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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
amywood71605

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03/12/2012 09:44 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I seem to have lost track of current solar events in the last couple days, so what is Space Weather's A>50 warning us of ??? We should be clear for a couple days yes ?


WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 13
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
 Quoting: TS66


So look tomorrow night, or possible tonight? I'm in Northern Vermont and try to look any chance I can. Saw the aurora for my very first time back in January and it was awesome!
"Live each day like it's your last, love like you've never been hurt, and dance like no one is watching."
old guard

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03/12/2012 09:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Worst of it is South American Continent and South African Continent?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


So the solar winds from this would only effect the southern lats?
 Quoting: whiteangel


That coronal hole is bigger than 100 Earth's, so whatever winds we get from it will affect the entire planet. The only question is which magnetic polarity will it have. Its solar winds aren't due to reach Earth until the 16th or thereabouts.

For further research-
[link to www.cfa.harvard.edu (secure)]

[link to solarphysics.livingreviews.org]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye



The eye of sauron sees us [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] ... Seriously though, it's huge
 Quoting: Veresanctus


It's reducing in size
Anonymous Coward
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03/12/2012 09:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I seem to have lost track of current solar events in the last couple days, so what is Space Weather's A>50 warning us of ??? We should be clear for a couple days yes ?


WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 13
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
 Quoting: TS66


So look tomorrow night, or possible tonight? I'm in Northern Vermont and try to look any chance I can. Saw the aurora for my very first time back in January and it was awesome!
 Quoting: amywood71605


It's looking pretty quiet right now, and I'm not aware of any further incoming CMEs ... solar winds are still rather high, but proton flux is at a minimum, Bzs are settling down, couple of low level C flares ... Have I missed something ??

amy ~ Auroras are awesome, but I don't know that we will see any today or tomorrow. Other than this warning, everything else seems to indicate no. Again I feel like I missed something.
Spittin'Cesium

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03/12/2012 09:52 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey all : )

CH507 is reducing in size a little,thank goodness,thing was huge and had some apparent symmetry to it: [link to solen.info]

You can watch its' development as well as that incredible vortex that seemed to rip a CME from the Bottom-Left of the Disc after the original that was expelled from the same region: [link to stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu]

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 03/12/2012 10:01 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
OVRANALYZE

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03/12/2012 10:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey all : )

CH507 is reducing in size a little,thank goodness,thing was huge and had some apparent symmetry to it: [link to solen.info]

You can watch its' development as well as that incredible vortex that seemed to rip a CME from the Bottom-Left of the Disc after the original that was expelled from the same region: [link to stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


amazing..thanks for sharing that
Hugh M Eye

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03/12/2012 10:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I seem to have lost track of current solar events in the last couple days, so what is Space Weather's A>50 still warning us of ??? We should be clear for a couple days, shouldn't we ???


WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 13
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
 Quoting: TS66

I think that warning was issued before the CMEs early arrival. It was forecast to hit @18:00 UTC and the storm was forecast to last into the 13th. I think it should be cancelled unless the tail end of the CME hits us real hard.

For those who missed the 5AM wake-up call-
cmeimpact1
Mpause
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
old guard

User ID: 1405158
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03/12/2012 10:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks...
Unfortunately, I'm on Pacific time, and behind you guys.
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 5369266
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03/12/2012 10:07 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I seem to have lost track of current solar events in the last couple days, so what is Space Weather's A>50 still warning us of ??? We should be clear for a couple days, shouldn't we ???


WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 13
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
 Quoting: TS66

I think that warning was issued before the CMEs early arrival. It was forecast to hit @18:00 UTC and the storm was forecast to last into the 13th. I think it should be cancelled unless the tail end of the CME hits us real hard.

For those who missed the 5AM wake-up call-
cmeimpact1
Mpause
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye




Oh my : ?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Dances
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03/12/2012 10:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NICT seems to be back up....Bz has been south for 6 hours, but only slightly so. The Kp-index is still considered quiet, so I guess the aurora show is off for tonight. Too bad this one hit at 5AM instead of 5PM. SW speed still a respectable 500+km/s.

