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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
truz1980

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04/11/2012 11:34 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Question for all the sun people, my daugther brought home a school paper where the teacher gave them all the answers yet I'm confused on one.

What causes the nothern ligths on earth? The answer he gave them was solarwinds and magnetosphere.

Is that correct cause it just doesn't sound rigth, or is that the eastiest answer to give an 8th grader?
Anonymous Coward
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04/11/2012 11:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Question for all the sun people, my daugther brought home a school paper where the teacher gave them all the answers yet I'm confused on one.

What causes the nothern ligths on earth? The answer he gave them was solarwinds and magnetosphere.

Is that correct cause it just doesn't sound rigth, or is that the eastiest answer to give an 8th grader?
 Quoting: truz1980


[link to image.gsfc.nasa.gov]
shadasonic

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04/11/2012 11:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Severe trailing today mid mo., and very bad physical symptoms(ear tone fluctuations,low level body vibrations)usually signs of a big solar event?
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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04/11/2012 11:48 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm wondering if the rise in the Ionospheric electrons for the past week or so had anything to do with the quake in Indonesia.

[link to www.ips.gov.au]
 Quoting: old guard


LOL, just posted the same thing on EL's thread..
Great minds think alike
Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr




Maybe quakes can influence TEC. I didn't find anything during a brief search to suggest that the converse is true.



General article stating that some studies indicate that elevated TEC can be used a pre-cursor signal to predict earthquake activity. Skeptics abound.

[link to physicsworld.com]


Abstract presenting preliminary results to the EGU in 2011...

"This study may lead to a better understanding of the response of the atmosphere /ionosphere to the Great Tohoku earthquake." Note atmosphere responding to quake not visa versa.

[link to arxiv.org]



Abstract of a peer reviewed article submitted to Geophysical Research Letters...

Two of the key points...

"Positive TEC anomaly appears before M9 class events
The anomaly occurs above the epicenter and lasts ~1 hour"

Note the anomaly lasts only 1 hour.

[link to www.agu.org]


An article submitted to the peer reviewed International Jourmal of Geophysics...

... where they take great pains to separate the solar flare, geomagnetic storm activity and long term variance in TEC (which certainly the daily TEC maps do not) to analyze whether or not ground based phenomena influences TEC prior to earthquake activity. Meaning that they believe that sources of TEC other than those generated by the earth have absolutely nothing to do with earthquake activity.

They believe there are pre-earthquake ground based sources which may. Some of the possible sources they suggest are...

"Recent research into earthquake-associated ionospheric anomalies has been able to show that associations do exist between earthquakes and ionospheric disturbance [3–6]. The precise mechanism(s) is not clear and a number of reasonable theories have been presented as to what may cause earthquake-associated TEC anomalies. These include a number of geochemical processes in the dilatant phase of earthquake preparation such as radon ionization, causing long-living ion clusters in the lower atmosphere [7], the activation of mobile positive holes in the earth’s crust, resulting in strong electric fields and activation of highly mobile electronic charge carriers in rocks near the earth’s surface [8, 9], and the release of CO2 gas [10] which could potentially destroy neutral clusters, resulting in the near ground layer becoming rich in ions [3]. The resultant lower-atmosphere electric field follows geomagnetic field lines into the ionosphere leading to the noted anomalies. Other potential causes are physical such as acoustic gravity waves. One possible cause of these is CO2 gas release creating turbulence in the lower atmosphere and another would be fine vibrations in the earth’s crust associated with earthquake preparation. Whatever the specific cause of these anomalies, researchers have been able to show that in many cases the observed anomalies have been earthquake related [3, 11]."

So they are suggesting numerous possible earth based mechanisms for a rise in TEC but even they do not specifically name which one or how much each might contribute to any specific elevated reading.

[link to www.hindawi.com]


In summary, the sources above would seem to indicate that, if there are anomalous rises in TEC prior to earthquakes, this rise might be very short term (as short as 1 hour as one study suggests). No one is saying TEC causes earthquakes. The studies that are in evidence suggest the exact opposite, that earthquakes might possibly influence TEC. Rise in TEC does not cause earthquakes. Nor the do the daily TEC maps have any predictive ability due to the fact that they do not factor out the backgound and solar induced TEC variations from their graphical data representations.

This is far from an exhaustive study though I'd be surprised (and contrite) to be proved wrong.

