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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
joinca

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04/23/2012 04:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
April 23, 2012
The sun looks like this:
[link to img526.imageshack.us]

but the magnetic field lines on the sun look like this:
[link to img72.imageshack.us]
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
Anonymous Coward
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04/23/2012 04:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Glad to see there was a CME hitting today, I was wondering what all that pressure in my head was!
Anonymous Coward
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04/23/2012 06:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like electric companies too cocky to harden the grid lol!
[link to www.businessinsider.com]
Hugh M Eye

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04/23/2012 06:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like electric companies too cocky to harden the grid lol!
[link to www.businessinsider.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14848978

It's unsinkable!....Like the Titanic and Fukushima Daiichi.

drevil
old guard

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04/23/2012 06:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks Hugh for all you do!!!
hf
amywood71605

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04/23/2012 06:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.softservenews.com]

This shows the Kp at 6. Love this thread..thanks for all of you who contribute so much to it!
"Live each day like it's your last, love like you've never been hurt, and dance like no one is watching."
Anonymous Coward
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04/23/2012 06:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solarimg shows Bz pegged all the way south! This normal with nothing much hitting us??
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 4051890


Haven't you heard? We're seeing the impact from a CME originating in the southern solar hemisphere, hence the negative Bz.

Scroll down on this page a look at the Fok Ring Current--it's really charging up.

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Holy FOK! That looks pretty! My bad Hugh, I looked on NOAA site first. You know I get mucho better info here!
Thanks man!!!(or alien???) LOL
Hugh M Eye

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04/23/2012 06:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.softservenews.com]

This shows the Kp at 6. Love this thread..thanks for all of you who contribute so much to it!
 Quoting: amywood71605

Nice! Thanks for the update, amywood.hf

Too bad the weather is nasty here in the Northeast. I hope Ninzrez is watching.
Hugh M Eye

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04/23/2012 07:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
DOH! Dept.: The new spotless region which produced the C2 flare isn't new at all; it's our old friend 1461 (of M-flare fame). I checked all the usual charts and it was erased from memory and quietly buried-at-sea.

CME UPDATE:Today's CME wasn't produced by the C-flare @ 1461, but by an eruption on the western limb (probably 1463) around the same time. I'm still puzzled by it's appearance on both STEREO A & B, unless we're looking at two separate events. SOHO could've settled the matter but it hasn't updated in 7 hours. There are still 4 or 5 large filaments in the south and a couple in the north that we have to keep an eye on.....so be vigilant, Suntards.
:cme4/23:

STEREO Ahead:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO Behind:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Todays impact of CME(s):I'm sticking with my observation of two events or waves of solar plasma. Here's two screenshots from the Magnetopause Cygnet model-
06:20UTC
:magpause620:

18:48 UTC
:magpause1848:

NOAA UPDATE!:

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 193
Issue Time: 2012 Apr 23 2221 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Apr 23 2230 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Apr 24 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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04/23/2012 07:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Wish they come to Georgia! Clear skys. Temp. mid-50's dropping quick, 30mph winds past day or two. Big changes in weather...?
Hugh M Eye

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04/23/2012 07:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Geomagnetic indicators to follow this storm-

SOHO density graph looks like a bumpy road today:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

GOES Electron flux plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

HAARP Magnetometer:

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

NOAA Geomagnetic K-Indices:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA's Magnetopause Simulation for the last 24-hrs.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Magnetosphere & Ionosphere cygnet models:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

IT's days like today that I really miss the Japanese NICT simulation.
tissue
Hugh M Eye

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04/23/2012 08:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CASSINI Probe discovers 500 new objects in Saturn's F-Ring.


[link to www.youtube.com]

If you can't hear the mumbling scientist check out this page w/subtitles and article---NASA press release here:

[link to www.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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04/23/2012 08:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks Hugh for all you do!!!
hf
 Quoting: old guard


Yes Hugh Thank you hf
Hugh M Eye

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04/23/2012 09:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks Hugh for all you do!!!
hf
 Quoting: old guard


Yes Hugh Thank you hf
 Quoting: TS66


Thank you, too, Truthseeker! hfhfSkies have cleared here in S. Jersey, shouldn't you be out lookin' for the aurora in NY? Are you upstate or near Metropolis? Only time I seen aurora was up near Elmira, NY back in '91 or '92. Hope the skies are clearing for you, too.
Hugh M Eye

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04/23/2012 09:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks Hugh for all you do!!!
hf
 Quoting: old guard

Sorry, OG, I missed your post earlier.rockon Thanks for your support, buddy! The weather turned dreary so my chores got put on hold today and I'm tryin' to keep the flame alive for our missing Solar Comrades NINz, IWTB, and T-god, etc. We all appreciate you and the other regulars as well as the lurkers (we know you're out there NOAA,lol).
The usual aurora-cams are too far north (where the sun doesn't set nowadays), so we're relying on amateur sky-watchers to record this storm tonight. Anyone in the northern tier of USA and southern Canada should take pics and post them here or on YouTube. If you have clear skies anywhere, you should check out the young crescent Moon, Venus, Mars, and Saturn tonight. There's also a chance of a passing fireball. I'm anticipating a strong flare soon from the Sun.
shadasonic

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04/23/2012 09:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Many magnetometer readings suggest we got two separate waves today. I'm not sure if it was only CME effects or other factors, such as Co-rotating Interaction Region or sector-boundary crossings. I need one of Lockheed's supercomputers (and a 6 million dollar budget) to keep track of everything going on, LOL.

MAGNETOMETER ASSORTMENT PACK:

HAARP, Gakona, AK:
[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

Kiruna Observatory, Sweden:
[link to www.irf.se]

West Greenland:
[link to flux.phys.uit.no]
Moscow, Ru:
[link to forecast.izmiran.ru]

Boulder, CO:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES weather satellite:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Here's the stackplot page from the University of Tromso Geophysical Observatory in Norway; you can customize all the plots from Norway, Finland, and Greenland.
[link to flux.phys.uit.no]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


You do a great job of keeping track of everything Hugh, and I didn't realize how much is going on.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
amywood71605

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04/23/2012 10:09 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.softservenews.com]

This shows the Kp at 6. Love this thread..thanks for all of you who contribute so much to it!
 Quoting: amywood71605

Nice! Thanks for the update, amywood.hf

Too bad the weather is nasty here in the Northeast. I hope Ninzrez is watching.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I know..been rainy for the last few days (I'm in Vermont).
"Live each day like it's your last, love like you've never been hurt, and dance like no one is watching."
Hugh M Eye

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04/23/2012 10:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WOW! NOAA Alert for K index of 7 meaning G3 Storm or greater! This is quite unexpected by the experts (SIDC said K5 maximum today)--

Space Weather Message Code: WARK07
Serial Number: 37
Issue Time: 2012 Apr 24 0204 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Valid From: 2012 Apr 24 0205 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Apr 24 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G3 or greater - Strong to Extreme

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Oregon......IT's ON!
5abanana25abanana25a5a
amywood71605

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04/23/2012 10:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WOW! NOAA Alert for K index of 7 meaning G3 Storm or greater! This is quite unexpected by the experts (SIDC said K5 maximum today)--

Space Weather Message Code: WARK07
Serial Number: 37
Issue Time: 2012 Apr 24 0204 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Valid From: 2012 Apr 24 0205 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Apr 24 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G3 or greater - Strong to Extreme

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Oregon......IT's ON!
5abanana25abanana25a5a
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Clear here! haha didnt realize it ( I work 3rd shift..had slept a bit more from 7pm til 10) but its very clear here now. Hoping for a good show when I leave for work in half an hour..or maybe on one of my breaks.......good luck to everyone else!
"Live each day like it's your last, love like you've never been hurt, and dance like no one is watching."
OVRANALYZE

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04/23/2012 10:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WOW! NOAA Alert for K index of 7 meaning G3 Storm or greater! This is quite unexpected by the experts (SIDC said K5 maximum today)--

Space Weather Message Code: WARK07
Serial Number: 37
Issue Time: 2012 Apr 24 0204 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Valid From: 2012 Apr 24 0205 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Apr 24 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G3 or greater - Strong to Extreme

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Oregon......IT's ON!
5abanana25abanana25a5a
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


i was just noticing this too. these things always seem to strike hardest when they are not expected to produce much.
Anonymous Coward
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04/23/2012 10:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
That was nice of you to call 'dem experts Hugh!!!
Heck the way I figure we don't know much about our own planet... How we gonna know about the sun. This site nails it better than most them er...experts!
Thank for keeping us suntard boneheads informed!
joinca

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04/24/2012 12:02 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Commentary: $63 million Russian taxi rides by Arnaud De Borchgrave Washington (UPI) Apr 19, 2012
The space shuttle Discovery flying piggyback on a Boeing 747 for its last hurrah flight around the Washington Monument and the White House was a grim reminder of misplaced and misspent priorities.
The storied 30-year space shuttle program, which began with the launch of Columbia, April 12, 1981, ended last July, when Atlantis landed back on Earth. Since then the price of a Russian taxi ride to reach the International Space Station aboard Soyuz spacecraft has skyrocketed from $55.8 million per seat with a guarantee of no less than six trips to 12 roundtrips for $753 million, or $63 million per seat, in 2013-14.
[link to www.spacewar.com]
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
Hugh M Eye

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04/24/2012 12:04 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I was gonna predict a stronger than expected disturbance when the CME occurred; just due to the fact that we haven't seen a CME from the Southern hemisphere in a long time. But my past predictions seemed alarmist and NASA/NOAA said "possible glancing blow" as usual. I've been pretty busy w/other pursuits lately and have left the predictions to the psychics and so-called "experts". I shoulda gone with my gut-feeling and I'd be hailed as a GLP prophet....or nailed as a GLP messiah, lol.

