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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Luisport

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03/16/2012 01:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
c flare now? [link to www.n3kl.org]
Luisport

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03/16/2012 01:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
c flare now? [link to www.n3kl.org]
 Quoting: Luisport


Yes and going up...
alexisj9

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03/16/2012 01:52 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
peaked at C1.8 for now.
shadasonic

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03/16/2012 02:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I think ace satellite is down for the count! There, usually every time I predict something it proves me wrong, so Nict should be up shortly
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
psyoptics

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03/16/2012 02:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i have been researching into substorms and all the images and data i have found do not show a complete flip like we have been seeing.
now first is the flip a simulation glich or does it really flip.
here is the best animation of a substorm i have seen and follows how i would thought this would look.
[link to www.nasa.gov]

after going over my notes on substorms and still not find any info to help me tie this to the complete flip you guys had shown me i searched the net again.
i found this.
[link to www.nasa.gov]
once again the data is coming from the THEMIS project.

the one thing i keep finding is these substorm can be very strong and harbor energies to damage things like powergrids on earth during the reconnection.

Last Edited by psyoptics on 03/16/2012 02:42 PM
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
psyoptics

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03/16/2012 02:39 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I think ace satellite is down for the count! There, usually every time I predict something it proves me wrong, so Nict should be up shortly
 Quoting: shadasonic


[link to swepam.lanl.gov]
launched Aug 25, 1997 10:39 am EST
mission lifetime 2 to 5 years.
well if we lost it....it ran10 years longer then they ever thought.

let us hope not!



Spacecraft Characteristics

Mass: 785 kg (includes 189 kg fuel)
Structure: Two octagonal decks, 1.6 m across, 1.0 m high
Propulsion: Hydazine, for insertion and maintenance in orbit
Power: 443 W, four fixed solar arrays
Attitude Subsystem: Spinning spacecraft; spin axis; Earth/Sun pointing
Communications: S-band, 7 kbps (real time), 1 Gbit (total) solid state recorders


Mission Characteristics

Launch: August 1997
Launch Vehicle: Delta II
Primary Mission: Observe energetic particles within the solar system
Mission Lifetime: 2 years/5-year goal

a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 6592383
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03/16/2012 03:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A note regarding the modeling software used to interpret ACE data.

NICT uses MHD code...

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

"About Real-Time Magnetosphere Simulation

The real-time magnetosphere simulation is carried out using the MHD code developed by Prof. Tanaka. Input parameters are taken from the real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field data observed routinely by the ACE satellite. Simulation results are visualized in real time. Note all of the plots here are based on the preliminary data (ACE Real Time Data), which have not been processed yet."



The NASA/ISWA magnetopause simulation...

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

...uses the SWMF/BATSRUS magnetosphere real time simulation.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Description here... [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]



Recent research (J. Egedal1, W. Daughton, A. Le) suggests that the MHD code used in NICT is inaccurate in the type of situation shown by the inverted magnetosphere of ISWA (they do not mention NICT but a commentor in another article linked below does). Since the research detailed in the following links was just recently released, I'm assuming that the model used in that research is not the same as is currently used by NASA/ISWA.

So here are at least three different models being used to interpret data. I'm guessing there are more. All will show different results from the same data. What we observe when we look at these simulations are NOT the actual events. They are intepretations of data subject to the inaccuracies of their various models. And the data itself is limited... so few satellites, so much space.

Links...

[link to web.mit.edu]

In addition to showing that different models produce different results this also suggests a plausable explanation for dark side of the earth events being caused by earth/sun interaction vs. cosmic origins as others have already suggested on this thread (reconnection, sub-storms, currents, etc.) (Though I'm not saying that cosmic events can't or won't affect us.)


[link to saposjoint.net] (down from the top a bit... "Mysterious electron acceleration explained")

This comment: "The reason for this discrepancy was the other work was done with the wrong model - the MHD" ...points to the pitfalls inherent in modeling.


[link to www.nature.com]

More technical... buy it ($18) and tell us what it says.


I believe what was seen in the inverted magnetosphere simulation was an inability of the modeling software to handle the data correctly. Yes there were elevated readings in the ACE data but to assume the magnetosphere actually inverted, is placing an unrealistic amount of belief in models subject to being incomplete in their methodolgy.

Kind of of like believing e=mc squared explains everything.

--
Luisport

User ID: 12626796
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03/16/2012 03:50 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
K5+ and G1 storm... [link to www.theusner.eu]
psyoptics

User ID: 11578017
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03/16/2012 05:11 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A note regarding the modeling software used to interpret ACE data.


