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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
shadasonic

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03/15/2012 02:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.n3kl.org] Why this is happening? [link to www.n3kl.org]
 Quoting: Luisport


Everything is dropping out at once
 Quoting: shadasonic


Why?
 Quoting: Luisport


I know its not the case but it looks like a polarity reversal
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Luisport

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03/15/2012 02:17 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
K7- and a G3 storm now... [link to www.theusner.eu]

Last Edited by Luisport on 03/15/2012 02:18 PM
shadasonic

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03/15/2012 02:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Luisport


interesting to see if we don't get a Kp 8 or 9 out of CME,coronal hole combo. The coronal hole has me anxious, if the polarity is right we can have a steady hum dinger of a storm
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Luisport

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03/15/2012 02:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Luisport


interesting to see if we don't get a Kp 8 or 9 out of CME,coronal hole combo. The coronal hole has me anxious, if the polarity is right we can have a steady hum dinger of a storm
 Quoting: shadasonic


What is the right polarity for a biger storm?
tomasgod1

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03/15/2012 02:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We are now at G2 storm status.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 283
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 15 1724 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 15 1724 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washinton state.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

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Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 02:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is the magnetosphere sim from nict gone from the site menus ?


[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 02:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sorry , new link

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
tomasgod1

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03/15/2012 02:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
BznT swinging back and forth at the moment.

Current ACE Data:

2012 03 15

@ 18:31 UT

BynT 12.8

BznT 1.9

Density p/cc 1.3

Bulk Speed km/s 740.2

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by tomasgod1 on 03/15/2012 02:44 PM
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Luisport

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03/15/2012 02:45 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
K7- and a G3 storm now... [link to www.theusner.eu]
 Quoting: Luisport


K7 now...
tomasgod1

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03/15/2012 02:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The two CME models are completely different! In fact the forecast time of arrival differs by 24 hours! I guess each government agency uses its own special mathematics. No wonder we're 20 trillion dollars over budget, LOL.

NASA-arrival of CME @06:00 on 3/15

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

NOAA-arrival time @08:00 on 3/16

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


farside
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


NOAA didn't even have an A-index watch up for today. They are so pathetic. Let me do the honors!



[link to www.youtube.com]
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 03:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The two CME models are completely different! In fact the forecast time of arrival differs by 24 hours! I guess each government agency uses its own special mathematics. No wonder we're 20 trillion dollars over budget, LOL.

NASA-arrival of CME @06:00 on 3/15

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

NOAA-arrival time @08:00 on 3/16

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


:farside:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


NOAA didn't even have an A-index watch up for today. They are so pathetic. Let me do the honors!



[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Love those chimps !!! flower
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 03:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The two CME models are completely different! In fact the forecast time of arrival differs by 24 hours! I guess each government agency uses its own special mathematics. No wonder we're 20 trillion dollars over budget, LOL.

NASA-arrival of CME @06:00 on 3/15

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

NOAA-arrival time @08:00 on 3/16

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


:farside:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


NOAA didn't even have an A-index watch up for today. They are so pathetic. Let me do the honors!



[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


and the cme coming out the other side from that comet, not related according to the banana crew.. they have been consistently bad at predictions this last week, it's nice to have some consistency at least:)

nice mysolaralerts page btw..

oe..
FraudulentZodiac

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03/15/2012 04:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.youtube.com]

*Wont let me imbed that video for some reason. I know how, just wont let me. hmmmm.....
 Quoting: FraudulentZodiac


Don't use the "embeded" version of the url.


 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12031867


Still no answers to where this magnetic wind is coming from....

Last Edited by FraudulentZodiac on 03/15/2012 04:36 PM
"All energy flows according to the whims of the Great Magnet" - Hunter S. Thompson

"None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free." - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

We are all just ins inside the out, and outs inside the ins.
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 04:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1433 seems to have polarity like 1429, white side leading..
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 04:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Are you asking how to imbed a you tube here ? If so, take a look when you reply to this. See the You tube button above ??/ press it, then no spaces, copy and paste the link, then no spaces, hit the you tube button again and you are good hf
FraudulentZodiac

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03/15/2012 04:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Are you asking how to imbed a you tube here ? If so, take a look when you reply to this. See the You tube button above ??/ press it, then no spaces, copy and paste the link, then no spaces, hit the you tube button again and you are good hf
 Quoting: TS66


Are you replying to me? Because I absolutely know how already.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the Great Magnet" - Hunter S. Thompson

"None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free." - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

