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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 12416495
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03/17/2012 09:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Although i'm still not certain what we're looking at, I may have been hasty in poo-pooing the apparent magnetosphere reversal during the March 12th CME storm. If you look at the"normal" model here we see the solar winds pass the Earth in a pretty uniform direction. I took a recent snapshot to represent normal conditions.
:windnormal:

I went and found a snapshot from 3/12 (picking a random timeframe during the peak of the magnetic storm between 18:00 and 23:00 UTC) which shows the arrows going towards the sun instead of away from it.
wind2015

Here is a "normal" magnetosphere sim from today:
:magnormal:

Compare to a magnetosphere model from the same "storm" time as above:
mag2015

I confess my experience with these models is nil, so I have no idea if these are unusual or typical of a high-energy CME impact. I did notice that the BATS-R-US is created at the University of Michigan, so maybe NINzrez can look up someone involved at Michigan to give us more insight. Images from these models are only available for two weeks online, so if you want to explore the data from 3/12 don't wait too long. Go to this page and scroll down where it says "choose image" and then click on "show new images" and it will display the archived image from the time you choose. Sorry, but there's no way to link to each image (it took a lot of work just to post these samples).

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thanks to the AC who posted this criteria behind the models:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


interesting indeed Hugh, good find!!

the 'wave anomoly' (as i call it) is back at Yellowstone.. Mary River chart...

[link to www.isthisthingon.org]

started late yesterday, and still running now...are we being with anything at the moment? Solar Wind is running at 678...maybe its a reflection of the Solar Wind effecting the EQ activity here?

but why only that area? may have to do a bit deeper research into Mary Lake and try and find a reason for this...its odd...

Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Anonymous astrophysicist
User ID: 1432885
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03/17/2012 10:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey Nin, not sure if you saw this already. Patrick Geryl is predicting an X flare on March 19 followed by a larger X on March 21. I posted a thread at Thread: Possible X-FLARE on March 19 followed by larger X-FLARE on March 21! And no, this isn't from Frankie MacDonald. Will be interesting to see if he's on to something.

Have a great weekend!


 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11630077


Patrick Geryl is a tool...
Have a great weekend!
Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


Patrick Geryl is a plagiarist and a fucking idiot. He tried to copy my method of predicting solar flares and has an accuracy rating about equal to what one would expect from random dart throwing. I no longer publish my own predictions for the simple reason I don't want to help ''them' prepare to shield their satellites, the majority of which are now used to make the planet into a prison without walls. Personally, i'd like to see them all fail ,life was much better before this alien technology was proliferated... I will continue to give real time reports of radiation danger on the surface of the planet on real time so people can protect themselves. As for posting to this thread, i see no point since we already have so many experts here.
cruise
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 12668421
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03/17/2012 12:53 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks to Isis7 for pointing out the Moon's effects on the magnetotail. I believe this was definitely a big factor. In fact I saw the moon that morning just before sunrise and I imagined seeing a dust-cloud around it....maybe it was real after all. Also the magnetotail's crurent sheets do reverse the flow of charged particles
towards Earth's night-side, this we've already considered. I think moon's position may have introduced some chaos into the modeling data. I completely forgot about the moon and it's not shown in any of the models I've seen.

Nevertheless, I'm still interested in the broken shape of the magnetopause and bow-shock on the sunny side. If the Bz had persisted in a south polarity, this could have been a tremendous geomagnetic storm. We got lucky this time.

Anyway, just for comparison, here is another storm snapshot from approx. 3 hours after the one I posted earlier.
:mag2300:
:wind2300:
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
El Quisqueyano

User ID: 12576855
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03/17/2012 04:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Although i'm still not certain what we're looking at, I may have been hasty in poo-pooing the apparent magnetosphere reversal during the March 12th CME storm. If you look at the"normal" model here we see the solar winds pass the Earth in a pretty uniform direction. I took a recent snapshot to represent normal conditions.
:windnormal:

I went and found a snapshot from 3/12 (picking a random timeframe during the peak of the magnetic storm between 18:00 and 23:00 UTC) which shows the arrows going towards the sun instead of away from it.
wind2015

Here is a "normal" magnetosphere sim from today:
:magnormal:

Compare to a magnetosphere model from the same "storm" time as above:
mag2015

I confess my experience with these models is nil, so I have no idea if these are unusual or typical of a high-energy CME impact. I did notice that the BATS-R-US is created at the University of Michigan, so maybe NINzrez can look up someone involved at Michigan to give us more insight. Images from these models are only available for two weeks online, so if you want to explore the data from 3/12 don't wait too long. Go to this page and scroll down where it says "choose image" and then click on "show new images" and it will display the archived image from the time you choose. Sorry, but there's no way to link to each image (it took a lot of work just to post these samples).

