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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
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05/09/2012 11:28 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
College K-index peaked at 6.5 and is now down to 5.0.

This is from the CME from a few days ago finally hitting us, right?
 Quoting: whiteangel


Yes. We wrote about this on our solar blog and there is a "expected events" list on the right hand side that anyone can view at any time to see whats expected and when :)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

there has also been some other events on the sun over the last few days that will be effecting earth, but its hard to report on them with so much data being out at the time of events
When so much data gets lost/blacked out, then were left to a guessing game... it sucks :/

The CME's that 1476 are spewing, will they be earth directed as in head on or glancing?
 Quoting: whiteangel


Any CME that 1476 produces now will be earth directed
it also does depend on direction of ejection
but with 1476 being almost head on right now, if there was a CME right now, it would be hard to miss it

sunearth

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 05/09/2012 11:30 AM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
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05/09/2012 11:38 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
College K-index peaked at 6.5 and is now down to 5.0.

This is from the CME from a few days ago finally hitting us, right?
 Quoting: whiteangel


Yes. We wrote about this on our solar blog and there is a "expected events" list on the right hand side that anyone can view at any time to see whats expected and when :)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

there has also been some other events on the sun over the last few days that will be effecting earth, but its hard to report on them with so much data being out at the time of events
When so much data gets lost/blacked out, then were left to a guessing game... it sucks :/

The CME's that 1476 are spewing, will they be earth directed as in head on or glancing?
 Quoting: whiteangel


Any CME that 1476 produces now will be earth directed
it also does depend on direction of ejection
but with 1476 being almost head on right now, if there was a CME right now, it would be hard to miss it

sunearth
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thank you hon, appreciate it. I have been out of the loop for awhile but thought I read a page or two or 5 (lol) back that we were due for some earth effect soon.

It is a shame "they" are taking away our abilities to monitor things ourselves.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 15388345
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05/09/2012 11:58 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
woohooo things heating up now
2 M flares today so far

M4.7 & M1.8 Solar Flare from Monster Sunspot 1476 - May 9, 2012
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Whenever I go to sleep, the S hits the F. I was watchin' all night the B's and C's. Well now it's showtime for Mr. '76er. It sure looks like a CME in the H-alpha movie from Cerro Tololo:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Looks like a couple of waves going by us now:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Boulder K-index now at 4.5:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1925
Issue Time: 2012 May 09 1156 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1924
Valid From: 2012 May 08 2208 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 May 09 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


1st of all, thank you for the avatar change hahaha
the new one is scary as well, but nothing near what the other one was hahahaha

and yup thats how it goes! haha
like boiling water ^^
Hugh, look at the SDO movies for the 7th through the end of day on the 8th
try looking on the composit 094,335,193
and watch the area between and below 1476 and 1474 !!!!
 Quoting: NiNzrez


What was that? Looked like a tsunami and a volcano. WTF?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1540313
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05/09/2012 02:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
College K-index peaked at 6.5 and is now down to 5.0.

This is from the CME from a few days ago finally hitting us, right?
 Quoting: whiteangel


Yes. We wrote about this on our solar blog and there is a "expected events" list on the right hand side that anyone can view at any time to see whats expected and when :)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

there has also been some other events on the sun over the last few days that will be effecting earth, but its hard to report on them with so much data being out at the time of events
When so much data gets lost/blacked out, then were left to a guessing game... it sucks :/

The CME's that 1476 are spewing, will they be earth directed as in head on or glancing?
 Quoting: whiteangel


Any CME that 1476 produces now will be earth directed
it also does depend on direction of ejection
but with 1476 being almost head on right now, if there was a CME right now, it would be hard to miss it

:sunearth:
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thank you hon, appreciate it. I have been out of the loop for awhile but thought I read a page or two or 5 (lol) back that we were due for some earth effect soon.
Is this pix to scare us?
[link to www.youtube.com]
It is a shame "they" are taking away our abilities to monitor things ourselves.
 Quoting: whiteangel
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1540313
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05/09/2012 02:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
College K-index peaked at 6.5 and is now down to 5.0.

This is from the CME from a few days ago finally hitting us, right?
 Quoting: whiteangel


Yes. We wrote about this on our solar blog and there is a "expected events" list on the right hand side that anyone can view at any time to see whats expected and when :)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

there has also been some other events on the sun over the last few days that will be effecting earth, but its hard to report on them with so much data being out at the time of events
When so much data gets lost/blacked out, then were left to a guessing game... it sucks :/

The CME's that 1476 are spewing, will they be earth directed as in head on or glancing?
 Quoting: whiteangel


Any CME that 1476 produces now will be earth directed
it also does depend on direction of ejection
but with 1476 being almost head on right now, if there was a CME right now, it would be hard to miss it

:sunearth:
 Quoting: NiNzrez

[link to www.youtube.com]
Duck and cover!! or jump in a hole.
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 15388345
United States
05/09/2012 03:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I guess they're still having problems at SOHO. Only 10 images on the C2 since it came back from vacation and none for today. STEREO Ahead hasn't updated since 7:54 UTC. This is a serious setback for CME detection and forecasting, especially with the Monster '76 turned toward Earth. Git your bunkers ready.

Close-up movie of M4.7 flare:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
hiding
RS
User ID: 14774849
Brazil
05/09/2012 03:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
College K-index peaked at 6.5 and is now down to 5.0.

