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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14733798
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05/09/2012 12:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks Hugh.

Wow I miss the nict at times like this. Your links helped though.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1540313
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05/09/2012 12:30 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
X-FLARE OR BUST! Monster sunspot 1476 almost too big for a smilie!
:1476color:

Currently, geomagnetic conditions still unsettled; Planetary K-index remains at 4:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA Magnetospheric, Ionospheric, and Fok Ring Current models:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

NASA Magnetopause Model (look for a shock at 18:20 UTC & 22:00 UTC):

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hey there Hugh- like the old/new me? I love this hair-do- and I get bad Karma for it all the time, some rednecks think this is really a pix of me, LOL!

I am looking foreward to more sun action, I keep watching.cool2
Thanks for posting.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 15763960
India
05/09/2012 12:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Do you think the X-ray data is falsified as well? big sunspot and occassionally giving out a M flare 1 per day?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 2159872
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05/09/2012 01:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
density just spiked
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 11142943
Canada
05/09/2012 01:34 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Extremely bright Northern Lights right now in Winnipeg. I wish my camera was charged so I could take a pic and put it on here. Definately brighter here than I can recall ever seeing from inside the city limits.
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 15541907
Australia
05/09/2012 01:42 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
im back, going through missed data
Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Vesper33
Silver Pools of Light

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05/09/2012 01:56 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
im back, going through missed data
Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


Glad you are back! You are always missed!! :)
Perfer et Obdura;Dolor hic tibi proderit olim.Fortes Fortuna Iuvat! (Be Patient & Strong; someday this pain will be useful to you. Fortune favors the brave)
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 15388345
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05/09/2012 04:14 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Extremely bright Northern Lights right now in Winnipeg. I wish my camera was charged so I could take a pic and put it on here. Definately brighter here than I can recall ever seeing from inside the city limits.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11142943


im back, going through missed data
Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


Git dem pics, AC! And welcome home NerdRagecheers After a brief study of 1476, I believe that it looks bigger than the "Behemoth 1429" but much more tame. Although I still think an X-flare is possible, I don't see the magnetic volatility and twisted loops that 1429 had (remember it's backwards polarity?). The longer we wait, tho, the bigger the outburst....maybe. It's very polite so far for a spot that huge. Stay alert, Suntards, these things can change at a moments notice.

SDO/HMI Magnetic Field Image:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

As it stands, we still have a large coronal hole and 2 more incoming CMEs. If Tomasgod's polarity theory holds true, at least the one CME should carry a negative polarity (Bz South) and if it mixes with a high-speed coronal hole wind-stream, we could see a significant magnetic storm (and hopefully low-latitude aurora) in the next 48 hours. I have no idea where the second CME came from due to data gaps all-around yesterday. If it was also from the southern hemisphere we could see a strong and persistent event. As usual, we'll have to sit and wait for it. I also miss the NICT visualization....it's sad to lose something so cool. I'm just thankful that they retrieved SOHO from NOHO-land, lol.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1924
Issue Time: 2012 May 09 0556 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1923
Valid From: 2012 May 08 2208 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 May 09 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 15541907
Australia
05/09/2012 04:35 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This ones gonna be nasty
its building
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Peace

Last Edited by nerdrage88sasr on 05/09/2012 05:06 AM
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 15774724
India
05/09/2012 07:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This ones gonna be nasty
its building
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Peace
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


its started decay. 100%quite sunspot & 100% confident it wont flare
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

User ID: 14719344
United States
05/09/2012 07:13 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ok they letting us see the 8th but 5 days missing

[link to stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu]
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
nerdrage88sasr

User ID: 15541907
Australia
05/09/2012 08:31 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M1.4 atm
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Peace

Edit-- M2 and climbing...M3.7...M4.6...