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thanks to the AC who posted this criteria behind the models:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


interesting indeed Hugh, good find!!

the 'wave anomoly' (as i call it) is back at Yellowstone.. Mary River chart...

[link to www.isthisthingon.org]

started late yesterday, and still running now...are we being with anything at the moment? Solar Wind is running at 678...maybe its a reflection of the Solar Wind effecting the EQ activity here?

but why only that area? may have to do a bit deeper research into Mary Lake and try and find a reason for this...its odd...

Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


Check the weather for that area, see if there are high winds. Sometimes high winds register on those seismogram.
[link to skreened.com]

The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who in the name of charity and good will shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers! And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee!" Ezekiel 25:17

"Worst come to worst, my PEOPLES come first" Dilated Peoples
PolarBear418

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03/17/2012 04:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
May be getting a small M here
PolarBear418

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03/17/2012 04:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
May be getting a small M here
 Quoting: PolarBear418


M 1.3 Flare 17th 20:39

Guess Its picking right back up for me, while I was away a couple days :)
shadasonic

User ID: 10309055
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03/17/2012 04:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Although i'm still not certain what we're looking at, I may have been hasty in poo-pooing the apparent magnetosphere reversal during the March 12th CME storm. If you look at the"normal" model here we see the solar winds pass the Earth in a pretty uniform direction. I took a recent snapshot to represent normal conditions.
:windnormal:

I went and found a snapshot from 3/12 (picking a random timeframe during the peak of the magnetic storm between 18:00 and 23:00 UTC) which shows the arrows going towards the sun instead of away from it.
wind2015

Here is a "normal" magnetosphere sim from today:
:magnormal:

Compare to a magnetosphere model from the same "storm" time as above:
mag2015

I confess my experience with these models is nil, so I have no idea if these are unusual or typical of a high-energy CME impact. I did notice that the BATS-R-US is created at the University of Michigan, so maybe NINzrez can look up someone involved at Michigan to give us more insight. Images from these models are only available for two weeks online, so if you want to explore the data from 3/12 don't wait too long. Go to this page and scroll down where it says "choose image" and then click on "show new images" and it will display the archived image from the time you choose. Sorry, but there's no way to link to each image (it took a lot of work just to post these samples).

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thanks to the AC who posted this criteria behind the models:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Great find hugh, alot to mull over!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
psyoptics

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03/17/2012 05:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
have we hit the wall on an explanation here?
wow i come to this thread for the smart ones. all is very quiet.
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
joinca

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03/17/2012 05:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
May be getting a small M here
 Quoting: PolarBear418


M 1.3 Flare 17th 20:39

Guess Its picking right back up for me, while I was away a couple days :)
 Quoting: PolarBear418


Space Weather Alerts and Warnings Timeline
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 783
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 17 2106 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 17 2038 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1140 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
EW
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03/17/2012 06:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
First, let me state that gamma rays, like x-rays and galactic cosmic rays, do not affect the magnetosphere at all. They pass right through it. When we see an X-flare from the sun, the x-rays (along w/gamma rays) are here at light-speed (minutes) and we don't see any magnetospheric disturbance until days later and only if a CME (mass particles) also hits us. Also, when solar activity is at a high level (like recently), the amount of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth is greatly decreased as the solar wind overpowers them. It is known as the Forbush decrease.
[link to wattsupwiththat.com]
More here:
[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]

 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hi hugh, kinda grabbed your post to EL and wish to ask a question if thats ok...

if the gamma rays, cosmic rays etc that come with a flare pass through the magnetosphere, at what point are they dangerous to us? What size flare gives off high enough levels of this radiation to be dangerous if at all? .. cheers
hf
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/17/2012 07:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
May be getting a small M here
 Quoting: PolarBear418


M 1.3 Flare 17th 20:39

Guess Its picking right back up for me, while I was away a couple days :)
 Quoting: PolarBear418


Space Weather Alerts and Warnings Timeline
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 783
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 17 2106 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 17 2038 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1140 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: joinca


M1.3 Flare on 3/17/2012 @ 20:39 UTC - Sunspot 1434

saw there was an M so thought i would come in here and see if everyone saw it
a bit unexpected
i will set aside some time tomorrow morning to sit and go through the pages i have missed
were having a St. pats celebration here tonight
everyone have a wonderful weekend and be safe :)
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Isis7
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03/17/2012 08:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
have we hit the wall on an explanation here?
wow i come to this thread for the smart ones. all is very quiet.
 Quoting: psyoptics

hi psyoptics

I think I should put all that information on a different thread. psyoptics, you wouldn't come to this thread if you didn't feel it's important information discussed by intelligent persons.

