United States
03/10/2012 10:14 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Confusion all around....
From SIDC today-

Tomorrow evening (or in the morning ofMarch 12) we expect a strong (K = 7 or higher) geomagnetic storm due to the arrival of the magnetic cloud corresponding to the full halo CME onMarch 9. The proton flux at energies more than 10 MeV is currently above10 pfu level as the proton event is still going on. We expect it to last for at least another 12 hours.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

NASA also has revised the expected arrival time of incoming CME from the M6 flare.

Event Issue Date: 2012-03-09 22:20:36.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-11 08:33:12.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 11 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.3 Re
Sun, 11 Mar 2012 08:33:12 GMT

This means 4:30 AM EDST time (yes, Daylight Savings Time starts at 2 AM in most states). I hope IWTB will be here to monitor the situation (I need my beauty rest,lol).

Here's the NASA Cygnet Model for arrival of the next CME from today's C8/M8 tandem-flare(TM).

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Are there any forecast tracks that show both CMEs that are due to hit (tomorrow and whenever the LDE m8 hits)
 Quoting: Starwind


Are you kidding? They can barely keep track of one. Stay tuned for an in-depth analysis of the new double-CME (potential kill-shot). I'm workin' hard for you, so NASA can spend the weekend on the freakin' golf course!
LOL!

Don't look now, but 1`429 is sticking its tongue out at you.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
tounge
El Quisqueyano

User ID: 12094494
United States
03/10/2012 10:14 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


How the heck did you get that pic? So they monitor everything 24 hours 7 days a week huh? WOW. We should be doing the same right?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano

It's amazing the things ya can find on the inter-webs. The AF has special weather operations and with all of that expensive hardware (X37b, spy satellites, and God-knows-what else) up in orbit; they damn better be prepared for space weather.

Oh, WE ARE doing the same (albeit on a lower budget, haha).

drevil
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I can imagine. I bet they can detect an ants fart vibration from deep within it's ant hole from way out there in space!
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


1rof1
 Quoting: NiNzrez


hf
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 12305396
United States
03/10/2012 10:18 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
just a reminder
we have a CME due to arrive on March 11th at 0649 UT (+/- 7 hr). NOAA forecasters say the odds of a strong geomagnetic storm at that time is 50%

Here is the report we did on the CME and associated solar flare
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

that is in around 3 1/2 hrs from now
and remember also there is a 7hr + or - window
so is due anything from right now up till 10hrs from now
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Hi, NIN. I guess you don't get to read all of the posts, but they pushed it back to 8:33 UTC and it's the beginning of Daylight Savings Time. So that's 4:30 AM EST/GLP time.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 3487467
United States
03/10/2012 10:30 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
are we in for a full carrington event at 430am?
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 12306182
United States
03/10/2012 10:36 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
UPDATE ON LATEST CME: The combination of an LDE C8 flare and CME from AR1430 followed by a M8 flare and CME from "the Beast" 1429 has sent a huge, fast coronal mass ejection towards Earth. Estimated speed approximately 1200-1400 km/sec. In my opinion, this could be a very serious hit. (If this was a carnival shooting gallery, the Sun would've won its pick of the top-shelf prizes).

From NOAA event summary:

Region 1430 (N21W42) produced
a C8 flare at 10/1552Z and Region 1429 (N18W26) produced a long
duration M8 flare at 10/1744Z with an associated Tenflare (459 sfu)
and a Type IV radio sweep. Both flares had associated CMEs. The
first CME appeared in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 10/1624Z with
the majority of the ejecta off the NW limb. The second CME,
associated with the M8 flare, first appeared in C2 imagery at
10/1800Z. Further analysis will be done as imagery becomes
available, however initial analysis indicated the event produced a
full-halo CME with an estimated plane-of-sky speed between 1200 -
1400 km/s.

Velocity Model:
:Velocity:
Density Model:
:Density:
Dynamic Pressure:
:Dynamic Pressure:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
hidingtomatohiding

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 03/10/2012 10:43 PM

News