We are all just ins inside the out, and outs inside the ins.
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 04:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Are you asking how to imbed a you tube here ? If so, take a look when you reply to this. See the You tube button above ??/ press it, then no spaces, copy and paste the link, then no spaces, hit the you tube button again and you are good hf
 Quoting: TS66


or... paste youtube url into your reply then highlight it and click the youtube button just once.

you do have to make sure that you copy the url that does not have the word imbed in it already when copying from another site. I'm not a techy so I'm not very good at explaining this.
Hugh M Eye

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03/15/2012 05:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1433 seems to have polarity like 1429, white side leading..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 4526619


Yeah, I was looking at that yesterday. I'm sure NINzrez will update us on that region, i'm no expert on sunspot polarity. If I find time, I'll do more research on this. Thanks for posting.
EW
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03/15/2012 05:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another quick question if you dont mind, I have found a list of flares & spe's from the 50's,60's however Im not sure how to determine the direction, Im assuming back then we were only detecting earth directed ones right since we had no satelites in orbit to watch the sun like we do now?..

here is the link and directions to the page if anyone can teach me how to figure it out...

[link to www.ngdc.noaa.gov]

Then click on FTP access tab in the menu bar

Then choose solar data, then choose solar flares, then choose flares index, then choose mcmath, then choose CF115 80 TXT..

if you can show me how i can figure out if these were earth directed i would appreciate it .. mwahs!
 Quoting: EW 12458942


Just wondering if anyone had looked at this and could tell me how to figure out the direction of the flares listed..

mwahs

Enchanted
hf
Palm
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03/15/2012 06:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Maybe I am pasting something the everyone knows? let me know so I stop

[link to www.n3kl.org]
El Quisqueyano

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03/15/2012 06:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Do you know where the link is for that simulation of our Magnetosphere?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


It is here: [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

You have to select the Magnetoshere tab, then arrow over to the Magnetopause simulation. I have tried to run it for those dates 3 times today and my Firefox has crashed every time.
 Quoting: FraudulentZodiac


Hey Thanks. Not quite the same simulation though.
El Quisqueyano

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03/15/2012 06:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Luisport


I know the Youtube link. What I mean is what site is that Youtube clip getting that simulation from?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Sorry i don't know...
 Quoting: Luisport


hf
FraudulentZodiac

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03/15/2012 06:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Do you know where the link is for that simulation of our Magnetosphere?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


It is here: [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

You have to select the Magnetoshere tab, then arrow over to the Magnetopause simulation. I have tried to run it for those dates 3 times today and my Firefox has crashed every time.
 Quoting: FraudulentZodiac


Hey Thanks. Not quite the same simulation though.
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Actually it is. They give the link in the desc. of that video I posted. After you click the Magnetosphere tab you must use the arrows at the bottom to view the "Magnetopause Position Movie", it is on the 3rd page.

Last Edited by FraudulentZodiac on 03/15/2012 06:31 PM
"All energy flows according to the whims of the Great Magnet" - Hunter S. Thompson

"None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free." - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

We are all just ins inside the out, and outs inside the ins.
El Quisqueyano

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03/15/2012 06:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
thx hugh, great info and posting as usual.. you are one of the good ones:) I'm using it elsewhere if you don't mind..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 4526619


 Quoting: Luisport


I know the Youtube link. What I mean is what site is that Youtube clip getting that simulation from?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Sorry i don't know...
 Quoting: Luisport


I don't know who uploaded YT vid, may be from a NASA press conference or news release. Here's a similar model from NASA:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

NASA super-computer modeling homepage (you may need special data and/or software, computing power, bandwidth, etc. Some of these models will crash your browser if you lack the needed RAM):

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

The best tool I've found for understanding the behavior of SW particles and the magnetosphere is NASA's MAGNETO-MINI-GOLF (I'm not joking):

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Feel free to spread any knowledge you find here. Everything I've researched in this field was due to learning from this thread and using inter-web searches to dig a little deeper. Knowledge can be fun!
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Wow kewl, scored poorly though +8/ But it was fun and I learned fromt it.

Namaste.
El Quisqueyano

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03/15/2012 07:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12031867


bumpbump

Why was the direction of the magnetic pressure flipped??? If you go back to look at the NICT it is blank for that time.

wtf
 Quoting: FraudulentZodiac


hugh, ninz, tgod, anybody want to tackle this question for us?

oe..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 4526619


I believe what we were seeing the other day was a magnetic substorm and the result of Birkeland Currents streaming from a reconnection in the magnetotail. Here is a diagram showing the complexity of the electro-magnetic interactions caused by strong geomagnetic events.
[link to en.wikipedia.org]

In this video we can see a reversal of the current flow towards the night side.