 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6592383


so this might just be a simulation glich. will we ever know the truth here?
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 12629228
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03/16/2012 05:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A large filament eruption near the NW limb. Two giant chunks of the big filament we've been watching. SDO is not up-to-date today, but filament lift-off and CME can be seen on the Big Bear Obs. movie:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

latest SDO image shows material just beginning to erupt:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

May not be earth-directed, however the possibility cannot be ruled out until we get SOHO, SDO, and STEREO all updated. Similar eruptions have been geo-effective in the past, it all depends on the size and direction of CME. Stay tuned.
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 12629228
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03/16/2012 06:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A note regarding the modeling software used to interpret ACE data.

NICT uses MHD code...

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

"About Real-Time Magnetosphere Simulation

The real-time magnetosphere simulation is carried out using the MHD code developed by Prof. Tanaka. Input parameters are taken from the real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field data observed routinely by the ACE satellite. Simulation results are visualized in real time. Note all of the plots here are based on the preliminary data (ACE Real Time Data), which have not been processed yet."



The NASA/ISWA magnetopause simulation...

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

...uses the SWMF/BATSRUS magnetosphere real time simulation.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Description here... [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]



Recent research (J. Egedal1, W. Daughton, A. Le) suggests that the MHD code used in NICT is inaccurate in the type of situation shown by the inverted magnetosphere of ISWA (they do not mention NICT but a commentor in another article linked below does). Since the research detailed in the following links was just recently released, I'm assuming that the model used in that research is not the same as is currently used by NASA/ISWA.

So here are at least three different models being used to interpret data. I'm guessing there are more. All will show different results from the same data. What we observe when we look at these simulations are NOT the actual events. They are intepretations of data subject to the inaccuracies of their various models. And the data itself is limited... so few satellites, so much space.

Links...

[link to web.mit.edu]

In addition to showing that different models produce different results this also suggests a plausable explanation for dark side of the earth events being caused by earth/sun interaction vs. cosmic origins as others have already suggested on this thread (reconnection, sub-storms, currents, etc.) (Though I'm not saying that cosmic events can't or won't affect us.)


[link to saposjoint.net] (down from the top a bit... "Mysterious electron acceleration explained")

This comment: "The reason for this discrepancy was the other work was done with the wrong model - the MHD" ...points to the pitfalls inherent in modeling.


[link to www.nature.com]

More technical... buy it ($18) and tell us what it says.


I believe what was seen in the inverted magnetosphere simulation was an inability of the modeling software to handle the data correctly. Yes there were elevated readings in the ACE data but to assume the magnetosphere actually inverted, is placing an unrealistic amount of belief in models subject to being incomplete in their methodolgy.

Kind of of like believing e=mc squared explains everything.

--
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6592383

Kudos...nice post, AC. Thanks for the research on this. The link showing the 9 different modules involved in these models gives us a clue as their complexity. Many of these modules have feedback loops to the other modules. I'm still not exactly clear as what the colors are representing (J=formula)....is this energy measured in Joules?

"One joule in everyday life is approximately:
the energy required to lift a small apple one metre straight up. (A mass of about 102 g = 1⁄9.81 kg)
the energy released when that same apple falls one metre to the ground.
the energy released as heat by a person at rest, every 1/60th of a second.[5]
the kinetic energy of a 50 kg human moving very slowly (0.2 m/s).
the kinetic energy of a tennis ball moving at 23 km/h (14 mph)"

[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

I don't believe folks saw what they "think" they saw. The bow-shock didn't flip (but it did look very bent-up or cracked on the dayside). I think the model was displaying the rise in energies from the magnetotail/current sheet zapping against the nightside (this is normal for a strong CME storm). The jagged appearance and flopping-around of the magnetopause on the bow-shock side is what concerns me.

remember the "Giant Breach" and "Cracks Found"?

[link to science.nasa.gov]

[link to science.nasa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 12629228
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03/16/2012 06:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A large filament eruption near the NW limb. Two giant chunks of the big filament we've been watching. SDO is not up-to-date today, but filament lift-off and CME can be seen on the Big Bear Obs. movie:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

latest SDO image shows material just beginning to erupt:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

May not be earth-directed, however the possibility cannot be ruled out until we get SOHO, SDO, and STEREO all updated. Similar eruptions have been geo-effective in the past, it all depends on the size and direction of CME. Stay tuned.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Only 2 SDO images in over 3 hours-WTF? SOHO 7 hours behind (unfortunately normal). There was apparently a Hyder flare (or 2-ribbon flare) along with the filament eruption to the north of the large coronal hole.

