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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
tomasgod1

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03/11/2012 05:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CME EARTHWARD DIRECTION....

Poomvises & Zhang (2007) found, from the study of solar and interplanetary sources of major geomagnetic storms ( nT), that the main source of a major geomagnetic storm is a fast full halo CME. Second, CME location and speed are also important geoeffective parameters. Wang et al. (2002) found that 83% of the frontside halo CMEs that caused geomagnetic storms with took place within ±30° of the central meridian and that their source locations are asymmetrical in longitude with the majority located on the west side of the central meridian. Srivastava & Venkatakrishnan (2004) showed that the CME speeds in the LASCO field of view were roughly correlated with the strength of geomagnetic storms and that a large percentage (62%) of the geoeffective CMEs are faster than 700 km s–1. Several studies suggested that fast halo CMEs, which occurred close to solar center, are favorable candidates for strong geomagnetic storms (Venkatakrishnan & Ravindra 2003; Srivastava 2005). Third, the magnetic field orientation of a CME's source region was suggested as an important parameter of the geoeffective CME (Pevtsov & Canfield 2001). Kang et al. (2006) found that southward orientation of the magnetic field in the CME source region plays an important role in the production of geomagnetic storm by investigation of the source region's shapes ( or inverse ) of the X-ray sigmoids associated with 63 CMEs. For about 84% of the CMEs, their geoeffective consequences are consistent with their magnetic field orientations. Song et al. (2006) showed that 92% ( ) of the CME source regions associated with the super storms ( nT) have southward field orientations as determined by the potential field extrapolation from daily full-disk MDI magnetograms. Fourth, Moon et al. (2005) proposed a CME earthward direction parameter, D (defined in § 2.2), that quantifies the degree of asymmetry of the CME shape. They found, using 12 events, that the CME earthward direction seems to be the most important parameter in the geoeffectiveness of very fast halo CMEs (≥1300 km s–1).

[link to iopscience.iop.org]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


ohyeah
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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
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Anonymous Coward
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03/11/2012 05:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hugh - Do you know how many CME's were earth directed during the solar storm 23 ? was there any filament erruption in solar cycle 23 ?

This is just to know what to expect from this solar flare cycle.
Luisport

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03/11/2012 05:21 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A very large prominence spanning the equivalent of at least 18 planet Earth's across is seen in the latest SDO images off the southeast limb.

Prominences are dense clouds of material suspended above the surface of the Sun by loops of magnetic field. Prominences and filaments are actually the same thing, except that prominences are seen projecting out above the limb, or edge, of the Sun. Both filaments and prominences can remain in a quiet or quiescent state for days or weeks. However, as the magnetic loops that support them slowly change, filaments and prominences can erupt and rise off of the Sun over the course of a few minutes or hours.New Sunspot in formation located in the southeast quadrant. Image by SDO. [link to www.facebook.com]

Last Edited by Luisport on 03/11/2012 05:28 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SolarHam.com

há 6 minutos.


A very large prominence spanning the equivalent of at least 18 planet Earth's across is seen in the latest SDO images off the southeast limb. [link to www.facebook.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


Is it a filament ?Is it earth directed?
Doompa Loompa

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03/11/2012 05:35 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
northeast limb looking absolutely gnarly

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Luisport

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03/11/2012 05:51 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
northeast limb looking absolutely gnarly

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Doompa Loompa


hiding
tomasgod1

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03/11/2012 05:59 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
UPDATE ON LATEST CME: The combination of an LDE C8 flare and CME from AR1430 followed by a M8 flare and CME from "the Beast" 1429 has sent a huge, fast coronal mass ejection towards Earth. Estimated speed approximately 1200-1400 km/sec. In my opinion, this could be a very serious hit. (If this was a carnival shooting gallery, the Sun would've won its pick of the top-shelf prizes).

From NOAA event summary:

Region 1430 (N21W42) produced
a C8 flare at 10/1552Z and Region 1429 (N18W26) produced a long
duration M8 flare at 10/1744Z with an associated Tenflare (459 sfu)
and a Type IV radio sweep. Both flares had associated CMEs. The
first CME appeared in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 10/1624Z with
the majority of the ejecta off the NW limb. The second CME,
associated with the M8 flare, first appeared in C2 imagery at
10/1800Z. Further analysis will be done as imagery becomes
available, however initial analysis indicated the event produced a
full-halo CME with an estimated plane-of-sky speed between 1200 -
1400 km/s.