NICT sim:
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Why has Nict posted no movies since the 8th ????

abduct
Anonymous Coward
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03/12/2012 10:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like there is still pressure?Any guesses?
old guard

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03/12/2012 10:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
solar wind speed 578.7

BZ at -1.4

K index at 3

[link to www.solarham.com]
Spittin'Cesium

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03/12/2012 10:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like there is still pressure?Any guesses?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12416182


You mean Solar Wind?
That would be the Coronal Hole 507..SW is pretty high right now,around 600KmS.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 03/12/2012 10:27 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
old guard

User ID: 1405158
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03/12/2012 10:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like there is still pressure?Any guesses?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12416182


You mean Solar Wind?
That would be the Coronal Hole 507..SW is pretty high right now,around 600KmS.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


The info is from 02:22 GMT time by the map data
Spittin'Cesium

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03/12/2012 10:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Whoa!

[link to soho.esac.esa.int]

Eruption on the South-East of the Disc!

Sorry..that was the European Site....Big time lag on image updates : (

I could run their site better than these folks at NASA ESA do..infact we all could.

They never appear to be at their respective desks..they just wait for us lot to point everything out.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 03/12/2012 10:57 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
EndOfAll

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03/12/2012 11:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey all,

Been out a couple days. But I must say the sun has still been working. Been very hot here in northern az. I see now from all yalls data for the last few days why.
EndOfAll
Anonymous Coward
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03/12/2012 11:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I seem to have lost track of current solar events in the last couple days, so what is Space Weather's A>50 warning us of ??? We should be clear for a couple days yes ?


WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 13
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
 Quoting: TS66


So look tomorrow night, or possible tonight? I'm in Northern Vermont and try to look any chance I can. Saw the aurora for my very first time back in January and it was awesome!
 Quoting: amywood71605


Hate you live so far away! But I will say again "GARSH! YOU ARE PRETTY!
luvstruk
EndOfAll

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03/13/2012 03:18 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 1891 Issue Time: 2012 Mar 13 0558 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 1890 Valid From: 2012 Mar 12 0900 UTC Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 13 1500 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
EndOfAll
Spittin'Cesium

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03/13/2012 04:37 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Protons on the rise again:

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 350
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 13 0800 UTC

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 13 0800 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 13 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2012 06:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like NICT is up and running again. [link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Still quite a bit of pressure on the magnetosphere. Looks like a long duration C flare starting at 06:55 UTC, and topping out at C3.1. After the week we had, a C may look dull in comparison, but it can still put out a nice CME if the conditions are right. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Unfortunately, EVE is still down, and with my lack of discernment with the other images, I can't say which Sunspot may have been the culprit(s) without it.

It surprised me that NOAA did not cancel the A>50 sudden impulse warnings, so I can only believe they have more information than I am not able to process to justify it's continuance.

At a loss this morning, but Good Morning just the same. hf
Luisport

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03/13/2012 07:59 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone!hf
shadasonic

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03/13/2012 08:10 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like NICT is up and running again. [link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Still quite a bit of pressure on the magnetosphere. Looks like a long duration C flare starting at 06:55 UTC, and topping out at C3.1. After the week we had, a C may look dull in comparison, but it can still put out a nice CME if the conditions are right. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Unfortunately, EVE is still down, and with my lack of discernment with the other images, I can't say which Sunspot may have been the culprit(s) without it.

It surprised me that NOAA did not cancel the A>50 sudden impulse warnings, so I can only believe they have more information than I am not able to process to justify it's continuance.

At a loss this morning, but Good Morning just the same. hf
 Quoting: TS66


I believe so TS, 'real' information is for another group. 'Buzz' Aldren said the lies different on every level. Nasa saying ACE sat. maybe going down for the count soon. WHY don't we have an exstensive network of warning satellites? I feel solar anomalies are of the greatest concern and yet nasa states their only early warning sat. is acting up. Thats what I mean by real info, they have other warning satellites, just not for our knowledge or benefit.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shenue

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03/13/2012 08:13 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning fellow sun followers.
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2012 08:14 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
HughesNet Satellite Internet OUTAGE since Last night.