SDO composite:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

304angstom:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

User ID: 12571782
United States
03/16/2012 06:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A note regarding the modeling software used to interpret ACE data.

NICT uses MHD code...

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

"About Real-Time Magnetosphere Simulation

The real-time magnetosphere simulation is carried out using the MHD code developed by Prof. Tanaka. Input parameters are taken from the real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field data observed routinely by the ACE satellite. Simulation results are visualized in real time. Note all of the plots here are based on the preliminary data (ACE Real Time Data), which have not been processed yet."



The NASA/ISWA magnetopause simulation...

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

...uses the SWMF/BATSRUS magnetosphere real time simulation.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Description here... [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]



Recent research (J. Egedal1, W. Daughton, A. Le) suggests that the MHD code used in NICT is inaccurate in the type of situation shown by the inverted magnetosphere of ISWA (they do not mention NICT but a commentor in another article linked below does). Since the research detailed in the following links was just recently released, I'm assuming that the model used in that research is not the same as is currently used by NASA/ISWA.

So here are at least three different models being used to interpret data. I'm guessing there are more. All will show different results from the same data. What we observe when we look at these simulations are NOT the actual events. They are intepretations of data subject to the inaccuracies of their various models. And the data itself is limited... so few satellites, so much space.

Links...

[link to web.mit.edu]

In addition to showing that different models produce different results this also suggests a plausable explanation for dark side of the earth events being caused by earth/sun interaction vs. cosmic origins as others have already suggested on this thread (reconnection, sub-storms, currents, etc.) (Though I'm not saying that cosmic events can't or won't affect us.)


[link to saposjoint.net] (down from the top a bit... "Mysterious electron acceleration explained")

This comment: "The reason for this discrepancy was the other work was done with the wrong model - the MHD" ...points to the pitfalls inherent in modeling.


[link to www.nature.com]

More technical... buy it ($18) and tell us what it says.


I believe what was seen in the inverted magnetosphere simulation was an inability of the modeling software to handle the data correctly. Yes there were elevated readings in the ACE data but to assume the magnetosphere actually inverted, is placing an unrealistic amount of belief in models subject to being incomplete in their methodolgy.

Kind of of like believing e=mc squared explains everything.

--
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6592383


wow...that post should be pinned all by itself...thanks AC
El Quisqueyano

User ID: 12576855
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03/16/2012 07:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A note regarding the modeling software used to interpret ACE data.

NICT uses MHD code...

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

"About Real-Time Magnetosphere Simulation

The real-time magnetosphere simulation is carried out using the MHD code developed by Prof. Tanaka. Input parameters are taken from the real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field data observed routinely by the ACE satellite. Simulation results are visualized in real time. Note all of the plots here are based on the preliminary data (ACE Real Time Data), which have not been processed yet."



The NASA/ISWA magnetopause simulation...

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

...uses the SWMF/BATSRUS magnetosphere real time simulation.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Description here... [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]



Recent research (J. Egedal1, W. Daughton, A. Le) suggests that the MHD code used in NICT is inaccurate in the type of situation shown by the inverted magnetosphere of ISWA (they do not mention NICT but a commentor in another article linked below does). Since the research detailed in the following links was just recently released, I'm assuming that the model used in that research is not the same as is currently used by NASA/ISWA.

So here are at least three different models being used to interpret data. I'm guessing there are more. All will show different results from the same data. What we observe when we look at these simulations are NOT the actual events. They are intepretations of data subject to the inaccuracies of their various models. And the data itself is limited... so few satellites, so much space.

Links...

[link to web.mit.edu]

In addition to showing that different models produce different results this also suggests a plausable explanation for dark side of the earth events being caused by earth/sun interaction vs. cosmic origins as others have already suggested on this thread (reconnection, sub-storms, currents, etc.) (Though I'm not saying that cosmic events can't or won't affect us.)


[link to saposjoint.net] (down from the top a bit... "Mysterious electron acceleration explained")

This comment: "The reason for this discrepancy was the other work was done with the wrong model - the MHD" ...points to the pitfalls inherent in modeling.


[link to www.nature.com]

More technical... buy it ($18) and tell us what it says.


I believe what was seen in the inverted magnetosphere simulation was an inability of the modeling software to handle the data correctly. Yes there were elevated readings in the ACE data but to assume the magnetosphere actually inverted, is placing an unrealistic amount of belief in models subject to being incomplete in their methodolgy.