Velocity Model:
:Velocity:
Density Model:
:Density:
Dynamic Pressure:
:Dynamic Pressure:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
hidingtomatohiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


TOM, LOOK'N, thanks for your greetings/posts which I somehow overlooked! What do you make of this double-trouble eruption today? Very hi-velocity full-halo following quick on the heels of this strong one may spell trouble for satellites. What do ya think?
Tom, how do you predict polarity, from your experience. (SIDC has predicted a south polarity for this morning's CME). Do you agree? And what about the new "complex ejecta" CME of today?
Sorry for the questions, but I get answer everybody's ?'s all day and I never get to ask my questions, hehehaha.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hi Hugh! Happy to answer. It looks to me like the CMEs were a combo from Regions 1430 and 1429 with 1430 leading. Generally once these Regions start getting this far toward the western limb, CMEs from that far out tend to only give us a glancing blow. However, anything that shows up on SOHO as a full halo CME usually is geoeffective. As to the orientation; I was going to do a presentation on this and just haven't had a chance yet. I wanted to have some mark ups of the SDO magnetogram for good visual aid. This cycle we started off with a high latitude sunspot in 2008, marking the beginning of cycle 24, and it was reversed in polarity from last cycles showing that the Suns poles had reversed as they do each new cycle. All the northern hemisphere regions should be N S, and we can see this represented on the magnetogram by the White for N(non colorized, Blue colorized), and Black for S(non colorized, Red colorized). Early on in the cycle almost all of the Sunspot Regions conform to this tidy standard with all northern hemisphere Regions being N S, and all southern Regions being S N. You can see this on the SDO Magnetogram. CMEs from the N S polarity Regions in the northern hemisphere arrive here with a southward orientation and CMEs from the S N polarity Regions in the southern hemisphere arrive here with a northward orientation. As the cycle progresses the polarity orientation of these regions begins to fluctuate and a close eye has to be kept on them to know what the orientation of the CME will be. Region 1429 is reversed in orientation in the northern hemisphere from all the others. It is oriented S N like all southern hemisphere regions and when the CME arrived on the 8th it was oriented north to south. I believe this one will be as well. When the CME that was ejected from both regions 1430 and 1429 arrive I believe it may very well arrive oriented S N but may also be one of those storms that the BznT swings back and forth constantly on.

:)

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 03/11/2012 07:02 AM
_______

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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Luisport

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03/11/2012 06:08 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
speed between 1200 -
1400 km/s??? Gezzz the last CME from the x flare don't reach the 1000km/sec... this will be bad isn't it?
tomasgod1

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03/11/2012 06:14 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
speed between 1200 -
1400 km/s??? Gezzz the last CME from the x flare don't reach the 1000km/sec... this will be bad isn't it?
 Quoting: Luisport


The last CME actually had an estimated plane of sky ejection speed of 2200 km/s. The Highest wind speed data observed from SOHO Celias during the passage of the CME was 980.80 km/s
_______

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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Luisport

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03/11/2012 06:19 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
speed between 1200 -
1400 km/s??? Gezzz the last CME from the x flare don't reach the 1000km/sec... this will be bad isn't it?
 Quoting: Luisport


The last CME actually had an estimated plane of sky ejection speed of 2200 km/s. The Highest wind speed data observed from SOHO Celias during the passage of the CME was 980.80 km/s
 Quoting: tomasgod1

Ok, and now for this one what do you think?
Luisport

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03/11/2012 06:21 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What is this big drop in blue line means? [link to www.n3kl.org]
Starwind

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03/11/2012 06:25 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What is this big drop in blue line means? [link to www.n3kl.org]
 Quoting: Luisport


there was about an hours gap on the 1 minute graph

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

For some reason the quantity was significantly lower when the graph re-updated, so the 5 minute chart had a line that dropped the difference from the high amount down to the new reading instantly, instead of whatever dip actually occurred in the reading.

Short answer is the x-ray flux dropped that much in an hour.
Luisport

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03/11/2012 06:28 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What is this big drop in blue line means? [link to www.n3kl.org]
 Quoting: Luisport


there was about an hours gap on the 1 minute graph

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

For some reason the quantity was significantly lower when the graph re-updated, so the 5 minute chart had a line that dropped the difference from the high amount down to the new reading instantly, instead of whatever dip actually occurred in the reading.

