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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 15388345
United States
05/08/2012 11:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
K index has reached 5 (Storm level) in Tromso & Dombas, Norway:

[link to flux.phys.uit.no]

Kiruna, Sweden Magnetometer very disturbed:

[link to www.irf.se]

GOES Satellite Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Electron Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Real-time Magnetopause & Bowshock simulation:

[link to pixie.spasci.com]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 15388345
United States
05/09/2012 12:07 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
X-FLARE OR BUST! Monster sunspot 1476 almost too big for a smilie!
:1476color:

Currently, geomagnetic conditions still unsettled; Planetary K-index remains at 4:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA Magnetospheric, Ionospheric, and Fok Ring Current models:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

NASA Magnetopause Model (look for a shock at 18:20 UTC & 22:00 UTC):

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14733798
United States
05/09/2012 12:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks Hugh.

Wow I miss the nict at times like this. Your links helped though.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1540313
United States
05/09/2012 12:30 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
X-FLARE OR BUST! Monster sunspot 1476 almost too big for a smilie!
:1476color:

Currently, geomagnetic conditions still unsettled; Planetary K-index remains at 4:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA Magnetospheric, Ionospheric, and Fok Ring Current models:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

NASA Magnetopause Model (look for a shock at 18:20 UTC & 22:00 UTC):

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hey there Hugh- like the old/new me? I love this hair-do- and I get bad Karma for it all the time, some rednecks think this is really a pix of me, LOL!

I am looking foreward to more sun action, I keep watching.cool2
Thanks for posting.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 15763960
India
05/09/2012 12:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Do you think the X-ray data is falsified as well? big sunspot and occassionally giving out a M flare 1 per day?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 2159872
United States
05/09/2012 01:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
density just spiked
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 11142943
Canada
05/09/2012 01:34 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Extremely bright Northern Lights right now in Winnipeg. I wish my camera was charged so I could take a pic and put it on here. Definately brighter here than I can recall ever seeing from inside the city limits.
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 15541907
Australia
05/09/2012 01:42 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
im back, going through missed data
Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Vesper33
Silver Pools of Light

User ID: 5245441
United States
05/09/2012 01:56 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
im back, going through missed data
Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


Glad you are back! You are always missed!! :)
Perfer et Obdura;Dolor hic tibi proderit olim.Fortes Fortuna Iuvat! (Be Patient & Strong; someday this pain will be useful to you. Fortune favors the brave)
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 15388345
United States
05/09/2012 04:14 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Extremely bright Northern Lights right now in Winnipeg. I wish my camera was charged so I could take a pic and put it on here. Definately brighter here than I can recall ever seeing from inside the city limits.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11142943


im back, going through missed data
Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


Git dem pics, AC! And welcome home NerdRagecheers After a brief study of 1476, I believe that it looks bigger than the "Behemoth 1429" but much more tame. Although I still think an X-flare is possible, I don't see the magnetic volatility and twisted loops that 1429 had (remember it's backwards polarity?). The longer we wait, tho, the bigger the outburst....maybe. It's very polite so far for a spot that huge. Stay alert, Suntards, these things can change at a moments notice.

SDO/HMI Magnetic Field Image:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

As it stands, we still have a large coronal hole and 2 more incoming CMEs. If Tomasgod's polarity theory holds true, at least the one CME should carry a negative polarity (Bz South) and if it mixes with a high-speed coronal hole wind-stream, we could see a significant magnetic storm (and hopefully low-latitude aurora) in the next 48 hours. I have no idea where the second CME came from due to data gaps all-around yesterday. If it was also from the southern hemisphere we could see a strong and persistent event. As usual, we'll have to sit and wait for it. I also miss the NICT visualization....it's sad to lose something so cool. I'm just thankful that they retrieved SOHO from NOHO-land, lol.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1924
Issue Time: 2012 May 09 0556 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1923
Valid From: 2012 May 08 2208 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 May 09 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 15541907
Australia
05/09/2012 04:35 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This ones gonna be nasty
its building
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Peace

Last Edited by nerdrage88sasr on 05/09/2012 05:06 AM
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 15774724
India
05/09/2012 07:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This ones gonna be nasty
its building
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


its started decay. 100%quite sunspot & 100% confident it wont flare
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

User ID: 14719344
United States
05/09/2012 07:13 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ok they letting us see the 8th but 5 days missing

[link to stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu]
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 15541907
Australia
05/09/2012 08:31 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M1.4 atm
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Peace

Edit-- M2 and climbing...M3.7...M4.6...

Peaked at M4.7...dropped to M4.2 now

Last Edited by nerdrage88sasr on 05/09/2012 08:35 AM
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
WingnAPrayer

User ID: 4808727
United States
05/09/2012 08:34 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ummm Hi guys- Pretty big M goin up right now!! Wow- same time as yesterday morning, go figure rockonrockonrockonrockonrockon
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 15671082
United States
05/09/2012 08:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nice .....

looks like 1476 again [link to lasp.colorado.edu]

1455 continues to impress.
WingnAPrayer

User ID: 4808727
United States
05/09/2012 08:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like the Spirit of '76 got a BGD configuration: Wonder if that means more spirit comin?

1476 N11E35 181 940 17 FKC 33 BGD
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 15671082
United States
05/09/2012 08:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This is a good reference for sunspot classification definitions.

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

beta-gamma-delta: A sunspot group of beta-gamma magnetic classification but containing one (or more) delta spot(s).

The more complex the sunspot ...........
BloodyT3CH

User ID: 2148885
Lithuania
05/09/2012 10:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Climbing [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Religion is the biggest joke i've ever seen

- ME
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

User ID: 1528083
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05/09/2012 10:09 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Did either of the last two M-flares have CME`s associated with them??
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

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05/09/2012 10:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another M and climbing
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
United States
05/09/2012 10:11 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M1.8
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

User ID: 1528083
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05/09/2012 10:12 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: BloodyT3CH


Gonna spit out a big SOB here pretty soon
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
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05/09/2012 10:34 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
woohooo things heating up now
2 M flares today so far

M4.7 & M1.8 Solar Flare from Monster Sunspot 1476 - May 9, 2012
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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05/09/2012 10:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: BloodyT3CH


Gonna spit out a big SOB here pretty soon
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


Agreed hiding
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
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05/09/2012 10:42 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I wouldn't be surprised if we see an X-flare in the next day or so.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 15388345
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05/09/2012 10:52 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
woohooo things heating up now
2 M flares today so far

M4.7 & M1.8 Solar Flare from Monster Sunspot 1476 - May 9, 2012
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Whenever I go to sleep, the S hits the F. I was watchin' all night the B's and C's. Well now it's showtime for Mr. '76er. It sure looks like a CME in the H-alpha movie from Cerro Tololo:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Looks like a couple of waves going by us now:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Boulder K-index now at 4.5:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1925
Issue Time: 2012 May 09 1156 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1924
Valid From: 2012 May 08 2208 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 May 09 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 15783417
India
05/09/2012 11:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
woohooo things heating up now
2 M flares today so far

M4.7 & M1.8 Solar Flare from Monster Sunspot 1476 - May 9, 2012
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Nothing is heating up. 2 small flares. will not flare from now on. confidence 100%
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
United States
05/09/2012 11:12 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
College K-index peaked at 6.5 and is now down to 5.0.

This is from the CME from a few days ago finally hitting us, right?
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
United States
05/09/2012 11:19 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The CME's that 1476 are spewing, will they be earth directed as in head on or glancing?
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

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