Kind of of like believing e=mc squared explains everything.

--
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6592383


We had 2 GRB's on the 11th from the Ophiuchus Constellation. Is it possible, and I am just speculating here, That the blast shockwave from these 2 GRB's had that effect on our Magnetosphere? Earth was not hit, obviously, by the 2 jet streams that come out of the North and South from these GRB's, Had we gotten a direct hit by any of the jet streams then we would not be here. What I am wondering about is the Electromagnetic charged Gravitational Shockwave that gets disbursed at 360 degrees. If you check here;

[link to grb.sonoma.edu]

You can see the 2 GRB's are not that Far from our position in that solar system. According to where the blasts came from, Can some one here figure out if the effects on our Magnetosphere, the other day, could be linked to these 2 GRB's?
El Quisqueyano

User ID: 12576855
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03/16/2012 07:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A note regarding the modeling software used to interpret ACE data.

NICT uses MHD code...

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

"About Real-Time Magnetosphere Simulation

The real-time magnetosphere simulation is carried out using the MHD code developed by Prof. Tanaka. Input parameters are taken from the real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field data observed routinely by the ACE satellite. Simulation results are visualized in real time. Note all of the plots here are based on the preliminary data (ACE Real Time Data), which have not been processed yet."



The NASA/ISWA magnetopause simulation...

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

...uses the SWMF/BATSRUS magnetosphere real time simulation.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Description here... [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]



Recent research (J. Egedal1, W. Daughton, A. Le) suggests that the MHD code used in NICT is inaccurate in the type of situation shown by the inverted magnetosphere of ISWA (they do not mention NICT but a commentor in another article linked below does). Since the research detailed in the following links was just recently released, I'm assuming that the model used in that research is not the same as is currently used by NASA/ISWA.

So here are at least three different models being used to interpret data. I'm guessing there are more. All will show different results from the same data. What we observe when we look at these simulations are NOT the actual events. They are intepretations of data subject to the inaccuracies of their various models. And the data itself is limited... so few satellites, so much space.

Links...

[link to web.mit.edu]

In addition to showing that different models produce different results this also suggests a plausable explanation for dark side of the earth events being caused by earth/sun interaction vs. cosmic origins as others have already suggested on this thread (reconnection, sub-storms, currents, etc.) (Though I'm not saying that cosmic events can't or won't affect us.)


[link to saposjoint.net] (down from the top a bit... "Mysterious electron acceleration explained")

This comment: "The reason for this discrepancy was the other work was done with the wrong model - the MHD" ...points to the pitfalls inherent in modeling.


[link to www.nature.com]

More technical... buy it ($18) and tell us what it says.


I believe what was seen in the inverted magnetosphere simulation was an inability of the modeling software to handle the data correctly. Yes there were elevated readings in the ACE data but to assume the magnetosphere actually inverted, is placing an unrealistic amount of belief in models subject to being incomplete in their methodolgy.

Kind of of like believing e=mc squared explains everything.

--
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6592383


We had 2 GRB's on the 11th from the Ophiuchus Constellation. Is it possible, and I am just speculating here, That the blast shockwave from these 2 GRB's had that effect on our Magnetosphere? Earth was not hit, obviously, by the 2 jet streams that come out of the North and South from these GRB's, Had we gotten a direct hit by any of the jet streams then we would not be here. What I am wondering about is the Electromagnetic charged Gravitational Shockwave that gets disbursed at 360 degrees. If you check here;

[link to grb.sonoma.edu]

You can see the 2 GRB's are not that Far from our position in that solar system. According to where the blasts came from, Can some one here figure out if the effects on our Magnetosphere, the other day, could be linked to these 2 GRB's?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Like walking against the wind and the all of a sudden the wind comes from behind you and you get this push.
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 12629228
United States
03/16/2012 07:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A large filament eruption near the NW limb. Two giant chunks of the big filament we've been watching. SDO is not up-to-date today, but filament lift-off and CME can be seen on the Big Bear Obs. movie:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

latest SDO image shows material just beginning to erupt:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

May not be earth-directed, however the possibility cannot be ruled out until we get SOHO, SDO, and STEREO all updated. Similar eruptions have been geo-effective in the past, it all depends on the size and direction of CME. Stay tuned.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Only 2 SDO images in over 3 hours-WTF? SOHO 7 hours behind (unfortunately normal). There was apparently a Hyder flare (or 2-ribbon flare) along with the filament eruption to the north of the large coronal hole.

