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| 07:08 AM | ||
| Users Online Now: 1,872 (Who's On?) | Visitors Today: 526,126 | |
| Pageviews Today: 1,785,861 | Threads Today: 284 | Posts Today: 4,460 |
| 07:08 AM | ||
SOLAR WATCH * 252 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily) | |
Luisport User ID: 12557574  Portugal03/15/2012 02:14 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| shadasonic slumbering no more User ID: 10309055  United States03/15/2012 02:16 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I know its not the case but it looks like a polarity reversal It is sufficiently clear that all things change, yet nothing truly perishes! It riles THEM to believe that you perceive the web they weave- moody blues |
| Luisport User ID: 12557574 Portugal03/15/2012 02:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| shadasonic slumbering no more User ID: 10309055 United States03/15/2012 02:20 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | interesting to see if we don't get a Kp 8 or 9 out of CME,coronal hole combo. The coronal hole has me anxious, if the polarity is right we can have a steady hum dinger of a storm It is sufficiently clear that all things change, yet nothing truly perishes! It riles THEM to believe that you perceive the web they weave- moody blues |
| Luisport User ID: 12557574 Portugal03/15/2012 02:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| tomasgod1 User ID: 11714381 United States03/15/2012 02:34 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | We are now at G2 storm status. Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06 Serial Number: 283 Issue Time: 2012 Mar 15 1724 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 15 1724 UTC Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washinton state. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] _______ Blog [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] YouTube Channel [link to www.youtube.com] "Give me Liberty, or give me Death!" FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799) |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 9488664 United States03/15/2012 02:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 9488664 United States03/15/2012 02:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| tomasgod1 User ID: 11714381 United States03/15/2012 02:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | BznT swinging back and forth at the moment. Current ACE Data: 2012 03 15 @ 18:31 UT BynT 12.8 BznT 1.9 Density p/cc 1.3 Bulk Speed km/s 740.2 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 03/15/2012 02:44 PM _______ Blog [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] YouTube Channel [link to www.youtube.com] "Give me Liberty, or give me Death!" FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799) |
| Luisport User ID: 12557574 Portugal03/15/2012 02:45 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| tomasgod1 User ID: 11714381 United States03/15/2012 02:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The two CME models are completely different! In fact the forecast time of arrival differs by 24 hours! I guess each government agency uses its own special mathematics. No wonder we're 20 trillion dollars over budget, LOL. Quoting: Hugh M Eye NASA-arrival of CME @06:00 on 3/15 [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] NOAA-arrival time @08:00 on 3/16 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]  NOAA didn't even have an A-index watch up for today. They are so pathetic. Let me do the honors! [link to www.youtube.com] _______ Blog [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] YouTube Channel [link to www.youtube.com] "Give me Liberty, or give me Death!" FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799) |
| TS66 User ID: 12394735 United States03/15/2012 03:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The two CME models are completely different! In fact the forecast time of arrival differs by 24 hours! I guess each government agency uses its own special mathematics. No wonder we're 20 trillion dollars over budget, LOL. Quoting: Hugh M Eye NASA-arrival of CME @06:00 on 3/15 [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] NOAA-arrival time @08:00 on 3/16 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] NOAA didn't even have an A-index watch up for today. They are so pathetic. Let me do the honors! [link to www.youtube.com] Love those chimps !!!  Last Edited by TS66 on 03/15/2012 03:12 PM Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it ~ Andre Gide |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 4526619 United States03/15/2012 03:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The two CME models are completely different! In fact the forecast time of arrival differs by 24 hours! I guess each government agency uses its own special mathematics. No wonder we're 20 trillion dollars over budget, LOL. Quoting: Hugh M Eye NASA-arrival of CME @06:00 on 3/15 [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] NOAA-arrival time @08:00 on 3/16 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] :farside: NOAA didn't even have an A-index watch up for today. They are so pathetic. Let me do the honors! [link to www.youtube.com] and the cme coming out the other side from that comet, not related according to the banana crew.. they have been consistently bad at predictions this last week, it's nice to have some consistency at least:) nice mysolaralerts page btw.. oe.. |
| FraudulentZodiac User ID: 8190102 United States03/15/2012 04:01 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to www.youtube.com] Quoting: FraudulentZodiac *Wont let me imbed that video for some reason. I know how, just wont let me. hmmmm..... Don't use the "embeded" version of the url. Still no answers to where this magnetic wind is coming from.... Last Edited by FraudulentZodiac on 03/15/2012 04:36 PM "All energy flows according to the whims of the Great Magnet" - Hunter S. Thompson "None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free." - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe We are all just ins inside the out, and outs inside the ins. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 4526619 United States03/15/2012 04:24 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| TS66 User ID: 12394735 United States03/15/2012 04:24 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Are you asking how to imbed a you tube here ? If so, take a look when you reply to this. See the You tube button above ??/ press it, then no spaces, copy and paste the link, then no spaces, hit the you tube button again and you are good  Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it ~ Andre Gide |
