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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
zacksavage
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05/06/2012 02:35 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hey Zack :)
all the flares we see from 1476 are indeed earth directed right now
this will be the case the entire time 1476 is on the earth facing side of the sun
as for any CMEs that come off of 1476's area, we are more prone for a direct hit as 1476 moves into the center area of the sun (from our view)
but, there could be a earth directed CME from 1476 at any time while its in the earth facing side
becuase it all depends on the direction of ejection

right now 1476 is off to the eastern side (left) and if there is a CME right now that ejects off to the right (from our view) then it could be earth directed

something to keep an eye on with this large sunspot, thats for sure :)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12844841


Well thank you kindly for setting me straight. I'm trying, but still slow on the Sun throttle.

Eyes wide open though :)


Z
In time we hate that which we often fear.

--- William Shakespeare
shadasonic

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05/06/2012 02:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hey Zack :)
all the flares we see from 1476 are indeed earth directed right now
this will be the case the entire time 1476 is on the earth facing side of the sun
as for any CMEs that come off of 1476's area, we are more prone for a direct hit as 1476 moves into the center area of the sun (from our view)
but, there could be a earth directed CME from 1476 at any time while its in the earth facing side
becuase it all depends on the direction of ejection

right now 1476 is off to the eastern side (left) and if there is a CME right now that ejects off to the right (from our view) then it could be earth directed

something to keep an eye on with this large sunspot, thats for sure :)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12844841


Well thank you kindly for setting me straight. I'm trying, but still slow on the Sun throttle.

Eyes wide open though :)


Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


You do an excellent job and this thread has been an incredible source of info for everyone. I've got this thread on quick dial for now!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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05/06/2012 03:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
right now, 1476 has a 60% chance of a M flare & a 63% chance for a X flare
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

-Ninzrez
Hugh M Eye

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05/06/2012 03:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sky & Telescope has a good article about solar photography (with or w/o telescope)-

Skygazers across much of the globe can look forward to two upcoming astronomy events: May 20th’s annular eclipse of the Sun and the June 5th/6th transit of Venus. We'll be posting a lot more information about these sky events in the weeks to come. If you're planning to photograph either or both of them, I strongly encourage you to use this time to practice your techniques, so you'll be ready to rock 'n' roll when the Moon and then Venus cross the Sun's fiery disk. Here are some pointers. .(snip)

[link to www.skyandtelescope.com]

I also found this interesting discussion of magnetospheres and plasma sheaths from an "electric universe" perspective from Thunderbolts.info:

[link to www.thunderbolts.info]
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

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05/06/2012 04:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just got back in town from Roger Waters "The Wall" concert and seen 1476 is fix'n to light things up...been a long dry spell..ready for some action....and if Roger Waters brings his show close to ya go check it out..it is the best stage show i have ever seen...and the message is so GLP..fuck it was great!!!!
Vesper33
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05/06/2012 04:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just got back in town from Roger Waters "The Wall" concert and seen 1476 is fix'n to light things up...been a long dry spell..ready for some action....and if Roger Waters brings his show close to ya go check it out..it is the best stage show i have ever seen...and the message is so GLP..fuck it was great!!!!
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


My nephew lives in Tulsa and he went to the concert too. Small world. One of my favorite songs is "Wish you were here". Hope he comes close to North Alabama, would love to see him.

Yep, I think this is going to be a busy week with solar issues.
Perfer et Obdura;Dolor hic tibi proderit olim.Fortes Fortuna Iuvat! (Be Patient & Strong; someday this pain will be useful to you. Fortune favors the brave)
Anonymous Coward
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05/06/2012 05:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
right now, 1476 has a 60% chance of a M flare & a 63% chance for a X flare
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

-Ninzrez
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12844841


hiding So glad to be back home before it all swings back into high gear ... I have absolutely no desire to be on an airplane during an X, or during a huge geo storm !!
Anonymous Coward
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05/06/2012 06:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A Closer Look At Sunspot 1476
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
shadasonic

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05/06/2012 08:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A Closer Look At Sunspot 1476
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12844841

The solar alerts site has nict. sim. on it, man I miss that page
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Spittin'Cesium

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05/06/2012 08:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey all : )

It's all going off,flare-wise!

here is an interesting article some of you may find of use: [link to www.sciencenews.org]

Quote:

'The blinking of a distant star may be chronicled in an ancient Egyptian calendar created more than 3,000 years ago to distinguish lucky days from unlucky ones.

Known today as the Demon Star, the three-star system Algol sparkles in the constellation Perseus, near the eye of Medusa’s severed head. Observers on Earth can see Algol twinkling when the two closest members of the system eclipse one another: Every 2.867 days, as the dimmer star crosses between Earth and the brighter star, the Demon Star’s light appears snuffed'.