SDO composite:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

304angstom:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

There was indeed a large CME from the NW filament eruption. Images are now trickling in. Still can't say if it's geo-effective.

STEREO Ahead image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

SOHO C3:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

SOHO C2:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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03/16/2012 07:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
EL Q, I have a gift for you.
First, let me state that gamma rays, like x-rays and galactic cosmic rays, do not affect the magnetosphere at all. They pass right through it. When we see an X-flare from the sun, the x-rays (along w/gamma rays) are here at light-speed (minutes) and we don't see any magnetospheric disturbance until days later and only if a CME (mass particles) also hits us. Also, when solar activity is at a high level (like recently), the amount of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth is greatly decreased as the solar wind overpowers them. It is known as the Forbush decrease.
[link to wattsupwiththat.com]
More here:
[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]

And now for you gift....scientists have created a sound translation of the 2011 Honshu earthquake and it's pretty awesome.
EQ sounds:
[link to geophysics.eas.gatech.edu]

Accompanying article:
[link to news.sciencemag.org]
Hugh M Eye

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03/16/2012 08:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NOAA alert extended for 24 more hours.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1897
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 16 2331 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1896
Valid From: 2012 Mar 15 1300 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 18 0100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Electron Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 03/16/2012 08:09 PM
El Quisqueyano

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03/16/2012 08:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
EL Q, I have a gift for you.
First, let me state that gamma rays, like x-rays and galactic cosmic rays, do not affect the magnetosphere at all. They pass right through it. When we see an X-flare from the sun, the x-rays (along w/gamma rays) are here at light-speed (minutes) and we don't see any magnetospheric disturbance until days later and only if a CME (mass particles) also hits us. Also, when solar activity is at a high level (like recently), the amount of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth is greatly decreased as the solar wind overpowers them. It is known as the Forbush decrease.
[link to wattsupwiththat.com]
More here:
[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]

And now for you gift....scientists have created a sound translation of the 2011 Honshu earthquake and it's pretty awesome.
EQ sounds:
[link to geophysics.eas.gatech.edu]

Accompanying article:
[link to news.sciencemag.org]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Wow, thank you Hugh. I have been surfing the internet for ever trying to find something like this.

Notice the Hz in frequency that these quakes show up on. Well the precursor signals come from the same range. If I only had a converter for my spectrum lab program so it converts the incoming signals into sound similar to that presentation.
Hugh M Eye

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03/16/2012 08:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
EL Q, I have a gift for you.
First, let me state that gamma rays, like x-rays and galactic cosmic rays, do not affect the magnetosphere at all. They pass right through it. When we see an X-flare from the sun, the x-rays (along w/gamma rays) are here at light-speed (minutes) and we don't see any magnetospheric disturbance until days later and only if a CME (mass particles) also hits us. Also, when solar activity is at a high level (like recently), the amount of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth is greatly decreased as the solar wind overpowers them. It is known as the Forbush decrease.
[link to wattsupwiththat.com]
More here:
[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]

And now for you gift....scientists have created a sound translation of the 2011 Honshu earthquake and it's pretty awesome.
EQ sounds:
[link to geophysics.eas.gatech.edu]

Accompanying article:
[link to news.sciencemag.org]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Wow, thank you Hugh. I have been surfing the internet for ever trying to find something like this.

Notice the Hz in frequency that these quakes show up on. Well the precursor signals come from the same range. If I only had a converter for my spectrum lab program so it converts the incoming signals into sound similar to that presentation.
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


I'm pretty sure that just came out. I think the trick was the frequency compression to make the sounds audible. I thought of you as soon as i saw it, LOL.
Hugh M Eye

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03/16/2012 08:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The spectacular filament eruption does not appear to be Earth-directed. Another large piece of filament seems to erupting now, even further north. Latest movie from Mauna Loa Observatory:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

STEREO A:
:filamentC2A:

SOHO C3:
:filamentC3:
El Quisqueyano

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03/16/2012 09:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
EL Q, I have a gift for you.
First, let me state that gamma rays, like x-rays and galactic cosmic rays, do not affect the magnetosphere at all. They pass right through it. When we see an X-flare from the sun, the x-rays (along w/gamma rays) are here at light-speed (minutes) and we don't see any magnetospheric disturbance until days later and only if a CME (mass particles) also hits us. Also, when solar activity is at a high level (like recently), the amount of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth is greatly decreased as the solar wind overpowers them. It is known as the Forbush decrease.
[link to wattsupwiththat.com]
More here:
[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]

And now for you gift....scientists have created a sound translation of the 2011 Honshu earthquake and it's pretty awesome.
EQ sounds:
[link to geophysics.eas.gatech.edu]

Accompanying article:
[link to news.sciencemag.org]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Wow, thank you Hugh. I have been surfing the internet for ever trying to find something like this.

