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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
MamaHasAwakened

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03/15/2012 09:13 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm guessing NICT down.

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Blank screen for me.
aether

User ID: 1412926
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03/15/2012 09:14 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good Morning!
And congrats on 700 pages!
One of 2 personal pins on GLP, and I read first every day.
Many thanks to all who contribute, with special thanks to Nin!

moshpit
 Quoting: Doobie


bump
nerdrage88sasr

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03/15/2012 09:20 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Interesting- just put up, not sure if anyone has seen/discussed this yet?

[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov] EG5&orb=1
[link to spaceweather.com]

On April 02nd - Comet 2012EG5 will come .7 LD from earth, 65m radius...but get this CON CODE 9!!

interesting yes? they must be going through the data still? as it changes its details reguarly?

Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12394735
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03/15/2012 09:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I prefer visuals, the graphs make me nauseous (seriously !! ) This is not as user friendly as NICT, but you can see the electron flux hit around 12:15 UTC today.

UTC time right now is 3/15/12 13:19

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

So it would seem that yes we have pressure coming in from "out there" this morning.

Perhaps this (From Nin's blog)

We just got a new CME arrival calculation in from NASA.

Event Issue Date: 2012-03-13 20:18:02.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-15 06:20:06.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours

Disturbance Duration: 11 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.1 Re

[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
WingnAPrayer

User ID: 4808727
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03/15/2012 09:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Interesting- just put up, not sure if anyone has seen/discussed this yet?

[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov] EG5&orb=1
[link to spaceweather.com]

On April 02nd - Comet 2012EG5 will come .7 LD from earth, 65m radius...but get this CON CODE 9!!

interesting yes? they must be going through the data still? as it changes its details reguarly?

Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


Hmmm- It was updated just yesterday... Interesting Indeed!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12394735
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03/15/2012 09:35 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Interesting- just put up, not sure if anyone has seen/discussed this yet?

[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov] EG5&orb=1
[link to spaceweather.com]

On April 02nd - Comet 2012EG5 will come .7 LD from earth, 65m radius...but get this CON CODE 9!!

interesting yes? they must be going through the data still? as it changes its details reguarly?

Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


Wow !! Absolutely !! Another one within the moon's orbital path. Looks like July 3 2015 within .624 AU.

[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]

Nice catch hf
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 12557139
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03/15/2012 09:53 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well, it's here!

Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 149
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 15 1314 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Mar 15 1309 UTC
Deviation: 27 nT
Station: Boulder

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Real-time magnetopase and bow-shock simulation:

[link to pixie.spasci.com]

ACE SW data:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
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03/15/2012 10:20 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Bz heading way south and solar winds picking up.

Showing a rise in K-index:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
“I can see how it might be possible for a man to look down upon the earth and be an atheist, but I cannot conceive how a man could look up into the heavens and say there is no God.”

--Abraham Lincoln
aether

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03/15/2012 10:21 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
thinking about it there is no scale (size) a plasma orb cannot become and if the plasma is functioning in dark mode when it leaves the sun............

Electric currents in plasma take on three basic modes -- dark, glow or arc -- depending on the voltage and charge density.
 Quoting: observation


...........it would detectable (visible) only by utilizing magnetometers and charged particle detectors

i imagine
 Quoting: aether


feedback

The Dark of the Sun
Mar 15, 2012

Dark mode plasma phenomena exist on the Sun.


The image at the top of the page is the most detailed ever taken of the Sun’s chromosphere. The smallest features are 130 kilometers in size. Each spicule is about 480 kilometers in diameter, with a length of 3200 kilometers. The largest measure as much as 8000 kilometers long. Although the light and dark regions are colorful, the colors were added in processing.............
 Quoting: observation

[link to www.thunderbolts.info]
Starwind

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03/15/2012 10:24 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I've been out a few days, what is it we are getting now? A CME I missed?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Density/speed have risen and the BZ has went south
Hugh M Eye

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03/15/2012 10:24 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 1567
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 15 1329 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 15 1329 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Electron flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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03/15/2012 10:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I've been out a few days, what is it we are getting now? A CME I missed?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Density/speed have risen and the BZ has went south
 Quoting: Starwind


We're getting the CME launched from the M7 flare on the 13th from 1429. Later, the coronal hole wind-streams get here; possibly followed by 2 more weak CMEs from the M-flares produced by AR 1432 (yesterday and today). Could be another stormy week in geo-space.
whiteangel

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03/15/2012 10:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I've been out a few days, what is it we are getting now? A CME I missed?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Density/speed have risen and the BZ has went south
 Quoting: Starwind


Yes CME for the 13th
“I can see how it might be possible for a man to look down upon the earth and be an atheist, but I cannot conceive how a man could look up into the heavens and say there is no God.”

--Abraham Lincoln
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 10:41 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
GEOMAGNETIC SUDDEN IMPULSE ALERT:
A Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse measuring 27nT was detected at 13:09 UTC. This signals the passage of an IP Shock.
Geomagnetic Storm conditions may soon be possible. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com.