Sorry for wandering so far afield from the object of this thread. Luckily one of the articles mentioned solar. Flare on!

--
truz1980

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04/11/2012 11:49 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Question for all the sun people, my daugther brought home a school paper where the teacher gave them all the answers yet I'm confused on one.

What causes the nothern ligths on earth? The answer he gave them was solarwinds and magnetosphere.

Is that correct cause it just doesn't sound rigth, or is that the eastiest answer to give an 8th grader?
 Quoting: truz1980


[link to image.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


Thank you for the wonderful website.hf
Anonymous Coward
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04/11/2012 11:54 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Question for all the sun people, my daugther brought home a school paper where the teacher gave them all the answers yet I'm confused on one.

What causes the nothern ligths on earth? The answer he gave them was solarwinds and magnetosphere.

Is that correct cause it just doesn't sound rigth, or is that the eastiest answer to give an 8th grader?
 Quoting: truz1980


Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun send out charged particles which interact with the Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere. When these charged particles come into the Earth's outer atmosphere - the ionosphere - they interact with molecules there to create light. Since the easiest ways for the particles to enter the Earth's atmosphere is near the magnetic north and south poles, those are the areas that most often experience auroras (auora borealis near the North Pole and aurora australis near the South Pole)

:aurora14feb2012:

and if this charged particles come into the outer atmosphere some of them collide with electrons orbiting the oxygen or nitrogen atoms and knock them up to a higher orbital (energy state). This excitation of the electrons is temporary and the electrons quickly pop back down to a lower orbital giving off energy in the form of photons of visible light as they do so. The resultant glow from a myriad of these interactions is what forms the aurora.


Here you have some nice Auroracams:


Aurorahunter.com

[link to aurorahunters.com]

Aurora Sky Station (Alaska)
[link to www.auroraskystation.com]

Kiruna All-Sky camera (Aurora)
[link to www.irf.se]

AuroraLIve(located Alaska)
[link to salmon.nict.go.jp]

Tromso all-sky camera
[link to polaris.nipr.ac.jp]

Earthcam(Aurora; located Reykjavik)
[link to www.earthcam.com]

AK Aurora cams(huge list)
[link to akweathercams.faa.gov]

AuroraMAX Canada
[link to www.asc-csa.gc.ca]



and if you watched some of the stunning Vids from the ISS...you will maybe noticed this glowing greenish-yellow band just above Earth’s limb

Its called Airglow

What is Airglow?

This light is most visible to the crew of the ISS when it is orbiting over the night side of the planet, and thus is seen in images like the one above. It appears like a thin band because viewing the atmosphere at a shallow angle – rather than directly down through it – increases the airglow layer’s relative visibility.


More:
[link to www.universetoday.com]
Anonymous Coward
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04/11/2012 12:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


...


Hi guys hi

I have been keeping a close eye on this developing new susnpot region as it has rapidly exploded onto the surface today. It looks promising. NOAA should name this Region 11455 sometime later today.
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Heya Tomas,
Damn, looking again at that Magnetogram, looks like an intense buildup!
Interesting....
Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


Here is a gif I made from the SDO magnetogram of this new region as it exploded onto the surface. They don't make it easy here with a 200 kb max for an animated gif..chuckle

:region1455mag:
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Smilie finally approved, so I will move here. tounge
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Closeup vids of the new one's little B-flare this morning...

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

--
truz1980

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04/11/2012 12:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Question for all the sun people, my daugther brought home a school paper where the teacher gave them all the answers yet I'm confused on one.

What causes the nothern ligths on earth? The answer he gave them was solarwinds and magnetosphere.

Is that correct cause it just doesn't sound rigth, or is that the eastiest answer to give an 8th grader?
 Quoting: truz1980


Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun send out charged particles which interact with the Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere. When these charged particles come into the Earth's outer atmosphere - the ionosphere - they interact with molecules there to create light. Since the easiest ways for the particles to enter the Earth's atmosphere is near the magnetic north and south poles, those are the areas that most often experience auroras (auora borealis near the North Pole and aurora australis near the South Pole)

:aurora14feb2012:

and if this charged particles come into the outer atmosphere some of them collide with electrons orbiting the oxygen or nitrogen atoms and knock them up to a higher orbital (energy state). This excitation of the electrons is temporary and the electrons quickly pop back down to a lower orbital giving off energy in the form of photons of visible light as they do so. The resultant glow from a myriad of these interactions is what forms the aurora.