Notice the Hz in frequency that these quakes show up on. Well the precursor signals come from the same range. If I only had a converter for my spectrum lab program so it converts the incoming signals into sound similar to that presentation.
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


I'm pretty sure that just came out. I think the trick was the frequency compression to make the sounds audible. I thought of you as soon as i saw it, LOL.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


That is what spectrum lab does. It compresses the signal and I get an image every 40 seconds compressed down to like 1 Hz width. I wish it had a sound converter too. Then I can hear the sounds and fine tune it to my specifications. Make it sound like that clip.
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2012 09:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey Nin, not sure if you saw this already. Patrick Geryl is predicting an X flare on March 19 followed by a larger X on March 21. I posted a thread at Thread: Possible X-FLARE on March 19 followed by larger X-FLARE on March 21! And no, this isn't from Frankie MacDonald. Will be interesting to see if he's on to something.

Have a great weekend!

nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 12416495
Australia
03/16/2012 10:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey Nin, not sure if you saw this already. Patrick Geryl is predicting an X flare on March 19 followed by a larger X on March 21. I posted a thread at Thread: Possible X-FLARE on March 19 followed by larger X-FLARE on March 21! And no, this isn't from Frankie MacDonald. Will be interesting to see if he's on to something.

Have a great weekend!


 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11630077


Patrick Geryl is a tool...
Have a great weekend!
Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Hugh M Eye

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03/17/2012 01:48 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Although i'm still not certain what we're looking at, I may have been hasty in poo-pooing the apparent magnetosphere reversal during the March 12th CME storm. If you look at the"normal" model here we see the solar winds pass the Earth in a pretty uniform direction. I took a recent snapshot to represent normal conditions.
:windnormal:

I went and found a snapshot from 3/12 (picking a random timeframe during the peak of the magnetic storm between 18:00 and 23:00 UTC) which shows the arrows going towards the sun instead of away from it.
wind2015

Here is a "normal" magnetosphere sim from today:
:magnormal:

Compare to a magnetosphere model from the same "storm" time as above:
mag2015

I confess my experience with these models is nil, so I have no idea if these are unusual or typical of a high-energy CME impact. I did notice that the BATS-R-US is created at the University of Michigan, so maybe NINzrez can look up someone involved at Michigan to give us more insight. Images from these models are only available for two weeks online, so if you want to explore the data from 3/12 don't wait too long. Go to this page and scroll down where it says "choose image" and then click on "show new images" and it will display the archived image from the time you choose. Sorry, but there's no way to link to each image (it took a lot of work just to post these samples).

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thanks to the AC who posted this criteria behind the models:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Vesper33
Silver Pools of Light

User ID: 5245441
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03/17/2012 02:34 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Although i'm still not certain what we're looking at, I may have been hasty in poo-pooing the apparent magnetosphere reversal during the March 12th CME storm. If you look at the"normal" model here we see the solar winds pass the Earth in a pretty uniform direction. I took a recent snapshot to represent normal conditions.
:windnormal:

I went and found a snapshot from 3/12 (picking a random timeframe during the peak of the magnetic storm between 18:00 and 23:00 UTC) which shows the arrows going towards the sun instead of away from it.
wind2015

Here is a "normal" magnetosphere sim from today:
:magnormal:

Compare to a magnetosphere model from the same "storm" time as above:
mag2015

I confess my experience with these models is nil, so I have no idea if these are unusual or typical of a high-energy CME impact. I did notice that the BATS-R-US is created at the University of Michigan, so maybe NINzrez can look up someone involved at Michigan to give us more insight. Images from these models are only available for two weeks online, so if you want to explore the data from 3/12 don't wait too long. Go to this page and scroll down where it says "choose image" and then click on "show new images" and it will display the archived image from the time you choose. Sorry, but there's no way to link to each image (it took a lot of work just to post these samples).

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thanks to the AC who posted this criteria behind the models:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Well, I'll be damned; my interest is highly peak on this. Thank you so much for the graphs and info on where you got them. I hope this is normal, but not so sure it is.