This is from the CME from a few days ago finally hitting us, right?
 Quoting: whiteangel


Yes. We wrote about this on our solar blog and there is a "expected events" list on the right hand side that anyone can view at any time to see whats expected and when :)
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

there has also been some other events on the sun over the last few days that will be effecting earth, but its hard to report on them with so much data being out at the time of events
When so much data gets lost/blacked out, then were left to a guessing game... it sucks :/

The CME's that 1476 are spewing, will they be earth directed as in head on or glancing?
 Quoting: whiteangel


Any CME that 1476 produces now will be earth directed
it also does depend on direction of ejection
but with 1476 being almost head on right now, if there was a CME right now, it would be hard to miss it

:sunearth:
 Quoting: NiNzrez


bump
Anonymous Coward
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05/09/2012 03:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I guess they're still having problems at SOHO. Only 10 images on the C2 since it came back from vacation and none for today. STEREO Ahead hasn't updated since 7:54 UTC. This is a serious setback for CME detection and forecasting, especially with the Monster '76 turned toward Earth. Git your bunkers ready.

Close-up movie of M4.7 flare:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hey Hugh, I can't get this to load???
Anonymous Coward
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05/09/2012 03:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
woohooo things heating up now
2 M flares today so far

M4.7 & M1.8 Solar Flare from Monster Sunspot 1476 - May 9, 2012
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Nothing is heating up. 2 small flares. will not flare from now on. confidence 100%
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15783417


Go away and let us enjoy the possiblity of Sun Doom.
Anonymous Coward
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05/09/2012 03:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Xray FLUX rising C.1 currently
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
05/09/2012 04:40 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I guess they're still having problems at SOHO. Only 10 images on the C2 since it came back from vacation and none for today. STEREO Ahead hasn't updated since 7:54 UTC. This is a serious setback for CME detection and forecasting, especially with the Monster '76 turned toward Earth. Git your bunkers ready.

Close-up movie of M4.7 flare:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hey Hugh, I can't get this to load???
 Quoting: SpiderJones


try it with firefox
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
05/09/2012 04:52 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
its going for at least another M
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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05/09/2012 04:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
its going for at least another M
 Quoting: NiNzrez


yup.. it has the potential to be an X flare.
Anonymous Coward
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05/09/2012 04:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C9.1
NiNzrez (OP)

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05/09/2012 04:59 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i just looked over the current magnetogram images and 1476 has potential to produce more very soon
there is currently some good movement within middle of the sunspot group

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 05/09/2012 04:59 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 12844841
United States
05/09/2012 05:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i just looked over the current magnetogram images and 1476 has potential to produce more very soon
there is currently some good movement within middle of the sunspot group
 Quoting: NiNzrez


and here it comes
M2.1 and going fast for the X
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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05/09/2012 05:06 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
another M and going up
Anonymous Coward
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05/09/2012 05:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]


instability in the left side of the sunspot complex, ripple effect could cause more instabilities throughout the sunspot, wouldn'tr surprise me to see an X flare soon.
shadasonic

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05/09/2012 05:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i just looked over the current magnetogram images and 1476 has potential to produce more very soon
there is currently some good movement within middle of the sunspot group
 Quoting: NiNzrez


and here it comes
M2.1 and going fast for the X
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


This guy is volatile, hes going to keep us busy or definitely has the potential to. I'm also looking for a BIG long duration CME soon , possibly from a mid C flare
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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05/09/2012 05:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i just looked over the current magnetogram images and 1476 has potential to produce more very soon
there is currently some good movement within middle of the sunspot group
 Quoting: NiNzrez


and here it comes
M2.1 and going fast for the X
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


This guy is volatile, hes going to keep us busy or definitely has the potential to. I'm also looking for a BIG long duration CME soon , possibly from a mid C flare
 Quoting: shadasonic


This may be the one Gabes goats have been so worried about!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Starwind

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05/09/2012 05:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I haven't seen this graphic have a hot spot like that in a while.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
shadasonic

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05/09/2012 05:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I haven't seen this graphic have a hot spot like that in a while.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Starwind


Good catch starwind, lets see what its got
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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05/09/2012 05:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I haven't seen this graphic have a hot spot like that in a while.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Starwind


Nice, things are sparking up! Looks like a large CME from the latest flaring.

SDO 304a image:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

H-alpha movie from Mauna Loa Observatory:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

I hope they get SOHO straightened out soon.
shadasonic

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05/09/2012 05:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I haven't seen this graphic have a hot spot like that in a while.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Starwind


Nice, things are sparking up! Looks like a large CME from the latest flaring.

SDO 304a image:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

H-alpha movie from Mauna Loa Observatory:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

I hope they get SOHO straightened out soon.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


The clip from the Mauna observ. shows how alive this guy is,so amazing, nerve wracking, and exhilirating. These guys have the potential for critical damage, but you have to marvel at the universe
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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05/09/2012 05:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M 4.1 Flare and CME Plume.
:m4 eve:
:cme plume:
Manetogram-
:magneto-gram:
explosionahhhabomb
Hugh M Eye

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05/09/2012 05:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The last flare also produced a 10cm Radio Burst-

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 537
Issue Time: 2012 May 09 2117 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 May 09 2103 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 May 09 2104 UTC
End Time: 2012 May 09 2104 UTC
Duration: 1 minutes
Peak Flux: 240 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 127 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
RadChick
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05/09/2012 06:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey NINrez I would love to have you on Nuked Radio to talk about this sunspot, would you please email me if you have time tomorrow...12 noon est for about 1/2 an hour.

Thank you! Love your work and your page!

Christinax4@yahoo.com
Anonymous Coward
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05/09/2012 06:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
How many more days will 11476 be facing the earth approx ? > 23539 5/10/12- 23546 5/17/12 9kSE
Anonymous Coward
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05/09/2012 06:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i have the last 2 days problems with the net with my mobile phone
Anonymous Coward
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05/09/2012 06:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I haven't seen this graphic have a hot spot like that in a while.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Starwind


Good catch starwind, lets see what its got
 Quoting: shadasonic


Nice one hf