| FraudulentZodiac User ID: 8190102 United States03/15/2012 04:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Are you asking how to imbed a you tube here ? If so, take a look when you reply to this. See the You tube button above ??/ press it, then no spaces, copy and paste the link, then no spaces, hit the you tube button again and you are good Quoting: TS66 Are you replying to me? Because I absolutely know how already. "All energy flows according to the whims of the Great Magnet" - Hunter S. Thompson "None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free." - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe We are all just ins inside the out, and outs inside the ins. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 12031867  Canada03/15/2012 04:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Are you asking how to imbed a you tube here ? If so, take a look when you reply to this. See the You tube button above ??/ press it, then no spaces, copy and paste the link, then no spaces, hit the you tube button again and you are good Quoting: TS66 or... paste youtube url into your reply then highlight it and click the youtube button just once. you do have to make sure that you copy the url that does not have the word imbed in it already when copying from another site. I'm not a techy so I'm not very good at explaining this. |
| Hugh M Eye User ID: 12567962 United States03/15/2012 05:40 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yeah, I was looking at that yesterday. I'm sure NINzrez will update us on that region, i'm no expert on sunspot polarity. If I find time, I'll do more research on this. Thanks for posting. "There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life." Frank Zappa "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein |
| EW User ID: 12458942  Australia03/15/2012 05:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Another quick question if you dont mind, I have found a list of flares & spe's from the 50's,60's however Im not sure how to determine the direction, Im assuming back then we were only detecting earth directed ones right since we had no satelites in orbit to watch the sun like we do now?.. Quoting: EW 12458942 here is the link and directions to the page if anyone can teach me how to figure it out... [link to www.ngdc.noaa.gov] Then click on FTP access tab in the menu bar Then choose solar data, then choose solar flares, then choose flares index, then choose mcmath, then choose CF115 80 TXT.. if you can show me how i can figure out if these were earth directed i would appreciate it .. mwahs! Just wondering if anyone had looked at this and could tell me how to figure out the direction of the flares listed.. mwahs Enchanted |
| Palm User ID: 12250173 United States03/15/2012 06:00 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| El Quisqueyano User ID: 12576855 United States03/15/2012 06:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It is here: [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] You have to select the Magnetoshere tab, then arrow over to the Magnetopause simulation. I have tried to run it for those dates 3 times today and my Firefox has crashed every time. Hey Thanks. Not quite the same simulation though. [link to skreened.com] The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who in the name of charity and good will shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers! And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee!" Ezekiel 25:17 "Worst come to worst, my peoples come FIRST" Dilated Peoples |
| El Quisqueyano User ID: 12576855 United States03/15/2012 06:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I know the Youtube link. What I mean is what site is that Youtube clip getting that simulation from? Sorry i don't know... [link to skreened.com] The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who in the name of charity and good will shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers! And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee!" Ezekiel 25:17 "Worst come to worst, my peoples come FIRST" Dilated Peoples |
| FraudulentZodiac User ID: 8190102 United States03/15/2012 06:31 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It is here: [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080] You have to select the Magnetoshere tab, then arrow over to the Magnetopause simulation. I have tried to run it for those dates 3 times today and my Firefox has crashed every time. Hey Thanks. Not quite the same simulation though. Actually it is. They give the link in the desc. of that video I posted. After you click the Magnetosphere tab you must use the arrows at the bottom to view the "Magnetopause Position Movie", it is on the 3rd page. Last Edited by FraudulentZodiac on 03/15/2012 06:31 PM "All energy flows according to the whims of the Great Magnet" - Hunter S. Thompson "None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free." - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe We are all just ins inside the out, and outs inside the ins. |
| El Quisqueyano User ID: 12576855 United States03/15/2012 06:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | thx hugh, great info and posting as usual.. you are one of the good ones:) I'm using it elsewhere if you don't mind.. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 4526619 I know the Youtube link. What I mean is what site is that Youtube clip getting that simulation from? Sorry i don't know... I don't know who uploaded YT vid, may be from a NASA press conference or news release. Here's a similar model from NASA: [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] NASA super-computer modeling homepage (you may need special data and/or software, computing power, bandwidth, etc. Some of these models will crash your browser if you lack the needed RAM): [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] The best tool I've found for understanding the behavior of SW particles and the magnetosphere is NASA's MAGNETO-MINI-GOLF (I'm not joking): [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Feel free to spread any knowledge you find here. Everything I've researched in this field was due to learning from this thread and using inter-web searches to dig a little deeper. Knowledge can be fun! Wow kewl, scored poorly though +8/ But it was fun and I learned fromt it. Namaste. [link to skreened.com] The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who in the name of charity and good will shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers! And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee!" Ezekiel 25:17 "Worst come to worst, my peoples come FIRST" Dilated Peoples |