BTW, a friend of the family who is a nurse at UAB, which is a large hospital in Birmingham, Alabama, called tonight to inform me that they were warned to be prepared for long term rolling blackouts and other issues due to emissions from the sun. She never discussed these issues with me or any of my family members in the past, but she knew from my son that I was a solar watcher. She was upset about the situation and taking it seriously.
Perfer et Obdura;Dolor hic tibi proderit olim.Fortes Fortuna Iuvat! (Be Patient & Strong; someday this pain will be useful to you. Fortune favors the brave)
Anonymous Coward
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03/17/2012 02:39 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Although i'm still not certain what we're looking at, I may have been hasty in poo-pooing the apparent magnetosphere reversal during the March 12th CME storm. If you look at the"normal" model here we see the solar winds pass the Earth in a pretty uniform direction. I took a recent snapshot to represent normal conditions.
:windnormal:

I went and found a snapshot from 3/12 (picking a random timeframe during the peak of the magnetic storm between 18:00 and 23:00 UTC) which shows the arrows going towards the sun instead of away from it.
:wind2015:

Here is a "normal" magnetosphere sim from today:
:magnormal:

Compare to a magnetosphere model from the same "storm" time as above:
:mag2015:

I confess my experience with these models is nil, so I have no idea if these are unusual or typical of a high-energy CME impact. I did notice that the BATS-R-US is created at the University of Michigan, so maybe NINzrez can look up someone involved at Michigan to give us more insight. Images from these models are only available for two weeks online, so if you want to explore the data from 3/12 don't wait too long. Go to this page and scroll down where it says "choose image" and then click on "show new images" and it will display the archived image from the time you choose. Sorry, but there's no way to link to each image (it took a lot of work just to post these samples).

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thanks to the AC who posted this criteria behind the models:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Well, I'll be damned; my interest is highly peak on this. Thank you so much for the graphs and info on where you got them. I hope this is normal, but not so sure it is.

BTW, a friend of the family who is a nurse at UAB, which is a large hospital in Birmingham, Alabama, called tonight to inform me that they were warned to be prepared for long term rolling blackouts and other issues due to emissions from the sun. She never discussed these issues with me or any of my family members in the past, but she knew from my son that I was a solar watcher. She was upset about the situation and taking it seriously.
 Quoting: Vesper33


Its good to be open and prepare people .
Isis7
Voice Chat Moderator

User ID: 9074519
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03/17/2012 03:33 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Although i'm still not certain what we're looking at, I may have been hasty in poo-pooing the apparent magnetosphere reversal during the March 12th CME storm. If you look at the"normal" model here we see the solar winds pass the Earth in a pretty uniform direction. I took a recent snapshot to represent normal conditions.
:windnormal:

I went and found a snapshot from 3/12 (picking a random timeframe during the peak of the magnetic storm between 18:00 and 23:00 UTC) which shows the arrows going towards the sun instead of away from it.
wind2015

Here is a "normal" magnetosphere sim from today:
:magnormal:

Compare to a magnetosphere model from the same "storm" time as above:
mag2015

I confess my experience with these models is nil, so I have no idea if these are unusual or typical of a high-energy CME impact. I did notice that the BATS-R-US is created at the University of Michigan, so maybe NINzrez can look up someone involved at Michigan to give us more insight. Images from these models are only available for two weeks online, so if you want to explore the data from 3/12 don't wait too long. Go to this page and scroll down where it says "choose image" and then click on "show new images" and it will display the archived image from the time you choose. Sorry, but there's no way to link to each image (it took a lot of work just to post these samples).

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thanks to the AC who posted this criteria behind the models:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

Wasn't that a full moon night?

This information may have merit on this topic:

Moon and the Magnetotail

“Earth’s magnetotail extends well beyond the orbit of the moon and, once a month, the moon orbits through it,” says Tim Stubbs, a University of Maryland scientist working at the Goddard Space Flight Center. “This can have consequences ranging from lunar ‘dust storms’ to electrostatic discharges.”

<snip>

Anyone can tell when the moon is inside the magnetotail. Just look: “If the moon is full, it is inside the magnetotail,” says Stubbs. “The moon enters the magnetotail three days before it is full and takes about six days to cross and exit on the other side.”

<snip>

Earth’s magnetotail isn’t the only source of plasma to charge the moon. Solar wind can provide charged particles, too; indeed, most of the time, the solar wind is the primary source. But when the moon enters the magnetotail, the solar wind is pushed back and the plasma sheet takes over. The plasma sheet is about 10 times hotter than the solar wind and that gives it more "punch" when it comes to altering the charge balance of the moon's surface. Two million degree electrons in the plasma sheet race around like crazy and many of them hit the moon's surface. Solar wind electrons are relatively cool at only 140 thousand degrees, and fewer of them zip all the way down to the shadowed surface of the moon's nightside.
[link to www.nasa.gov]

This from El in Gabriel's thread:
Thread: F.O.G. (Page 329)

Magnetic lines of the Magnetosphere's tail coming into contact. They are positive and negatively charged. When they touch they explode and send that energy hurtling back onto the night side of the earth. Kind of like what happens when you join the positive and negative ends of high voltage electrical cables, you get an explosion.