Short answer is the x-ray flux dropped that much in an hour.
 Quoting: Starwind


I never see a drop like this but ok...
tomasgod1

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03/11/2012 06:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
speed between 1200 -
1400 km/s??? Gezzz the last CME from the x flare don't reach the 1000km/sec... this will be bad isn't it?
 Quoting: Luisport


The last CME actually had an estimated plane of sky ejection speed of 2200 km/s. The Highest wind speed data observed from SOHO Celias during the passage of the CME was 980.80 km/s
 Quoting: tomasgod1

Ok, and now for this one what do you think?
 Quoting: Luisport


For the one that ejected today? I do not know, we will probably have Coronal Hole Winds along with it so it is hard to guess. I will take a guess for todays CME and say the top winds will be between 650 to 700 km/s but it is just that..an educated guess.
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
tomasgod1

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03/11/2012 06:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What is this big drop in blue line means? [link to www.n3kl.org]
 Quoting: Luisport


there was about an hours gap on the 1 minute graph

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

For some reason the quantity was significantly lower when the graph re-updated, so the 5 minute chart had a line that dropped the difference from the high amount down to the new reading instantly, instead of whatever dip actually occurred in the reading.

Short answer is the x-ray flux dropped that much in an hour.
 Quoting: Starwind


Backround never goes to zero. There is a gap in the data from the satellite line of site to the
Sun being eclipsed by the Moon.

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 03/11/2012 06:51 AM
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Anonymous Coward
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03/11/2012 07:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like starting

Induction magnetometer: [link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]
Luisport

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03/11/2012 07:05 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.n3kl.org] yes it seams to...
Anonymous Coward
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03/11/2012 08:13 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Happy Birthday to Me!
chorusbirthdaycheersband

What? No tsunami for me this year? wtf

Solar Doom....well, that's more like it!
dancedeadhorse5abonghitpump2
broccoliltanasidewaysangel4dead3rastabanan
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Happy Birthday Hugh :-)
Anonymous Coward
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03/11/2012 08:48 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Happy Birthday to Me!
chorusbirthdaycheersband

What? No tsunami for me this year? wtf

Solar Doom....well, that's more like it!
dancedeadhorse5abonghitpump2
broccoliltanasidewaysangel4dead3rastabanan
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Happy Birthday Hugh hf
Gabriel

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03/11/2012 08:51 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here is my Batman dance for you Hugh.... Happy Birthday

SexyBat
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03/11/2012 09:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here is my Batman dance for you Hugh.... Happy Birthday

:SexyBat:
 Quoting: Gabriel


TOO FUNNY !!
Anonymous Coward
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03/11/2012 09:20 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CME from the 6.3 hitting now I think?
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
Luisport

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03/11/2012 09:22 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CME from the 6.3 hitting now I think?
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1293441

Yes it seams to
Luisport

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03/11/2012 09:24 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big spike now! [link to www.n3kl.org]
shenue

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03/11/2012 09:26 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
UPDATE ON LATEST CME: The combination of an LDE C8 flare and CME from AR1430 followed by a M8 flare and CME from "the Beast" 1429 has sent a huge, fast coronal mass ejection towards Earth. Estimated speed approximately 1200-1400 km/sec. In my opinion, this could be a very serious hit. (If this was a carnival shooting gallery, the Sun would've won its pick of the top-shelf prizes).

From NOAA event summary:

Region 1430 (N21W42) produced
a C8 flare at 10/1552Z and Region 1429 (N18W26) produced a long
duration M8 flare at 10/1744Z with an associated Tenflare (459 sfu)
and a Type IV radio sweep. Both flares had associated CMEs. The
first CME appeared in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 10/1624Z with
the majority of the ejecta off the NW limb. The second CME,
associated with the M8 flare, first appeared in C2 imagery at
10/1800Z. Further analysis will be done as imagery becomes
available, however initial analysis indicated the event produced a
full-halo CME with an estimated plane-of-sky speed between 1200 -
1400 km/s.