| El Quisqueyano User ID: 12576855 United States03/15/2012 07:05 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation |  Why was the direction of the magnetic pressure flipped??? If you go back to look at the NICT it is blank for that time.  hugh, ninz, tgod, anybody want to tackle this question for us? oe.. I believe what we were seeing the other day was a magnetic substorm and the result of Birkeland Currents streaming from a reconnection in the magnetotail. Here is a diagram showing the complexity of the electro-magnetic interactions caused by strong geomagnetic events. [link to en.wikipedia.org] In this video we can see a reversal of the current flow towards the night side. [link to www.youtube.com] These substorms and current flows in the magnetotail are still under much investigation and are not entirely understood. This why they've been launching rockets into aurora and launching many missions to study these phenomena (Cluster, THEMIS, and Geotail missins come to mind). "Auroral arcs generally extend in the east-west direction, and Birkeland believed that substorm currents flowed horizontally along them, connecting to space at the ends of the arcs. Satellites have confirmed that electric currents indeed enter the atmosphere from far-away space, flow horizontally for some distance and then head out again; and although their actual structure differs greatly from Birkeland's model, they are now known as Birkeland currents. They represent a new and altogether different type of electric current in space. Other currents described so far--the ring current, the current on the magnetopause which confines the Earth's field, and the plasma sheet current which flows across the tail--all are "coasting currents" and (in principle) consume no energy. As long as a plasma is present in a suitable magnetic field, the spiraling and drifting motions of its ions and electrons automatically produce the electric current flow. Electric currents which flow in and out of the ionosphere are more like house currents, which need a voltage (a kind of electrical pressure) to drive them through wires and appliances, and which do transmit energy. Indeed, Birkeland currents might be one of the avenues by which the magnetosphere extracts energy from the solar wind."-- more on substorms and currents here: [link to www.phy6.org] I have seen the Magnetopause Position Movie that is on the first video above. The simulation I have never seen is for the second video on the bottom. Does anyone have a link to that kind of simulation? That one seems more informative. [link to skreened.com] The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who in the name of charity and good will shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers! And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee!" Ezekiel 25:17 "Worst come to worst, my peoples come FIRST" Dilated Peoples |
| Hugh M Eye User ID: 12580125 United States03/15/2012 07:07 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Another quick question if you dont mind, I have found a list of flares & spe's from the 50's,60's however Im not sure how to determine the direction, Im assuming back then we were only detecting earth directed ones right since we had no satelites in orbit to watch the sun like we do now?.. Quoting: EW 12458942 here is the link and directions to the page if anyone can teach me how to figure it out... [link to www.ngdc.noaa.gov] Then click on FTP access tab in the menu bar Then choose solar data, then choose solar flares, then choose flares index, then choose mcmath, then choose CF115 80 TXT.. if you can show me how i can figure out if these were earth directed i would appreciate it .. mwahs! Just wondering if anyone had looked at this and could tell me how to figure out the direction of the flares listed.. mwahs Enchanted Well they would all be on the Earth-facing side of the disk since they were observed from Earth. That's some really obscure data you dug up; they list a latitude and longitude for each flare, so I guess you could plot them on a chart. Flares and CMEs are two different things you understand. I'm just not clear what you want to know. Here's a much better flare list to use (but it doesn't go back to 1950's) and they do have an archive back to 2002. [link to www.lmsal.com] "There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life." Frank Zappa "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein |
| Hugh M Eye User ID: 12580125 United States03/15/2012 08:09 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The simulation posted earlier was from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. I'm not sure where this one is from, but you can see the ring current forming on the night-side of Earth in the lower right-hand box. [link to www.youtube.com] If you watch on Gootube, other interesting related videos pop up as suggestions. Here's one of my favorites from the European Space Agency. As you can see, the magnetosphere is a very complex thing. The NICT sim is nice because it's "real-time", but it's a very simplified model. [link to www.youtube.com] Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 03/15/2012 08:11 PM "There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life." Frank Zappa "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein |
| El Quisqueyano User ID: 12576855 United States03/15/2012 08:59 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The simulation posted earlier was from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. I'm not sure where this one is from, but you can see the ring current forming on the night-side of Earth in the lower right-hand box. Quoting: Hugh M Eye [link to www.youtube.com] If you watch on Gootube, other interesting related videos pop up as suggestions. Here's one of my favorites from the European Space Agency. As you can see, the magnetosphere is a very complex thing. The NICT sim is nice because it's "real-time", but it's a very simplified model. [link to www.youtube.com] Oh ok, so the Finnish Meteorological Institute simulation is not a real time simulation. It is one they put together using the data from ACE? Oh, and by the way, NICT is still down. Last Edited by El Quisqueyano on 03/15/2012 09:00 PM [link to skreened.com] The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who in the name of charity and good will shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers! And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee!" Ezekiel 25:17 "Worst come to worst, my peoples come FIRST" Dilated Peoples |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 4526619 United States03/15/2012 09:14 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