[link to www.solarham.com]
whiteangel

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03/15/2012 10:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 758
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 15 1425 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 15 1426 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 15 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
“I can see how it might be possible for a man to look down upon the earth and be an atheist, but I cannot conceive how a man could look up into the heavens and say there is no God.”

--Abraham Lincoln
Luisport

User ID: 12557574
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03/15/2012 10:44 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
magnetometer values continue to rise... [link to www.n3kl.org]
Hugh M Eye

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03/15/2012 10:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

positive Mag North took a dive

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]
Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


Yep, looks like this one might be strongly geo-effective.
FraudulentZodiac

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03/15/2012 10:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12031867


bumpbump

Why was the direction of the magnetic pressure flipped??? If you go back to look at the NICT it is blank for that time.

wtf
"All energy flows according to the whims of the Great Magnet" - Hunter S. Thompson

"None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free." - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

We are all just ins inside the out, and outs inside the ins.
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 10:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12031867


bumpbump

Why was the direction of the magnetic pressure flipped??? If you go back to look at the NICT it is blank for that time.

wtf
 Quoting: FraudulentZodiac


hugh, ninz, tgod, anybody want to tackle this question for us?

oe..
Luisport

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03/15/2012 10:54 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
magnetometer values continue to rise... [link to www.n3kl.org]
 Quoting: Luisport


Very big spike now!!!
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 11:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
aurora sim is back up now btw..

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 11:05 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.com]

[link to www.irf.se]
whiteangel

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03/15/2012 11:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
K-index on college is already K-7
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
“I can see how it might be possible for a man to look down upon the earth and be an atheist, but I cannot conceive how a man could look up into the heavens and say there is no God.”

--Abraham Lincoln
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 11:17 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CME for last 2 M flares are negligable considering the kind of CME we got hit last week. Looks like a quite week going forward
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12551913


You have to be chuckling to yourself at this point considering the irony of your ongoing statements .... every time you make them burnit
El Quisqueyano

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03/15/2012 11:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Significant earthquake precursor signal detected on 03/15/12 at 1503utc/1103est. Possible 6+.

Radio Direction Finder has signal coming in East of France from somewhere out in the Northern, Mid to Southern portions of the Pacific plate to Alaska, Canada and Chile.


All who live anywhere in the vicinity of this line trajectory should be wary next 5 hours. Have escape plan ready and seek open terrain in the event of felt tremor. Secure most of your heavy objects and belongings around your home.


Namaste,

Hopefully I am wrong. Or it hits an unpopulated area.
Japan is also a likely target. Be wary.
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/15/2012 11:30 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solar Activity Update - CME Impact + M1.8 Flare
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

im heading back out for a few
i will go through posts and update everything when i get back in for the day
:)
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 11:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solar Activity Update - CME Impact + M1.8 Flare
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

im heading back out for a few
i will go through posts and update everything when i get back in for the day
:)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thank you and enjoy your beautiful day Nin !!! hf
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 11:35 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I really don't think that was 'Snap-Back' we are seeing there -Spittin Cesium

Is this a reversal?
Hugh M Eye

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03/15/2012 11:42 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12031867


bumpbump

Why was the direction of the magnetic pressure flipped??? If you go back to look at the NICT it is blank for that time.

wtf
 Quoting: FraudulentZodiac


hugh, ninz, tgod, anybody want to tackle this question for us?

oe..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 4526619


I believe what we were seeing the other day was a magnetic substorm and the result of Birkeland Currents streaming from a reconnection in the magnetotail. Here is a diagram showing the complexity of the electro-magnetic interactions caused by strong geomagnetic events.
[link to en.wikipedia.org]

In this video we can see a reversal of the current flow towards the night side.

[link to www.youtube.com]

These substorms and current flows in the magnetotail are still under much investigation and are not entirely understood. This why they've been launching rockets into aurora and launching many missions to study these phenomena (Cluster, THEMIS, and Geotail missins come to mind).

"Auroral arcs generally extend in the east-west direction, and Birkeland believed that substorm currents flowed horizontally along them, connecting to space at the ends of the arcs. Satellites have confirmed that electric currents indeed enter the atmosphere from far-away space, flow horizontally for some distance and then head out again; and although their actual structure differs greatly from Birkeland's model, they are now known as Birkeland currents.
They represent a new and altogether different type of electric current in space. Other currents described so far--the ring current, the current on the magnetopause which confines the Earth's field, and the plasma sheet current which flows across the tail--all are "coasting currents" and (in principle) consume no energy. As long as a plasma is present in a suitable magnetic field, the spiraling and drifting motions of its ions and electrons automatically produce the electric current flow.

Electric currents which flow in and out of the ionosphere are more like house currents, which need a voltage (a kind of electrical pressure) to drive them through wires and appliances, and which do transmit energy. Indeed, Birkeland currents might be one of the avenues by which the magnetosphere extracts energy from the solar wind."--

more on substorms and currents here: [link to www.phy6.org]
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 12:06 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
thx hugh, great info and posting as usual.. you are one of the good ones:) I'm using it elsewhere if you don't mind..


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