[link to www.sciencenews.org]
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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05/06/2012 08:58 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Watch it!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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05/06/2012 09:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Pretty Fireworks: [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Lots of Plasma : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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05/06/2012 10:22 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This is quite a long low C Flare,so-far: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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05/06/2012 10:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
That thing is gonna pop off an X5 flare, its teetering.
Anonymous Coward
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05/06/2012 10:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Moving up

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

small time c3.3 max
zacksavage
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05/06/2012 10:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Moving up

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

small time c3.3 max
 Quoting: finley


Still appears to be going up finley.

Interesting.

###Edit###
Damn, looks like I jinks it.


Z

Last Edited by zacksavage on 05/06/2012 10:57 PM
In time we hate that which we often fear.

--- William Shakespeare
Spittin'Cesium

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05/06/2012 11:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Twas,afterall a C7.1: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

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05/06/2012 11:15 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just got back in town from Roger Waters "The Wall" concert and seen 1476 is fix'n to light things up...been a long dry spell..ready for some action....and if Roger Waters brings his show close to ya go check it out..it is the best stage show i have ever seen...and the message is so GLP..fuck it was great!!!!
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


Thanks for the report. Where did ya see the show? Kansas City? No offense intended, but driving from Jersey to Colorado....thank God, I'm not in Kansas anymore (it's huge state), haha. Absolutely beautiful state, tho, Kansas. Who the hell owns all of that land....Monsanto? I drove right by the new proposed Level IV Bioweapons Lab (and "Agro-defense") facility. It was sandwiched between two cattle ranches and half the worlds grain....insanity!

A nice C 7.1 from 1476. Without SOHO, we'll have to be extra vigilant in regards to Coronal Mass Ejections. Also keeep an eye on 1471; I think she's jealous of the attention given to the "Monster of '76".

Here's the close-up movie of the last M-flare:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

GONG H-alpha movie of C7.1 flare:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

No signs of a CME so far, the disturbance predicted for today hasn't materialized yet. Either it's late or that one missed us.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
zacksavage
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05/06/2012 11:27 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey Hugh and Spittin,...

Sun is rocking steady today it would seem.

Thanks for all your info. Makes it easy for me.

:]


Z
In time we hate that which we often fear.

--- William Shakespeare
Hugh M Eye

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05/06/2012 11:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey Hugh and Spittin,...

Sun is rocking steady today it would seem.

Thanks for all your info. Makes it easy for me.

:]


Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


Hey, Zack, what're ya doin' on Sunday, May 20th? I was thinkin' of going to Albuequerque for the annular eclipse. Where you at in NM (my favorite state....that I've been to)? Maybe we could hang out and watch the solar show and share a beer or two, eh? Say "hello" to the Zuni tribe for me.

bikebeer2
zacksavage
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05/06/2012 11:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey, Zack, what're ya doin' on Sunday, May 20th? I was thinkin' of going to Albuequerque for the annular eclipse. Where you at in NM (my favorite state....that I've been to)? Maybe we could hang out and watch the solar show and share a beer or two, eh? Say "hello" to the Zuni tribe for me.

bikebeer2
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Well Hugh,...I'll have to get back to you on that. I may be in the woods/wilderness working. I'll know more Wed.

I am in Silver City, working the Gila.

I have made everyone here aware of the big day, and they are all looking forward to the big show.

Take care man, gotta run.


Z
In time we hate that which we often fear.

--- William Shakespeare
Hugh M Eye

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05/07/2012 01:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Seems that AR1476 is still growing. NOAA has it 760 millionths; almost double of yesterday's official size and is now classified as Beta-Gamma. It sure is a whopper!
:1476growing:

:Product: Solar Region Summary
:Issued: 2012 May 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 128 Issued at 0030Z on 07 May 2012
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 06 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 06/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1469 S26W90 333 0040 Cso 03 02 Beta
1470 S15W43 286 0030 Cro 06 05 Beta
1471 S19W36 279 0210 Dao 05 08 Beta
1474 N13E17 226 0010 Hrx 01 03 Alpha
1475 N05E25 217 0005 Axx 01 01 Alpha
1476 N10E63 188 0760 Fhi 16 25 Beta-Gamma
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 06/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
1472 S28W52 296

SIDC latest bulletin:

SIDC URSIGRAM 20506
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 06 May 2012, 1153UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 06 May 2012 until 08 May 2012)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 May 2012 10CM FLUX: 122 / AP: 001
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 May 2012 10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 May 2012 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 022
COMMENT: Solar activity is likely to reach active levels with risks of
M class flares from NOAA AR 1476 (Catania 25) during the next 48 hours,
and C class flares from NOAA ARs 1470 and 1471. AR 1476 produces 3
moderate M flares during the last 24 hours, the strongest being a M1.4
flare (on May 5th, 13:23 UT peak time). LASCO data are currently not
available, but some off-disk signatures of CMEs were observed on the
East limb (not associated with AR 1476). Geomagnetic activity is
expected to reach active conditions level by May 8th as a coronal hole
becomes geoeffective. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

AR1476 is not camera shy--Spaceweather.com has some great amateur pics of Sunspot group 1476.