peace

Last Edited by Isis7 on 03/17/2012 09:10 PM
Isis7
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03/17/2012 08:19 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
May be getting a small M here
 Quoting: PolarBear418


M 1.3 Flare 17th 20:39

Guess Its picking right back up for me, while I was away a couple days :)
 Quoting: PolarBear418


Space Weather Alerts and Warnings Timeline
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 783
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 17 2106 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 17 2038 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1140 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: joinca


M1.3 Flare on 3/17/2012 @ 20:39 UTC - Sunspot 1434

saw there was an M so thought i would come in here and see if everyone saw it
a bit unexpected
i will set aside some time tomorrow morning to sit and go through the pages i have missed
were having a St. pats celebration here tonight
everyone have a wonderful weekend and be safe :)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks Nin, enjoy your St Pats celebration:)

hugs
whiteangel

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03/17/2012 10:06 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Okay, been looking and not finding it, but how lond as Nict been down??
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
old guard

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03/17/2012 10:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
have we hit the wall on an explanation here?
wow i come to this thread for the smart ones. all is very quiet.
 Quoting: psyoptics

hi psyoptics

I think I should put all that information on a different thread. psyoptics, you wouldn't come to this thread if you didn't feel it's important information discussed by intelligent persons.

peace
 Quoting: Isis7


We work hard here on this thread..but we all have a life. Stay tuned...
old guard

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03/17/2012 10:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Okay, been looking and not finding it, but how lond as Nict been down??
 Quoting: whiteangel


Days
whiteangel

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03/17/2012 10:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Okay, been looking and not finding it, but how lond as Nict been down??
 Quoting: whiteangel


Days
 Quoting: old guard


Was it damaged. Sorry I haven't been payig close attention last couple of days, fighting a bug.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
old guard

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03/17/2012 10:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Okay, been looking and not finding it, but how lond as Nict been down??
 Quoting: whiteangel


Days
 Quoting: old guard


Was it damaged. Sorry I haven't been payig close attention last couple of days, fighting a bug.
 Quoting: whiteangel


Me, too..
The nict has been down due to the satillite shuting down into "safe mode" because of the solar storms. That's the official story. I think they just don't want anyone to see right now.
Anonymous Coward
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03/17/2012 10:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]


[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
whiteangel

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03/17/2012 10:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Okay, been looking and not finding it, but how lond as Nict been down??
 Quoting: whiteangel


Days
 Quoting: old guard


Was it damaged. Sorry I haven't been payig close attention last couple of days, fighting a bug.
 Quoting: whiteangel


Me, too..
The nict has been down due to the satillite shuting down into "safe mode" because of the solar storms. That's the official story. I think they just don't want anyone to see right now.
 Quoting: old guard


Yeah, I hear you on that.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
Anonymous Coward
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03/17/2012 10:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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03/17/2012 10:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
these images are very late coming out
this happened earlier today didnt it?




whiteangel

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03/17/2012 10:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
these images are very late coming out
this happened earlier today didnt it?





 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12695355


Going by the date stamp, yes
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
old guard

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03/17/2012 11:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We are at:
K4

wind:638.7

BZ -1.0

[link to www.solarham.com]
old guard

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03/17/2012 11:04 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Everything is heating up
Anonymous Coward
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03/17/2012 11:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Happy Saint Patrick's Day All. Had a celebration here at the Finley's. Thanks again for all you do.hfhf
Isis7
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03/17/2012 11:38 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Everything is heating up
 Quoting: old guard


But there is no cool air in space

The magnetosphere protects our planet from solar wind and cosmic rays. It contains the Van Allen radiation belts, auroras, and giant electrical "ring currents" of staggering power.
[link to www.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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03/17/2012 11:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Anyone watching this?
Hugh M Eye

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03/18/2012 12:15 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Days
 Quoting: old guard


Was it damaged. Sorry I haven't been payig close attention last couple of days, fighting a bug.
 Quoting: whiteangel


Me, too..
The nict has been down due to the satillite shuting down into "safe mode" because of the solar storms. That's the official story. I think they just don't want anyone to see right now.
 Quoting: old guard


Yeah, I hear you on that.
 Quoting: whiteangel


I think GLP overloaded and fried all their servers, lol. :)
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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03/18/2012 12:23 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Anyone watching this?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1390089

Yes, a large far-side CME....most likely from our old friend 1429 or possibly a filament eruption. Not Earth-facing, but STEREO A may get blasted.
SOHO C2:
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
STEREO Behind:
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

NOAA has extended warning 24 MORE hours....AGAIN.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1898
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 17 2323 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1897
Valid From: 2012 Mar 15 1300 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 19 0100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Electron Flux:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE solar wind data shows a southward Bz and 600 km/s velocity--still from the coronal hole IMO.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 03/18/2012 12:25 AM
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein