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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 14789596
Australia
04/22/2012 01:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ol' Sol has gotta blow soon. Flux a sredy B9.0! Also GOES electrons look like they did 420 one day to late.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5002507


Agree....somethings about to pop
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

hi all, been away for a while, headed away for a week or so again shortly...keep up the good work
Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14830311
India
04/22/2012 01:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ol' Sol has gotta blow soon. Flux a sredy B9.0! Also GOES electrons look like they did 420 one day to late.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5002507


Agree....somethings about to pop
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

hi all, been away for a while, headed away for a week or so again shortly...keep up the good work
Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


Hi nerdrage88sasr. We do miss your contribution. Pls do take care.
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 14789596
Australia
04/22/2012 01:30 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ol' Sol has gotta blow soon. Flux a sredy B9.0! Also GOES electrons look like they did 420 one day to late.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5002507


Agree....somethings about to pop
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

hi all, been away for a while, headed away for a week or so again shortly...keep up the good work
Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


Hi nerdrage88sasr. We do miss your contribution. Pls do take care.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14830311


Thanks India!
HI level of Electrons...
[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 5002507
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04/22/2012 01:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I think NOAA spot numberer took couple days off. They can't keep up can they. Hmmm. Can anyone think what number comes after 1465??? Might need Hugh or Tom with this! LOL Is that another spot over 1459? New2(??) under it. Might be Cynthia McKinney, but dang, looks like a new spot.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 5002507
United States
04/22/2012 10:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey where is everyone? Where's all the bots??
Where's the Lyrid meteors??
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
04/22/2012 10:35 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
good morning everyone!
i finally got my pc working again
yay!
i have missed you all and hope everyone is doing good
and it looks like im back just in time for a good sized flare event

chances of flare from 1459:
62% chance of M flare
57% chance of X flare

chances of flare from 1465:
52% chance of M flare
41% chance of X flare

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
joinca

User ID: 8793176
United States
04/22/2012 11:52 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Welcome back Ninz!!!! We have missed you!!!
Heard that you had computer probs....they are no fun.
hfbanana2alien16bandchorushi

Last Edited by joinca on 04/22/2012 11:53 AM
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
Anonymous Coward
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04/22/2012 12:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Happy to see you Nin !!!

hi
joinca

User ID: 8793176
United States
04/22/2012 12:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Excellent article about the Suns magnetic field reversal.
Approximately every 11 years the magnetic field on the sun reverses completely - the north magnetic pole switches to south, and vice versa. It's as if a bar magnet slowly lost its magnetic field and regained it in the opposite direction, so the positive side becomes the negative side. But, of course, the sun is not a simple bar magnet and the causes of the switch, not to mention the complex tracery of moving magnetic fields throughout the eleven-year cycle, are not easy to map out.
Mapping such fields, however, is a crucial part of understanding how - and, in turn, when - the sun will exercise its next flip. This flip coincides with the greatest solar activity seen on the sun in any given cycle, known as "solar maximum."
[link to www.spacedaily.com]
popcorn
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
MamaHasAwakened

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04/22/2012 12:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sooooo good to see you Nin! You were greatly missed!

hfgrouphugcheersmile_kiss
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14851326
India
04/22/2012 12:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Gr88 to see you Nin . Welcome back.

Also wud like to point out that from last few days we there are lot of sunspots formed which are capable of producing flares but they are not ?? What is your view point?? Have you seen this phenomenom before?? or are we observing for the first time.

Also sometimes the sunspots are decaying when they turn to earth's view/.What is your view?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 5002507
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04/22/2012 12:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Glad your back Nin!
Does aurora ovation get this egg shaped often. Looks like a bad week to be a satellite.
zacksavage
~~Unbound~~

User ID: 14823822
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04/22/2012 01:11 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
good morning everyone!
i finally got my pc working again
yay!
i have missed you all and hope everyone is doing good
and it looks like im back just in time for a good sized flare event

chances of flare from 1459:
62% chance of M flare
57% chance of X flare

chances of flare from 1465:
52% chance of M flare
41% chance of X flare

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


'Bout Time.

rockon


Z
In time we hate that which we often fear.

--- William Shakespeare
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 14823251
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04/22/2012 02:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A C1.8 flare from AR1463 on the SW limb unleashed a large CME today. A giant and beautiful prominence from the eruption can be seen on SDO. There's also another big prominence can be seen near the north pole. Awesome.
:CME4/22:


[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

:4/22 cme:


The CME can be seen on STEREO Ahead and SOHO>

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

H-alpha movie from Big Bear:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Probably not Earth-directed but it can't be ruled out 'til we get more data...stay tuned.
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 14823251
United States
04/22/2012 02:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
good morning everyone!
i finally got my pc working again
yay!
i have missed you all and hope everyone is doing good
and it looks like im back just in time for a good sized flare event

chances of flare from 1459:
62% chance of M flare
57% chance of X flare

chances of flare from 1465:
52% chance of M flare
41% chance of X flare

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


HI, NINz!!! Great to see you post today! Now I know the big flares are comin', haha.

dance smile_kiss5a
Isis7
Voice Chat Moderator

User ID: 14180462
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04/22/2012 03:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Welcome back Nin

thumbs
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 5002507
United States
04/22/2012 05:06 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1459 is a beauty! Looks like loops go out for days!
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 14823251
United States
04/22/2012 05:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1465 has produced a C 2.4 flare.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Photo from Mauna Loa Observatory:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

This is the strongest of 8 C-flares so far today:

[link to www.lmsal.com]
Anonymous Coward
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04/22/2012 06:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Common 2.4 coming from 1465, I think looking at EVE.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 5002507
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04/22/2012 06:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Dang...can't beat ya Hugh! Yet too quick!

=)
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

User ID: 1031150
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04/22/2012 06:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I haven't been around for a while...spring time always has me running...plus we had last week off from work because of tornado damage my workplace...got diagnosed with lyme disease last friday..wtf if it isnt one thing its another..lol...

Been keeping an eye on the sun regardless...some nice looking sunspots hanging around no doubt..ii kinda expected more action out of them...
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 14823251
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04/22/2012 07:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I haven't been around for a while...spring time always has me running...plus we had last week off from work because of tornado damage my workplace...got diagnosed with lyme disease last friday..wtf if it isnt one thing its another..lol...

Been keeping an eye on the sun regardless...some nice looking sunspots hanging around no doubt..ii kinda expected more action out of them...
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


Hey, great to see ya Look'n.hi Sorry to hear about the Lymes and tornadoes. I didn't know that Lymes ranged that far west. What town got the tornado? Anyway, much prayers and healing to ya, sun-friend. Be well.

hiding
tomasgod1

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04/22/2012 07:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
good morning everyone!
i finally got my pc working again
yay!
i have missed you all and hope everyone is doing good
and it looks like im back just in time for a good sized flare event

chances of flare from 1459:
62% chance of M flare
57% chance of X flare

chances of flare from 1465:
52% chance of M flare
41% chance of X flare

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


twirl
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 14823251
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04/22/2012 07:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
At 147, this is the highest Sunspot Number we've seen for at least a couple of months and probably for 2012. When the Behemoth 1429 was menacing us back in early March, the SS # only got up to 86.

UPDATE:Out of curiosity I downloaded the Official SIDC Sunspot Numbers for 2012. And this is by far the largest number. The highest SS# this year was a 95 on Jan. 16th and the lowest was a 09 on Feb. 8th.

AR1463 is leaving us now over the limb, soon to be followed by 1462. By way of correction, the CME I posted about earlier was caused by a filament eruption and seemed to be aided by C-flare from 1463. Originally I incorrectly thought the flare produced the CME; but after reviewing the highlight reels, it seems that the prominence was already on the move before the flare.

SDO/AIA close-up movie of 1463's C1.8 flare coinciding with nearby filament activity:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

As the aforementioned active regions leave the scene, we a new growing region (1466?) in the NE. Also two more active regions are soon coming over the eastern horizon--one in the south and one in the north. The SDO 171a image shows a definite trans-equatorial connection between the two.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 04/22/2012 07:46 PM
Hugh M Eye

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04/22/2012 08:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
At 147, this is the highest Sunspot Number we've seen for at least a couple of months and probably for 2012. When the Behemoth 1429 was menacing us back in early March, the SS # only got up to 86.