Here you have some nice Auroracams:


Aurorahunter.com

[link to aurorahunters.com]

Aurora Sky Station (Alaska)
[link to www.auroraskystation.com]

Kiruna All-Sky camera (Aurora)
[link to www.irf.se]

AuroraLIve(located Alaska)
[link to salmon.nict.go.jp]

Tromso all-sky camera
[link to polaris.nipr.ac.jp]

Earthcam(Aurora; located Reykjavik)
[link to www.earthcam.com]

AK Aurora cams(huge list)
[link to akweathercams.faa.gov]

AuroraMAX Canada
[link to www.asc-csa.gc.ca]
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Thank you so much, I think you need a job in teaching. I had my daugther read what you wrote and she says you made more sense then the teacher, she learned more from your short answer then the 2 hours they spent talking about it. Also she can't wait to check out some of the cams.hf
Anonymous Coward
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04/11/2012 12:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Wow...im red now hf

But you might wonder if NInz,Tom or Hugh (and all other ppl from sunfamily) had answered to this

Still learning here for myself, around all this great ppl
Hugh M Eye

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04/11/2012 01:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Astronauts and rocket scientists send letter to NASA objecting to the agency's unsubstantiated claims concerning "man-made global climate change".--

March 28, 2012
The Honorable Charles Bolden, Jr.
NASA Administrator
NASA Headquarters
Washington, D.C. 20546-0001
Dear Charlie,
We, the undersigned, respectfully request that NASA and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) refrain from including unproven remarks in public releases and websites. We believe the claims by NASA and GISS, that man-made carbon dioxide is having a catastrophic impact on global climate change are not substantiated, especially when considering thousands of years of empirical data. With hundreds of well-known climate scientists and tens of thousands of other scientists publicly declaring their disbelief in the catastrophic forecasts, coming particularly from the GISS leadership, it is clear that the science is NOT settled.
The unbridled advocacy of CO2 being the major cause of climate change is unbecoming of NASA’s history of making an objective assessment of all available scientific data prior to making decisions or public statements.

View the full letter and list of signatories here:

[link to www.cfact.org]
Anonymous Coward
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04/11/2012 03:15 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Astronauts and rocket scientists send letter to NASA objecting to the agency's unsubstantiated claims concerning "man-made global climate change".--

March 28, 2012
The Honorable Charles Bolden, Jr.
NASA Administrator
NASA Headquarters
Washington, D.C. 20546-0001
Dear Charlie,
We, the undersigned, respectfully request that NASA and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) refrain from including unproven remarks in public releases and websites. We believe the claims by NASA and GISS, that man-made carbon dioxide is having a catastrophic impact on global climate change are not substantiated, especially when considering thousands of years of empirical data. With hundreds of well-known climate scientists and tens of thousands of other scientists publicly declaring their disbelief in the catastrophic forecasts, coming particularly from the GISS leadership, it is clear that the science is NOT settled.
The unbridled advocacy of CO2 being the major cause of climate change is unbecoming of NASA’s history of making an objective assessment of all available scientific data prior to making decisions or public statements.

View the full letter and list of signatories here:

[link to www.cfact.org]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Well shucks. Who ya gonna trust? A bunch of retired astronauts, engineers and administrators not beholding to NASA anymore or the impeccibly principled (who were sued in 2010 for a "...nearly three-year stonewall of access to internal documents exposing an abuse of taxpayer funds to advance the global warming agenda") and totally competent (if you omit "an admission to USA Today’s weather editor that NASA GISS is just a modeling office, using the temperature record of …CRU, the ClimateGate outfit. That means their “independent temperature record” is actually a recapitulation of one that …doesn’t exist, but was withdrawn as a result of ClimateGate when the custodians admitted they actually lost all original data") GISS.

