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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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03/12/2012 08:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Spaceweather.com is reporting bright red aurora in the Southern Hemisphere.-

GEOMAGNETIC STORM UNDERWAY: A moderate G2-class geomagnetic storm is underway following the arrival of a CME on March 12th at ~0930 UT. The CME's impact caused strong ground currents in Norway. At the same time, photographic Southern Lights were recorded over New Zealand and Tasmania. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

Strong spike in ground currents detected in Nowrway.
Graph of CME impact:

[link to spaceweather.com]

NASA Magnetopause Simulation (watch what happens @09:30 utc):

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
:Mpause:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Go back and rewatch the magnetopause simulation from 16:00 on...
El Quisqueyano

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03/12/2012 08:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is that Phi(gam) the gamma density?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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03/12/2012 08:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is that Phi(gam) the gamma density?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Unsure if it applies here, but Phi tends to be the polar angle from the z axis in a spherical model... Theta and phi would be like lat and long? Unsure if I'm making sense. It's a guess on cough syrup. :)
El Quisqueyano

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03/12/2012 08:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Can some one here explain what this can do to our planet?

[link to www.lmsal.com]
whiteangel
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03/12/2012 08:32 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Can some one here explain what this can do to our planet?

[link to www.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Forbidden
AMERICA the Beautiful!!!
El Quisqueyano

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03/12/2012 08:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Can some one here explain what this can do to our planet?

[link to www.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Forbidden
 Quoting: whiteangel


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
MrAC2U

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03/12/2012 08:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
x-ray flux on the move - slowly C 3.9
old guard

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03/12/2012 08:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Can some one here explain what this can do to our planet?

[link to www.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Forbidden
 Quoting: whiteangel


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Worst of Coronal hole is below my latitude.
El Quisqueyano

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03/12/2012 08:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Can some one here explain what this can do to our planet?

[link to www.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Forbidden
 Quoting: whiteangel


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Worst of Coronal hole is below my latitude.
 Quoting: old guard


Worst of it is South American Continent and South African Continent?
Anonymous Coward
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03/12/2012 08:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Flux going up and Bz heading south.

We passed the 60 degree mark, right? :)
 Quoting: whiteangel


It's at 60 now
whiteangel
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03/12/2012 08:53 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Forbidden
 Quoting: whiteangel


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Worst of Coronal hole is below my latitude.
 Quoting: old guard


Worst of it is South American Continent and South African Continent?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


So the solar winds from this would only effect the southern lats?
AMERICA the Beautiful!!!
Hugh M Eye

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03/12/2012 08:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Flux going up and Bz heading south.

We passed the 60 degree mark, right? :)
 Quoting: whiteangel


It's at 60 now
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1624685

You are so correct AC, here in the heliographic map we can see 1429 is almost right on the 60 degree west longitude hash.

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AR1429 may be ready to give us another big flare. Previously, the C4 flare tended to precede the bigger flares. She may not be finished with us yet.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
whiteangel
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03/12/2012 08:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Gulp
AMERICA the Beautiful!!!
Anonymous Coward
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03/12/2012 08:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
... and sitting right on the magnetic highway ........
Hugh M Eye

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03/12/2012 09:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Worst of Coronal hole is below my latitude.
 Quoting: old guard


Worst of it is South American Continent and South African Continent?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


So the solar winds from this would only effect the southern lats?
 Quoting: whiteangel


That coronal hole is bigger than 100 Earth's, so whatever winds we get from it will affect the entire planet. The only question is which magnetic polarity will it have. Its solar winds aren't due to reach Earth until the 16th or thereabouts.

For further research-
[link to www.cfa.harvard.edu (secure)]

[link to solarphysics.livingreviews.org]
whiteangel
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03/12/2012 09:01 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
That's why I gulped, my coward streak came out, lol.
AMERICA the Beautiful!!!
Hugh M Eye

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03/12/2012 09:06 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NICT seems to be back up....Bz has been south for 6 hours, but only slightly so. The Kp-index is still considered quiet, so I guess the aurora show is off for tonight. Too bad this one hit at 5AM instead of 5PM. SW speed still a respectable 500+km/s.

NICT sim:
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
Veresanctus

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03/12/2012 09:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Worst of Coronal hole is below my latitude.
 Quoting: old guard


Worst of it is South American Continent and South African Continent?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


So the solar winds from this would only effect the southern lats?
 Quoting: whiteangel


That coronal hole is bigger than 100 Earth's, so whatever winds we get from it will affect the entire planet. The only question is which magnetic polarity will it have. Its solar winds aren't due to reach Earth until the 16th or thereabouts.