UPDATE:Out of curiosity I downloaded the Official SIDC Sunspot Numbers for 2012. And this is by far the largest number. The highest SS# this year was a 95 on Jan. 16th and the lowest was a 09 on Feb. 8th.

AR1463 is leaving us now over the limb, soon to be followed by 1462. By way of correction, the CME I posted about earlier was caused by a filament eruption and seemed to be aided by C-flare from 1463. Originally I incorrectly thought the flare produced the CME; but after reviewing the highlight reels, it seems that the prominence was already on the move before the flare.

SDO/AIA close-up movie of 1463's C1.8 flare coinciding with nearby filament activity:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

As the aforementioned active regions leave the scene, we a new growing region (1466?) in the NE. Also two more active regions are soon coming over the eastern horizon--one in the south and one in the north. The SDO 171a image shows a definite trans-equatorial connection between the two.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


SUNSPOT NUMBER-UPDATE II: Out of curiosity (again) I went back to check the Sunspot Numbers for 2011. The highest Sunspot Number for 2011 was a 136 on October 21st. Only 30 times did the SS# reach triple-digits. This makes Friday's number of 162 a new high for Solar Cycle 24! I only wish we had some big flares to match.

5ahiding5a
Vesper33
Silver Pools of Light

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04/22/2012 08:11 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey Nin!!! So glad you are back, everyone missed you, even us lurkers!!! hf
Perfer et Obdura;Dolor hic tibi proderit olim.Fortes Fortuna Iuvat! (Be Patient & Strong; someday this pain will be useful to you. Fortune favors the brave)
Hugh M Eye

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04/22/2012 08:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
TO HELL WITH SUNSPOT NUMBERS! - UPDATE III

From SIDC's Official Numbers for Oct. 18-24, 2011-

20111018 2011.795 109 73 36
20111019 2011.797 99 61 38
20111020 2011.800 128 83 45
20111021 2011.803 136 90 46
20111022 2011.806 122 87 35
20111023 2011.808 94 77 17
20111024 2011.811 91 79 12

Spaceweather.com's SS# for Oct 21 is 207! WTF? Do they just make up these numbers and then change them later? Yep, so it seems. I knew I recalled a 200 number at some point, that's why I went back and checked the records; and I was puzzled to find 136 as the highest number for 2011. So.....wtf
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

CONCLUSION:These sunspot numbers are a load of horseshit! Firstly, it's an arcane and convoluted formula which only makes sense a few Belgian know-it-alls (these guys still do quaint pencil sketches at their telescopes just like Mr. Carrington in the 1850's).
Secondly, these numbers take no account of the far-side half of the Sun. (off-topic-I think that far-side acoustic imaging is crock, too).
Thirdly, these traditional dogmas and catechisms only occasionally reflect the true activity of the Sun. How many large spots have gone quietly across the sun's face with nary a spark or two. And sometimes a small region produces an M-flare unexpectedly.
Now, I've gotta headache and I blame the Belgians!

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 04/22/2012 08:39 PM
Spittin'Cesium

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United Kingdom
04/22/2012 08:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Arr.

Filamentssssssss: [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Wierdness on the North-East of the Disc: [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

1459 go Boom yet?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
MamaHasAwakened

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04/22/2012 08:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I haven't been around for a while...spring time always has me running...plus we had last week off from work because of tornado damage my workplace...got diagnosed with lyme disease last friday..wtf if it isnt one thing its another..lol...

Been keeping an eye on the sun regardless...some nice looking sunspots hanging around no doubt..ii kinda expected more action out of them...
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


HI Look N,
Sorry to hear about all of that! Hope it is not too painful for you! Sending good thoughts your way!
I have been watching that x ray flux chart too, waiting for some big flares. I keep thinking they are gonna come anytime now! Hmmmm!
Hope you feel better soon!
shadasonic

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04/22/2012 09:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This looked interesting [link to www.iris.edu]
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan

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