I WILL PREDICT.....in two days we'll all have forgotten about this! Haha.

The Norwegian line of magnetometers range from a K= 3 to a K= 8 (at Dombas)- that's quite a spread.

[link to flux.phys.uit.no]

NOAA's Geomagnetic Indices:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE SW data shows a big spike in velocity and temp:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Real-Time Bowshock Model:

[link to pixie.spasci.com]

Aurora Forecast-Extreme++:

[link to www.gi.alaska.edu]

Ovation Auroral Oval:

[link to helios.swpc.noaa.gov]

POES Auroral Oval:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Canadian Space Agency Auroral Oval (Note:link won't work cuz it's https, so you have to copy and paste into browser):

[link to cssdp.ca (secure)]

And for the real nerds and TEC-freaks, here's the link to all the Real-time Ionospheric Irregularity models....enjoy!

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
MamaHasAwakened

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04/24/2012 12:09 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I was gonna predict a stronger than expected disturbance when the CME occurred; just due to the fact that we haven't seen a CME from the Southern hemisphere in a long time. But my past predictions seemed alarmist and NASA/NOAA said "possible glancing blow" as usual. I've been pretty busy w/other pursuits lately and have left the predictions to the psychics and so-called "experts". I shoulda gone with my gut-feeling and I'd be hailed as a GLP prophet....or nailed as a GLP messiah, lol.

I WILL PREDICT.....in two days we'll all have forgotten about this! Haha.

The Norwegian line of magnetometers range from a K= 3 to a K= 8 (at Dombas)- that's quite a spread.

[link to flux.phys.uit.no]

NOAA's Geomagnetic Indices:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE SW data shows a big spike in velocity and temp:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Real-Time Bowshock Model:

[link to pixie.spasci.com]

Aurora Forecast-Extreme++:

[link to www.gi.alaska.edu]

Ovation Auroral Oval:

[link to helios.swpc.noaa.gov]

POES Auroral Oval:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Canadian Space Agency Auroral Oval (Note:link won't work cuz it's https, so you have to copy and paste into browser):

[link to cssdp.ca (secure)]

And for the real nerds and TEC-freaks, here's the link to all the Real-time Ionospheric Irregularity models....enjoy!

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hugh, you are too funny!

Always go with your gut!

Thanks for all you do in keeping us informed and entertained!

chuckle
Hugh M Eye

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04/24/2012 01:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I shoulda posted this earlier, but here's the SEEDS STEREO A CME movie from 4/19. We can see 2 or 3 separate impulses of ejected plasma which was what impacted us today. All were from the southern hemisphere.

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

I'm still not sure where today's new CME came from. Now that the SOHO data is in (finally!) it looks to me like a 360- degree halo CME aimed directly at Earth. A CME was seen on STEREO A & B at the same time. NASA however seems to think it was directed off the west limb. What do you think? To me it looks like SOHO is staring right into the barrel of a shotgun.....Bullseye Earth.

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]
Anonymous Coward
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04/24/2012 01:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Dang, raise the shields captain, temp and speed big jumping! What hit us this time??
Anonymous Coward
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04/24/2012 05:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks Hugh for all you do!!!
hf
 Quoting: old guard


Yes Hugh Thank you hf
 Quoting: TS66


Thank you, too, Truthseeker! hfhfSkies have cleared here in S. Jersey, shouldn't you be out lookin' for the aurora in NY? Are you upstate or near Metropolis? Only time I seen aurora was up near Elmira, NY back in '91 or '92. Hope the skies are clearing for you, too.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I'm right on the base of the Taconics/Berkshires very rural, and it's been raining/overcast all week. I'd be really upset, but we needed this rain desperately.

I'm thinking this maximum may give us some great opportunities yet hf
NasaLies

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04/24/2012 06:00 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Anonymous Coward
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04/24/2012 06:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A new C3.7 flare this morning @ 7:45:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
from unnumbered region N12E83 just rising from the west: [link to www.lmsal.com]

Which resulted in a Type 2 radio emission warning:

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Apr 24 0748 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1029 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

According to NOAA @ 22:00 on 4/23:
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 active regions on the disk, with 5
regions having sunspots. The spotted regions on the disk all
remained rather quiet and stable throughout the period. However,
around plage Region 1461 (N10W19), two C-class events were observed
today with associated Earth directed CMEs.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Still in the midst of a K5 storm:
[link to www.solarham.com]

and warning extended until noon:
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 767
Valid From: 2012 Apr 23 1725 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Apr 24 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

There is a 30% chance of an M class flare today, and storm prediction from NOAA:

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/40
Minor storm 15/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/40/50
Minor storm 30/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/05/10
amywood71605

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04/24/2012 08:01 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just wanted to share: Last night I went in to work...got there at about 10:45pm....when I stepped out of my vehicle and looked up in the sky it was beautiful! Probably the 4th time I've seen the northern lights, but by far the best. I'm in Northern Vermont.
"Live each day like it's your last, love like you've never been hurt, and dance like no one is watching."

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