For further research-
[link to www.cfa.harvard.edu (secure)]

[link to solarphysics.livingreviews.org]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye



The eye of sauron sees us [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] ... Seriously though, it's huge

Last Edited by Veresanctus on 03/12/2012 09:39 PM
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amywood71605

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03/12/2012 09:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just wanted to say a big thank you to all of you who contribute so much to this thread, and Nin for creating it. I've come to look at this at least once a day (often more) and rely on it to stay up to date on the latest solar news. I'm a "newbie" I guess you could say to the solar stuff.....but trying my best to learn what I can. =) Thanks again - you guys do an awesome job!!

hf hf hf
"Live each day like it's your last, love like you've never been hurt, and dance like no one is watching."

GO PATS!!
Anonymous Coward
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03/12/2012 09:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I seem to have lost track of current solar events in the last couple days, so what is Space Weather's A>50 still warning us of ??? We should be clear for a couple days, shouldn't we ???


WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 13
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
amywood71605

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03/12/2012 09:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I seem to have lost track of current solar events in the last couple days, so what is Space Weather's A>50 warning us of ??? We should be clear for a couple days yes ?


WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 13
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
 Quoting: TS66


So look tomorrow night, or possible tonight? I'm in Northern Vermont and try to look any chance I can. Saw the aurora for my very first time back in January and it was awesome!
"Live each day like it's your last, love like you've never been hurt, and dance like no one is watching."

GO PATS!!
old guard

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03/12/2012 09:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Worst of it is South American Continent and South African Continent?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


So the solar winds from this would only effect the southern lats?
 Quoting: whiteangel


That coronal hole is bigger than 100 Earth's, so whatever winds we get from it will affect the entire planet. The only question is which magnetic polarity will it have. Its solar winds aren't due to reach Earth until the 16th or thereabouts.

For further research-
[link to www.cfa.harvard.edu (secure)]

[link to solarphysics.livingreviews.org]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye



The eye of sauron sees us [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] ... Seriously though, it's huge
 Quoting: Veresanctus


It's reducing in size
Anonymous Coward
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03/12/2012 09:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I seem to have lost track of current solar events in the last couple days, so what is Space Weather's A>50 warning us of ??? We should be clear for a couple days yes ?


WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 13
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
 Quoting: TS66


So look tomorrow night, or possible tonight? I'm in Northern Vermont and try to look any chance I can. Saw the aurora for my very first time back in January and it was awesome!
 Quoting: amywood71605


It's looking pretty quiet right now, and I'm not aware of any further incoming CMEs ... solar winds are still rather high, but proton flux is at a minimum, Bzs are settling down, couple of low level C flares ... Have I missed something ??

amy ~ Auroras are awesome, but I don't know that we will see any today or tomorrow. Other than this warning, everything else seems to indicate no. Again I feel like I missed something.
Spittin'Cesium

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03/12/2012 09:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey all : )

CH507 is reducing in size a little,thank goodness,thing was huge and had some apparent symmetry to it: [link to solen.info]

You can watch its' development as well as that incredible vortex that seemed to rip a CME from the Bottom-Left of the Disc after the original that was expelled from the same region: [link to stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu]

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 03/12/2012 10:01 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
OVRANALYZE

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03/12/2012 10:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey all : )

CH507 is reducing in size a little,thank goodness,thing was huge and had some apparent symmetry to it: [link to solen.info]

You can watch its' development as well as that incredible vortex that seemed to rip a CME from the Bottom-Left of the Disc after the original that was expelled from the same region: [link to stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


amazing..thanks for sharing that
Hugh M Eye

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03/12/2012 10:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I seem to have lost track of current solar events in the last couple days, so what is Space Weather's A>50 still warning us of ??? We should be clear for a couple days, shouldn't we ???


WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 13
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
 Quoting: TS66

I think that warning was issued before the CMEs early arrival. It was forecast to hit @18:00 UTC and the storm was forecast to last into the 13th. I think it should be cancelled unless the tail end of the CME hits us real hard.

For those who missed the 5AM wake-up call-
cmeimpact1
Mpause
old guard

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03/12/2012 10:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks...
Unfortunately, I'm on Pacific time, and behind you guys.
Spittin'Cesium

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03/12/2012 10:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I seem to have lost track of current solar events in the last couple days, so what is Space Weather's A>50 still warning us of ??? We should be clear for a couple days, shouldn't we ???


WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 13
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
 Quoting: TS66

I think that warning was issued before the CMEs early arrival. It was forecast to hit @18:00 UTC and the storm was forecast to last into the 13th. I think it should be cancelled unless the tail end of the CME hits us real hard.

For those who missed the 5AM wake-up call-
cmeimpact1
Mpause
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye




Oh my : ?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Dances
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03/12/2012 10:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NICT seems to be back up....Bz has been south for 6 hours, but only slightly so. The Kp-index is still considered quiet, so I guess the aurora show is off for tonight. Too bad this one hit at 5AM instead of 5PM. SW speed still a respectable 500+km/s.

NICT sim:
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Why has Nict posted no movies since the 8th ????

abduct
Anonymous Coward
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03/12/2012 10:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like there is still pressure?Any guesses?


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