General announcement on Customer Support phone..


" Call back at later time..." HA

Solar Related ???

Dial-up backup stinks, but at least it's working.. ( better than nothing )
Luisport

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03/13/2012 08:15 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Worst of Coronal hole is below my latitude.
 Quoting: old guard


Worst of it is South American Continent and South African Continent?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


So the solar winds from this would only effect the southern lats?
 Quoting: whiteangel


That coronal hole is bigger than 100 Earth's, so whatever winds we get from it will affect the entire planet. The only question is which magnetic polarity will it have. Its solar winds aren't due to reach Earth until the 16th or thereabouts.

For further research-
[link to www.cfa.harvard.edu (secure)]

[link to solarphysics.livingreviews.org]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye



I received quite a bit of questions concerning the big dark triangle shape located in the middle of the visible solar disk. What you are looking at is a large Coronal Hole that has opened up. This is basically a hole in the Sun's atmosphere and is associated with open magnetic field lines. High speed solar winds will flow from these regions and once the hole is squarely facing Earth, you can sometimes expect increased geomagnetic activity within several days. In the daily Solar Reports you will sometimes see the term CH Stream. This stands for Coronal Hole Stream. We can expect the next CH stream by this weekend. [link to www.facebook.com]
shadasonic

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03/13/2012 08:21 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Worst of it is South American Continent and South African Continent?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


So the solar winds from this would only effect the southern lats?
 Quoting: whiteangel


That coronal hole is bigger than 100 Earth's, so whatever winds we get from it will affect the entire planet. The only question is which magnetic polarity will it have. Its solar winds aren't due to reach Earth until the 16th or thereabouts.

For further research-
[link to www.cfa.harvard.edu (secure)]

[link to solarphysics.livingreviews.org]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye



I received quite a bit of questions concerning the big dark triangle shape located in the middle of the visible solar disk. What you are looking at is a large Coronal Hole that has opened up. This is basically a hole in the Sun's atmosphere and is associated with open magnetic field lines. High speed solar winds will flow from these regions and once the hole is squarely facing Earth, you can sometimes expect increased geomagnetic activity within several days. In the daily Solar Reports you will sometimes see the term CH Stream. This stands for Coronal Hole Stream. We can expect the next CH stream by this weekend. [link to www.facebook.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


Crazy, have you ever seen a coronal triangle before? Will the size show the same subsequent energy transfer, lets hope not
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
aether

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03/13/2012 08:22 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good Morning Nin... have you had any time to take a look at the mysterious black sphere that has become so popular recently? I would really like to hear your best speculation.

Thanks
 Quoting: PolarBear418


I think it took off PolarBear,...




Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


Yes, but do we have any true educated guesses as to what the hell it was before essentially detaching and drifting off?
 Quoting: PolarBear418


amazing video!
looking at that, we can see very clear, that whatever this sphere is that is hovering above the sun, it consists of some sort of solid mass
if it was not solid mass, being of the size it is, it would most def change shape as it remained above the solar surface, as well as when it moved away
no change in shape is seen
its just moves away = solid mass

now to the question, was it taking from the sun, or putting something on it
well, when it moves away from the solar surface, we can see that the stream of plasma that was between the sphere and the solar surface, leave the sun with the sphere as it moves away
this would sugest that this object was "Taking" plasma from the sun
also to note, this anomaly occured in the same area that we see a filament ejection today. imteresting stuff for sure
this is just all my guess on it ^^
 Quoting: NiNzrez


the update says you are correct: :rockon:

Spherical anomaly on sun ** UPDATE ** Sphere shoots away VIDEO
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]

Last Edited by aether on 03/13/2012 08:22 AM
aether

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03/13/2012 08:23 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
why is my rockon not working huffy

Last Edited by aether on 03/13/2012 08:24 AM
aether

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03/13/2012 08:25 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
why is my rockon not working huffy
 Quoting: aether


edit

that`s nuts alien03
Luisport

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03/13/2012 08:30 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solar Flare Risk M-Class: 30% X-Class: 10% [link to www.solarham.com]
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2012 08:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Dr. Strong's take on the strange solar anomaly.


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