From NASA;

IMAGE, launched March 25, 2000, also revealed some surprising activity during magnetic storms, which occur when the solar wind pummels the Earth's magnetosphere. The night-side region of the magnetosphere, which is stretched out by the solar wind, sometimes snaps back and shoots plasma violently toward Earth. The plasma becomes heated to several hundred million degrees and whirls around Earth in multi-million-amp currents. IMAGE discovered that such plasma occasionally is most dense on the Earth's day side, which was unexpected. Researchers are currently studying the phenomenon.

Earth's Invisible Magnetic Tail
[link to science.nasa.gov]
hf
Anonymous Coward
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03/17/2012 07:06 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Kudos back at ya Hugh. Thanks Look'n. Love this thread. A hearty thanks also to those at mysolaralerts and to all of the other posters here making this thread extremely informative.


Hugh, the 4th image you posted, the one with the broken lines, is proof positive that at least part of the BATSRUS model could not handle the data correctly. It might just be the graphical end (how to draw the lines connecting data values) but those lines most surely do not accurately represent numerical values.

Contour lines (imaginary lines connecting equal values) do not break. Nor do they end (except when leaving the frame of the graphic). Take for example the contour lines on a topographic map, a two dimensional representation of a three dimensional space... elevated and depressed areas are represented by closed loops, rule of v's (the v points uphill or to higher values), contour lines can never cross, etc.

Which is sort of nitpicking I guess. The shaded blue areas do seem to indicate a reversal of "normal" values. Perhaps "typical" would be a better word, because how unusual is it for flow to be towards the dark side of the earth? And what are the repercussions of same? I'm guessing it's not that uncommon and that the negative impacts on humanity are nil. I can't see that a reversal would be inherently dangerous. The red contour lines would seem to indicate an appropriate response... the larger, more bulbous loops are facing incoming in both the typical and reversed flow graphics.

I played a round of the golf game you linked to (full disclosure... played through 7, threw 9-iron into woods... hate golf) and if I remember correctly there was at least one "hole" that indicated reverse flow was normal. Isis7's link to the 2001 (long ago!) NASA article indicates the same.

I'd love to see some visual output of this event along the lines of the modeling in the study I linked to before using "...25,000 ...processors [working] for 11 days to follow the motions of 180 billion simulated particles...". Though if I had to choose between that, and a somewhat less than accurate representation in realtime, I'd choose the realtime.

--
nerdrage88sasr

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03/17/2012 09:03 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Although i'm still not certain what we're looking at, I may have been hasty in poo-pooing the apparent magnetosphere reversal during the March 12th CME storm. If you look at the"normal" model here we see the solar winds pass the Earth in a pretty uniform direction. I took a recent snapshot to represent normal conditions.
:windnormal:

I went and found a snapshot from 3/12 (picking a random timeframe during the peak of the magnetic storm between 18:00 and 23:00 UTC) which shows the arrows going towards the sun instead of away from it.
wind2015

Here is a "normal" magnetosphere sim from today:
:magnormal:

Compare to a magnetosphere model from the same "storm" time as above:
mag2015

I confess my experience with these models is nil, so I have no idea if these are unusual or typical of a high-energy CME impact. I did notice that the BATS-R-US is created at the University of Michigan, so maybe NINzrez can look up someone involved at Michigan to give us more insight. Images from these models are only available for two weeks online, so if you want to explore the data from 3/12 don't wait too long. Go to this page and scroll down where it says "choose image" and then click on "show new images" and it will display the archived image from the time you choose. Sorry, but there's no way to link to each image (it took a lot of work just to post these samples).

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thanks to the AC who posted this criteria behind the models:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


interesting indeed Hugh, good find!!

the 'wave anomoly' (as i call it) is back at Yellowstone.. Mary River chart...

[link to www.isthisthingon.org]

started late yesterday, and still running now...are we being with anything at the moment? Solar Wind is running at 678...maybe its a reflection of the Solar Wind effecting the EQ activity here?

but why only that area? may have to do a bit deeper research into Mary Lake and try and find a reason for this...its odd...

Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)

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