[link to www.youtube.com]

These substorms and current flows in the magnetotail are still under much investigation and are not entirely understood. This why they've been launching rockets into aurora and launching many missions to study these phenomena (Cluster, THEMIS, and Geotail missins come to mind).

"Auroral arcs generally extend in the east-west direction, and Birkeland believed that substorm currents flowed horizontally along them, connecting to space at the ends of the arcs. Satellites have confirmed that electric currents indeed enter the atmosphere from far-away space, flow horizontally for some distance and then head out again; and although their actual structure differs greatly from Birkeland's model, they are now known as Birkeland currents.
They represent a new and altogether different type of electric current in space. Other currents described so far--the ring current, the current on the magnetopause which confines the Earth's field, and the plasma sheet current which flows across the tail--all are "coasting currents" and (in principle) consume no energy. As long as a plasma is present in a suitable magnetic field, the spiraling and drifting motions of its ions and electrons automatically produce the electric current flow.

Electric currents which flow in and out of the ionosphere are more like house currents, which need a voltage (a kind of electrical pressure) to drive them through wires and appliances, and which do transmit energy. Indeed, Birkeland currents might be one of the avenues by which the magnetosphere extracts energy from the solar wind."--

more on substorms and currents here: [link to www.phy6.org]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I have seen the Magnetopause Position Movie that is on the first video above.

The simulation I have never seen is for the second video on the bottom.

Does anyone have a link to that kind of simulation? That one seems more informative.
Hugh M Eye

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03/15/2012 07:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another quick question if you dont mind, I have found a list of flares & spe's from the 50's,60's however Im not sure how to determine the direction, Im assuming back then we were only detecting earth directed ones right since we had no satelites in orbit to watch the sun like we do now?..

here is the link and directions to the page if anyone can teach me how to figure it out...

[link to www.ngdc.noaa.gov]

Then click on FTP access tab in the menu bar

Then choose solar data, then choose solar flares, then choose flares index, then choose mcmath, then choose CF115 80 TXT..

if you can show me how i can figure out if these were earth directed i would appreciate it .. mwahs!
 Quoting: EW 12458942


Just wondering if anyone had looked at this and could tell me how to figure out the direction of the flares listed..

mwahs

Enchanted
hf
 Quoting: EW 12458942

Well they would all be on the Earth-facing side of the disk since they were observed from Earth. That's some really obscure data you dug up; they list a latitude and longitude for each flare, so I guess you could plot them on a chart. Flares and CMEs are two different things you understand. I'm just not clear what you want to know. Here's a much better flare list to use (but it doesn't go back to 1950's) and they do have an archive back to 2002.

[link to www.lmsal.com]
Hugh M Eye

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03/15/2012 08:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The simulation posted earlier was from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. I'm not sure where this one is from, but you can see the ring current forming on the night-side of Earth in the lower right-hand box.



[link to www.youtube.com]

If you watch on Gootube, other interesting related videos pop up as suggestions.
Here's one of my favorites from the European Space Agency. As you can see, the magnetosphere is a very complex thing. The NICT sim is nice because it's "real-time", but it's a very simplified model.



[link to www.youtube.com]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 03/15/2012 08:11 PM
El Quisqueyano

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03/15/2012 08:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The simulation posted earlier was from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. I'm not sure where this one is from, but you can see the ring current forming on the night-side of Earth in the lower right-hand box.



[link to www.youtube.com]

If you watch on Gootube, other interesting related videos pop up as suggestions.
Here's one of my favorites from the European Space Agency. As you can see, the magnetosphere is a very complex thing. The NICT sim is nice because it's "real-time", but it's a very simplified model.



[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Oh ok, so the Finnish Meteorological Institute simulation is not a real time simulation. It is one they put together using the data from ACE?

Oh, and by the way, NICT is still down.

Last Edited by El Quisqueyano on 03/15/2012 09:00 PM
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 09:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1433 seems to have polarity like 1429, white side leading..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 4526619


Yeah, I was looking at that yesterday. I'm sure NINzrez will update us on that region, i'm no expert on sunspot polarity. If I find time, I'll do more research on this. Thanks for posting.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2012 09:15 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Anyone look at the latest SOHO images? [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

The sun is getting fucked up right now. Where the comet impacted its growing bigger and bigger. it will be interesting to see what happens over the next few days

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