[link to wattsupwiththat.com]

--
Anonymous Coward
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04/11/2012 03:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hehehehe. Load an SDO movie (or check the latest pic)... pretty big (mostly?) far side SE flare that starts around 16:00. It appears to have still been ongoing 2 hours later (probably not, eh?) when the camera nods and the time stamps come seconds apart until images end at 18:00.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Another maneuver evidently, right on time.
EVE Cruciform Maneuver 18:00

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

--
Vesper33
Silver Pools of Light

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04/11/2012 05:31 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Astronauts and rocket scientists send letter to NASA objecting to the agency's unsubstantiated claims concerning "man-made global climate change".--

March 28, 2012
The Honorable Charles Bolden, Jr.
NASA Administrator
NASA Headquarters
Washington, D.C. 20546-0001
Dear Charlie,
We, the undersigned, respectfully request that NASA and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) refrain from including unproven remarks in public releases and websites. We believe the claims by NASA and GISS, that man-made carbon dioxide is having a catastrophic impact on global climate change are not substantiated, especially when considering thousands of years of empirical data. With hundreds of well-known climate scientists and tens of thousands of other scientists publicly declaring their disbelief in the catastrophic forecasts, coming particularly from the GISS leadership, it is clear that the science is NOT settled.
The unbridled advocacy of CO2 being the major cause of climate change is unbecoming of NASA’s history of making an objective assessment of all available scientific data prior to making decisions or public statements.

View the full letter and list of signatories here:

[link to www.cfact.org]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hey Hugh, there was a pinned thread on this last night. Very interesting and refreshing read.
Perfer et Obdura;Dolor hic tibi proderit olim.Fortes Fortuna Iuvat! (Be Patient & Strong; someday this pain will be useful to you. Fortune favors the brave)
joinca

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04/11/2012 06:33 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
New comparison of ocean temperatures reveals rise over the last century
by Staff Writers
San Diego CA (SPX) Apr 04, 2012
Although the Challenger data set covers only some 300 temperature soundings (measurements from the sea surface down to the deep ocean) around the world, the information sets a baseline for temperature change in the world's oceans, which are now sampled continuously through Argo's unprecedented global coverage.
A new study contrasting ocean temperature readings of the 1870s with temperatures of the modern seas reveals an upward trend of global ocean warming spanning at least 100 years.
The research led by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego physical oceanographer Dean Roemmich shows a .33-degree Celsius (.59-degree Fahrenheit) average increase in the upper portions of the ocean to 700 meters (2,300 feet) depth.
The increase was largest at the ocean surface, .59-degree Celsius (1.1-degree Fahrenheit), decreasing to .12-degree Celsius (.22-degree Fahrenheit) at 900 meters (2,950 feet) depth.
The report is the first global comparison of temperature between the historic voyage of HMS Challenger (1872-1876) and modern data obtained by ocean-probing robots now continuously reporting temperatures via the global Argo program. Scientists have previously determined that nearly 90 percent of the excess heat added to Earth's climate system since the 1960s has been stored in the oceans

The full story is here:
[link to www.terradaily.com]
popcorn
Global warming is not man made

Last Edited by joinca on 04/11/2012 06:38 PM
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
Anonymous Coward
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04/11/2012 08:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What was that?
Anonymous Coward
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04/11/2012 08:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: DONT FORGET to look at SOHO - pics!!!

Can anyone tell me what happened? I linked the thread about it, and the soho link is in there. It looks damn scary...
MamaHasAwakened

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04/11/2012 08:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: DONT FORGET to look at SOHO - pics!!!

Can anyone tell me what happened? I linked the thread about it, and the soho link is in there. It looks damn scary...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5240732


bump


Yes!!! Check out C3


bump
belay

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04/11/2012 09:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by belay on 04/11/2012 09:43 PM
shadasonic

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04/11/2012 09:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: DONT FORGET to look at SOHO - pics!!!

Can anyone tell me what happened? I linked the thread about it, and the soho link is in there. It looks damn scary...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5240732


bump


Yes!!! Check out C3


bump
 Quoting: MamaHasAwakened


That looks massive, not pixel issue either. Will look in to this
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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04/11/2012 09:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: DONT FORGET to look at SOHO - pics!!!

Can anyone tell me what happened? I linked the thread about it, and the soho link is in there. It looks damn scary...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5240732


bump


Yes!!! Check out C3


bump
 Quoting: MamaHasAwakened


That looks massive, not pixel issue either. Will look in to this
 Quoting: shadasonic


I'm not sure what's on C3, it's how i've always pictured a GRB looking,its intense
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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04/11/2012 10:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

Thread: DONT FORGET to look at SOHO - pics!!!

Can anyone tell me what happened? I linked the thread about it, and the soho link is in there. It looks damn scary...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5240732


bump


Yes!!! Check out C3


bump
NIP says its an artifact
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NIP says its an artifact
 Quoting: shadasonic


I think NIP is right.