[link to www.spaceweather.com]
Anonymous Coward
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05/07/2012 01:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Seems that AR1476 is still growing. NOAA has it 760 millionths; almost double of yesterday's official size and is now classified as Beta-Gamma. It sure is a whopper!
:1476growing:

:Product: Solar Region Summary
:Issued: 2012 May 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 128 Issued at 0030Z on 07 May 2012
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 06 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 06/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1469 S26W90 333 0040 Cso 03 02 Beta
1470 S15W43 286 0030 Cro 06 05 Beta
1471 S19W36 279 0210 Dao 05 08 Beta
1474 N13E17 226 0010 Hrx 01 03 Alpha
1475 N05E25 217 0005 Axx 01 01 Alpha
1476 N10E63 188 0760 Fhi 16 25 Beta-Gamma
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 06/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
1472 S28W52 296

SIDC latest bulletin:

SIDC URSIGRAM 20506
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 06 May 2012, 1153UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 06 May 2012 until 08 May 2012)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 May 2012 10CM FLUX: 122 / AP: 001
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 May 2012 10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 May 2012 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 022
COMMENT: Solar activity is likely to reach active levels with risks of
M class flares from NOAA AR 1476 (Catania 25) during the next 48 hours,
and C class flares from NOAA ARs 1470 and 1471. AR 1476 produces 3
moderate M flares during the last 24 hours, the strongest being a M1.4
flare (on May 5th, 13:23 UT peak time). LASCO data are currently not
available, but some off-disk signatures of CMEs were observed on the
East limb (not associated with AR 1476). Geomagnetic activity is
expected to reach active conditions level by May 8th as a coronal hole
becomes geoeffective. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

AR1476 is not camera shy--Spaceweather.com has some great amateur pics of Sunspot group 1476.

[link to www.spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

This is becoming a larger threat by the hour
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

User ID: 1031150
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05/07/2012 05:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just got back in town from Roger Waters "The Wall" concert and seen 1476 is fix'n to light things up...been a long dry spell..ready for some action....and if Roger Waters brings his show close to ya go check it out..it is the best stage show i have ever seen...and the message is so GLP..fuck it was great!!!!
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


Thanks for the report. Where did ya see the show? Kansas City? No offense intended, but driving from Jersey to Colorado....thank God, I'm not in Kansas anymore (it's huge state), haha. Absolutely beautiful state, tho, Kansas. Who the hell owns all of that land....Monsanto? I drove right by the new proposed Level IV Bioweapons Lab (and "Agro-defense") facility. It was sandwiched between two cattle ranches and half the worlds grain....insanity!

A nice C 7.1 from 1476. Without SOHO, we'll have to be extra vigilant in regards to Coronal Mass Ejections. Also keeep an eye on 1471; I think she's jealous of the attention given to the "Monster of '76".

Here's the close-up movie of the last M-flare:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

GONG H-alpha movie of C7.1 flare:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

No signs of a CME so far, the disturbance predicted for today hasn't materialized yet. Either it's late or that one missed us.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


LOL....a big state full of a whole bunch of nothingness...lol...it is a long oldrive from east to west...boring no doubt..we went to tulsa and watched the show....
Anonymous Coward
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05/07/2012 07:09 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Rising fast right now, almost in the M range
Anonymous Coward
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05/07/2012 07:28 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Rising fast right now, almost in the M range
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
Anonymous Coward
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05/07/2012 07:59 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There is a 70% chance for an M, 5% for an X today & tomorrow from 1476 today according to Spaceweather.

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

Personally, I believe we are due for an X, and 1476 looks like just the beta~gamma SS with the chutzpah to produce it.

Good morning. hf
old guard

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05/07/2012 08:13 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
K index is rising

proton density at 6.0

[solarham]
Anonymous Coward
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05/07/2012 08:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This sunspot is not dangerous and will decay quickly. It will remain quit.100% confident
Anonymous Coward
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05/07/2012 08:35 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
THIS TIME the neutrinos are going to mutate. 100% confident.

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