Velocity Model:
:Velocity:
Density Model:
:Density:
Dynamic Pressure:
:Dynamic Pressure:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
hidingtomatohiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


TOM, LOOK'N, thanks for your greetings/posts which I somehow overlooked! What do you make of this double-trouble eruption today? Very hi-velocity full-halo following quick on the heels of this strong one may spell trouble for satellites. What do ya think?
Tom, how do you predict polarity, from your experience. (SIDC has predicted a south polarity for this morning's CME). Do you agree? And what about the new "complex ejecta" CME of today?
Sorry for the questions, but I get answer everybody's ?'s all day and I never get to ask my questions, hehehaha.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hi Hugh! Happy to answer. It looks to me like the CMEs were a combo from Regions 1430 and 1429 with 1430 leading. Generally once these Regions start getting this far toward the western limb, CMEs from that far out tend to only give us a glancing blow. However, anything that shows up on SOHO as a full halo CME usually is geoeffective. As to the orientation; I was going to do a presentation on this and just haven't had a chance yet. I wanted to have some mark ups of the SDO magnetogram for good visual aid. This cycle we started off with a high latitude sunspot in 2008, marking the beginning of cycle 24, and it was reversed in polarity from last cycles showing that the Suns poles had reversed as they do each new cycle. All the northern hemisphere regions should be N S, and we can see this represented on the magnetogram by the White for N(non colorized, Blue colorized), and Black for S(non colorized, Red colorized). Early on in the cycle almost all of the Sunspot Regions conform to this tidy standard with all northern hemisphere Regions being N S, and all southern Regions being S N. You can see this on the SDO Magnetogram. CMEs from the N S polarity Regions in the northern hemisphere arrive here with a southward orientation and CMEs from the S N polarity Regions in the southern hemisphere arrive here with a northward orientation. As the cycle progresses the polarity orientation of these regions begins to fluctuate and a close eye has to be kept on them to know what the orientation of the CME will be. Region 1429 is reversed in orientation in the northern hemisphere from all the others. It is oriented S N like all southern hemisphere regions and when the CME arrived on the 8th it was oriented north to south. I believe this one will be as well. When the CME that was ejected from both regions 1430 and 1429 arrive I believe it may very well arrive oriented S N but may also be one of those storms that the BznT swings back and forth constantly on.

:)
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Huh? ;-Þ
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
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03/11/2012 09:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Starting to heat up!

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
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03/11/2012 10:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Before it's "too late" (I have no idea what's about to happen but I'm just observing with every one else and trying to joke around to keep my head level above this potential doom): I've noticed an obviously weird piece of a potentially massive puzzle...

In the bottom left corner of the lasco c2 imagery you can find an apparent sphere either sending or receiving energy from the sun! Check it out [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Print screen this in to an image editor and play with the colors and light effects and you'll find that it's VERY perfectly spherical. The Lasco c2 images are obviously altered to some extent to show the surface of the sun but this object is unusually dark. If it disappears from the picture I'll try and upload my color edits so every one else can see this bizarre object.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1379864


SORRY! It's the AIA 171, NOT Lasco c2... Lasco c2 has no evidence of an object contained within.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1379864


No enlightened ones commenting on this artifact??
Jhoov82

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03/11/2012 10:04 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey op
clappa

FOR ALL THE GREAT INFO
MY YOUTUBE CHANNEL
[link to www.youtube.com]
zacksavage
~~Unbound~~

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03/11/2012 10:11 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Before it's "too late" (I have no idea what's about to happen but I'm just observing with every one else and trying to joke around to keep my head level above this potential doom): I've noticed an obviously weird piece of a potentially massive puzzle...

In the bottom left corner of the lasco c2 imagery you can find an apparent sphere either sending or receiving energy from the sun! Check it out [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Print screen this in to an image editor and play with the colors and light effects and you'll find that it's VERY perfectly spherical. The Lasco c2 images are obviously altered to some extent to show the surface of the sun but this object is unusually dark. If it disappears from the picture I'll try and upload my color edits so every one else can see this bizarre object.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1379864


Now that's very interesting.

Thanks for the great catch!!



Z
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one.

--- Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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03/11/2012 10:15 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Before it's "too late" (I have no idea what's about to happen but I'm just observing with every one else and trying to joke around to keep my head level above this potential doom): I've noticed an obviously weird piece of a potentially massive puzzle...

In the bottom left corner of the lasco c2 imagery you can find an apparent sphere either sending or receiving energy from the sun! Check it out [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Print screen this in to an image editor and play with the colors and light effects and you'll find that it's VERY perfectly spherical. The Lasco c2 images are obviously altered to some extent to show the surface of the sun but this object is unusually dark. If it disappears from the picture I'll try and upload my color edits so every one else can see this bizarre object.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1379864


Now that's very interesting.

Thanks for the great catch!!



Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


Awesome catch !!! Sorry I didn't see it earlier .... hf

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