No x-ray event. Nothing obvious on H alpha. Nothing on Cactus yet.

SDO was doing a maneuver today... images end at 18:00, don't return to semi- normal until about 23:00, bad source for info.

The strut in the C3 image is rotated 180. SOHO possibly also calibrating?

Seeds stereo ahead shows a CME starting ~20:24, not earth directed, not big.
[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Seeds stereo behind shows a CME in progress at 23:54 (but cuts out then), not that big, earth directed.
[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Stereo behind shows we might get some of the CME Seeds noted... doesn't look that big.
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] n=50

--
nerdrage88sasr

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04/12/2012 04:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Interesting...
seems things are getting through?

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to pixie.spasci.com]

seems winds are quite strong and density High

[link to spaceweather.com]

Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
nerdrage88sasr

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04/12/2012 04:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
definate increase in Plasma Density, speed and temp
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

everything jumpy

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

And she looks to be on the rise again

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Still rising B5 atm...
Peace

Last Edited by nerdrage88sasr on 04/12/2012 04:47 AM
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
nerdrage88sasr

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm wondering if the rise in the Ionospheric electrons for the past week or so had anything to do with the quake in Indonesia.

[link to www.ips.gov.au]
 Quoting: old guard


LOL, just posted the same thing on EL's thread..
Great minds think alike
Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr




Maybe quakes can influence TEC. I didn't find anything during a brief search to suggest that the converse is true.



General article stating that some studies indicate that elevated TEC can be used a pre-cursor signal to predict earthquake activity. Skeptics abound.

[link to physicsworld.com]


Abstract presenting preliminary results to the EGU in 2011...

"This study may lead to a better understanding of the response of the atmosphere /ionosphere to the Great Tohoku earthquake." Note atmosphere responding to quake not visa versa.

[link to arxiv.org]



Abstract of a peer reviewed article submitted to Geophysical Research Letters...

Two of the key points...

"Positive TEC anomaly appears before M9 class events
The anomaly occurs above the epicenter and lasts ~1 hour"

Note the anomaly lasts only 1 hour.

[link to www.agu.org]


An article submitted to the peer reviewed International Jourmal of Geophysics...

... where they take great pains to separate the solar flare, geomagnetic storm activity and long term variance in TEC (which certainly the daily TEC maps do not) to analyze whether or not ground based phenomena influences TEC prior to earthquake activity. Meaning that they believe that sources of TEC other than those generated by the earth have absolutely nothing to do with earthquake activity.

They believe there are pre-earthquake ground based sources which may. Some of the possible sources they suggest are...

"Recent research into earthquake-associated ionospheric anomalies has been able to show that associations do exist between earthquakes and ionospheric disturbance [3–6]. The precise mechanism(s) is not clear and a number of reasonable theories have been presented as to what may cause earthquake-associated TEC anomalies. These include a number of geochemical processes in the dilatant phase of earthquake preparation such as radon ionization, causing long-living ion clusters in the lower atmosphere [7], the activation of mobile positive holes in the earth’s crust, resulting in strong electric fields and activation of highly mobile electronic charge carriers in rocks near the earth’s surface [8, 9], and the release of CO2 gas [10] which could potentially destroy neutral clusters, resulting in the near ground layer becoming rich in ions [3]. The resultant lower-atmosphere electric field follows geomagnetic field lines into the ionosphere leading to the noted anomalies. Other potential causes are physical such as acoustic gravity waves. One possible cause of these is CO2 gas release creating turbulence in the lower atmosphere and another would be fine vibrations in the earth’s crust associated with earthquake preparation. Whatever the specific cause of these anomalies, researchers have been able to show that in many cases the observed anomalies have been earthquake related [3, 11]."

So they are suggesting numerous possible earth based mechanisms for a rise in TEC but even they do not specifically name which one or how much each might contribute to any specific elevated reading.

[link to www.hindawi.com]


In summary, the sources above would seem to indicate that, if there are anomalous rises in TEC prior to earthquakes, this rise might be very short term (as short as 1 hour as one study suggests). No one is saying TEC causes earthquakes. The studies that are in evidence suggest the exact opposite, that earthquakes might possibly influence TEC. Rise in TEC does not cause earthquakes. Nor the do the daily TEC maps have any predictive ability due to the fact that they do not factor out the backgound and solar induced TEC variations from their graphical data representations.