Peaked at M4.7...dropped to M4.2 now

Last Edited by nerdrage88sasr on 05/09/2012 08:35 AM
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
WingnAPrayer

User ID: 4808727
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05/09/2012 08:34 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ummm Hi guys- Pretty big M goin up right now!! Wow- same time as yesterday morning, go figure rockonrockonrockonrockonrockon
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 15671082
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05/09/2012 08:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nice .....

looks like 1476 again [link to lasp.colorado.edu]

1455 continues to impress.
WingnAPrayer

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05/09/2012 08:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like the Spirit of '76 got a BGD configuration: Wonder if that means more spirit comin?

1476 N11E35 181 940 17 FKC 33 BGD
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 15671082
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05/09/2012 08:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This is a good reference for sunspot classification definitions.

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

beta-gamma-delta: A sunspot group of beta-gamma magnetic classification but containing one (or more) delta spot(s).

The more complex the sunspot ...........
BloodyT3CH

User ID: 2148885
Lithuania
05/09/2012 10:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Climbing [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Religion is the biggest joke i've ever seen

- ME
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

User ID: 1528083
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05/09/2012 10:09 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Did either of the last two M-flares have CME`s associated with them??
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

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05/09/2012 10:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another M and climbing
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
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05/09/2012 10:11 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M1.8
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

User ID: 1528083
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05/09/2012 10:12 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: BloodyT3CH


Gonna spit out a big SOB here pretty soon
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
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05/09/2012 10:34 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
woohooo things heating up now
2 M flares today so far

M4.7 & M1.8 Solar Flare from Monster Sunspot 1476 - May 9, 2012
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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05/09/2012 10:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: BloodyT3CH


Gonna spit out a big SOB here pretty soon
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


Agreed hiding
whiteangel

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05/09/2012 10:42 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I wouldn't be surprised if we see an X-flare in the next day or so.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 15388345
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05/09/2012 10:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
woohooo things heating up now
2 M flares today so far

M4.7 & M1.8 Solar Flare from Monster Sunspot 1476 - May 9, 2012
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Whenever I go to sleep, the S hits the F. I was watchin' all night the B's and C's. Well now it's showtime for Mr. '76er. It sure looks like a CME in the H-alpha movie from Cerro Tololo:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Looks like a couple of waves going by us now:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Boulder K-index now at 4.5:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1925
Issue Time: 2012 May 09 1156 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1924
Valid From: 2012 May 08 2208 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 May 09 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 15783417
India
05/09/2012 11:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
woohooo things heating up now
2 M flares today so far

M4.7 & M1.8 Solar Flare from Monster Sunspot 1476 - May 9, 2012
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Nothing is heating up. 2 small flares. will not flare from now on. confidence 100%
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
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05/09/2012 11:12 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
College K-index peaked at 6.5 and is now down to 5.0.

This is from the CME from a few days ago finally hitting us, right?
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
whiteangel

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05/09/2012 11:19 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The CME's that 1476 are spewing, will they be earth directed as in head on or glancing?
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
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05/09/2012 11:21 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
woohooo things heating up now
2 M flares today so far

M4.7 & M1.8 Solar Flare from Monster Sunspot 1476 - May 9, 2012
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Whenever I go to sleep, the S hits the F. I was watchin' all night the B's and C's. Well now it's showtime for Mr. '76er. It sure looks like a CME in the H-alpha movie from Cerro Tololo:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Looks like a couple of waves going by us now:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Boulder K-index now at 4.5:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1925
Issue Time: 2012 May 09 1156 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1924
Valid From: 2012 May 08 2208 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 May 09 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


1st of all, thank you for the avatar change hahaha
the new one is scary as well, but nothing near what the other one was hahahaha

and yup thats how it goes! haha
like boiling water ^^
Hugh, look at the SDO movies for the 7th through the end of day on the 8th
try looking on the composit 094,335,193
and watch the area between and below 1476 and 1474 !!!!
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
05/09/2012 11:24 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
woohooo things heating up now
2 M flares today so far

M4.7 & M1.8 Solar Flare from Monster Sunspot 1476 - May 9, 2012
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Nothing is heating up. 2 small flares. will not flare from now on. confidence 100%
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15783417


C's are small, M's are moderate, X's are major
with 2 M flares today, that is heating up and those flares are not small
add something productive to the topic or move on please
thanks :)
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?

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