This is far from an exhaustive study though I'd be surprised (and contrite) to be proved wrong.

Sorry for wandering so far afield from the object of this thread. Luckily one of the articles mentioned solar. Flare on!

--
 Quoting: Varve


Great research Varve!!
interesting theories, i personally believe there is a correlation between TEC counts and EQ's...found it intereting that it may be a rise in TEC levels DUE to volcanic activity....

would mean that volcanic activity is releasing plasma? or maybe that the volcanic release effects the current amount of plasma in the area? Does anyone know any effects that volcanic gases may have on plasma? maybe the gases interact wit hthe plasma and 'super-heat' it, or causes the plasma to react in a different way.....maybe this is a reason why the increased TEC count lasts only an hour or so?

Interesting Varve, cheers mate, some green for you.
Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Veresanctus

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04/12/2012 07:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sooo, what does this mean again?

[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]
GET SAVED: Thread: Are you SAVED from DAMNATION?

"For all the law is fulfilled in one word, even in this; Thou shalt love thy neighbour as thyself. But if ye bite and devour one another, take heed that ye be not consumed one of another.

This I say then, Walk in the Spirit, and ye shall not fulfil the lust of the flesh. For the flesh lusteth against the Spirit, and the Spirit against the flesh: and these are contrary the one to the other: so that ye cannot do the things that ye would. But if ye be led of the Spirit, ye are not under the law.

Now the works of the flesh are manifest, which are these; Adultery, fornication, uncleanness, lasciviousness, Idolatry, witchcraft, hatred, variance, emulations, wrath, strife, seditions, heresies, Envyings, murders, drunkenness, revellings, and such like: of the which I tell you before, as I have also told you in time past, that they which do such things shall not inherit the kingdom of God. But the fruit of the Spirit is love, joy, peace, longsuffering, gentleness, goodness, faith, Meekness, temperance: against such there is no law. And they that are Christ's have crucified the flesh with the affections and lusts.

If we live in the Spirit, let us also walk in the Spirit. Let us not be desirous of vain glory, provoking one another, envying one another." -- Galatians 5:14-26
Anonymous Coward
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04/12/2012 07:57 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
cheers mate
Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


Not much research really Nerd. Just a quick look at the first few pages of a search that included "TEC earthquakes". I just got curious about it and that's what popped up. Thanks for the green and back at ya. It counteracts the red I got for going off topic. Given by, uh, well I'm not sure who gave it, it not being signed... chicken little perhaps, with great intestinal fortitude and the courage of their convictions. Probably make a good politician. Or a banker...lol... just kidding. Don't care.

AR1455 sure has grown a lot again, beautiful spot, looks like a hot air balloon... SDO lmsal has a bunch of vids up...
[link to www.lmsal.com]

One of the latest...
[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

I'm real curious as to what the pair of spots rotating in are going to do... opposite polarities, pretty close together, opposite sides of the equator, interesting arrangement...

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

--
Anonymous Coward
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04/12/2012 08:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Team , have we crossed the plasma ?? I heard a lot of it and was expecting some action from the sun but looks like the sun has turned out to be very quite as well.
nerdrage88sasr

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04/12/2012 10:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
cheers mate
Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


Not much research really Nerd. Just a quick look at the first few pages of a search that included "TEC earthquakes". I just got curious about it and that's what popped up. Thanks for the green and back at ya. It counteracts the red I got for going off topic. Given by, uh, well I'm not sure who gave it, it not being signed... chicken little perhaps, with great intestinal fortitude and the courage of their convictions. Probably make a good politician. Or a banker...lol... just kidding. Don't care.

AR1455 sure has grown a lot again, beautiful spot, looks like a hot air balloon... SDO lmsal has a bunch of vids up...
[link to www.lmsal.com]

One of the latest...
[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

I'm real curious as to what the pair of spots rotating in are going to do... opposite polarities, pretty close together, opposite sides of the equator, interesting arrangement...

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

--
 Quoting: Varve


yep, notice the increase in activity for the past three days..
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Hugh M Eye

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04/12/2012 04:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NOAA forecast: G1 minor geomagnetic storm expected-

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 763
Issue Time: 2012 Apr 12 1946 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2012 Apr 12 1945 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Apr 13 0000 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Boulder K-index at 4-

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Satellite Environment plots:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE solar wind plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

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